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Last updated1 minute ago

SHOP·Shopify Inc.

$172.50
-4.02 (-2.28%)
Overnight$176.76+4.26 (+2.47%)
High
$179.20
Open
$174.55
Market Cap
229.19B
52W High
$182.19
Low
$169.99
P. Close
$172.50
P/E
118.87
52W Low
$94.00
Fwd P/E
70.25
DailyIQ Est.
$183.59
Inst. Ownership
28.6%
Short Interest
1.56%
Days to Cover
1.8
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Aug 5, 2026New outlook issued · tone +0.7 vs prior release · 27 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
16
BEARISH
News Sentiment
58
BULLISH
On Oct 13, Shopify reported a fourth‑quarter revenue surge that suggested underlying resilience despite being dwarfed by Coupang’s larger scale, and the company launched a generative AI visual design workspace that could boost merchant adoption. The same day, Shopify also defended itself against a class action lawsuit over consumer data practices, indicating ongoing regulatory scrutiny. On Oct 13, the stock closed at $176.52, down 1.51% and trailing the broader market, after having gained 33.86% over the past month. Analysts projected that the company would release earnings on Nov 3 with an EPS of $0.45 and revenue of $3.74 billion, reflecting year‑over‑year growth of 32.35% and 31.33% respectively. Consensus estimates for the full year projected earnings of $1.89 per share and revenue of $15.19 billion, up 61.54% and 31.46% respectively. These developments highlighted both the company’s growth prospects and the regulatory challenges it faces.
LOW TARGET
$120 -30.4%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$175 +1.6%
31 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$220 +27.5%
24 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$120.00 - $220.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
11/32/12/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$183.59 (+6.4%)
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Application
Exchange
NMS
Country
Canada
Website
shopify.com
Symbol
SHOP
Description
Shopify Inc. is a Canadian technology company empowering businesses of all sizes to establish and manage their online and offline commerce operations across numerous global markets. Its core offering is a comprehensive platform enabling merchants to oversee all aspects of their business, from product and inventory management to order fulfillment and customer relationship building. This platform integrates seamlessly with various sales channels, including online storefronts, physical retail locations, and social media platforms. Shopify also provides essential services like integrated payment processing through Shopify Payments, alongside supplementary offerings such as shipping labels, point-of-sale hardware, and advertising tools to facilitate business growth. Originally incorporated in 2004, the company's value proposition centers on providing a unified and accessible ecosystem for entrepreneurs to launch, scale, and effectively manage their businesses.
84/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
48.1%
Net Margin
10.7%
Revenue CAGR
289.4%
Current Ratio
5.96x
Return on Equity
9.1%
View full financials →
Earnings Summary
Shopify Inc. is a Canadian technology company that empowers businesses of all sizes to establish and manage their online and offline commerce operations across numerous global markets, offering a unified platform that integrates product, inventory, and order management with payment processing, shipping, and advertising tools. Operating in the software‑application sector, Shopify serves as a critical enabler for merchants seeking a seamless omnichannel experience. In the most recent quarters, Shopify’s revenue grew from $2.68 billion in Q2 2025 to $2.84 billion in Q3 2025, a 5.7% increase, while EPS rose from $0.35 to $0.34, slightly below the $0.33794 estimate, indicating a modest earnings miss despite revenue expansion. The company’s Q4 2025 results were a standout, with revenue surging to $3.672 billion versus the $3.072 billion estimate and EPS of $0.46 beating the $0.32903 forecast, reflecting a strong earnings beat in the fourth quarter. Historically, Shopify has posted year‑over‑year revenue growth of 30% in FY 2025, with a pattern of revenue gains even when EPS occasionally falls short of estimates, as seen in Q1 2025 where EPS of $0.25 missed the $0.26171 estimate. This trend underscores a focus on top‑line expansion while navigating margin pressures. Recent news highlights include the October 6 analyst rally, where JPMorgan upgraded Shopify to Overweight and raised its price target to $200, citing accelerated store migrations and a new Canvas design surface as growth drivers; and the October 4 partnership with Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and Coinbase to commit $1 billion in liquidity to the OpenUSD stablecoin, positioning Shopify to strengthen its payment ecosystem.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.26$0.32$0.37$0.43$0.49Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.46 - -
Q2'26$0.41$0.42+2.3%
Q1'26$0.40$0.36-10.0%
Q4'25$0.33$0.46+39.8%
Q3'25$0.34$0.34+0.6%
Q2'25$0.29$0.35+22.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.5B$2.9B$3.2B$3.6B$4.0BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$3.8B - -
Q2'26$3.5B$3.6B+2.0%
Q1'26$3.4B$3.2B-6.7%
Q4'25$3.1B$3.7B+19.5%
Q3'25 - $2.8B -
Q2'25 - $2.7B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

SHOP Stock Snapshot

BEARISH16/100
$176.76+$0.62 (0.4%)
Market cap
229.19B
P/E ratio
118.9
Day range
$169.99 – $179.20
News sentiment
58/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$175.29 (-0.8%)
Consensus
Buy · 57 analysts
52-week range+88.0% off low · -3.0% from high
$94.00$182.19
Price $176.76 DailyIQ Est. $183.59

Momentum has rolled over on Shopify Inc., which is what drives the bearish read. A stock this widely held moves on consensus revisions more than on individual catalysts.

Behaviour On Record

What SHOP's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
48.4% 47th pct
Below its peak
-3.7%
vs 200-day average
+33.0%
Up days (1y)
50%

Shopify Inc. is currently running 48.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against SHOP's own 11 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 47th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 49.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

SHOP is trading -3.7% below its running peak. Across 10 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -32.9%, and the deepest was -81.2% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +33.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 71st percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year SHOP closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 12 years of records, SHOP finished the month higher 5 of 12 times, with a median return of -1.9% and an average of -0.2%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +11.6% on average, its weakest February at -2.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: SHOP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 163 of 2,866 sessions (5.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +15.5% and -10.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, SHOP moved an average of 4.0% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.5% and a largest of -7.7%.

All figures computed from 2,867 daily closes between 2015-05-21 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against SHOP's own 11-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of SHOP's sector?

Shopify Inc. sits in the Software sector, currently ranked 5th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening). Within its narrower Software industry group, SHOP ranks 3rd of 15 tracked industries, weakening.

Sector rank
#5 of 12
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
73
Industry rank
#3 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for SHOP?

CallsPuts

For Shopify Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 2 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.37), with at-the-money implied volatility around 50.0%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±3.7% move by that expiry — a range of about $170.22–$183.30.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
0.37
ATM implied volatility
50.0%
Total open interest
100,211
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±3.7% ($170.22–$183.30)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on SHOP?

Baird most recently reiterated its rating on Shopify Inc. to Outperform on Oct 14, 2026 with a price target of $190 (from $160). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 1 downgrade, a net bearish lean.

Latest action
Baird — Outperform
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
1
Net rating momentum
-1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 14, 2026BairdMaintainedOutperform$160 → $190
Oct 12, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainedNeutral$145 → $158
Oct 6, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$185 → $200
Sep 23, 2026WedbushReiteratedOutperform$176
Sep 11, 2026BernsteinInitiatedOutperform$160
Sep 8, 2026Piper SandlerReiteratedOverweight$172 → $180
Aug 20, 2026RosenblattInitiatedBuy$175
Aug 7, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$144 → $180
Aug 6, 2026Canaccord GenuityMaintainedBuy$145 → $180
Aug 6, 2026DA DavidsonMaintainedBuy$140 → $200
Aug 6, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$130 → $145
Aug 6, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$170 → $180

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Shopify Inc.'s latest earnings release say?

Filed Aug 5, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

New outlook issued
Tone67.9/ 100+0.7 vs prior release
Hedging words0.31per 100 words-0.11 vs prior release
Tone, last 2 releasesScale 50–73

Most important lines

  1. 1

    Shopify achieved 34% revenue growth (33% in constant currency) and 18% free cash flow margins.

  2. 2

    Alongside this momentum, we continue to drive operating leverage, which flowed through to 18% free cash flow margins.

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    “This was a monster quarter: more than 30% growth in GMV AND revenue AND gross profit AND free cash flow,” said Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify.

    New this quarter

Scores describe the release's wording. They are not a forecast.

Read all 27 scored lines →

Peers

SHOP peers

Software - ApplicationMarket cap · today

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

58/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
MODERATELY BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
Analysts highlighted Shopify’s accelerating revenue and profit growth, expanding payments footprint, and AI‑powered commerce tools. The company’s integrations enable third‑party agents to complete purchases via Shop Pay across its merchant base, positioning it as a core infrastructure layer for agentic commerce. This focus suggests Shopify could become a key backbone provider for AI‑driven shopping experiences across multiple platforms, strengthening its long‑term growth narrative.
What did this article say?
Shopify reported a notable fourth‑quarter revenue surge that suggests underlying resilience despite being dwarfed by Coupang’s larger scale. The company’s commerce‑technology platform continues to attract merchants, and its recent launch of a generative AI visual design workspace may boost adoption. Shopify also defended itself against a class action lawsuit over consumer data practices, indicating ongoing regulatory scrutiny. The Q4 performance hints that Shopify’s growth engine remains robust, potentially offsetting concerns about its smaller size relative to Coupang.
What did this article say?
Shopify (SHOP) closed at $176.52, down 1.51% and trailing the broader market. The stock had gained 33.86% over the past month, outperforming its sector and the S&P 500. Analysts project a November 3 earnings release with EPS of $0.45 and revenue of $3.74 billion, reflecting 32.35% and 31.33% growth YoY. Consensus estimates forecast full‑year earnings of $1.89 per share and revenue of $15.19 billion, up 61.54% and 31.46% respectively. The mixed signals suggest a modest negative bias for the near term despite positive long‑term guidance.
What did this article say?
Shopify’s stock, trading near $170.85, has been scrutinized for its high valuation relative to earnings growth. Analysts highlighted a 231.4% share price gain over three years, raising questions about the sustainability of current price levels. New AI‑driven tools such as Canvas and agent integrations are expected to influence future profitability, but the market remains uncertain about their impact. The article compares Shopify’s price‑to‑earnings ratio with other AI‑focused small caps to assess relative valuation. Overall, the piece suggests that the stock may be overvalued given current earnings performance.
What did this article say?
Shopify (SHOP) closed at $170.85 on October 9, marking a 15.2% gain since September 30, 2025. The stock trades at a lower forward P/E of 82x compared to 95x, reflecting faster growth in projected earnings. Analysts have raised revenue forecasts for 2027, supporting the upward price momentum. The lower multiple suggests investors are pricing in stronger earnings growth, reinforcing a positive outlook for the company.
What did this article say?
The article compares Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) with South Korean logistics leader Coupang (NYSE:CPNG), highlighting their differing business models and geographic focus. Shopify supplies merchants worldwide with digital commerce software, while Coupang operates an integrated delivery network and financial services in Asia. The piece evaluates each company’s strengths and market positioning without indicating a material change in Shopify’s outlook. No earnings guidance or corporate action for Shopify is mentioned, leaving the stock’s valuation unchanged. The comparison serves as a general investment consideration rather than a catalyst for price movement.
What did this article say?
Shopify (SHOP) has consistently outperformed earnings estimates in its recent quarters, posting a $0.42 per share profit versus a $0.39 consensus, a 7.69% surprise. The company’s average earnings surprise over the past two quarters stands at 10.10%, reinforcing its track record of beating expectations. Analysts highlight Shopify’s strong Zacks Earnings ESP and solid Zacks Rank as indicators that the earnings-beat streak is likely to continue in the upcoming report.
What did this article say?
Shopify reported a 32% increase in sales for the second quarter of 2026, marking the company’s fifth consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 30%. The robust revenue expansion followed a challenging 2026 sell‑off, suggesting a rebound in merchant activity. Analysts noted the performance could support a modest upside in the stock’s valuation, reflecting confidence in Shopify’s platform resilience. The earnings beat reinforced the company’s growth narrative and positioned it favorably against competitors.
What did this article say?
Shopify announced it would block autonomous AI agents from completing checkout flows across its merchant network, citing concerns over payment risk and system strain. The company also added Ecom NOW same‑day delivery integration for Canadian merchants, broadening its logistics offering. The move limits AI‑driven automation for merchants while simultaneously expanding delivery capabilities, creating a mixed impact on the platform’s growth prospects.
What did this article say?
Shopify’s market performance over the past decade surpassed the broader market by 30.45% annually, yielding an average return of 44.18%. The company’s market capitalization currently stands at $213.62 billion. No new operational or financial developments were disclosed, leaving the company’s trajectory unchanged.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

16
BEARISH
Momentum rank against about 1,000 stocks and ETFs for this timeframe.
Unlock full technicals
Create a free account to access more indicators and deeper timeframe data.
Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership
25 tracked managers · $44.04B combined position · 15 adding, 10 trimming, 0 unchanged (latest 13F filings)
ManagerTrendShares Held% of Co.Position ValueFiled
Vanguard Group Inc▲ Buy50,670,6273.91%$8.16B2026-01-29
FMR LLC (Fidelity)▲ Buy47,175,5183.64%$5.39B2026-08-13
Invesco Ltd.▲ Buy36,570,9292.82%$4.18B2026-08-14
Capital World Investors▲ Buy34,087,5442.63%$3.89B2026-08-12
Baillie Gifford & Co▼ Sell28,403,6002.19%$3.24B2026-08-06
Morgan Stanley▲ Buy25,517,0341.97%$2.91B2026-08-13
Norges Bank▲ Buy16,410,4731.27%$1.87B2026-08-12
JPMorgan Chase & Co▼ Sell15,220,7241.17%$1.74B2026-08-12
Geode Capital Management, LLC▲ Buy14,338,6161.11%$1.67B2026-08-12
Loomis Sayles & Co L P▲ Buy14,408,1861.11%$1.65B2026-08-14
Wellington Management Group LLP▲ Buy11,852,5960.91%$1.35B2026-08-14
Bank of America Corp▲ Buy11,443,0800.88%$1.31B2026-08-14
Goldman Sachs Group Inc▲ Buy10,154,7530.78%$1.16B2026-08-14
AllianceBernstein L.P.▼ Sell7,814,7260.60%$926.98M2026-08-14
Capital Research Global Investors▼ Sell7,491,7010.58%$855.40M2026-08-12
BlackRock, Inc.▼ Sell5,824,9910.45%$665.10M2026-08-07
Polen Capital Management LLC▼ Sell4,577,5240.35%$522.66M2026-08-04
Janus Henderson Group plc▼ Sell4,088,7880.32%$478.89M2026-05-18
Artisan Partners Limited Partnership▼ Sell4,074,0050.31%$465.17M2026-08-13
Susquehanna International Group, LLP▲ Buy3,812,9400.29%$435.36M2026-08-14
Wells Fargo & Company▼ Sell2,866,9600.22%$327.35M2026-08-14
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.▲ Buy2,394,3850.18%$273.39M2026-08-14
Citadel Advisors LLC▲ Buy2,065,0640.16%$235.79M2026-09-02
Marshall Wace, LLP▼ Sell1,633,5170.13%$186.51M2026-08-13
Neuberger Berman Group LLC▲ Buy1,276,8550.10%$145.84M2026-08-13
Q2 2026 flow:23.42M sh bought ($2.68B)14.20M sh sold ($1.63B)net +9.22M sh (+$1.05B)
View full institutional holdings history →
Congressional Trading Activity
6 disclosed trades · ~$182.0K est. traded value · 3 buys, 3 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Jonathan JacksonHouseIL01▼ Sell$50K - $100K2026-01-302026-02-23
Jonathan JacksonHouseIL01▲ Buy$50K - $100K2025-12-082026-01-08
Jonathan JacksonHouseIL01▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-10-082025-11-10
Lisa McClainHouseMI09▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-06-092025-08-13
Rob BresnahanHousePA08▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-04-032025-04-22
Josh GottheimerHouseNJ05▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-02-032025-03-06
View full congressional trading history →

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