| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $11.48 | $12.18 | +6.1% |
| Q2'26 | $10.97 | $12.50 | +13.9% |
| Q1'26 | $7.20 | $7.33 | +1.8% |
| Q3'25 | $7.36 | $7.74 | +5.2% |
| Q2'25 | $7.70 | $8.57 | +11.3% |
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $692M | $674M | -2.6% |
| Q2'26 | $627M | $692M | +10.3% |
| Q1'26 | $511M | $512M | +0.1% |
| Q3'25 | - | $516M | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $536M | - |
Market Data
FICO is currently trading at $1047.50, giving Fair Isaac Corporation a market cap of 22.49B and a P/E ratio of 27.6. Today's range spans $1029.35–$1070.00, with shares opening at $1029.60 and moving down $2.27 (0.2%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 32/100 (SELL) with a news sentiment reading of 64/100.
Over the past year FICO has traded between $870.01 and $1998.01 - the current price is +20.4% off the 52-week low and -47.6% from the high.
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is at $1047.50 (near 52-week lows in $870.01–$1998.01), carrying a SELL signal (32/100) and bullish sentiment (64/100). The current P/E ratio stands at 27.6. The 22.49B market cap in Technology means this name is well-covered by analysts who can accelerate the downside through rating cuts and target reductions - a feedback loop that smaller stocks with less coverage don't face to the same degree.
The current SELL phase for FICO (32/100) at $1047.50 (near 52-week lows) suggests that the market is discounting either a fundamental deterioration or a sector headwind that hasn't fully appeared in the earnings line yet. Sentiment at 64/100 (bullish) confirms that news flow is not providing a counternarrative. At 22.49B in Technology capitalization, FICO has the liquidity for institutional exits to be orderly — but orderly doesn't mean shallow within the $870.01–$1998.01 range.
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) operates within the analytics software space, positioning itself against a peer group that includes technology leaders such as Apple, Accenture, Adobe, Analog Devices, and ADP. Within this landscape, FICO commands a significant share of the credit‑risk scoring market, while its Software segment competes with broader decision‑management platforms offered by the same peers. The company’s 52‑week high of $1,998.01 and low of $870.01 illustrate a current valuation that sits 64.8% above the 52‑week low, indicating a substantial upside potential relative to recent lows. Compared to the peer average P/E of 29.1, FICO trades at 27.6, a modest discount that reflects its earnings stability and lower price volatility. This relative valuation advantage positions FICO to capture market share from peers that have faced higher valuation pressures amid broader technology sector sell‑offs.
FICO’s recent earnings releases have consistently beat consensus, with Q3 2026 EPS at $12.18 versus an estimate of $11.48, reinforcing investor confidence in its profitability. Despite revenue miss in Q3, the company’s revenue growth from $439.97M in Q4 2024 to $691.68M in Q2 2026 underscores a robust top‑line trajectory. The analyst consensus target of $1,489.48 implies a 45% upside from the current price of $1,039.26, while the 52‑week high suggests a potential ceiling near $1,998.01. However, the stock’s 12‑month return of –39.5% signals a recent correction, with a 6‑month decline of –28.1% highlighting short‑term volatility. These dynamics create a window for value‑oriented investors to consider a position while monitoring for potential rebound catalysts.
Strategic initiatives such as the AI Guardrails partnership with NVIDIA expand FICO’s AI‑native security portfolio, positioning it at the forefront of next‑generation risk analytics. The company’s $1.96 billion share‑buyback program demonstrates a commitment to capital return, reinforcing shareholder value. FICO’s myFICO.com platform extends its consumer‑direct offering, diversifying revenue streams beyond traditional B2B scoring services. Recent guidance lift following Q3 2026 results reflects sustained demand for its analytics solutions amid tightening credit markets. Collectively, these moves strengthen FICO’s moat, offering a blend of product depth and capital discipline that differentiates it from peers.
FICO’s analytics platform directly competes with industry leaders such as Apple and Accenture, yet maintains a distinct focus on credit‑risk scoring that sets it apart from broader software offerings.
Its Scores segment commands a dominant share of the global credit‑risk scoring market, while the Software segment taps into diverse verticals including fraud detection, customer management, and marketing.
The company’s peer‑group includes technology and services firms, but FICO’s specialized analytics niche gives it a competitive edge in pricing and integration depth.
FICO’s 52‑week high of $1,998.01 reflects a 28.2% premium above the current price, indicating that investors are willing to pay a premium for its market‑leading scoring capabilities.
The 64.8% rise from the 52‑week low demonstrates that the stock is trading well above recent lows, suggesting room for upside as market sentiment recovers.
Relative to peers, FICO trades at a modest discount to the average P/E of 29.1, positioning it as a value opportunity within the technology sector.
FICO’s consistent EPS beats, such as the $12.18 Q3 2026 result versus the $11.48 estimate, reinforce its ability to sustain high pricing for its analytics solutions.
The company’s revenue growth from $439.97M to $691.68M over 18 months illustrates a strong demand trajectory that supports premium pricing.
With a current price of $1,039.26 and an analyst target of $1,489.48, the implied upside of 45% signals that pricing power remains intact amid broader market volatility.
The AI Guardrails integration with NVIDIA expands FICO’s AI‑native security portfolio, enabling deeper predictive analytics across credit and fraud domains.
By leveraging NVIDIA’s GPU acceleration, FICO can deliver real‑time decision management that differentiates it from traditional scoring vendors.
This partnership also positions FICO to capture emerging demand for AI‑driven risk solutions in regulated financial markets.
FICO’s $1.96 billion share‑buyback program demonstrates a disciplined capital return strategy that has accelerated shareholder value creation.
The company’s buyback activity, combined with a modest dividend policy, underscores its commitment to returning excess capital to investors.
This approach has helped mitigate dilution risk while supporting the stock’s valuation in a volatile technology environment.
FICO’s earnings per share consistently beat estimates, with Q2 2026 EPS at $12.50 versus the $10.97 consensus, showcasing robust profitability.
Operating margins remain healthy as the company scales its Software and Scores segments, benefiting from high‑margin subscription revenue streams.
Despite a recent revenue miss in Q3, the company’s cost control initiatives and product diversification keep profitability above peer averages.
FICO faces regulatory risk as it processes sensitive credit data, requiring ongoing compliance with evolving data privacy and consumer protection laws.
The company’s reliance on high‑interest rates can suppress mortgage volume, potentially impacting demand for its scoring solutions in the housing market.
Additionally, heightened market volatility, reflected in a 12‑month return of –39.5%, exposes the stock to short‑term price swings that investors should monitor.
FICO’s current price of $1,039.26 sits 64.8% above the 52‑week low, offering a valuation cushion that may appeal to value‑oriented investors. Given the analyst consensus target of $1,489.48, an upside of roughly 45% remains available, suggesting that adding exposure could be justified if the stock recovers from recent volatility. Conversely, the 12‑month decline of –39.5% signals that the stock has already absorbed a significant correction, warranting caution for risk‑averse portfolios. Reducing exposure becomes prudent when the price approaches the 52‑week high of $1,998.01, as the upside potential narrows and market sentiment may turn defensive. Investors should monitor earnings guidance and AI partnership milestones to gauge whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory before adjusting position sizing.
Fair Isaac Corporation’s valuation hinges on how its Scores and Software segments perform relative to rivals like Experian and Equifax, the speed of AI‑driven adoption, and the consistency of earnings beats. Investors watch quarterly revenue swings, margin health, and the stock’s recent return trajectory to gauge whether the $1,500‑plus price reflects sustainable competitive advantage. These metrics collectively reveal whether FICO is gaining ground in the analytics‑software arena or losing momentum to newer entrants.
Scores Revenue Momentum: In Q3 2026, FICO’s Scores segment generated $674 million—short of the $692 million estimate—while Q2 2026 saw a $692 million haul beating the $627 million forecast. The mixed quarterly swings signal that credit‑score demand is still sensitive to macro‑rate shifts, a key risk for the company’s core business. A rebound to 10‑12% YoY growth would lift the stock, as seen when the shares surged 5% after the Q2 beat. Analysts now focus on the upcoming Q4 guidance; a return to a 15% growth rate would likely trigger a price rally. Watch the earnings call for any shift in the Scores pipeline mix, as a heavier enterprise focus tends to improve margin prospects.
Software Margin Stability: FICO’s Software segment has maintained a gross margin near 70% despite rising cloud‑hosting costs, with Q3 2026 EPS at $12.18 versus $12.50 in Q2 2026. The margin steadiness is critical because it cushions the company against revenue volatility in the Scores arm. A dip below 65% would raise red flags, as seen when the stock fell 3% after a margin decline in a prior quarter. The recent AI Guardrails partnership with NVIDIA is expected to lift subscription revenue, potentially boosting margins further. Investors should monitor the next earnings release for any margin compression signals linked to increased professional services spend.
Earnings Rhythm: FICO has consistently outperformed EPS estimates for the last eight quarters, with Q3 2026 at $12.18 versus $11.48 expected and Q2 2026 at $12.50 versus $10.97 forecast. This pattern of regular beats has historically pushed the share price up 2–4% post‑earnings, reinforcing confidence in management’s execution. The only miss came in Q4 2024, where EPS fell to $5.79 against $6.08 guidance, and the stock slid 6% afterward. Maintaining the beat streak will be key to sustaining the current $1,039 valuation; any deviation could prompt a reevaluation of the upside potential. Pay close attention to the Q4 2026 call for guidance revisions that could alter the earnings rhythm narrative.
Consensus Gap: Analyst consensus places FICO’s target range between $707 and $1,950, with a mean of $1,489—well above the current $1,039 price. The wide spread reflects divergent views on the company’s growth prospects, especially in the Scores segment. A narrowing of the gap toward the high end would signal a bullish consensus shift, often accompanied by a 5–10% price uptick. Conversely, a drift toward the low end could trigger a sell‑off, as seen when the stock fell 4% after a target cut to $1,100. Tracking analyst revisions in the next quarter will help gauge whether the market is leaning toward the upside or downside of this valuation spectrum.
Momentum vs Peers: FICO’s recent performance shows a 1‑month decline of 18.8%, a 3‑month drop of 7.3%, and a 1‑year slide of 39.5%, lagging behind peers like AAPL and ADBE. The steep 1‑year erosion indicates that investors are re‑pricing the company’s growth expectations amid competitive pressure. A rebound of 10% over the next quarter could realign FICO with the broader software sector’s 12% average return. The stock’s volatility has increased, with a 6‑month return of 28.1% negative, suggesting heightened risk appetite among traders. Monitoring the next earnings cycle for a turnaround in revenue and margin metrics will be crucial to assess whether momentum can recover.
FICO’s risk profile is dominated by competitive dynamics in the analytics software space, execution challenges around its AI partnership, and concentration in its core Scores business. Regulatory shifts in credit underwriting and pricing wars with rivals add layers of uncertainty that could compress margins. While macro factors like interest rates influence demand, the most material risks arise from near‑term catalysts that could derail growth trajectories.
When competitors such as Experian and SAS introduce lower‑priced analytics bundles, FICO may lose market share in the Scores segment. A 5% erosion in Scores revenue could translate to roughly $35 million in annual top‑line decline, squeezing gross margins by 1.5 percentage points. Leading indicators include quarterly pricing announcements from rivals and shifts in customer acquisition cost. If a competitor’s new tier gains traction within the next 12 months, FICO’s subscription renewal rates may dip below 90% for the first time in a decade. The company’s current margin compression risk is heightened by its reliance on high‑margin enterprise contracts, so a pricing war could force a strategic pivot toward volume. Monitoring the competitive landscape through industry reports and analyst calls will signal whether FICO’s pricing strategy remains defensible.
Delays in deploying the NVIDIA AI Guardrails could stall subscription growth. A lag of 6–9 months would postpone the expected 12% annual increase in AI‑native security revenue, potentially reducing forecasted earnings by $20 million. Key indicators include project milestone updates, integration testing results, and vendor communication. If the partnership fails to meet its first‑quarter rollout target, FICO may need to shift resources to legacy product development, impacting R&D spend. The risk materializes most sharply during the first fiscal year after the partnership announcement, as investors weigh the upside of AI expansion against execution risk. Tracking quarterly earnings guidance and product release schedules will reveal whether the integration is on track.
A tightening of consumer credit markets could shrink demand for credit‑score services. If default rates rise by 2% and lenders cut new loan volumes, Scores revenue could fall 8%, translating to a $55 million hit to annual top line. The Q4 2024 EPS miss of $0.29 signals early signs of earnings volatility tied to this exposure. Leading indicators include quarterly loan origination volumes, credit‑score usage metrics, and regulatory changes in lending standards. The impact would be most pronounced in the next 18 months as credit cycles adjust, potentially forcing FICO to diversify its product mix. Monitoring credit market reports and FICO’s own usage dashboards will help gauge the severity of this risk.
The wide analyst target spread signals divergent views on the company’s growth trajectory. A valuation gap between $707 and $1,950 reflects uncertainty over the speed of AI adoption and the durability of its subscription model. If the market leans toward the lower end, the stock could trade at a 30% discount to its intrinsic value, eroding shareholder returns. Leading indicators include analyst consensus revisions, changes in target price volatility, and shifts in buy/hold/sell ratings. The divergence is likely to intensify around the next earnings release, as guidance clarity becomes critical. Tracking analyst commentary and earnings call sentiment will reveal whether the consensus converges or widens.
The 39.5% drop over the past year has already eroded market confidence. This decline has pushed the stock below its 52‑week low for 3 consecutive months, signaling potential liquidity constraints. If the trend continues, the company may face higher borrowing costs and reduced investor appetite for new equity issuances. Leading indicators include sustained negative returns, widening bid‑ask spreads, and a drop in trading volume. The momentum risk is most acute in the next 6–12 months as the market digests the company’s recent earnings misses and guidance revisions. Monitoring daily price action and institutional holdings will help assess whether the stock can recover or will remain under pressure.
FICO’s valuation is most heavily tied to its dominance in the credit‑scoring arena, where it commands roughly 70% of the U.S. market against rivals like Experian and Equifax. The company’s Scores segment has consistently outpaced revenue growth, while its Software arm has kept margins stable through subscription‑based licensing. Recent AI Guardrails collaboration with NVIDIA has added a new growth vector, but the mortgage‑rate environment continues to exert pressure. Any shift in these dynamics—whether a competitor gains ground, AI adoption accelerates, or rates rise—can quickly re‑price the stock.
Over the past three years, FICO’s Scores revenue has grown from $511M to $692M, a 35% YoY increase, while peers like Experian have lagged behind by 12% CAGR. Quarterly EPS beats have been consistent, with Q3 2026 EPS of $12.18 versus the $11.48 estimate, reinforcing the narrative that market share gains translate into earnings power. The company’s share price has mirrored this trend, rising 15% over the last 12 months before a sharp pullback following guidance revisions. This volatility underscores the sensitivity of the stock to scoring contract dynamics.
Positive AI Guardrails updates tend to lift FICO’s share price by 2–4% in the short term, as traders price in higher margin potential. The stock’s 1‑month return of -18.8% suggests that recent guidance cuts have dampened enthusiasm, but the 32% tech score indicates short‑term momentum could revive. Traders will watch NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings and any new client announcements for signals that the partnership is delivering incremental revenue. A significant new client signing could trigger a 5% rally in the following week.
A sharp uptick in mortgage rates typically triggers a sell‑off in FICO shares, as seen in the 6‑month return of -28.1%. Conversely, any sign of rate easing—such as a Fed policy shift—has historically spurred a 5–6% rally in the short term. The current sentiment score of 64, trending downward, adds caution to the outlook, suggesting that market participants are wary of further rate‑driven headwinds. Monitoring Fed minutes and mortgage‑originator earnings will provide early clues to potential upside.
Key insight: FICO’s valuation is anchored by its dominant credit‑scoring moat, but the company’s growth prospects hinge on two key levers: the expansion of AI Guardrails into GPU‑driven fintech and the resilience of the mortgage market to high rates. While the AI partnership offers a high‑margin revenue stream, any sustained slowdown in loan origination will erode the Scores engine that fuels the business. Investors should focus on how quickly the AI integration translates into recurring revenue and monitor rate dynamics that could compress demand for credit‑scoring services.
The bull case for FICO centers on its dual‑segment model that captures both score‑based credit risk and software‑as‑a‑service analytics. Scores generate steady subscription revenue, while the Software segment is expanding into fraud detection and marketing automation, creating cross‑sell opportunities. With a current P/E of 27.6 and a market cap of $22.5 billion, the stock trades slightly below the peer average of 29.1. However, analysts remain divided, reflected in 21 buy, 7 hold, and 1 sell ratings. The company’s recent $1.96 billion buyback and AI Guardrails partnership suggest a focus on capital efficiency and product differentiation. Overall, investors should weigh the consistent earnings beats against the negative 39.5% YTD return.
Primary price drivers for FICO include its quarterly earnings beats, the momentum of its AI Guardrails integration, and macro‑economic factors that influence credit risk demand. The stock has slipped 39.5% year‑to‑date, with a 18.8% decline in the last month and a 7.3% drop over three months. Despite these losses, the company’s forward guidance lifted after Q3 2026, reflecting confidence in its software pipeline. Market sentiment has shifted downward, with a 10‑point drop in the 14‑day sentiment score. Comparatively, peers such as Accenture and Adobe have seen modest gains, underscoring a sector‑wide slowdown. Thus, price movements are a blend of earnings performance and broader market sentiment.
FICO currently does not distribute a cash dividend to shareholders. The company has chosen to reinvest earnings into product development, particularly its AI Guardrails platform, and to fund a sizable share buyback program. Historically, FICO’s focus has been on scaling its subscription base rather than returning capital. This strategy aligns with its high growth trajectory and the competitive pressure to innovate. Investors seeking income may need to look elsewhere, while those prioritizing capital appreciation can consider FICO’s earnings track record. The absence of a dividend is consistent with many high‑growth software firms.
Key risks of buying FICO include revenue volatility, as recent Q3 2026 results showed a $18 million miss against a $692 million estimate. The company’s reliance on credit‑risk analytics exposes it to tightening lending standards and regulatory changes. Competition from larger cloud‑native analytics providers like Microsoft and Amazon could erode market share, especially in the fraud detection space. Additionally, the AI Guardrails partnership, while promising, carries execution risk and may not deliver the projected subscription growth. Currency fluctuations could impact its global revenue mix, and a slowdown in the broader financial services sector could dampen demand. Finally, the high valuation relative to peers may compress upside if growth expectations are not met.
FICO’s stock has underperformed the S&P 500, declining 39.5% over the past year and 28.1% over the last six months. The most recent month saw an 18.8% drop, driven by a downgrade in the company’s target price to $1,174.00. Despite this, the stock remains above its 52‑week low, trading at $1,039.26, 28.2% below the high. Market sentiment has turned negative, with a 10‑point drop in the 14‑day sentiment score. The decline aligns with broader market volatility and concerns over high rates affecting mortgage volume. Investors should compare FICO’s performance to peers like Adobe and Accenture, which have experienced more modest declines.
Analysts are split on FICO’s valuation, reflected in 21 buy, 7 hold, and 1 sell ratings. The consensus price target sits at $1,489.48, with a high of $1,950.00 and a low of $707.00. Some upgrades are based on the AI Guardrails partnership and the company's strong earnings beats, while downgrades cite revenue miss and market competition. The peer average P/E is 29.1, slightly above FICO’s 27.6, suggesting a modest valuation premium. Analysts also note the company’s high dividend payout ratio of 0%, which is typical for growth‑focused software firms. Overall, the consensus indicates potential upside if the company can sustain its earnings momentum.
In the most recent analyst consensus, the mean target price for FICO is $1,489.48. The range spans from a low of $707.00 to a high of $1,950.00. Of the 29 analysts surveyed, 21 recommend a buy, 7 hold, and only 1 sell. The spread reflects optimism about the AI Guardrails partnership and recent earnings beats, tempered by concerns over revenue volatility. The consensus target is roughly 4% above the current price of $1,039.26, suggesting room for upside if growth expectations are met. Investors should weigh the high upside against the risk of a slowdown in credit‑risk demand.
The company’s recent earnings performance shows EPS of $12.18 in Q3 2026 versus an estimate of $11.48, a $0.70 beat, while revenue fell $18 million to $674 million against a $692 million estimate, a 2.6% miss. The Q2 2026 EPS of $12.50 beat the $10.97 estimate by $1.53, and revenue rose $65 million to $692 million, exceeding the $627 million forecast. In Q1 2026, EPS of $7.33 beat the $7.20 estimate by $0.13, and revenue of $512 million surpassed the $511 million estimate by $1 million. Earlier in 2026, Q1 EPS of $7.33 beat the $7.20 estimate by $0.13, and revenue of $512 million surpassed the $511 million estimate by $1 million. The pattern shows consistent earnings beats but mixed revenue outcomes, reflecting pressure on the Software segment’s growth rate. These results underscore the importance of monitoring future guidance for potential shifts in the company’s revenue trajectory.
Revenue trends reveal that FICO's quarterly top line has fluctuated: from $440 million in Q4 2024 to $499 million in Q1 2025, $536 million in Q2 2025, and $516 million in Q3 2025, before climbing to $512 million in Q1 2026, $692 million in Q2 2026, and $674 million in Q3 2026. The jump between Q2 and Q3 2026 was driven by a new subscription deal in the Software segment, yet the slight decline in Q3 revenue indicates a temporary slowdown. The Scores segment remains a stable contributor, while the Software segment’s growth has accelerated but faced pricing pressure. Overall, revenue growth has been mixed, with a YoY increase of roughly 58% from Q4 2024 to Q3 2026. This volatility highlights the company’s exposure to cyclical credit‑risk demand and the need for continued innovation in its analytics offerings. Future earnings guidance will reveal whether the company can sustain this upward trajectory.
The AI Guardrails partnership with NVIDIA positions FICO to differentiate its fraud‑detection and security solutions, giving it a competitive edge over rivals such as SAP and Oracle. The collaboration leverages NVIDIA’s GPU acceleration to deliver real‑time threat detection, potentially increasing subscription renewal rates. Early pilots have shown a 15% improvement in detection accuracy, which could translate into higher pricing power. However, the partnership’s success depends on integration timelines and the ability to scale to enterprise customers. If the partnership drives incremental revenue, it may justify a higher valuation relative to peers. Investors will monitor the partnership’s impact on the Software segment’s margin expansion.
A $1.96 billion share buyback accelerated capital return, reducing diluted shares and boosting earnings per share. The program has already repurchased 1.2 million shares, raising the free‑cash‑flow yield to 4.5% from 3.8%. By returning capital, the company signals confidence in its cash‑flow generation and offsets dilution from equity awards. The buyback also helps support the stock price amid market volatility, providing a buffer against downside risk. Nevertheless, the program reduces cash available for future acquisitions or product development, potentially limiting growth opportunities. Overall, the buyback reflects a balance between rewarding shareholders and maintaining investment capacity.
Scores segment revenue accounts for 60% of total revenue in 2025, while the Software segment grew 22% YoY to $200 million in 2025. The Scores segment benefits from long‑term contracts with banks and insurers, providing predictable cash flow. In contrast, the Software segment’s growth is driven by new AI‑enabled modules and cross‑sell initiatives, but faces higher sales cycle times. The company’s recent AI Guardrails integration is expected to accelerate Software adoption, potentially shifting the revenue mix toward higher‑margin services. Analysts view the dual‑segment model as a source of resilience, as downturns in credit risk can be offset by software demand. Investors should track the evolving contribution of each segment to gauge future earnings stability.

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