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UNP·Union Pacific Corporation

$283.96
-1.12 (-0.39%)
After Hours
High
$292.00
Open
$285.31
Market Cap
169.05B
52W High
$315.99
Low
$282.69
P. Close
$283.96
P/E
23.06
52W Low
$215.43
Fwd P/E
20.14
DailyIQ Est.
$339.65
Inst. Ownership
3.1%
Short Interest
4.66%
Days to Cover
10.8
Technical Score (1D)
45
NEUTRAL
News Sentiment
48
MIXED
Union Pacific’s recent $1.2 billion modernization agreement with Wabtec, announced 140 hours ago, signals a tangible investment in fleet efficiency that could lift freight margins over the next few quarters. The deal’s timing aligns with the company’s broader push to upgrade locomotives, potentially reducing maintenance costs and improving on‑time performance, which analysts view as a modest upside catalyst. A week later, options traders priced a $225 call on September 4 with unusually high implied volatility, indicating market participants expect a significant price move, though the direction remains unclear; this heightened activity follows a series of analyst earnings revisions that have nudged current‑quarter estimates upward. Meanwhile, the proposed merger with Norfolk Southern remains in a hold stance, with regulators still weighing competition and labor concerns, leaving the transaction’s completion—and its projected $1.8 billion revenue and $1 billion cost synergies—uncertain for the next 10 trading days. In the meantime, Zacks upgraded Union Pacific to a Buy rating 310 hours ago, citing robust freight demand and a favorable macro backdrop that could support earnings growth, a sentiment that may temper the impact of merger uncertainty. The company’s dividend declaration of $1.42 per share, announced 362 hours ago, reaffirms its commitment to shareholder returns and provides a predictable cash flow backdrop for investors. Upcoming investor‑relations events—CEO and CFO appearances at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference on September 16 and a virtual fireside chat on September 1—will offer management a platform to discuss quarterly results, capital allocation plans, and any new guidance that could shift expectations. Traders should watch for any updates on the merger’s regulatory status, Wabtec integration progress, and the company’s freight volume trends, as these factors will shape the near‑term valuation narrative.
Earnings Summary
Union Pacific Corporation is a leading U.S. rail transportation provider that moves a broad mix of commodities, from agricultural products and energy resources to industrial materials and intermodal containers, serving as a critical link in the national supply chain. Operating within the railroads sector, the company has long leveraged its extensive network to capture freight demand across the country. In the most recent two quarters, Union Pacific reported EPS of $3.15 in Q2 2025 and $3.01 in Q3 2025, both above analyst expectations of $2.908 and $2.976 respectively, while revenue rose from $6.154 billion to $6.244 billion, indicating a modest acceleration in top‑line growth; the company beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, underscoring a consistent earnings outperformance. Historically, Union Pacific has maintained a steady YoY revenue growth trajectory, with EPS consistently exceeding forecasts in the past year, reflecting disciplined cost management and effective surcharge strategies. The pattern of revenue growth coupled with EPS beats suggests that the company can sustain profitability even as freight volumes fluctuate. Recent news highlights a $91.1 million surplus from fuel surcharges in Q2 2025, the highest among peers, which has bolstered margins and provided a buffer against fuel price volatility; this surplus also supports the company’s upgraded full‑year outlook and has prompted analysts to raise price targets. Looking ahead, investors should watch for any changes in surcharge policy and freight volume guidance in the next earnings release, as these factors will be key to assessing whether the current upside is sustainable and how the pending Union Pacific‑Norfolk Southern merger might accelerate revenue growth and cost synergies.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$2.77$2.96$3.15$3.34$3.53Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$3.44 - -
Q2'26$3.23$3.41+5.5%
Q1'26$2.89$2.93+1.4%
Q4'25$2.90$2.86-1.4%
Q3'25$2.98$3.01+1.1%
Q2'25$2.91$3.15+8.3%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$5.9B$6.2B$6.6B$6.9B$7.2BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$7.0B - -
Q2'26$6.8B$6.9B+1.2%
Q1'26$6.3B$6.2B-0.6%
Q4'25$6.2B$6.1B-1.5%
Q3'25 - $6.2B -
Q2'25 - $6.2B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

UNP Stock Snapshot

HOLD45/100
$283.99+$0.03 (0.0%)
Market cap
169.05B
P/E ratio
23.1
Day range
$282.69 – $292.00
News sentiment
48/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$329.25 (+15.9%)
Consensus
Buy · 33 analysts
52-week range+31.8% off low · -10.1% from high
$215.43$315.99
Price $283.99 DailyIQ Est. $339.65

The setup on Union Pacific Corporation is patient: consolidation, not accumulation or distribution. In Industrials, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into UNP?

RICH

At today's price, Union Pacific Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 16.8% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 7.63% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 11.0% a year, so the market is asking for 5.8 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis UNP looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
16.8%
Historical FCF CAGR
11.0%
Growth gap
+5.8 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
7.63%
Beta
0.70

Behaviour On Record

What UNP's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
18.6% 36th pct
Below its peak
-8.5%
vs 200-day average
+8.6%
Up days (1y)
53%

Union Pacific Corporation is currently running 18.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against UNP's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 36th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 21.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

UNP is trading -8.5% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -15.5%, and the deepest was -39.1% in 2015. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +8.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 65th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year UNP closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 14 years of records, UNP finished the month higher 8 of 14 times, with a median return of +1.1% and an average of -0.1%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.6% on average, its weakest March at -1.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: UNP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 62 of 3,268 sessions (1.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.5% and -6.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, UNP moved an average of 1.3% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -0.7% and a largest of -1.9%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against UNP's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of UNP's sector?

Union Pacific Corporation sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#11 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
10

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for UNP?

CallsPuts

For Union Pacific Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.27), with at-the-money implied volatility around 42.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±3.8% move by that expiry — a range of about $273.64–$295.50.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.27
ATM implied volatility
42.8%
Total open interest
49,159
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±3.8% ($273.64–$295.50)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on UNP?

Baird most recently reiterated its rating on Union Pacific Corporation to Outperform on Jul 27, 2026 with a price target of $344 (from $311). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Baird — Outperform
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Jul 27, 2026BairdMaintainedOutperform$311 → $344
Jul 25, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$286 → $310
Jul 24, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$326 → $349
Jul 24, 2026BMO CapitalMaintainedMarket Perform$285 → $320
Jul 24, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$304 → $334
Jul 24, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$282 → $325
Jul 24, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$289 → $339
Jul 24, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$315 → $350
Jul 24, 2026BenchmarkMaintainedBuy$325 → $335
Jul 24, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$315 → $335
Jul 23, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$301 → $334
Jul 15, 2026BenchmarkMaintainedBuy$300 → $325

UNP Competitive Positioning

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is tracked alongside these names in Railroads on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

UNP is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.