UNP·Union Pacific Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

16.5% 24th pct

Below its peak

-10.1%

vs 200-day average

+6.4%

Up days (1y)

53%

Union Pacific Corporation is currently running 16.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against UNP's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 24th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 21.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

UNP is trading -10.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -15.5%, and the deepest was -39.1% in 2015. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +6.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 56th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year UNP closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, UNP finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +1.7% and an average of -0.2%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.6% on average, its weakest March at -1.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: UNP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 62 of 3,267 sessions (1.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.5% and -6.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, UNP moved an average of 1.3% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -0.7% and a largest of -1.9%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against UNP's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.