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DailyIQ
Last updated4 minutes ago

TOST·Toast, Inc.

$35.16
-0.56 (-1.59%)
Overnight$34.60-0.56 (-1.59%)
High
$34.60
Open
$0.00
Market Cap
20.43B
52W High
$38.64
Low
$34.60
P. Close
$35.16
P/E
37.14
52W Low
$22.25
Fwd P/E
19.88
DailyIQ Est.
$40.31
Inst. Own.
65.6%
Short Interest
6.21%
Days to Cover
4.6
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Nov 3, 2026tone -8.0 vs prior release · 77 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
23
BEARISH
News Sentiment
67
BULLISH
On Nov 5, Ruby Tuesday announced that it would deploy Toast’s enterprise technology across all of its restaurants, including Toast Go® 3 handhelds, Flex 3 terminals and Kitchen Display Systems, with the aim of improving order accuracy, operational efficiency and the overall guest experience. The rollout was described as a move to modernize the chain’s technology stack and position the brand for future growth. On Nov 4, Toast reported a 27 % year‑over‑year increase in recurring gross profit during its third‑quarter 2026 earnings call, and highlighted the launch of AI‑powered agents that cut overtime by 41 % in early tests. That same day, the company also raised its 2026 full‑year outlook, lifting recurring gross profit guidance to 26 % and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $840‑$850 million, citing stronger revenue growth and operational leverage. Additionally on Nov 4, Toast announced that long‑time President and CFO Elena Gomez would step down at the end of 2026 and that Senior Vice President of Finance Michael Senno would assume the CFO role, a transition described as routine and maintaining continuity for the company’s financial strategy. The earnings call noted a 24 % jump in annualized recurring run‑rate to $2.5 billion and a 21 % rise in total active locations to 189,000, with gross payment volume climbing 20 % to $61.8 billion. Toast also outlined plans to extend its platform into international, enterprise and retail markets, signaling a strategic shift toward higher‑margin, scalable services.
LOW TARGET
$25 -28.9%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$39 +10.4%
25 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$45 +28.0%
14 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$25.00 - $45.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
8/18/13/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$40.31 (+14.6%)
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Symbol
TOST
Description
Toast, Inc. provides a comprehensive, cloud-based technology platform tailored for the restaurant industry, primarily within the United States but also expanding internationally. Its core value proposition centers around streamlining restaurant operations through a suite of software solutions. These offerings encompass point-of-sale systems, team management tools, and features for mobile ordering and catering, all designed to enhance efficiency. Toast further strengthens its position by providing back-office tools like xtraCHEF, assisting with accounts payable, inventory management, and recipe costing. Incorporated in 2011 and headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, Toast, Inc. aims to be a key technology partner for restaurants seeking to modernize and optimize their businesses.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
722,971 shares
$23.8M
Niola RossanaPrincipal Accounting Officer
Sell1,128 shares2026-11-03
Vassil JonathanChief Revenue Officer
Option Exercise14,280 shares2026-11-02
Vassil JonathanChief Revenue Officer
Sell1,951 shares2026-11-02
Vassil JonathanChief Revenue Officer
Sell11,061 shares2026-11-02
Vassil JonathanChief Revenue Officer
Sell1,268 shares2026-11-02
80/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
25.9%
Net Margin
5.6%
Revenue CAGR
44.9%
Current Ratio
2.75x
Return on Equity
16.1%
Earnings Summary
In the most recent quarters, Toast delivered revenue of $1.98 billion in Q3 2026, up 21.3 percent year‑over‑year and beating the $1.96 billion consensus estimate, while EPS of $0.37 matched analyst expectations; in Q2 2026 revenue was $1.908 billion, slightly below the $1.909 billion estimate, yet EPS of $0.35608 surpassed the $0.31967 forecast. Compared to the prior two quarters, revenue growth slowed modestly from 23.1 percent in Q3 2025 to 21.3 percent in Q3 2026, and EPS growth accelerated from $0.23 in Q4 2025 to $0.29 in Q1 2026 and then to $0.35608 in Q2 2026, indicating a pattern of earnings outperformance relative to revenue. Historically, Toast has maintained a trajectory of year‑over‑year revenue growth, with a consistent record of beating revenue estimates in the last four quarters while occasionally missing EPS estimates, suggesting that revenue expansion is often accompanied by margin improvements. Recent news highlights a 27 percent rise in recurring gross profit for Q3 2026 driven by enterprise and international markets, a temporary reduction in adjusted EBITDA guidance to $200–$210 million due to seasonal softness, and a pending FTC lawsuit over ROSCA claims that introduces regulatory uncertainty; these developments underscore the company’s focus on profitability while navigating external pressures.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.09$0.17$0.25$0.33$0.41Q4'24Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$0.23 - -
Q3'26$0.26$0.37+44.3%
Q2'26$0.32$0.36+11.4%
Q1'26$0.16$0.29+83.0%
Q4'25$0.13$0.23+77.1%
Q4'24$0.16$0.18+11.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.2B$1.5B$1.7B$1.9B$2.1BQ4'24Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$2.0B - -
Q3'26$2.0B$2.0B-1.6%
Q2'26$1.9B$1.9B-0.0%
Q1'26$1.7B$1.6B-1.9%
Q4'25$1.7B$1.6B-1.2%
Q4'24 - $1.3B -

Market Data

TOST Stock Snapshot

BEARISH23/100
$34.60−$0.56 (1.6%)
Market cap
20.43B
P/E ratio
37.1
Day range
$34.60 – $34.60
News sentiment
67/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$38.81 (+12.2%)
Consensus
Buy · 41 analysts
52-week range+55.5% off low · -10.5% from high
$22.25$38.64
Price $34.60 DailyIQ Est. $40.31

TOST's technical picture is under pressure, with momentum working against price. Sector peers are worth watching - large caps in Technology tend to move together on rotation.

Behaviour On Record

What TOST's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
45.3% 41st pct
Below its peak
-47.1%
vs 200-day average
+21.2%
Up days (1y)
51%

Toast, Inc. is currently running 45.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TOST's own 5 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 41st percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 49.5%.

TOST is trading -47.1% below its running peak. Across 5 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -39.1%, and the deepest was -61.0% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +21.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 80th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year TOST closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 5 sessions into a rising streak.

On November specifically: over 5 years of records, TOST finished the month higher 1 of 5 times, with a median return of -9.5% and an average of -3.8%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +8.2% on average, its weakest September at -7.7%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TOST has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 148 of 1,286 sessions (11.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.9% and -7.9%.

Across the last 4 dated reports on file, TOST moved an average of 6.7% in the session after earnings, closing higher 3 of those 4 times, with a median move of +4.8% and a largest of +11.2%.

All figures computed from 1,287 daily closes between 2021-09-22 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TOST's own 5-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of TOST's sector?

Toast, Inc. sits in the Software sector, currently ranked 11th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging). Within its narrower Software industry group, TOST ranks 13th of 15 tracked industries, lagging.

Sector rank
#11 of 12
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
9
Industry rank
#13 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for TOST?

CallsPuts

For Toast, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-11-20, 14 days out), open interest is tracked across both sides of the chain, with at-the-money implied volatility around 12.5%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±2.4% move by that expiry — a range of about $31.52–$33.10.

ATM implied volatility
12.5%
Total open interest
11
Expected move by 2026-11-20
±2.4% ($31.52–$33.10)

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect TOST to earn?

Analysts expect Toast, Inc. to earn $1.40 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $1.79 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2028, from 2 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Sep 2026$0.37$0.32 to $0.4214$1.97B23
Dec 2026$0.34$0.31 to $0.3914$1.95B23
Mar 2027$0.28$0.27 to $0.293~$1.85B-
Jun 2027$0.36$0.34 to $0.373~$2.38B-
Sep 2027$0.37$0.34 to $0.413~$2.44B-
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$1.40$1.30 to $1.4816$7.47B28
Dec 2027$1.76$1.54 to $2.0016$8.85B28
Dec 2028$1.79$1.68 to $1.902~$11.82B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TOST?

Morgan Stanley most recently reiterated its rating on Toast, Inc. to Overweight on Nov 4, 2026 with a price target of $42 (from $45). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 1 downgrade, a net bearish lean.

Latest action
Morgan Stanley: Overweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
1
Net rating momentum
-1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Nov 4, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$45 → $42
Oct 19, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$39 → $38
Sep 2, 2026BNP ParibasDowngradeOutperform → Neutral$38 → $35
Aug 31, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$36 → $44
Aug 12, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$33 → $39
Aug 10, 2026DA DavidsonMaintainedNeutral$30 → $34
Aug 6, 2026BernsteinMaintainedOutperform$39 → $45
Aug 5, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$34 → $39
Aug 5, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$36 → $39
Aug 5, 2026OppenheimerMaintainedOutperform$36 → $38
Aug 5, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$31 → $36
Aug 5, 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainedMarket Perform$30 → $35

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Toast, Inc.'s latest earnings release say?

Filed Nov 3, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Tone70.5/ 100-8.0 vs prior release
Hedging words0.87per 100 words+0.22 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 50–88

Most important lines

  1. 1

    Total Locations increased 21% to approximately 189,000.

    New this quarter
  2. 2

    Gomez has been at Toast for five and half years; she led the company through its 2021 IPO and has guided Toast through a transformative period of significant growth and profitability.

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    We’ve scaled this business 6x since we IPO’d in 2021, dramatically improved profitability as the business has scaled, and built out the team and product lines to continue to drive durable growth over the long term.

    New this quarter

Peers & ETF holders

TOST peers & ETF holders

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about TOST?

TOST rose 17.2% over the month to Nov 5. News tone held between 40 and 73 from Oct 5 to Oct 22, then dropped to 26 on Oct 26.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 5 to Nov 5
$30$33$35Oct 5: tone 57Oct 6: tone 71Oct 7Oct 8Oct 9: tone 40Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14: tone 56Oct 15: tone 64Oct 16: tone 67Oct 19: tone 58Oct 20: tone 65Oct 21Oct 22: tone 73Oct 23Oct 26: tone 26Oct 27: tone 54Oct 28Oct 29: tone 49Oct 30: tone 47Nov 2: tone 74Nov 3: tone 67Nov 4: tone 55Nov 5: tone 73Oct 5News toneNov 5123
  1. Oct 15 +7.9%same day: Here is What to Know Beyond Why Toast, Inc. (TOST) is a Trending Stock
  2. Nov 2 +4.0%same day: Insights Into Toast (TOST) Q3: Wall Street Projections for Key Metrics
  3. Nov 4 +5.5%same day: Toast Inc (TOST) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Recurring Gross Profit Jumps 27% as Toast ...
Latest stories naming Toast
Ruby Tuesday Selects Toast to Drive Its Next Chapter
Positive76Nov 5 · Yahoo, Business Wire
Toast: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors
Positive82Nov 5 · Yahoo, Motley Fool
Toast (TOST) Names A New Finance Chief, Is It A Bargain?
Negative27Nov 4 · Yahoo, Simply Wall St.
Toast (TOST) Names Michael Senno As CFO To Succeed Elena Gomez
Leans positive56Nov 4 · Yahoo, Simply Wall St.

Technical analysis

How strong is TOST's momentum right now?

On the daily chart TOST ranks at the 23rd percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bearish reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling TOST?

104 of the 185 tracked managers added to TOST in their latest 13F and 75 trimmed. Together they own 65.6% of the company, worth $10.8B. BlackRock and Fidelity alone hold 13.9%.

104adding75trimming6unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of TOST
  1. $1.4B positionAdded 79.4% last quarter
  2. $932.8M positionAdded 5.7% last quarter
  3. $744.0M positionTrimmed 12.6% last quarter
  4. $614.4M positionAdded 9.0% last quarter
  5. $609.4M positionTrimmed 0.7% last quarter
  6. $469.8M positionAdded 66.4% last quarter
  7. $475.0M positionAdded 0.4% last quarter
  8. $474.4M positionAdded 7.9% last quarter
  9. $393.2M positionAdded 9.6% last quarter
  10. $316.9M positionTrimmed 2.3% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading TOST?

1 member of Congress disclosed 1 TOST trade on Jul 8, 2026: 1 buy, about $8.0K in estimated value.

BuysSellsJul
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

Discover more

How has TOST done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 5, TOST returned +23.4%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 4 did better, led by SNOW at +90.8%.

Change since May 5, through Nov 5
−100%0%+100%+200%May 5JunJulAugSepOctNov 5SNOW +90.8%TOST +23.4%ORCL −38.2%