TOST·Toast, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

36.5% 16th pct

Below its peak

-55.7%

vs 200-day average

-1.1%

Up days (1y)

50%

Toast, Inc. is currently running 36.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TOST's own 5 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 16th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 50.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TOST is trading -55.7% below its running peak. Across 4 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -41.5%, and the deepest was -61.0% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -1.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 40th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year TOST closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 5 years of records, TOST finished the month higher 1 of 5 times, with a median return of -11.2% and an average of -7.3%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +8.2% on average, its weakest September at -7.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TOST has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 148 of 1,252 sessions (11.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.9% and -7.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, TOST moved an average of 7.1% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +4.1% and a largest of +11.2%.

All figures computed from 1,253 daily closes between 2021-09-22 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TOST's own 5-year history, not a peer group or index.