DailyIQ
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Sector:Financial ServicesAll sectors
Last updated 11 hours ago

AFL·Aflac Incorporated

$.
+. (+.%)
After Hours
High
$125.70
Open
$124.29
Market Cap
63.86B
52W High
$125.93
Low
$123.75
P. Close
$125.46
P/E
13.78
52W Low
$96.95
Fwd P/E
16.64
DailyIQ Est.
$113.42
Technical Score (1D)
95
BUY
News Sentiment
70
BULLISH
TD Cowen has kept Aflac on a Hold rating while lifting its price target to $110, a move that signals confidence in the insurer’s earnings outlook and premium‑growth prospects, tempered by macro‑risk caution; traders should watch the upcoming earnings release for confirmation. The dividend has risen for 43 consecutive years, underscoring robust cash flow and a stable payout that supports income‑focused portfolios, so any future adjustment could signal a shift in earnings or capital needs. Argus Research has raised its target to $136, citing a stronger earnings outlook and a more favorable valuation multiple, implying upside if guidance aligns with the upgrade. JP Morgan likewise lifted its target to $117 while maintaining a neutral stance, reflecting confidence in earnings trajectory and dividend stability, making the earnings announcement a key watch item. BofA Securities increased its target to $137 after a recent earnings beat, pointing to stronger premium growth and margin improvement, so guidance on revenue and margin trends will be closely monitored. Analysts project a modest earnings decline in Q2 due to higher expenses and lower premium growth, so the earnings release will test the revised targets. Aflac’s AI‑driven underwriting initiatives and capital return programs are boosting efficiency and shareholder value, which could underpin long‑term growth. Traders should therefore monitor the earnings release for guidance on premium growth, margin expansion, and any dividend adjustments, as well as regulatory developments that could affect underwriting performance. If earnings miss expectations, targets may be revised downward, increasing short‑term volatility. Conversely, if the company confirms stronger premium growth or raises dividends, the stock could rally over the next 1–10 trading days.
Earnings Summary
Aflac Incorporated is a provider of supplemental insurance products, primarily operating in the United States and Japan, offering policies that supplement existing health, life, and critical‑illness coverage through a broad network of agencies, banks, and brokers; the company is a key player in the financial services sector’s insurance‑life industry. In the most recent two quarters, Aflac reported Q4 2025 EPS of $1.57 versus an estimate of $1.71 and revenue of $4.87 billion, followed by Q1 2026 EPS of $1.75 versus an estimate of $1.83 and revenue of $4.24 billion; compared to the prior two quarters (Q2 2025 EPS $1.78, revenue $4.54 billion and Q3 2025 EPS $2.49, revenue $4.41 billion), EPS fell sharply from Q3 to Q4 before rebounding in Q1 2026, while revenue grew from Q3 to Q4 and then contracted in Q1 2026, with the company missing estimates in both recent quarters but having beaten them in Q2 and Q3 2025. Historically, Aflac’s revenue has shown a mixed YoY trajectory—growing from $4.32 billion in Q4 2024 to $4.87 billion in Q4 2025 but declining to $4.24 billion in Q1 2026—while EPS has trended upward from $1.56 in Q4 2024 to $1.75 in Q1 2026, indicating improving profitability despite recent misses; the pattern of two consecutive earnings beats followed by two misses suggests volatility in earnings relative to analyst expectations. Recent analyst commentary highlights confidence in Aflac’s earnings outlook, with TD Cowen, Argus Research, JP Morgan, and BofA Securities all raising price targets to $110–$137 and citing premium‑growth prospects, margin expansion, and dividend stability, while noting potential headwinds from higher expenses, a cyber breach in Japan, and regulatory changes that could affect underwriting performance. Forward‑looking watch points for investors include monitoring the upcoming earnings release for guidance on premium growth, margin trends, and any dividend adjustments, as well as any updates on the cyber breach’s impact, capital return programs, and regulatory developments that could influence the company’s cost structure and future profitability.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.43$1.73$2.03$2.33$2.63Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$1.76 - -
Q1'26$1.83$1.75-4.5%
Q4'25$1.71$1.57-8.3%
Q3'25$1.78$2.49+40.2%
Q2'25$1.71$1.78+4.4%
Q1'25$1.67$1.66-0.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$4.1B$4.3B$4.5B$4.8B$5.0BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$4.2B - -
Q1'26$4.2B$4.2B-0.2%
Q4'25$4.3B$4.9B+11.9%
Q3'25 - $4.4B -
Q2'25 - $4.5B -
Q1'25 - $4.3B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

AFL Stock Snapshot

AFL is currently trading at $125.60, giving Aflac Incorporated a market cap of 63.86B and a P/E ratio of 13.8. Today's range spans $123.75–$125.70, with shares opening at $124.29 and moving up $0.14 (0.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 95/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 70/100.

Over the past year AFL has traded between $96.95 and $125.93 - the current price is +29.6% off the 52-week low and -0.3% from the high. 23 analysts cover the stock with a Hold consensus and a mean 12-month target of $117.71 (range $98.00–$137.00), implying downside of -6.3%.

Algorithmic and quant fund activity in AFL tends to intensify when the technical score crosses the 95/100 threshold - systematic models in large-cap Financial Services names trigger entry signals at these levels, adding momentum to what may have started as fundamental-driven buying. Signal: BUY. Sentiment: bullish (70/100). Price: $125.60 (near 52-week highs). The current P/E ratio stands at 13.8. Annual range: $96.95–$125.93.

What makes AFL's BUY setup (95/100) particularly actionable at 63.86B in Financial Services capitalization is the scale-to-move ratio: large enough to feature on institutional mandates but not so large that the percentage upside is already compressed by index inertia. At $125.60 (near 52-week highs in $96.95–$125.93), with sentiment running bullish at 70/100, the setup rewards conviction-sized positioning more than it does speculative small bets.