DailyIQ
DailyIQ
Last updatedUpdating…

AFL·Aflac Incorporated

$125.19
-1.05 (-0.83%)
High
$126.24
Open
$123.92
Market Cap
65.26B
52W High
$131.19
Low
$123.51
P. Close
$125.19
P/E
13.42
52W Low
$105.76
Fwd P/E
16.58
DailyIQ Est.
$112.82
Inst. Own.
47.1%
Short Interest
1.93%
Days to Cover
6.0
Div. Yield
1.93%
Next Ex-Div
~Nov 18
Div. Growth
40+ yrs
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Nov 4, 2026tone +5.2 vs prior release · 158 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
43
BEARISH
News Sentiment
61
BULLISH
On November 6, Aflac reported third‑quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, citing favorable actuarial adjustments and a reinsurance transaction that was expected to release capital. The insurer also raised its full‑year profit margin outlook for its Japanese operations, indicating improved profitability in that market. On November 5, the company announced adjusted earnings of $2.43 per share for the quarter, boosted by $0.71 in actuarial remeasurement gains, and it upgraded its margin outlook for Japan. That same day, Aflac returned $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, underscoring its commitment to shareholder value. Earlier on November 5, the company also noted a sharp decline in net earnings to $303 million, a drop from $1.6 billion in the same quarter last year, largely due to realized losses from portfolio repositioning and a weaker yen. Despite the earnings dip, management lifted its 2026 profit margin outlook, signaling confidence in future profitability. Finally, on November 5, an industry analysis highlighted Aflac as a beneficiary of increasing underwriting exposure within the Accident & Health Insurance sector, noting that its solid reserves and stable loss trends could mitigate pricing pressure from rising medical costs and inflation.
LOW TARGET
$101 -19.3%
5 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$117 -6.3%
17 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$138 +10.2%
2 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$101.00 - $138.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
1/2/12/7/2
DAILYIQ EST.
$112.82 (-9.9%)
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Insurance - Life
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Website
Symbol
AFL
Description
Aflac Incorporated is a provider of supplemental insurance products, operating primarily in the United States and Japan. The company's core business revolves around offering policies that supplement existing health and life insurance coverage. In Japan, Aflac provides a range of insurance solutions, including cancer, medical, and life insurance products. Within the United States, the company focuses on accident, disability, and critical illness policies, alongside dental, vision, and life insurance offerings. Aflac distributes its products through a diverse network of agencies, banks, and brokers, ensuring broad market access. Established in 1955, the company is headquartered in Columbus, Georgia.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
1,514,235 shares
$176.9M
Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd.-
Sell6,375 shares2026-10-15
Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd.-
Sell19,122 shares2026-10-15
Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd.-
Sell88,114 shares2026-10-15
Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd.-
Sell29,649 shares2026-10-14
Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd.-
Sell19,046 shares2026-10-14
58/ 100
Neutral / mixed
Overall: Neutral
✕Revenue declining year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Net Margin
21.2%
Revenue CAGR
0.6%
Return on Equity
12.4%

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.43$1.73$2.03$2.33$2.63Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$1.73 - -
Q3'26$1.81$2.43+34.3%
Q2'26$1.76$1.75-0.4%
Q1'26$1.83$1.75-4.5%
Q4'25$1.71$1.57-8.3%
Q3'25$1.78$2.49+40.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$4.1B$4.3B$4.5B$4.7B$5.0BQ3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$4.3B - -
Q3'26$4.2B$4.3B+3.2%
Q2'26$4.2B$4.2B+0.5%
Q1'26$4.2B$4.2B-0.2%
Q4'25$4.3B$4.9B+11.9%
Q3'25 - $4.4B -

Market Data

AFL Stock Snapshot

NEUTRAL43/100
$125.19−$1.05 (0.8%)
Market cap
65.26B
P/E ratio
13.4
Day range
$123.51 – $126.24
News sentiment
61/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$117.33 (-6.3%)
Consensus
Hold · 24 analysts
52-week range+18.4% off low · -4.6% from high
$105.76$131.19
Price $125.19 DailyIQ Est. $112.82

The setup on Aflac Incorporated is patient: consolidation, not accumulation or distribution. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Behaviour On Record

What AFL's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
18.9% 54th pct
Below its peak
-3.7%
vs 200-day average
+8.0%
Up days (1y)
49%

Aflac Incorporated is currently running 18.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AFL's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 54th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 18.2%.

AFL is trading -3.7% below its running peak. Across 13 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -13.7%, and the deepest was -52.7% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +8.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 68th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year AFL closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On November specifically: over 13 years of records, AFL finished the month higher 12 of 13 times, with a median return of +4.0% and an average of +5.3%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.3% on average, its weakest September at -0.7%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AFL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 84 of 3,266 sessions (2.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.3% and -5.3%.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, AFL moved an average of 1.8% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +0.8% and a largest of +4.3%.

All figures computed from 3,267 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-04, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AFL's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of AFL's sector?

Aflac Incorporated sits in the Financials sector, currently ranked 6th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading). Within its narrower Insurance industry group, AFL ranks 4th of 15 tracked industries, leading.

Sector rank
#6 of 12
Sector state
Leading
Sector rotation score
45
Industry rank
#4 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for AFL?

CallsPuts

For Aflac Incorporated's nearest expiry (2026-11-06, 0 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 2.63), with at-the-money implied volatility around 93.3%.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-06)
2.63
ATM implied volatility
93.3%
Total open interest
1,460

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect AFL to earn?

Analysts expect Aflac Incorporated to earn $7.02 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $8.07 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2028, from 4 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Sep 2026$1.80$1.71 to $1.9315$4.21B3
Dec 2026$1.73$1.64 to $1.8313$4.28B3
Mar 2027$1.88$1.84 to $1.914~$4.21B-
Jun 2027$1.91$1.87 to $1.954~$4.27B-
Sep 2027$1.92$1.90 to $1.954~$4.30B-
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$7.02$6.89 to $7.2616$16.94B5
Dec 2027$7.62$7.15 to $8.5515$17.23B5
Dec 2028$8.07$7.94 to $8.254~$18.06B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on AFL?

JP Morgan most recently reiterated its rating on Aflac Incorporated to Neutral on Oct 15, 2026 with a price target of $119 (from $116). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
JP Morgan: Neutral
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 15, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$116 → $119
Oct 12, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$122 → $116
Oct 9, 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainedMarket Perform$125 → $120
Oct 7, 2026MizuhoMaintainedUnderperform$116 → $107
Oct 7, 2026BarclaysMaintainedUnderweight$99 → $101
Oct 6, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$124 → $125
Aug 19, 2026Wolfe ResearchInitiatedUnderperform$103
Aug 19, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$120 → $122
Aug 11, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$117 → $116
Aug 11, 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainedMarket Perform$120 → $125
Aug 10, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedOverweight$130 → $138
Aug 10, 2026MizuhoMaintainedUnderperform$112 → $116

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Aflac Incorporated's latest earnings release say?

Filed Nov 4, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Tone49.3/ 100+5.2 vs prior release
Hedging words0.62per 100 words+0.55 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 39–72

Most important lines

  1. 1

    Adjusted earnings benefited from reserve remeasurement gains of $453 million.

    New this quarter
  2. 2

    Pretax adjusted earnings were $493 million, 31.5% higher than a year ago, primarily driven by lower benefits from higher reserve remeasurement gains as a result of unlocking actuarial assumptions and higher premiums as well as lower expenses.

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    Aflac Incorporated reached the milestone of 44 consecutive years of dividend increases with the fourth quarter declaration of $0.61.

    New this quarter

Peers & ETF holders

AFL peers & ETF holders

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about AFL?

AFL rose 10.0% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 34 and 59 from Oct 6 to Oct 12, then jumped to 90 on Oct 13.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 6 to Nov 6
$120Oct 6: tone 54Oct 7: tone 48Oct 8: tone 59Oct 9: tone 35Oct 12: tone 42Oct 13: tone 91Oct 14: tone 74Oct 15: tone 56Oct 16Oct 19: tone 55Oct 20: tone 44Oct 21Oct 22: tone 50Oct 23Oct 26: tone 47Oct 27Oct 28: tone 43Oct 29: tone 56Oct 30: tone 23Nov 2: tone 41Nov 3: tone 59Nov 4: tone 50Nov 5: tone 55Nov 6: tone 70Oct 6News toneNov 6123
  1. Oct 22 +2.6%
  2. Oct 23 -2.3%
  3. Oct 29 +2.2%

Technical analysis

How strong is AFL's momentum right now?

On the daily chart AFL ranks at the 43rd percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a neutral reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling AFL?

77 of the 200 tracked managers added to AFL in their latest 13F and 117 trimmed. Together they own 47.1% of the company, worth $28.6B. BlackRock and Vanguard Capital Management alone hold 12.4%.

77adding117trimming6unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of AFL
  1. $4.1B positionTrimmed 3.6% last quarter
  2. $3.5B positionTrimmed 1.2% last quarter
  3. $2.9B positionAdded 33.5% last quarter
  4. $2.8B positionTrimmed 0.4% last quarter
  5. $1.2B positionTrimmed 1.1% last quarter
  6. $1.0B positionTrimmed 18.1% last quarter
  7. $942.8M positionAdded 1.8% last quarter
  8. $736.7M positionTrimmed 4.1% last quarter
  9. $624.3M positionAdded 28.9% last quarter
  10. $609.8M positionAdded 27.8% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading AFL?

4 members of Congress disclosed 10 AFL trades between Mar 31, 2016 and Mar 27, 2026: 6 buys and 4 sells, about $80.0K in estimated value.

BuysSells20182020202220242026
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

What stands out

Click one to highlight its trades in the chart

Discover more

How has AFL done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 6, AFL returned +9.1%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 11 did better, led by AJG at +42.5%.

Change since May 6, through Nov 6
−20%0%+20%+40%+60%May 6JunJulAugSepOctNov 6AJG +42.5%AFL +9.1%SLF −1.2%