AFL·Aflac Incorporated

Realized volatility (21d)

13.4% 23rd pct

Below its peak

-13.6%

vs 200-day average

-2.3%

Up days (1y)

47%

Aflac Incorporated is currently running 13.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AFL's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 23rd percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 18.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AFL is trading -13.6% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -13.6%, and the deepest was -52.7% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -2.3% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 17th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year AFL closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, AFL finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +2.1% and an average of +0.6%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.2% on average, its weakest September at -0.7%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AFL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 84 of 3,266 sessions (2.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.3% and -5.3%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, AFL moved an average of 1.8% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +0.8% and a largest of +4.3%.

All figures computed from 3,267 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AFL's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.