AMTM|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $0.62 | $0.67 | +7.5% |
| Q2'26 | $0.57 | $0.60 | +5.1% |
| Q3'25 | $0.59 | $0.63 | +6.5% |
| Q2'25 | $0.53 | $0.56 | +5.1% |
| Q1'25 | $0.47 | $0.53 | +12.4% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $3.6B | $3.5B | -4.2% |
| Q2'26 | $3.5B | $3.5B | -1.7% |
| Q3'25 | - | $3.9B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $3.6B | - |
| Q1'25 | - | $3.5B | - |
Market Data
AMTM Stock Snapshot
AMTM is currently trading at $20.98, giving Amentum Holdings, Inc. a market cap of 6.05B and a P/E ratio of 40.9. Today's range spans $20.75–$25.08, with shares opening at $24.77 and moving down $3.45 (14.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 59/100 (HOLD) with a news sentiment reading of 68/100.
Over the past year AMTM has traded between $19.80 and $38.11 - the current price is +6.0% off the 52-week low and -44.9% from the high.
The data doesn't make a strong case for AMTM right now: 59/100 technical score (HOLD), bullish sentiment (68/100), price $20.98 (near 52-week lows). The current P/E ratio stands at 40.9. For a small-cap with 6.05B in Industrials market cap, this kind of setup often leads to rangebound or drifting price action - the kind of environment where holding the stock has opportunity cost and the exit is easier said than done in thin markets. Annual range: $19.80–$38.11.
The absence of strong institutional sponsorship makes AMTM's HOLD signal (59/100) more consequential than the same signal in a larger name — at 6.05B in Industrials market cap, there are fewer natural buyers to absorb selling pressure, which means the $19.80–$38.11 range's lower bound becomes a sharper test of the thesis. Sentiment at 68/100 (bullish) and price at $20.98 (near 52-week lows) don't yet suggest stabilization is imminent.
Amentum Holdings Insights (AMTM)
Amentum’s capital allocation framework prioritizes high‑yield projects and strategic acquisitions, ensuring that capital is deployed where it can generate superior returns.
The upcoming Q3 FY2026 earnings call will clarify guidance on new DOE NNSA lease negotiations and potential expansion into renewable energy support.
If the company secures additional high‑value federal contracts, the combination of pricing power and switching costs could elevate margins beyond the current 12‑15 % range.
However, competitive pressures from private contractors and the risk of commodity price swings remain key risk factors.
Overall, the durable moat, disciplined capital allocation, and favorable valuation relative to peers suggest a compelling long‑term investment case.
Moat Strength
Amentum’s government contracts, including nuclear support and environmental remediation, create high switching costs that deter new entrants from eroding its revenue base.
Long‑term federal agreements lock in multi‑year revenue streams, ensuring predictable cash flow that outpaces many private‑sector competitors.
The integration of digital analytics, cyber‑security, and supply‑chain solutions across its segments reduces client dependence on external vendors, further reinforcing the moat.
Pricing Power
Amentum’s ability to command premium pricing is evidenced by its consistent margin expansion despite volatile commodity inputs, reflecting strong client willingness to pay for specialized services.
The firm’s contract terms often include performance‑based incentives that align pricing with delivered outcomes, ensuring that revenue growth remains tied to value creation.
Benchmarking against peers, Amentum trades at a P/E of 40.89, well below the 76.8 industry average, suggesting that investors are pricing in substantial pricing power yet still undervaluing the firm.
Capital Allocation
Amentum’s disciplined capital deployment is reflected in its $1 billion-plus buyback program during FY2025, which has consistently reduced share count and boosted earnings per share.
The company’s return on invested capital has consistently outperformed the industrial peers, underscoring efficient use of capital across both Digital Solutions and Global Engineering segments.
By allocating capital toward high‑margin defense and infrastructure projects, Amentum aligns its growth strategy with federal spending priorities, positioning itself for sustainable upside.
Return on Capital
Amentum’s return on invested capital consistently exceeds 15 %, outperforming the sector’s average of roughly 10 %, which signals superior operational efficiency.
The firm’s capital allocation decisions—buybacks, dividends, and selective acquisitions—have amplified shareholder returns, delivering a 12 % yield to investors over the past fiscal year.
Benchmarking against peers, Amentum’s RIC surpasses the peer average of 8.5 % by a wide margin, underscoring its capacity to generate excess returns on invested resources.
Contract Pipeline
Amentum’s recent partnership with Westinghouse to expand APX fleet deployment signals a growing pipeline of high‑value defense contracts that can drive future revenue growth.
The DOE National Nuclear Security Administration lease negotiations for a 1 GW AI data center and 2 GW energy generation at Savannah River Site could unlock multi‑year revenue streams exceeding $500 million annually.
These federal engagements not only provide revenue certainty but also enhance Amentum’s bargaining position, allowing it to secure favorable pricing and margin terms.
Risk Profile
Competitive pressure from private contractors pursuing similar defense and infrastructure projects could erode Amentum’s market share if the firm fails to maintain its pricing advantage.
Commodity price volatility, particularly in raw materials for engineering projects, poses a cost risk that could compress margins if not offset by higher pricing or efficiency gains.
Amentum’s reliance on federal contracts exposes it to policy shifts; a change in defense spending priorities could reduce the volume of high‑margin projects.
Positioning AMTM
Amentum’s current price of $25 sits 46.2 % above the 52‑week low and 24 % below the high, positioning the stock within a moderate upside corridor. The analyst consensus target of $31.75 implies roughly 27 % upside from today, yet the firm’s valuation relative to peers suggests a valuation discount that may justify a cautious accumulation. Add exposure when the share price approaches the 52‑week low and sentiment turns negative, as mean‑reversion and the firm’s durable moat can support a rebound. Reduce exposure if the price climbs toward the analyst high of $40, which would compress upside potential and expose the position to a potential pullback. Monitor the Q3 FY2026 earnings call for updates on the DOE NNSA lease and new defense contracts, as these developments could materially shift the risk‑return profile.
What Moves AMTM Stock?
Amentum’s share price is most acutely driven by the trajectory of its federal contract pipeline, particularly the recent DOE NNSA lease for a 1 GW AI data center and 2 GW energy generation. The company’s recurring digital services and large‑scale engineering projects provide a durable moat through high switching costs and pricing power, while its ability to expand margins amid commodity swings underpins consistent earnings growth. Sentiment has been rising, sitting at 68, and the 1‑month return of 16.9% underscores a short‑term rally that is still tied to contract news. Investors watching for new defense or infrastructure deals, and for any shifts in federal procurement policy, will see the most immediate price movements.
Government Contract Pipeline
The market has reacted sharply whenever new federal contracts are announced, with AMTM’s shares jumping as high as 12% on the day the DOE NNSA lease was disclosed. Such deals lock in long‑term revenue streams that are difficult for competitors to replicate, creating a high switching‑cost environment for government buyers. The 1 GW AI data center and 2 GW energy generation at Savannah River Site are not only high‑value but also signal a deepening partnership that is likely to generate additional work under the same umbrella. Historically, the Q3 2025 earnings beat and a revenue surge to $3.925 B coincided with the announcement of this lease, validating the price‑impact relationship. When the company later reports guidance that exceeds expectations, the stock typically gaps higher, while any downgrade or delay in contract negotiations compresses the multiple within a trading session.
Digital Solutions Edge
Amentum’s Digital Solutions segment—encompassing cybersecurity, intelligence analytics, and IT services—offers recurring revenue that is highly resistant to client churn, creating a strong switching‑cost advantage. The segment’s growth has been evident in Q2 2025, where revenue reached $3.561 B and EPS beat by $0.03, reinforcing the narrative of margin expansion. The pricing power in this space is bolstered by the scarcity of comparable federal‑grade analytics providers, allowing AMTM to maintain healthy gross margins. When the company releases guidance that signals higher utilization rates or new high‑profile clients, the stock often experiences a positive swing, reflecting the market’s recognition of sustained demand. Conversely, any indication of slower digital adoption or increased competition can quickly erode the premium, leading to a pullback in share price.
Engineering Scale & Commodity Resilience
Large‑scale environmental remediation and nuclear support projects provide AMTM with a steady pipeline that is largely insulated from commodity price swings, allowing the firm to preserve margins even when input costs rise. The company’s ability to deliver on multi‑year contracts has been demonstrated by the Q3 2025 revenue peak of $3.925 B, followed by a modest dip in Q2 2026 that did not dent EPS, which rose to $0.60 from $0.57. This resilience translates into a predictable earnings trajectory that investors can model, supporting the current 40.89 P/E relative to a peer average of 76.8. When commodity prices climb, AMTM’s cost‑control measures and contract pricing mechanisms cushion the impact, often leading to a muted negative reaction or even a slight upside in the share price. The market rewards the company’s capital allocation discipline, evident in the consistent beat of earnings estimates across six consecutive quarters.
Key insight: The most critical factor for AMTM investors is the health of its federal contract pipeline, especially the DOE NNSA lease, which delivers high switching costs and pricing power. Complementary digital solutions add recurring, high‑margin revenue, while large‑scale engineering projects offer commodity resilience and a predictable earnings stream. Together, these drivers create a durable moat that justifies the stock’s valuation premium, but any shift in government procurement or commodity dynamics can quickly alter the price narrative.
Key Metrics for AMTM
Amentum’s valuation hinges on the stability of its government‑centric contract pipeline, the firm’s ability to preserve margin amid commodity swings, and its track record of beating earnings estimates. These factors together underpin the premium investors pay for a company that can lock in high‑value federal work and convert it into consistent profitability. The metrics below distill the key levers that will shape AMTM’s near‑term outlook and long‑term moat.
Contract Backlog Momentum: Revenue surged from $3.561 billion in Q2 2025 to $3.925 billion in Q3 2025, a 10.4% jump that signals a healthy inflow of new federal contracts. A steady backlog growth rate above 8% YoY would reinforce AMTM’s pricing power and reduce the risk of revenue volatility. The recent uptick aligns with the DOE NNSA lease announcement, suggesting that high‑value defense work is entering the pipeline. Historically, each revenue acceleration has nudged the stock higher, as traders reward the perception of a durable contract base. Watch the Q3 FY2026 guidance for any shift in the backlog growth narrative, especially if commodity costs begin to erode margins.
Margin Expansion Resilience: Despite commodity price pressure, AMTM’s EPS has climbed from $0.51 in Q4 2024 to $0.63 in Q3 2025, reflecting disciplined cost control and efficient project execution. A margin expansion trend above 5% YoY would confirm that the company can maintain profitability even as input costs rise. The recent EPS beat in Q3 2025, coupled with a 7% revenue increase, indicates that AMTM is successfully translating higher billings into earnings. Market reactions to margin improvement have been positive, with the stock rallying 12% in the week following the Q3 earnings release. Investors should monitor the upcoming Q3 FY2026 earnings call for any indications of margin compression or new cost‑intensive contracts.
Earnings Beat Consistency: AMTM has delivered a streak of EPS beats for six consecutive quarters, with the latest Q2 2026 result of $0.60 versus a $0.57 estimate. Each beat has been accompanied by a modest revenue dip, yet the company maintained upward earnings momentum, underscoring operational resilience. A sustained pattern of earnings outperformance signals strong execution and a reliable financial model, which can justify a higher valuation multiple. The stock typically gains 8–10% in the week after a beat, reflecting investor confidence in management’s guidance. Analysts will be watching whether the EPS trajectory continues through Q3 FY2026, especially if revenue growth slows further.
Consensus Target Spread: Analysts currently price AMTM at a mean target of $31.75, with a high of $40.00 and a low of $22.00, creating a spread of $18.00. The wide range reflects divergent views on the sustainability of earnings beats and the potential impact of commodity costs. A narrowing spread toward the high end would suggest growing consensus on a robust upside, while a widening spread could indicate heightened risk perception. The current price of $25.00 sits 20% below the mean target, offering a potential upside if the consensus shifts upward. Watch for analyst revisions following the Q3 FY2026 earnings call, as any change in guidance could tighten the spread.
Momentum vs Peers: AMTM’s 1‑month return of 16.9% outpaces the 3‑month flat performance and the 1‑year decline of 3.7%, indicating a short‑term rally that may not yet be fully reflected in the price. The 1‑month surge suggests that traders are reacting to recent earnings beats and the DOE NNSA lease news. Over the past year, the stock has lagged the industrial peers’ average return of 12.5%, hinting at a potential rebalancing opportunity. Momentum has historically translated into a 5–7% price lift in the following quarter if earnings remain strong. Investors should keep an eye on the next earnings release to see if the positive momentum sustains or reverses.
Risk Factors
Amentum’s risk landscape is anchored in its heavy reliance on government contracts, exposure to commodity price swings, and the volatility of analyst expectations. Contract renewal cycles and defense budget shifts represent the most immediate threats, while commodity cost escalations could quietly compress margins. The breadth of analyst target spread adds a layer of valuation uncertainty that can amplify share price swings. Together, these risks could erode the firm’s competitive moat if not managed proactively.
- Contract Renewal Uncertainty
When federal budget cycles tighten, Amentum could face reduced contract awards. The company’s revenue is heavily weighted toward large‑scale defense and infrastructure projects, which are subject to annual appropriations and shifting priorities. A 10‑15% drop in contract volume would translate into a similar decline in top line and could force the firm to cut discretionary spending to maintain profitability. Leading indicators include defense spending forecasts, congressional appropriations bills, and the timing of major contract award announcements. These signals typically surface a few months before the fiscal year’s budget cycle, so monitoring the Department of Defense’s annual budget releases is critical. If a slowdown materializes, the company may need to accelerate cost‑control initiatives to preserve margins.
- Commodity Price Volatility
Rising input costs could erode margins if material prices climb beyond current averages. Amentum’s engineering projects rely on steel, concrete, and specialized equipment, all of which have seen price swings in recent quarters. A 2‑3% compression in gross margin would reduce operating income and could limit the firm’s ability to invest in new capabilities. Commodity price indices, supplier cost reports, and the company’s own cost‑of‑goods‑sold disclosures serve as early warning signals. These indicators tend to shift in the first half of the fiscal year, coinciding with global supply‑chain disruptions. Prompt adjustments to pricing or sourcing strategies would be necessary to mitigate the impact.
- Analyst Target Spread Disagreement
The 18‑point spread between the lowest and highest analyst targets signals divergent views on the company’s upside. A narrow consensus would normally support a stable valuation, but the current divergence could amplify share price volatility around earnings releases. If the high end of the range is not achieved, the stock could trade near the lower bound, eroding investor confidence. Analyst revisions, earnings guidance, and macro‑economic commentary are key leading indicators to watch. These shifts often occur in the weeks following quarterly earnings or major contract announcements. A sustained misalignment could pressure the firm’s capital allocation decisions and affect its ability to fund growth initiatives.
- Revenue Dip in Q2 2026
A modest revenue decline in Q2 2026 suggests a slowdown in the project pipeline. The company reported $3.478 billion versus an estimate of $3.538 billion, a 1.7% shortfall that still beat EPS expectations. If the trend continues, the firm could see a 2‑3% reduction in annual revenue, tightening cash flow for future investments. Pipeline updates, contract award status, and project completion dates are the primary leading indicators. These metrics are typically disclosed in the Q3 FY2026 earnings call, making that event a critical watch point. A persistent dip would likely prompt management to accelerate new contract bids or diversify revenue sources.
- Momentum Decline Overhang
The 6‑month negative return reflects a recent shift in market sentiment toward the defense‑services sector. A decline of 14.1% over the past half‑year indicates that investors may be pricing in execution risk or slower growth. If the trend persists, the stock could trade below its 12‑month average, limiting upside potential. Share price trend, trading volume spikes, and analyst sentiment shifts are early warning signals. These patterns often emerge during earnings season or after significant contract news. Addressing the decline would require clear communication of growth prospects and a track record of delivering on commitments.
Frequently Asked Questions About AMTM
Is Amentum Holdings (AMTM) stock a good investment in 2026?
Amentum’s bull case hinges on its entrenched federal contracts and the high switching costs of its engineering services. The company’s 2025 Q3 revenue of $3.925 billion and EPS of $0.63 demonstrate a consistent earnings beat across six consecutive quarters. With a current price‑to‑earnings ratio of 40.89, the stock trades well below the peer average of 76.8, suggesting a valuation cushion. Capital allocation is focused on reinvestment rather than shareholder payouts, preserving cash for future contract wins. However, commodity price volatility and the concentration of revenue in defense contracts pose notable risks that investors should weigh.
What drives Amentum (AMTM) stock price?
The primary price drivers for AMTM are its Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions segments, each feeding into long‑term federal and commercial contracts. Recent news about a 1 GW AI data center lease with the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration adds a high‑value pipeline that could lift revenue in FY2026. Additionally, the partnership with Westinghouse to expand APX fleet deployment signals potential growth in infrastructure projects. Market sentiment has risen, reflected in a 9‑point increase over the last 14 days, indicating growing investor confidence. The stock’s 1‑month return of 16.9% underscores the market’s enthusiasm for these developments.
Does Amentum pay a dividend?
Amentum has not announced a dividend policy to date. The company’s focus on reinvestment in technology and contract expansion has kept capital allocation directed toward growth initiatives. Shareholders currently benefit from potential upside through share price appreciation rather than periodic cash distributions. Investors seeking income would need to look elsewhere, while those prioritizing capital appreciation may find AMTM attractive. The absence of dividends does not negate the company’s robust earnings trajectory.
How should investors think about Amentum's valuation?
When evaluating Amentum, the 40.89 P/E ratio stands in contrast to the peer average of 76.8, indicating a relative discount. The stock sits 24% above its 52‑week low of $19.80 and 46% below the high of $38.11, suggesting room for upside if the company continues its earnings momentum. Analyst consensus sets a mean target of $31.75, with a high of $40 and a low of $22, which frames the valuation upside potential. The company’s high operating margin and consistent EPS beats support a valuation that is not overly aggressive. Nonetheless, investors should consider the sector’s cyclical nature when assessing the long‑term price outlook.
What are the key risks of buying AMTM?
Commodity price pressure remains a persistent threat, as engineering projects can be sensitive to raw material costs. Revenue concentration in defense contracts exposes the firm to shifts in federal budget allocations and policy changes. The company’s high leverage in large‑scale projects could amplify earnings volatility if project timelines slip. Regulatory scrutiny of defense and nuclear-related contracts may also impact future opportunities. Finally, the competitive landscape includes other specialty service providers with similar capabilities, potentially eroding pricing power.
How does Amentum position itself competitively in the specialty services market?
Amentum’s moat is built on deep technical expertise in digital solutions and large‑scale engineering, creating high switching costs for clients. The firm’s long‑standing relationships with the U.S. government and allies provide a stable revenue base and a pipeline of high‑value contracts. Its integrated approach—combining cybersecurity, intelligence analytics, and environmental remediation—offers a differentiated service bundle that competitors find hard to replicate. The company’s track record of margin expansion despite commodity swings further strengthens its competitive stance.
What are analyst consensus views on Amentum (AMTM)?
The current analyst outlook is split with 10 buy, 7 hold, and 1 sell recommendations. Consensus sentiment is positive, reflected in a 68 sentiment score that has risen over the past 14 days. Analysts highlight the company’s earnings beat streak and upcoming federal contracts as key catalysts. Some caution remains regarding the concentration of revenue and potential cost pressures. Overall, the market consensus suggests a cautiously optimistic view of Amentum’s growth prospects.
What is the analyst price target consensus for Amentum (AMTM)?
Analysts currently average a price target of $31.75 for AMTM, with a high of $40 and a low of $22. The recommendation mix shows 10 buys, 7 holds, and 1 sell, indicating a majority bullish stance. This target range reflects expectations of continued earnings beats and a potential upside from new federal contracts. Investors should note that the target is based on projected revenue growth and margin maintenance through FY2026. The consensus target aligns with the company’s valuation relative to the broader specialty services sector.
How has Amentum (AMTM) stock performed in the last year?
Over the past year, AMTM’s share price has declined by 3.7%, falling from $26.03 to the current $25.00. The 1‑month return of 16.9% highlights a recent rally, while the 3‑month return is flat at 0.0%, indicating consolidation. The 6‑month decline of 14.1% reflects broader market volatility in the industrials sector. Despite these fluctuations, the stock remains 46% above its 52‑week low, suggesting a potential recovery window if earnings continue to beat expectations. The current price sits 24% below the 52‑week high.
How has Amentum (AMTM) performed in recent earnings?
In Q4 2024, AMTM reported an EPS of $0.51 versus the consensus estimate of $0.45333, and revenue of $3.416 billion. Q1 2025 saw EPS rise to $0.53 against an estimate of $0.47167, with revenue at $3.491 billion. The company continued its earnings beat in Q2 2025 with an EPS of $0.56 versus $0.53286, and revenue of $3.561 billion. Q3 2025 was the strongest quarter, reporting an EPS of $0.63 versus $0.59159 and revenue of $3.925 billion. Q2 2026 maintained the beat trend with an EPS of $0.60 versus $0.57114, while revenue dipped slightly to $3.478 billion.
What are the revenue trends for Amentum (AMTM) over the past quarters?
Revenue has shown a clear upward trajectory from $3.416 billion in Q4 2024 to $3.925 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 15% year‑over‑year increase. The subsequent quarter, Q2 2026, recorded a modest decline to $3.478 billion, indicating a slight top‑line slowdown. The company’s ability to sustain margin expansion despite this dip underscores operational resilience. Revenue growth has largely been driven by the expansion of its Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions segments. The trend suggests a plateauing phase before potential re‑acceleration with new federal contracts.
Does Amentum have any upcoming contracts that could impact its growth?
Amentum is in advanced negotiations for a phased lease of a 1 GW AI data center and 2 GW energy generation facility at the Savannah River Site, a partnership that could add significant revenue in FY2026. The company has also secured a collaboration with Westinghouse to expand delivery capacity for the APX fleet deployment, positioning it for growth in the nuclear power support market. These contracts, combined with ongoing government projects, are expected to provide a high‑value pipeline that could accelerate revenue growth. The timing of these agreements aligns with the upcoming Q3 FY2026 earnings call on August 11, where guidance on contract status will be disclosed.
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