DailyIQ
Last updated2 minutes ago

EFX·Equifax Inc.

$158.94
-2.23 (-1.38%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$158.87-0.07 (-0.04%)
High
$161.38
Open
$160.88
Market Cap
19.24B
52W High
$262.30
Low
$157.64
P. Close
$158.94
P/E
27.83
52W Low
$149.95
Fwd P/E
15.65
DailyIQ Est.
$220.41
Inst. Ownership
46.9%
Short Interest
6.44%
Days to Cover
7.3
Technical Score (1D)
23
SELL
News Sentiment
74
BULLISH
Equifax’s latest earnings outlook, released just 1½ hours ago, now projects a 8.3 % year‑over‑year increase in Q3 2026 revenue and earnings, a sharp lift from prior guidance. The company attributes this jump largely to a new $300 million pipeline of state‑government contracts that will feed its Workforce Solutions segment, a core driver of its consumer‑credit analytics business. In addition, Equifax is rolling out AI‑enabled product enhancements and internal automation that management expects to raise operating margins and accelerate international top‑line growth. The combination of a larger contract base and higher‑margin technology investments signals a stronger earnings trajectory for the next 1–10 trading days, as investors digest the updated guidance and anticipate the first quarterly results. Because the Workforce Solutions pipeline is contract‑based, any delay or cancellation could quickly erode the projected upside, making the status of those state agreements a key watch item. Likewise, the pace at which the AI and automation initiatives are deployed will determine whether margin expansion materializes as forecasted. Market participants should also monitor how the international expansion plays out, as foreign currency exposure could offset domestic gains. Finally, keep an eye on any regulatory developments that could impact Equifax’s consumer‑credit data operations, as changes there could affect both revenue and compliance costs.
Earnings Summary
Equifax, a long‑standing data and analytics firm, serves employers, consumers, and businesses through its Workforce Solutions, U.S. Information Solutions, and International segments, positioning it as a key player in the consulting services space within the industrials sector. In the most recent quarters, the company posted EPS of $2.12 in Q4 2024, $1.53 in Q1 2025, $2.00 in Q2 2025, and $2.04 in Q3 2025, all exceeding analyst expectations and indicating a consistent beat pattern over the last four quarters; revenue grew from $1.419 billion in Q4 2024 to $1.544 billion in Q3 2025, a 8.8% YoY increase. The Q1 2026 EPS fell short of the $2.222 estimate at $1.86, while revenue of $1.649 billion was slightly below the $1.692 billion estimate, suggesting a modest slowdown, yet Q2 2026 EPS of $2.25 beat the $2.200 estimate and revenue of $1.700 billion matched the $1.713 billion estimate, reflecting a rebound. Historically, Equifax has shown steady YoY revenue growth, with EPS generally beating estimates except for the Q1 2026 dip, and the company has maintained a pattern of revenue expansion even when EPS misses occur. Recent news highlights a sharp lift in Q3 2026 guidance, driven by a $300 million state‑government contracts pipeline for Workforce Solutions and AI‑enabled product enhancements aimed at margin expansion; this update signals a potential upside trajectory, though the company cautions that delays in contracts or slower AI deployment could erode the projected gains. Investors should watch for the actual Q3 2026 results to confirm whether the new pipeline and AI initiatives translate into the announced 8.3% revenue and earnings growth, and monitor any regulatory developments that could impact its consumer‑credit data operations, as such changes could affect both revenue and compliance costs.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.28$1.55$1.83$2.10$2.38Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$2.23 - -
Q2'26$2.20$2.25+2.3%
Q1'26$2.22$1.86-16.3%
Q3'25$1.94$2.04+5.3%
Q2'25$1.92$2.00+4.1%
Q1'25$1.40$1.53+9.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.4B$1.5B$1.6B$1.7B$1.8BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$1.7B - -
Q2'26$1.7B$1.7B-0.8%
Q1'26$1.7B$1.6B-2.6%
Q3'25 - $1.5B -
Q2'25 - $1.5B -
Q1'25 - $1.4B -

Market Data

EFX Stock Snapshot

SELL23/100
$158.87$0.07 (0.0%)
Market cap
19.24B
P/E ratio
27.8
Day range
$157.64 – $161.38
News sentiment
74/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$214.95 (+35.3%)
Consensus
Buy · 32 analysts
52-week range+5.9% off low · -39.4% from high
$149.95$262.30
Price $158.87 DailyIQ Est. $220.41

EFX is on the weaker side of its setup, with little confirmation for a reversal yet. In Industrials, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into EFX?

FAIR

At today's price, Equifax Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 6.7% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 8.27% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 4.0% a year, so the market is asking for 2.7 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis EFX looks priced roughly in line with its own growth record.

Implied FCF growth
6.7%
Historical FCF CAGR
4.0%
Growth gap
+2.7 pts
Verdict
FAIR
Discount rate (WACC)
8.27%
Beta
0.94

Behaviour On Record

What EFX's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
32.0% 74th pct
Below its peak
-48.3%
vs 200-day average
-14.6%
Up days (1y)
49%

Equifax Inc. is currently running 32.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against EFX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 74th percentile a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 23.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

EFX is trading -48.3% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.0%, and the deepest was -47.6% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -14.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 12th percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year EFX closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, EFX finished the month higher 3 of 13 times, with a median return of -4.8% and an average of -6.0%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.4% on average, its weakest September at -6.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: EFX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 103 of 3,268 sessions (3.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +28.0% and -8.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against EFX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of EFX's sector?

Equifax Inc. sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#11 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
30

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for EFX?

CallsPuts

For Equifax Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 27 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 5.97), with at-the-money implied volatility around 45.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±12.3% move by that expiry — a range of about $151.23–$193.77.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
5.97
ATM implied volatility
45.8%
Total open interest
2,224
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±12.3% ($151.23–$193.77)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on EFX?

Rothschild & Co most recently upgraded Equifax Inc. to Buy on Aug 21, 2026 with a price target of $235 (from $214). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
Rothschild & CoBuy
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Aug 21, 2026Rothschild & CoUpgradeNeutral → Buy$214 → $235
Jul 22, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$220 → $212
Jul 22, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$243 → $225
Jul 22, 2026BairdMaintainedOutperform$245 → $232
Jul 22, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$222 → $194
Jul 22, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$215 → $200
Jul 22, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$265 → $245
Jul 8, 2026UBSReiteratedBuy$220
Jul 7, 2026NeedhamReiteratedBuy$265
Jul 2, 2026MizuhoMaintainedOutperform$222 → $210
Jul 2, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$215 → $220
Jun 18, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$230 → $220

EFX Competitive Positioning

Equifax Inc. (EFX) is tracked alongside these names in Consulting Services on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.