CMG·Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

37.5% 78th pct

Below its peak

-51.2%

vs 200-day average

-4.5%

Up days (1y)

49%

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is currently running 37.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CMG's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 78th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 28.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CMG is trading -51.2% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.4%, and the deepest was -50.1% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -4.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 33rd percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year CMG closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, CMG finished the month higher 4 of 13 times, with a median return of -3.8% and an average of -3.1%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +6.4% on average, its weakest October at -3.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CMG has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 73 of 3,268 sessions (2.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.5% and -9.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, CMG moved an average of 4.9% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +5.8% and a largest of +7.9%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CMG's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.