DailyIQ
|
Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updated 2 minutes ago

CMG·Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

$.
-. (-.%)
After Hours
High
$32.67
Open
$32.37
Market Cap
41.70B
52W High
$58.42
Low
$31.83
P. Close
$31.88
P/E
28.72
52W Low
$29.75
Fwd P/E
23.48
Mean Target
$43.38
Technical Score (1D)
14
SELL
News Sentiment
33
BEARISH
Chipotle's stock price has fallen 4.6% since its latest earnings report, indicating potential investor concerns regarding financial results or outlook. This recent dip suggests market participants are scrutinizing the drivers behind the post-earnings stock movement. In an effort to address a reported 1.7% decrease in same-store sales for fiscal year 2025, Chipotle is prioritizing menu innovation. This includes testing a new crispy chicken offering as part of its \"Recipe for Growth\" initiative. The company is increasing the cadence of menu updates to revitalize sales and drive customer traffic. Investors will be watching to see if these menu innovations can effectively counter the recent sales decline and improve market sentiment.
Earnings Summary
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a fast-casual restaurant chain specializing in customizable Mexican-inspired cuisine, emphasizing fresh ingredients and a value proposition centered on quality. Operating within the Consumer Cyclical sector's Restaurants industry, Chipotle has expanded its presence internationally beyond its U.S. base. The company's recent performance shows a mixed trend in earnings per share (EPS) against analyst estimates. In Q4 2025, EPS was $0.25 against an estimate of $0.2417, and in Q1 2026, actual EPS was $0.24 against an estimate of $0.2407. Revenue figures for these periods were $2.98 billion and $3.09 billion respectively, with estimates of $2.99 billion and $3.10 billion. Looking at the last two reported quarters, Q1 2026 saw actual EPS of $0.24 compared to an estimate of $0.2407, and revenue of $3.09 billion versus an estimate of $3.10 billion. This follows Q4 2025 where actual EPS was $0.25 against an estimate of $0.2417, and revenue was $2.98 billion against an estimate of $2.99 billion. Prior to this, Q3 2025 reported actual EPS of $0.29 against an estimate of $0.28749, and Q2 2025 reported actual EPS of $0.33 against an estimate of $0.32588. This indicates a pattern of meeting or slightly exceeding EPS estimates in recent quarters, with revenue also generally aligning with expectations. Historically, Chipotle has demonstrated a trajectory of revenue growth, though the provided data does not offer a clear year-over-year comparison for EPS or revenue over multiple years to analyze a consistent streak or identify notable historical beats or misses beyond the most recent quarters. The company has shown a tendency to meet or slightly surpass analyst EPS expectations in the last few quarters. Recent news highlights Chipotle's "Summer of Extras" program, a loyalty initiative designed to boost customer engagement through gamified challenges, and a pilot for a $2.50 single taco promotion aimed at broadening customer appeal. These strategies are being implemented amidst analyst confidence in future growth prospects, despite recent stock underperformance relative to the market. Investors will be watching to see if these loyalty programs and value-oriented tests can sustain comparable sales growth and transactions, and how the company's planned expansion of 350-370 new stores in 2026 translates into profitability against ongoing industry pressures.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.23$0.26$0.29$0.31$0.34Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$0.32 - -
Q1'26$0.24$0.24-0.3%
Q4'25$0.24$0.25+3.4%
Q3'25$0.29$0.29+0.9%
Q2'25$0.33$0.33+1.3%
Q1'25$0.28$0.29+4.7%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.8B$3.0B$3.1B$3.2B$3.4BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$3.3B - -
Q1'26$3.1B$3.1B-0.3%
Q4'25$3.0B$3.0B-0.4%
Q3'25 - $3.0B -
Q2'25 - $3.1B -
Q1'25 - $2.9B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

CMG Stock Snapshot

CMG is currently trading at $31.98, giving Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. a market cap of 41.70B and a P/E ratio of 28.7. Today's range spans $31.83–$32.67, with shares opening at $32.37 and moving up $0.10 (0.3%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 14/100 (SELL) with a news sentiment reading of 33/100.

Over the past year CMG has traded between $29.75 and $58.42 - the current price is +7.5% off the 52-week low and -45.3% from the high. 46 analysts cover the stock with a Buy consensus and a mean 12-month target of $43.38 (range $35.00–$52.00), implying upside of +35.6%.

Risk is elevated for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) right now - bearish technical setup (14/100, SELL), bearish sentiment (33/100), price $31.98 (near 52-week lows). The current P/E ratio stands at 28.7. At 41.70B in Consumer Cyclical market cap, the 52-week range of $29.75–$58.42 defines where structural demand might resurface - because at this capitalization tier, buyers don't disappear, they just move their bids to different price levels.

Analyst coverage for CMG becomes a double-edged factor in a SELL phase: at 41.70B in Consumer Cyclical market cap, active coverage is high enough that downgrade risk is real and impactful. The 14/100 technical reading and bearish sentiment (33/100) at $31.98 (near 52-week lows) place the stock in the zone where one or two high-profile estimate cuts can convert a grinding decline into a sharper re-rating — the $29.75–$58.42 range establishes where that repricing lands.