YUM·Yum! Brands, Inc.
YUM|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $1.48 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $1.68 | $1.62 | -3.5% |
| Q1'26 | $1.39 | $1.50 | +8.0% |
| Q3'25 | $1.48 | $1.58 | +6.7% |
| Q2'25 | $1.46 | $1.44 | -1.3% |
| Q1'25 | $1.28 | $1.30 | +1.5% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $2.2B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $2.2B | $2.2B | -2.3% |
| Q1'26 | $2.0B | $2.1B | +0.8% |
| Q3'25 | - | $2.0B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $1.9B | - |
| Q1'25 | - | $1.8B | - |
YUM|Monthly Returns
Market Data
YUM Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 38.44B
- P/E ratio
- 17.3
- Day range
- $134.26 – $138.32
- News sentiment
- 45/100 · Neutral
- Analyst target
- $172.89 (+25.3%)
- Consensus
- Hold · 34 analysts
YUM is on the weaker side of its setup, with little confirmation for a reversal yet. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into YUM?
At today's price, Yum! Brands, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 7.1% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.67% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 3.8% a year, so the market is asking for 3.4 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis YUM looks priced above what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- 7.1%
- Historical FCF CAGR
- 3.8%
- Growth gap
- +3.4 pts
- Verdict
- RICH
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 6.67%
- Beta
- 0.54
Behaviour On Record
What YUM's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 31.9% 93rd pct
- Below its peak
- -17.9%
- vs 200-day average
- -10.7%
- Up days (1y)
- 49%
Yum! Brands, Inc. is currently running 31.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against YUM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 93rd percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 19.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.
YUM is trading -17.9% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -17.3%, and the deepest was -45.9% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.
Price sits -10.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 5th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year YUM closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.
On September specifically: over 13 years of records, YUM finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -2.8% and an average of -1.9%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +6.3% on average, its weakest October at -2.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.
Overnight risk is measurable too: YUM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 90 of 3,268 sessions (2.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +13.9% and -7.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.
All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against YUM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of YUM's sector?
Yum! Brands, Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 10th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).
- Sector rank
- #10 of 11
- Sector state
- Improving
- Sector rotation score
- 20
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on YUM?
Baird most recently reiterated its rating on Yum! Brands, Inc. to Outperform on Sep 16, 2026 with a price target of $165 (from $174). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.
- Latest action
- Baird — Outperform
- 90-day upgrades
- 1
- 90-day downgrades
- 0
- Net rating momentum
- +1
