DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updated 2 minutes ago

SBUX·Starbucks Corporation

$.
-. (-.%)
After Hours
High
$100.91
Open
$100.50
Market Cap
114.82B
52W High
$108.88
Low
$98.57
P. Close
$100.74
P/E
76.77
52W Low
$77.99
Fwd P/E
32.66
Mean Target
$106.58
Technical Score (1D)
50
NEUTRAL
News Sentiment
63
BULLISH
Starbucks operator Alsea has launched its first "Smart Lounge" concept in Latin America with a new store in Santiago, Chile, integrating dedicated work and meeting spaces with a traditional café experience. This move aims to evolve the company's "third place" offering in the region by catering to changing customer needs for both coffee service and reservable workspaces. Meanwhile, Starbucks is prioritizing AI integration across its operations, with tech staff bonuses now tied to achieving artificial intelligence adoption goals, signaling a push for future growth and efficiency through advanced technology. However, the company has reportedly retired an AI agent after a short deployment due to inventory miscounting and operational slowdowns, highlighting challenges in integrating new technology within complex service environments. In South Korea, Starbucks is facing a significant sales decline and public backlash following a controversial "Tank Day" marketing campaign, which led to the withdrawal of the campaign, an apology, and the termination of leadership and staff involved. These localized market pressures contrast with broader strategic initiatives, such as the company's presentation at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference where leadership likely discussed future plans and outlook. The company also recently saw its stock decline following its latest earnings report, prompting scrutiny of current earnings estimates to understand the market's reaction to recent financial performance and potential operational concerns. Despite these challenges, Starbucks reports a notable increase in afternoon customer traffic, attributed to menu innovations designed to establish the chain as a consistent all-day destination, suggesting some traction in its turnaround strategy.
Earnings Summary
Starbucks Corporation is a prominent global player in the coffee industry, functioning as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of premium coffee and related products, with a business model centered on company-operated and licensed stores. Operating across North America, International, and Channel Development segments, the company offers a diverse range of beverages and food items, extending its brand through packaged goods and single-serve products. Starbucks competes within the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically in the Restaurants industry, leveraging its established premium brand image and differentiated customer experience. Examining the most recent reported quarters, Starbucks experienced a deceleration in Earnings Per Share (EPS) performance. In Q3 2026, the actual EPS was $0.50 against an estimate of $0.65092, and in Q2 2026, actual EPS was $0.50 against an estimate of $0.63352. This follows a period where Q1 2026 saw actual EPS of $0.41 against an estimate of $0.48368, and Q3 2025 reported actual EPS of $0.52 against an estimate of $0.55621. Revenue trends also show mixed performance, with Q2 2026 revenue at $9.53 billion against an estimate of $9.02 billion, and Q3 2025 revenue at $9.57 billion with no estimate provided. The company has missed EPS estimates in the last three reported quarters, indicating a pattern of underperformance relative to analyst expectations. Historically, Starbucks has demonstrated a mixed year-over-year growth trajectory. The company has shown a pattern of missing EPS estimates in recent quarters, notably in Q1 2026 and Q2 2026, despite revenue figures sometimes exceeding expectations, such as in Q2 2026. This suggests potential challenges in translating revenue growth into bottom-line profitability or managing operational costs effectively against analyst projections. The beat/miss pattern indicates a need for closer scrutiny of earnings consistency. Recent news highlights several key developments impacting Starbucks. The company has faced investor scrutiny following a stock decline after its last earnings report, with market participants assessing potential operational challenges. A previous backlash over a flat-fee pricing update for customizations has seen a recovery in customer perception of value, potentially linked to a new rewards system. However, a significant marketing misstep in South Korea led to a global apology and executive dismissals, underscoring reputational risks. Furthermore, the discontinuation of an AI-powered inventory system indicates operational setbacks. Despite these challenges, analysts have issued a "Strong Buy" rating, and the company has recently achieved positive guest traffic growth, a critical metric in the current market. Looking ahead, investors will be watching for continued positive guest traffic momentum as a key indicator of operational health and consumer engagement. The effectiveness of the new rewards program in sustaining customer value perception and mitigating past pricing concerns will be crucial. Additionally, the company's ability to navigate reputational risks and execute strategic initiatives following operational setbacks, such as the AI inventory system, will be important factors to monitor in upcoming earnings reports.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.37$0.46$0.55$0.64$0.73Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$0.60 - -
Q2'26$0.63$0.50-21.1%
Q3'25$0.56$0.52-6.5%
Q2'25$0.65$0.50-22.5%
Q1'25$0.48$0.41-15.2%
Q4'24$0.67$0.69+3.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$8.6B$8.9B$9.3B$9.6B$10.0BQ4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$9.8B - -
Q2'26$9.0B$9.5B+5.7%
Q3'25 - $9.6B -
Q2'25 - $9.5B -
Q1'25 - $8.8B -
Q4'24 - $9.4B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

SBUX Stock Snapshot

SBUX is currently trading at $100.76, giving Starbucks Corporation a market cap of 114.82B and a P/E ratio of 76.8. Today's range spans $98.57–$100.91, with shares opening at $100.50 and moving up $0.02 (0.0%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 50/100 (HOLD) with a news sentiment reading of 63/100.

Over the past year SBUX has traded between $77.99 and $108.88 - the current price is +29.2% off the 52-week low and -7.5% from the high. 49 analysts cover the stock with a Hold consensus and a mean 12-month target of $106.58 (range $81.00–$137.00), implying upside of +5.8%.

SBUX is in a holding pattern - 50/100 technical score, HOLD signal, price at $100.76 (in the upper portion of its 52-week range), sentiment bullish at 63/100. (P/E: 76.8) At 114.82B in Consumer Cyclical market cap, HOLD phases like this are where the thesis is re-evaluated and position sizing decisions get made by both longs and shorts. Annual range: $77.99–$108.88. The next catalyst, not the current setup, determines the exit from this range.

Portfolio construction in Consumer Cyclical often uses large-cap names like SBUX as tactical swing positions during neutral phases: cheap enough to overweight, liquid enough to exit quickly, and large enough to provide meaningful sector beta. The current 50/100 (HOLD) at $100.76 (in the upper portion of its 52-week range) and bullish sentiment (63/100) frame the position as a catalyst play within the $77.99–$108.88 annual range rather than a directional bet.