DailyIQ
Last updated2 minutes ago

SBUX·Starbucks Corporation

$95.80
-0.87 (-0.90%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$95.98+0.18 (+0.19%)
High
$96.95
Open
$96.36
Market Cap
110.20B
52W High
$115.51
Low
$95.11
P. Close
$95.80
P/E
55.58
52W Low
$77.50
Fwd P/E
30.69
DailyIQ Est.
$113.52
Inst. Ownership
57.4%
Short Interest
3.48%
Days to Cover
6.5
Technical Score (1D)
14
SELL
News Sentiment
43
BEARISH
Starbucks’ latest $1 million settlement with Florida’s Department of Legal Affairs obligates the company to cease race‑ or sex‑based hiring, promotion, and pay preferences and to submit annual compliance certifications for four years, while also refraining from joining board‑diversity‑quota organizations. The settlement imposes a modest operational burden but signals that regulators may scrutinize the firm’s diversity policies more closely nationwide, potentially raising compliance costs in the near term. The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals’ decision to reject most of a National Labor Relations Board ruling, while upholding a finding that Starbucks threatened to deny maternity leave benefits if employees unionized, underscores lingering labor‑relations risks that could translate into higher litigation expenses and employee unrest over the next few trading days. This legal backdrop may prompt investors to monitor any subsequent regulatory inquiries into the company’s employee‑organizing practices. Meanwhile, reports that Starbucks is evaluating a sale of a majority stake in its Japan business—valued at roughly $3 billion and accounting for about 9 % of its global footprint—introduce a potential capital‑raising opportunity that could offset future revenue losses from that market. The decision remains contingent on adviser input and market conditions, so traders should watch for any formal announcement or pricing guidance in the coming weeks. In sum, the settlement and court ruling highlight compliance and labor‑risk exposures that could affect short‑term earnings, while the Japan sale discussion adds a strategic capital‑allocation dimension that may reshape the company’s balance sheet. Keep an eye on regulatory filings for further details on the diversity commitments and on any formal sale documentation that could signal a shift in Starbucks’ global footprint.
Earnings Summary
Starbucks Corporation operates as a global coffee roaster, marketer, and retailer, with a diversified footprint across North America, International, and Channel Development segments, positioning it as a leading player in the consumer‑cyclical restaurant industry. In the most recent two quarters, revenue rose from $8.7616 billion in Q1 2025 to $9.456 billion in Q2 2025, a 8.4% increase, while EPS fell from $0.41 to $0.50, a 21.9% decline, indicating margin pressure despite top‑line growth. The company beat estimates in Q4 2024 (EPS $0.69 vs. $0.667) and Q3 2025 (EPS $0.52 vs. $0.556), but missed in Q1 2025 and Q2 2025, showing a mixed pattern of earnings performance. Historically, Starbucks has maintained steady revenue growth year over year, with EPS often trailing analyst expectations; for example, the 2024 fiscal year saw a 7.9% global comparable sales increase but a 31% EPS beat, underscoring a recurring theme of revenue expansion coupled with earnings volatility. Recent news highlights a court ruling on labor relations, a potential sale of its Japan unit, and a $100 million Nashville hub investment, all of which could influence short‑term earnings through litigation costs, capital allocation shifts, and corporate restructuring. Investors should watch the upcoming earnings call for updates on the Japan sale timeline, the Nashville hub’s operational rollout, and any changes to labor policy that may affect cost structures, as these factors will be key to understanding the company’s near‑term earnings trajectory.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.34$0.49$0.63$0.77$0.92Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$0.60 - -
Q3'26$0.68$0.85+25.4%
Q2'26$0.63$0.50-21.1%
Q3'25$0.56$0.52-6.5%
Q2'25$0.65$0.50-22.5%
Q1'25$0.48$0.41-15.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$8.6B$8.9B$9.3B$9.6B$10.0BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$9.8B - -
Q3'26$9.3B$9.3B-0.2%
Q2'26$9.0B$9.5B+5.7%
Q3'25 - $9.6B -
Q2'25 - $9.5B -
Q1'25 - $8.8B -

Market Data

SBUX Stock Snapshot

SELL14/100
$95.98+$0.18 (0.2%)
Market cap
110.20B
P/E ratio
55.6
Day range
$95.11 – $96.95
News sentiment
43/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$112.23 (+16.9%)
Consensus
Hold · 46 analysts
52-week range+23.8% off low · -16.9% from high
$77.50$115.51
Price $95.98 DailyIQ Est. $113.52

Starbucks Corporation is trading in the middle of its 52-week range with momentum still pointing lower. In Consumer Cyclical, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into SBUX?

RICH

At today's price, Starbucks Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 29.6% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 8.56% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 10.9% a year, so the market is asking for 18.7 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis SBUX looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
29.6%
Historical FCF CAGR
10.9%
Growth gap
+18.7 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
8.56%
Beta
0.90

Behaviour On Record

What SBUX's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
22.0% 52nd pct
Below its peak
-24.4%
vs 200-day average
-2.5%
Up days (1y)
51%

Starbucks Corporation is currently running 22.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against SBUX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 52nd percentile close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 21.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

SBUX is trading -24.4% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -19.9%, and the deepest was -40.1% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -2.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 31st percentile close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year SBUX closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, SBUX finished the month higher 3 of 13 times, with a median return of -3.0% and an average of -2.3%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +6.2% on average, its weakest September at -2.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: SBUX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 29 of 3,267 sessions (0.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +4.2% and -5.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, SBUX moved an average of 2.0% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +0.8% and a largest of -2.9%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against SBUX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of SBUX's sector?

Starbucks Corporation sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 10th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#10 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
10

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for SBUX?

CallsPuts

For Starbucks Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 5 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.47), with at-the-money implied volatility around 35.5%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±3.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $93.18–$100.78.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.47
ATM implied volatility
35.5%
Total open interest
6,974
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±3.9% ($93.18–$100.78)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on SBUX?

Seaport Global most recently initiated coverage on Starbucks Corporation to Neutral on Sep 16, 2026. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Seaport GlobalNeutral
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 16, 2026Seaport GlobalInitiatedNeutral-
Jul 31, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$115
Jul 30, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$105 → $112
Jul 30, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$108 → $112
Jul 30, 2026BNP ParibasMaintainedUnderperform$87 → $92
Jul 30, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$110 → $115
Jul 30, 2026DA DavidsonMaintainedNeutral$102 → $110
Jul 30, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedOutperform$115 → $120
Jul 30, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$120 → $125
Jul 30, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$111 → $115
Jul 30, 2026TD CowenReiteratedBuy$120
Jul 16, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$115 → $120

SBUX Competitive Positioning

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is tracked alongside these names in Restaurants on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.