DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updated1 minute ago

DRI·Darden Restaurants, Inc.

$209.42
+2.68 (+1.30%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$209.28-0.14 (-0.07%)
High
$210.40
Open
$206.59
Market Cap
23.56B
52W High
$229.77
Low
$205.70
P. Close
$209.42
P/E
19.53
52W Low
$169.00
Fwd P/E
16.91
DailyIQ Est.
$240.75
Inst. Ownership
56.2%
Short Interest
5.91%
Days to Cover
7.2
Technical Score (1D)
32
SELL
News Sentiment
68
BULLISH
The most immediate change is that Darden Restaurants is currently offering a dividend yield of roughly 5.6 %, comfortably above the 3 % threshold that many income‑focused investors use to screen for attractive payouts. This high yield signals that the company is prioritizing shareholder return, which may provide a cushion for the stock in the short term as investors seek stable income amid rising rates. However, the yield itself is not tied to any new earnings guidance or operational catalyst, so it is unlikely to drive a significant price move on its own. In the next few days, the focus will shift to the upcoming Q1 2024 earnings report scheduled for September 24. Analysts now project a 4.1 % year‑over‑year earnings increase, with EPS expected at $2.05 and revenue at $3.21 billion, both above recent consensus estimates. If Darden delivers on these forecasts, the market will interpret that as a sign that its menu‑price strategy and cost‑control measures are working, potentially lifting the stock in the short term. Watch for any deviation from these projections, especially any commentary on margin trends or cost pressures, as that will be a key driver of post‑earnings volatility. Shortly before the earnings release, Darden is set to reaffirm its fiscal 2027 guidance, with early signs of stronger Olive Garden traffic and sales. The reaffirmation indicates management confidence in the brand’s recovery trajectory, but the lack of a concrete upside catalyst keeps upside potential modest. Investors should monitor whether the company can translate traffic gains into sustained revenue growth and maintain its cash‑flow profile, as this will influence the durability of any earnings‑beat‑driven rally.
Earnings Summary
Darden Restaurants, Inc. operates a portfolio of full‑service dining brands such as Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, positioning it as a major player in the North American casual dining sector. The company’s strategy centers on leveraging franchise models and menu innovation to drive traffic and margins within a consumer‑cyclical environment. In the most recent quarters, DRI reported Q2 2026 revenue of $3.102 billion, slightly above the $3.101 billion estimate, and EPS of $2.08 versus an estimate of $2.124, indicating a modest miss on earnings but a revenue beat. Q3 2026 revenue reached $3.345 billion, surpassing the $3.330 billion estimate, and EPS of $2.95 exceeded the $2.941 estimate, reflecting a stronger performance in the second half of the year. Compared to Q1 and Q2 2025, revenue growth slowed from a 3.6% increase to a 1.4% rise, while EPS growth decelerated from a 6.4% rise to a 1.7% decline, showing a mixed trend of revenue stability but earnings pressure. Historically, DRI has delivered year‑over‑year revenue growth in the mid‑single digits, with EPS often trailing due to cost inflation; the company has consistently beat revenue estimates in the last four quarters but missed EPS in two of those periods, underscoring a pattern of top‑line resilience amid margin compression. Recent news highlights a reaffirmation of fiscal 2027 guidance amid early signs of stronger Olive Garden traffic, suggesting that traffic gains could translate into higher top‑line and cash flow metrics; analysts remain bullish, citing menu innovation and franchise strength as growth drivers. Investors should watch the upcoming Q1 2027 earnings release for confirmation that Olive Garden traffic is materializing into revenue growth, assess any guidance revisions that could shift the 2027 outlook, and monitor broader casual dining sentiment, as these factors will likely influence DRI’s valuation in the near term.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.82$2.15$2.48$2.80$3.13Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$2.05 - -
Q3'26$2.94$2.95+0.3%
Q2'26$2.12$2.08-2.0%
Q4'25$2.10$2.08-0.8%
Q3'25$2.01$1.97-2.0%
Q2'25$2.97$2.98+0.4%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$3.0B$3.1B$3.2B$3.3B$3.4BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$3.2B - -
Q3'26$3.3B$3.3B+0.4%
Q2'26$3.1B$3.1B+0.0%
Q4'25 - $3.1B -
Q3'25 - $3.0B -
Q2'25 - $3.3B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

DRI Stock Snapshot

SELL32/100
$209.28−$0.14 (0.1%)
Market cap
23.56B
P/E ratio
19.5
Day range
$205.70 – $210.40
News sentiment
68/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$232.96 (+11.3%)
Consensus
Hold · 34 analysts
52-week range+23.8% off low · -8.9% from high
$169.00$229.77
Price $209.28 DailyIQ Est. $240.75

The trend on DRI is bearish, and the indicator set is confirming it rather than diverging. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into DRI?

FAIR

At today's price, Darden Restaurants, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 6.7% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 7.77% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 9.5% a year, so the market is asking for 2.8 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis DRI looks priced roughly in line with its own growth record.

Implied FCF growth
6.7%
Historical FCF CAGR
9.5%
Growth gap
-2.8 pts
Verdict
FAIR
Discount rate (WACC)
7.77%
Beta
0.63

Behaviour On Record

What DRI's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
31.9% 79th pct
Below its peak
-8.0%
vs 200-day average
+3.3%
Up days (1y)
51%

Darden Restaurants, Inc. is currently running 31.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against DRI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 79th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 23.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

DRI is trading -8.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -19.3%, and the deepest was -69.9% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +3.3% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 42nd percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year DRI closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, DRI finished the month higher 5 of 13 times, with a median return of -0.7% and an average of -0.2%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.6% on average, its weakest March at -1.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: DRI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 126 of 3,268 sessions (3.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.4% and -11.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against DRI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of DRI's sector?

Darden Restaurants, Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 10th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#10 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
10

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for DRI?

CallsPuts

For Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 27 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.44), with at-the-money implied volatility around 43.9%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±11.4% move by that expiry — a range of about $183.47–$230.64.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
0.44
ATM implied volatility
43.9%
Total open interest
4,378
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±11.4% ($183.47–$230.64)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on DRI?

Seaport Global most recently initiated coverage on Darden Restaurants, Inc. to Buy on Sep 16, 2026 with a price target of $240. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 1 downgrade, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Seaport Global — Buy
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
1
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 16, 2026Seaport GlobalInitiatedBuy$240
Sep 15, 2026OppenheimerMaintainedOutperform$235 → $245
Sep 14, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$236 → $255
Sep 11, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$245 → $248
Sep 11, 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainedEqual-Weight$216 → $220
Aug 27, 2026KeybancMaintainedOverweight$228 → $237
Aug 24, 2026BairdUpgradeNeutral → Outperform$220 → $250
Jun 30, 2026Argus ResearchMaintainedBuy$240 → $245
Jun 26, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$230 → $240
Jun 26, 2026Deutsche BankMaintainedBuy$230 → $236
Jun 26, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedNeutral$208 → $212
Jun 26, 2026BairdMaintainedNeutral$210 → $220

DRI Competitive Positioning

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is tracked alongside these names in Restaurants on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

DRI is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.