CMI·Cummins Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

21.3% 38th pct

Below its peak

-27.7%

vs 200-day average

-12.9%

Up days (1y)

51%

Cummins Inc. is currently running 21.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CMI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 38th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 23.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CMI is trading -27.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -21.8%, and the deepest was -42.8% in 2015. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -12.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 8th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year CMI closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, CMI finished the month higher 9 of 14 times, with a median return of +2.3% and an average of +3.0%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +3.5% on average, its weakest March at -0.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CMI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 118 of 3,268 sessions (3.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.3% and -10.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, CMI moved an average of 5.0% in the session after earnings, closing higher 3 of those 3 times, with a median move of +4.9% and a largest of +7.9%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CMI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.