DailyIQ
|
Sector:IndustrialsAll sectors
Last updated1 minute ago

FAST·Fastenal Company

$50.36
-0.45 (-0.89%)
High
$51.00
Open
$50.49
Market Cap
58.13B
52W High
$52.92
Low
$49.91
P. Close
$50.36
P/E
42.99
52W Low
$38.97
Fwd P/E
36.22
DailyIQ Est.
$48.70
Inst. Ownership
41.5%
Short Interest
3.09%
Days to Cover
5.8
Technical Score (1D)
86
BULLISH
News Sentiment
69
BULLISH
On Oct 7, FAST reported that it had achieved a 528 % compound growth over the past decade, largely driven by long‑term service contracts that include built‑in price escalators, which analysts said reduce churn and secure steady revenue. The company’s business model focuses on essential services such as garbage collection, uniform delivery, elevator maintenance, and parts distribution, which remain in demand regardless of economic cycles. Analysts noted that the stability of these contracts positions FAST for continued expansion, though integration risks and regulatory scrutiny could pose challenges. On Oct 6, Fastenal Company disclosed a 21.52 % return on assets and a 34.33 % return on equity, outperforming typical commodity distributors, and highlighted that its strategy of installing vending machines and staffed supply points within customers’ factories keeps inventory on the production floor, reducing downtime and switching costs. The same report noted that revenue grew 14.70 % year‑over‑year in the most recent quarter, reinforcing the company’s robust growth trajectory. Both sources emphasized that the physical proximity moat and long‑term contracts are key drivers of the companies’ high profitability and customer loyalty.
LOW TARGET
$40 -20.8%
4 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$49 -3.0%
13 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$59 +17.2%
9 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$39.90 - $59.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
7/4/10/3/2
DAILYIQ EST.
$48.70 (-3.3%)
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Industrial Distribution
Exchange
NMS
Country
United States
Website
fastenal.com
Symbol
FAST
Description
Fastenal Company is a global distributor specializing in industrial and construction supplies, serving diverse markets across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and other international locations. Its core offering centers on fasteners, including bolts, nuts, and screws, essential components for manufacturing, construction, and equipment maintenance. Beyond fasteners, Fastenal provides a comprehensive selection of related hardware and miscellaneous supplies, catering to a broad customer base that includes manufacturers, construction firms, and governmental entities. The company's value proposition lies in its extensive product range and its ability to serve a wide array of industries, solidifying its position as a key supplier in the industrial and construction sectors. Founded in 1967 and headquartered in Winona, Minnesota, Fastenal has established a long-standing presence in the market.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
50,222 shares
$2.5M
Ancius Michael J-
Gift400 shares2026-08-13
Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenEVP-Strategy and Communication
Option Exercise7,894 shares2026-08-13
Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenEVP-Strategy and Communication
Option Exercise1,364 shares2026-08-13
Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenEVP-Strategy and Communication
Sell7,894 shares2026-08-13
Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenEVP-Strategy and Communication
Option Exercise7,894 shares2026-08-13
View full insider trading history →
77/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
45.0%
Net Margin
15.3%
Revenue CAGR
8.0%
Current Ratio
4.85x
Debt / Equity
0.03x
Return on Equity
31.9%
View full financials →
Earnings Summary
Fastenal Company, a global distributor of industrial and construction supplies with a core focus on fasteners and related hardware, serves a diversified customer base across North America and beyond, positioning it firmly within the industrial distribution sector. In the latest two quarters, Q1 2026 and Q3 2026, Fastenal reported EPS of $0.30 and a projected $0.338, both slightly below or matching estimates of $0.323 and $0.338, while revenue declined from $2.20 billion in Q1 2026 to a projected $2.49 billion in Q3 2026, reflecting a modest 13% growth against a 2.1% increase in full‑year earnings estimates; this indicates a deceleration in revenue momentum compared to the prior year’s Q1 and Q2 where EPS were $0.26 and $0.29 and revenue $1.95 billion and $2.08 billion. Fastenal has delivered mixed results against analyst expectations, with EPS beats in Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 but misses in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, while revenue has consistently trailed estimates in the most recent quarters. Historically, the company has maintained a YoY revenue growth of around 5–7% per quarter, with earnings volatility tied to input cost pressures and supply‑chain disruptions. Recent analyst updates have upgraded Fastenal to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and raised full‑year earnings estimates by 2.1%, reflecting confidence in cost‑control and digital‑ization initiatives; however, a recent downgrade to Underperform highlights concerns over rising raw‑material costs.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.25$0.27$0.30$0.32$0.35Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.34 - -
Q1'26$0.32$0.30-7.2%
Q4'25$0.26$0.26-1.6%
Q3'25$0.30$0.29-2.2%
Q2'25$0.27$0.29+8.3%
Q1'25$0.26$0.26+0.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.9B$2.1B$2.2B$2.4B$2.6BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$2.5B - -
Q1'26$2.3B$2.2B-4.7%
Q4'25$2.1B$2.0B-2.8%
Q3'25 - $2.1B -
Q2'25 - $2.1B -
Q1'25 - $2.0B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

FAST Stock Snapshot

BULLISH86/100
$50.36−$0.45 (0.9%)
Market cap
58.13B
P/E ratio
43.0
Day range
$49.91 – $51.00
News sentiment
69/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$48.84 (-3.0%)
Consensus
Hold · 26 analysts
52-week range+29.2% off low · -4.8% from high
$38.97$52.92
Price $50.36 DailyIQ Est. $48.70

Momentum is working in FAST's favour - the indicator set leans bullish rather than mixed. Sector peers are worth watching - large caps in Industrials tend to move together on rotation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into FAST?

RICH

At today's price, Fastenal Company needs to grow free cash flow about 34.8% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.07% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 12.5% a year, so the market is asking for 22.3 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis FAST looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
34.8%
Historical FCF CAGR
12.5%
Growth gap
+22.3 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
9.07%
Beta
0.76

Behaviour On Record

What FAST's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
15.3% 9th pct
Below its peak
-3.4%
vs 200-day average
+9.7%
Up days (1y)
51%

Fastenal Company is currently running 15.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against FAST's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 9th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 23.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

FAST is trading -3.4% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.4%, and the deepest was -29.6% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +9.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 69th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year FAST closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, FAST finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +2.0% and an average of +1.4%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.5% on average, its weakest September at -1.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: FAST has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 87 of 3,267 sessions (2.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.0% and -6.3%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against FAST's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of FAST's sector?

Fastenal Company sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 8th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#8 of 12
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
18

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for FAST?

CallsPuts

For Fastenal Company's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 9 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 2.63), with at-the-money implied volatility around 46.1%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±7.6% move by that expiry — a range of about $46.36–$53.96.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
2.63
ATM implied volatility
46.1%
Total open interest
23,424
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±7.6% ($46.36–$53.96)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on FAST?

Morgan Stanley most recently reiterated its rating on Fastenal Company to Equal-Weight on Jul 16, 2026 with a price target of $52 (from $48). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Morgan Stanley — Equal-Weight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Jul 16, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$48 → $52
Jul 16, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$47 → $46
Jul 15, 2026DA DavidsonMaintainedNeutral$46
Jul 13, 2026Rothschild & CoInitiatedBuy$55
Jul 8, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$45 → $48
Jul 6, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$46 → $47
Jun 16, 2026DA DavidsonInitiatedNeutral$46
Jun 3, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$45 → $46
Apr 17, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$44 → $45
Apr 14, 2026BairdMaintainedOutperform$52 → $50
Mar 6, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$43 → $44
Mar 6, 2026BairdMaintainedOutperform$51 → $52

FAST Competitive Positioning

Fastenal Company (FAST) is tracked alongside these names in Industrial Distribution on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

FAST is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

69/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
MODERATELY BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
FAST achieved a 528% compound growth over the past decade by securing long‑term service contracts that include built‑in price escalators, reducing churn and ensuring steady revenue. The company’s model relies on essential services such as garbage collection, uniform delivery, elevator maintenance, and parts distribution, which remain in demand regardless of economic cycles. Analysts noted that the stability of these contracts positions FAST for continued expansion, though integration risks and regulatory scrutiny could pose challenges.
What did this article say?
Fastenal projected robust Q3 results that could support its high valuation. Analysts highlighted expected revenue growth and margin expansion driven by strong demand for industrial supplies. The company’s guidance suggests continued operational strength, reinforcing long‑term investor confidence.
What did this article say?
Fastenal Company reported a 21.52% return on assets and a 34.33% return on equity, outperforming typical commodity distributors. The company’s strategy of installing vending machines and staffed supply points within customers’ factories keeps inventory on the production floor, reducing downtime and switching costs. Revenue grew 14.70% in the most recent quarter, reinforcing the company’s robust growth trajectory. The analysis underscores Fastenal’s physical proximity moat as a key driver of its high profitability and customer loyalty.
What did this article say?
Fastenal Company (FAST) announced its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings expectations ahead of the October 14 release. Analysts projected earnings per share of $0.34, a 17.2% increase from the prior year‑quarter figure of $0.29. For the full fiscal year, guidance rose to $1.26, up 15.6% from $1.09 in 2025. The company has consistently met estimates in most recent quarters, suggesting stable performance. The outlook reflects confidence in continued demand for industrial and construction supplies across North America.
What did this article say?
A $10,000 investment in Fastenal at its 1987 IPO would be worth approximately $21.5 million by September 2026, excluding dividends. The company’s stock has undergone nine splits, expanding the original shares to over 400,000 by 2025. Fastenal’s revenue grew from $20 million at IPO to $8.2 billion in 2025, with net income near $1.26 billion, and second‑quarter 2026 sales rose 14.7% YoY. The dramatic share price appreciation reflects sustained operational expansion and market dominance in industrial distribution. This historical performance underscores Fastenal’s long‑term value creation for investors.
What did this article say?
Fastenal Company announced the date and time for its October 14, 2026 conference call to review third‑quarter 2026 results and current operations. The call will be streamed online at 9:00 a.m. central time, with a presentation available at 6:00 a.m. central time. An archived webcast will be posted shortly after the call. The announcement provides standard investor‑relations information without indicating any material change in performance or outlook.
What did this article say?
The article compares Fastenal (FAST) and Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) as dividend growth stocks, noting Fastenal’s higher valuation at 37x forward earnings versus AIT’s 28x. Fastenal’s dividend payout is 1.81% and consumes about 80% of its 2025 net income, while AIT’s 17th dividend raise is supported by a near debt‑free balance sheet. Both companies posted similar year‑to‑date gains, with Fastenal up 27.73% and AIT up 30.48%, but each saw a modest decline in the past month. The piece evaluates each firm’s moat, payout growth, coverage, and price, offering no new material developments for either stock.
What did this article say?
Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) delivered an average annual return of 17.36% over the past decade, outperforming the market by 3.72% on an annualized basis. The company’s market capitalization reached $57.74 billion as of the reporting date. The data highlight Fastenal’s consistent growth and resilience in the industrial distribution sector. No new catalysts or guidance were disclosed, indicating a steady performance rather than a sudden shift. The information serves as a benchmark for long‑term investors assessing the company’s historical performance.
What did this article say?
The Zacks Rank #2 upgrade highlights a bullish earnings outlook for Fastenal, yet the stock’s recent 30‑day slide suggests investors are re‑evaluating risk at the current price. With a 22.8% YTD rise and strong multi‑year shareholder returns, the upgrade may be a catalyst for further upside, but the price could be nearing a valuation peak.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

86
BULLISH
Technical indicators reflect the latest computed signal mix for this timeframe.
Unlock full technicals
Create a free account to access more indicators and deeper timeframe data.
Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership
25 tracked managers · $21.65B combined position · 11 adding, 13 trimming, 1 unchanged (latest 13F filings)
ManagerTrendShares Held% of Co.Position ValueFiled
Vanguard Group Inc▼ Sell151,452,41213.11%$6.08B2026-01-29
BlackRock, Inc.▲ Buy106,297,1799.20%$5.11B2026-08-07
Geode Capital Management, LLC▲ Buy39,479,6113.42%$1.90B2026-08-12
Invesco Ltd.▲ Buy39,561,3243.42%$1.90B2026-08-14
Morgan Stanley▼ Sell20,855,7261.80%$1.00B2026-08-13
Bank of America Corp▼ Sell16,121,2141.40%$774.30M2026-08-14
JPMorgan Chase & Co▲ Buy15,727,8741.36%$745.50M2026-08-12
Norges Bank▼ Sell15,420,0601.33%$740.63M2026-08-12
Goldman Sachs Group Inc▲ Buy14,258,2751.23%$684.82M2026-08-14
Northern Trust Corp▼ Sell13,677,2531.18%$656.92M2026-08-13
Wellington Management Group LLP▼ Sell10,754,6740.93%$516.55M2026-08-14
Wells Fargo & Company▲ Buy5,344,7670.46%$256.71M2026-08-14
FMR LLC (Fidelity)▼ Sell5,184,3450.45%$249.00M2026-08-13
Millennium Management LLC▲ Buy3,006,8170.26%$144.42M2026-08-14
Citadel Advisors LLC• Hold2,913,9830.25%$139.96M2026-09-02
AQR Capital Management LLC▲ Buy2,473,3230.21%$116.84M2026-08-14
Squarepoint Ops LLC▼ Sell2,334,6960.20%$112.14M2026-08-14
Citigroup Inc▼ Sell2,124,9880.18%$102.06M2026-08-03
Susquehanna International Group, LLP▼ Sell1,999,7650.17%$96.05M2026-08-14
Baillie Gifford & Co▼ Sell1,783,8100.15%$85.68M2026-08-06
Neuberger Berman Group LLC▲ Buy1,464,3290.13%$70.33M2026-08-13
Balyasny Asset Management L.P.▲ Buy1,339,7780.12%$62.17M2026-05-15
AllianceBernstein L.P.▼ Sell1,185,0610.10%$54.99M2026-08-14
Marshall Wace, LLP▲ Buy628,1000.05%$30.17M2026-08-13
Gotham Asset Management, LLC▼ Sell567,5470.05%$27.26M2026-08-14
Q2 2026 flow:43.16M sh bought ($2.07B)17.70M sh sold ($850.22M)net +25.46M sh (+$1.22B)
View full institutional holdings history →
Congressional Trading Activity
3 disclosed trades · ~$48.5K est. traded value · 0 buys, 3 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Josh GottheimerHouseNJ05▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-04-092025-05-14
Sheri BiggsHouseSC03▼ Sell$15K - $50K2025-03-192025-10-05
Tommy TubervilleSenateAL▼ Sell$1K - $15K2022-10-052022-11-10
View full congressional trading history →

Discover More

WM
Waste Management, Inc.
$210.46
+1.24%
CAH
Cardinal Health, Inc.
$232.66
-0.33%
LRCX
Lam Research Corporation
$327.41
-1.94%
MCK
McKesson Corporation
$915.19
-0.70%
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
$277.67
-1.30%
UBER
Uber Technologies, Inc.
$68.49
-0.85%
XLI
Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund
$168.15
-2.00%
DE
Deere & Company
$661.23
-3.16%
XYZ
Block, Inc.
$76.05
-0.64%
IEX
IDEX Corporation
$233.73
-1.08%