Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Price, News, Analysis

Technical Score (1D)

BUY

News Sentiment

MIXED

Wolfe Research’s 7.6‑hour‑old downgrade of Fastenal to Underperform, with a $51 price target, signals that rising input costs and a crowded competitive landscape are now weighing on the company’s margin outlook. The analyst’s concern that higher raw‑material prices and tighter pricing power could erode profitability suggests that the next 1–10 trading days may see a cautious market reaction as investors reassess the firm’s earnings buffer. In contrast, Zacks’ 23‑hour‑old upgrade to a Rank #2 Buy reflects consensus optimism that Fastenal’s earnings estimates for the current and next fiscal year have risen, implying a stronger near‑term earnings trajectory that could buoy investor sentiment. The two viewpoints highlight a tension between short‑term margin pressure and medium‑term earnings growth expectations. Traders should watch how the market reconciles these signals, particularly in the upcoming earnings release, where guidance will clarify whether the company can maintain margin expansion amid cost pressures. A key watch item is the company’s cost‑control initiatives and any updates on supply‑chain efficiencies that could offset input cost increases. Additionally, monitoring the competitive dynamics in the fast‑moving consumer goods and industrial distribution sectors will help gauge whether Fastenal can sustain its market share. Finally, keep an eye on any regulatory or macroeconomic developments that could impact construction and manufacturing demand, as these are core drivers of Fastenal’s revenue mix.

FAST|Analyst Targets

LOW TARGET

$40 -19.6%

4 analysts

MEAN TARGET

$49 -1.5%

13 analysts

HIGH TARGET

$59 +18.9%

9 analysts

PRICE RANGE

$39.90 - $59.00

SB / B / H / S / SS

7/4/10/3/2

DAILYIQ EST.

$48.70 (-1.8%)

FAST|Company Info

Sector

Industrials

Industry

Industrial Distribution

Exchange

NMS

Country

United States

Website

fastenal.com

Symbol

FAST

Description

Fastenal Company is a global distributor specializing in industrial and construction supplies, serving diverse markets across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and other international locations. Its core offering centers on fasteners, including bolts, nuts, and screws, essential components for manufacturing, construction, and equipment maintenance. Beyond fasteners, Fastenal provides a comprehensive selection of related hardware and miscellaneous supplies, catering to a broad customer base that includes manufacturers, construction firms, and governmental entities. The company's value proposition lies in its extensive product range and its ability to serve a wide array of industries, solidifying its position as a key supplier in the industrial and construction sectors. Founded in 1967 and headquartered in Winona, Minnesota, Fastenal has established a long-standing presence in the market.

FAST|Insider Trading

Bought (1Y)

0 shares

Sold (1Y)

50,222 shares

$2.5M

Ancius Michael J-

Gift400 shares2026-08-13

Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenEVP-Strategy and Communication

Option Exercise7,894 shares2026-08-13

Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenEVP-Strategy and Communication

Option Exercise1,364 shares2026-08-13

Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenEVP-Strategy and Communication

Sell7,894 shares2026-08-13

Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenEVP-Strategy and Communication

Option Exercise7,894 shares2026-08-13

FAST|Fundamentals

Bullish

Verdict: Bullish

✓Revenue growing year over year

✓Positive net margin

✓Positive operating cash flow

Gross Margin

45.0%

Net Margin

15.3%

Revenue CAGR

8.0%

Current Ratio

4.85x

Debt / Equity

0.03x

Return on Equity

31.9%

FAST|Earnings Snapshot

Earnings Summary

Fastenal Company, a global distributor of industrial and construction supplies, specializes in fasteners and related hardware, serving manufacturers, construction firms, and government entities across North America and beyond. In recent quarters, Fastenal’s EPS hovered around $0.23 in Q4 2024, $0.26 in Q1 2025, and $0.29 in Q2 2025, with revenue growing from $1.82 billion to $2.08 billion, indicating modest earnings stability and a 14% YoY revenue increase; however, Q4 2025 EPS dipped to $0.26 versus a $0.26 estimate and revenue fell to $2.03 billion from $2.08 billion, suggesting a slight contraction. Historically, Fastenal has maintained a steady earnings trajectory, with EPS generally meeting or exceeding estimates over the past eight quarters, while revenue growth has been consistent, though recent guidance revisions have introduced some volatility; the company’s defensive profile remains intact despite competitive pressures. Recent analyst commentary includes a downgrade to Underperform citing rising input costs and a Zacks upgrade to Rank #2 Buy reflecting optimism on earnings estimates, highlighting a tension between short‑term margin concerns and medium‑term earnings prospects. Investors should watch for the company’s cost‑control initiatives, any updates on supply‑chain efficiencies, and the impact of commodity price movements on input costs, as these factors will influence Fastenal’s margin resilience and earnings outlook in the forthcoming quarter.

Read full report

EPS

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$0.34	-	-
Q1'26	$0.32	$0.30	-7.2%
Q4'25	$0.26	$0.26	-1.6%
Q3'25	$0.30	$0.29	-2.2%
Q2'25	$0.27	$0.29	+8.3%
Q1'25	$0.26	$0.26	+0.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$2.5B	-	-
Q1'26	$2.3B	$2.2B	-4.7%
Q4'25	$2.1B	$2.0B	-2.8%
Q3'25	-	$2.1B	-
Q2'25	-	$2.1B	-
Q1'25	-	$2.0B	-

Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context

→

FAST|Monthly Returns

Market Data

FAST Stock Snapshot

HOLD59/100

$49.60+$0.64 (1.3%)

Market cap: 56.43B
P/E ratio: 41.7
Day range: $48.56 – $49.60
News sentiment: 48/100 · Neutral
Analyst target: $48.84 (-1.5%)
Consensus: Hold · 26 analysts

52-week range+27.3% off low · -6.3% from high

$38.97$52.92

Price $49.60 DailyIQ Est. $48.70

FAST sits in the upper part of its 52-week range with the technical picture unresolved. Sector peers are worth watching - large caps in Industrials tend to move together on rotation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into FAST?

RICH

At today's price, Fastenal Company needs to grow free cash flow about 32.6% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 8.75% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 12.5% a year, so the market is asking for 20.1 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis FAST looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth: 32.6%
Historical FCF CAGR: 12.5%
Growth gap: +20.1 pts
Verdict: RICH
Discount rate (WACC): 8.75%
Beta: 0.76

Behaviour On Record

What FAST's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d): 24.2% 53rd pct
Below its peak: -6.6%
vs 200-day average: +7.2%
Up days (1y): 51%

Fastenal Company is currently running 24.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against FAST's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 53rd percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 23.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

FAST is trading -6.6% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.4%, and the deepest was -29.6% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +7.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 59th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year FAST closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, FAST finished the month higher 5 of 13 times, with a median return of -2.4% and an average of -1.2%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.5% on average, its weakest September at -1.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: FAST has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 87 of 3,267 sessions (2.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.0% and -6.3%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against FAST's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of FAST's sector?

Fastenal Company sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank: #11 of 11
Sector state: Improving
Sector rotation score: 30

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for FAST?

CallsPuts

For Fastenal Company's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 27 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 4.35), with at-the-money implied volatility around 37.6%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±9.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $44.36–$54.08.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16): 4.35
ATM implied volatility: 37.6%
Total open interest: 18,159
Expected move by 2026-10-16: ±9.9% ($44.36–$54.08)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on FAST?

Morgan Stanley most recently reiterated its rating on Fastenal Company to Equal-Weight on Jul 16, 2026 with a price target of $52 (from $48). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action: Morgan Stanley — Equal-Weight
90-day upgrades: 0
90-day downgrades: 0
Net rating momentum: 0

Date	Firm	Action	Rating	Price target
Jul 16, 2026	Morgan Stanley	Maintained	Equal-Weight	$48 → $52
Jul 16, 2026	Barclays	Maintained	Equal-Weight	$47 → $46
Jul 15, 2026	DA Davidson	Maintained	Neutral	$46
Jul 13, 2026	Rothschild & Co	Initiated	Buy	$55
Jul 8, 2026	Morgan Stanley	Maintained	Equal-Weight	$45 → $48
Jul 6, 2026	Barclays	Maintained	Equal-Weight	$46 → $47
Jun 16, 2026	DA Davidson	Initiated	Neutral	$46
Jun 3, 2026	Barclays	Maintained	Equal-Weight	$45 → $46
Apr 17, 2026	Barclays	Maintained	Equal-Weight	$44 → $45
Apr 14, 2026	Baird	Maintained	Outperform	$52 → $50
Mar 6, 2026	Barclays	Maintained	Equal-Weight	$43 → $44
Mar 6, 2026	Baird	Maintained	Outperform	$51 → $52

FAST Competitive Positioning

Fastenal Company (FAST) is tracked alongside these names in Industrial Distribution on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

FASTyou're hereFastenal Company$56.4B+1.31%
GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.$59.4B+0.01%
POOLPool Corporation$6.1B0.00%

Held by These ETFs

FAST is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

48/100

Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive

MIXED

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles

What did this article say?

Wolfe Research has downgraded Fastenal to an Underperform rating, citing concerns over margin pressure and a competitive landscape that may limit growth. The analyst has set a $51 price target, which sits below the current market price, indicating a potential downside scenario. This downgrade reflects a reassessment of Fastenal’s growth prospects amid rising input costs and uncertain demand.

What did this article say?

Fastenal (FAST) received a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) upgrade, reflecting a consensus view of improving earnings estimates. The rating change signals that analysts expect a positive earnings trajectory, which is a key driver of near‑term price action. The upgrade is based on upward revisions to the company’s EPS forecasts for the current and following years, suggesting stronger profitability prospects. Investors may view this as a catalyst for a potential upside in FAST’s share price. The rating shift also highlights the company’s ability to generate consistent earnings growth, which could support future dividend or share‑repurchase initiatives.

What did this article say?

Fastenal has delivered an average annual return of 12.33% over the past two decades, outperforming the broader market by 3.18% on an annualized basis. The company’s market capitalization stands at $56.23 billion, reflecting sustained investor confidence. While the data highlights strong historical performance, it does not signal an imminent change in guidance or strategy. Traders should note that the figure is a retrospective metric rather than a forward‑looking catalyst.

What did this article say?

Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) has outperformed the broader market for a decade, delivering a split‑adjusted return of 529.21%. The company’s steady revenue streams—from waste management contracts to elevator inspections and fastener sales—provide a resilient business model that investors often overlook. Analysts note that the firm’s consistent cash flow and low volatility make it a defensive play in cyclical environments. The article highlights Fastenal’s position among other “boring” stocks that quietly outperform, underscoring its potential as a long‑term value investment.

What did this article say?

Fastenal (FAST) has fallen 7.8% from its 52‑week high, reflecting a broader underperformance relative to the Dow. The company’s robust distribution network and technology investments remain unchanged, but recent market sentiment has weighed on its valuation. Analysts note that the stock’s recent gains of 4.7% over three months are modest compared to peers, suggesting limited upside momentum. The lack of new catalysts or earnings guidance keeps the outlook neutral to slightly negative.

What did this article say?

Zacks Equity Research highlights Fastenal (FAST) as a beneficiary of the industrial services sector’s recovery, citing cost‑control initiatives and digitalization efforts. The company is actively cutting operating expenses, boosting productivity, and investing in automation to protect margins amid rising costs and supply‑chain disruptions. These moves are expected to support sustainable growth and strengthen FAST’s market position as manufacturing and e‑commerce demand rebound. The outlook suggests a positive trajectory for the firm, with industry‑wide catalysts likely to translate into incremental earnings momentum.

What did this article say?

Fastenal (FAST) has posted stronger year‑to‑date returns than its industrial peers, including Kubota Corp. The outperformance is driven by robust demand for Fastenal’s distribution network and a higher mix of high‑margin products. The company’s operating margin has improved, and its cash flow generation remains solid. Investors should watch for the upcoming earnings release to confirm whether the trend continues and to assess any guidance updates.

What did this article say?

Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) has delivered a 16.85% annualized return over the past decade, outperforming the broader market by 3.35%. The company’s market cap stands at $58.68 billion. While the data underscores strong historical performance, it does not signal an immediate change in guidance or strategy. Investors should note the long‑term growth trend but await new earnings releases or strategic announcements for actionable insights.

What did this article say?

Fastenal (FAST) posted a 17% jump in construction sales in Q2 2026, the second straight quarter at this pace, driven by robust infrastructure and data‑center projects. Strong activity in electrical and utility markets further bolstered demand, while new customer wins and higher share of wallet amplified daily sales growth. The company’s exposure to project‑driven demand positions it to deepen relationships and capture additional industrial supply opportunities.

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Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership

25 tracked managers · $21.65B combined position · 11 adding, 13 trimming, 1 unchanged (latest 13F filings)

Manager	Trend	Shares Held	% of Co.	Position Value	Filed
Vanguard Group Inc	▼ Sell	151,452,412	13.31%	$6.08B	2026-01-29
BlackRock, Inc.	▲ Buy	106,297,179	9.34%	$5.11B	2026-08-07
Geode Capital Management, LLC	▲ Buy	39,479,611	3.47%	$1.90B	2026-08-12
Invesco Ltd.	▲ Buy	39,561,324	3.48%	$1.90B	2026-08-14
Morgan Stanley	▼ Sell	20,855,726	1.83%	$1.00B	2026-08-13
Bank of America Corp	▼ Sell	16,121,214	1.42%	$774.30M	2026-08-14
JPMorgan Chase & Co	▲ Buy	15,727,874	1.38%	$745.50M	2026-08-12
Norges Bank	▼ Sell	15,420,060	1.36%	$740.63M	2026-08-12
Goldman Sachs Group Inc	▲ Buy	14,258,275	1.25%	$684.82M	2026-08-14
Northern Trust Corp	▼ Sell	13,677,253	1.20%	$656.92M	2026-08-13
Wellington Management Group LLP	▼ Sell	10,754,674	0.95%	$516.55M	2026-08-14
Wells Fargo & Company	▲ Buy	5,344,767	0.47%	$256.71M	2026-08-14
FMR LLC (Fidelity)	▼ Sell	5,184,345	0.46%	$249.00M	2026-08-13
Millennium Management LLC	▲ Buy	3,006,817	0.26%	$144.42M	2026-08-14
Citadel Advisors LLC	• Hold	2,913,983	0.26%	$139.96M	2026-09-02
AQR Capital Management LLC	▲ Buy	2,473,323	0.22%	$116.84M	2026-08-14
Squarepoint Ops LLC	▼ Sell	2,334,696	0.21%	$112.14M	2026-08-14
Citigroup Inc	▼ Sell	2,124,988	0.19%	$102.06M	2026-08-03
Susquehanna International Group, LLP	▼ Sell	1,999,765	0.18%	$96.05M	2026-08-14
Baillie Gifford & Co	▼ Sell	1,783,810	0.16%	$85.68M	2026-08-06
Neuberger Berman Group LLC	▲ Buy	1,464,329	0.13%	$70.33M	2026-08-13
Balyasny Asset Management L.P.	▲ Buy	1,339,778	0.12%	$62.17M	2026-05-15
AllianceBernstein L.P.	▼ Sell	1,185,061	0.10%	$54.99M	2026-08-14
Marshall Wace, LLP	▲ Buy	628,100	0.06%	$30.17M	2026-08-13
Gotham Asset Management, LLC	▼ Sell	567,547	0.05%	$27.26M	2026-08-14

Q2 2026 flow:43.16M sh bought ($2.07B)17.70M sh sold ($850.22M)net +25.46M sh (+$1.22B)

Congressional Trading Activity

2 disclosed trades · ~$40.5K est. traded value · 0 buys, 2 sells

Member	Chamber	State	Type	Amount	Traded	Filed
Josh Gottheimer	House	NJ05	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-04-09	2025-05-14
Sheri Biggs	House	SC03	▼ Sell	$15K - $50K	2025-03-19	2025-10-05

FAST·Fastenal Company

EPS

Revenue

FAST Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into FAST?

What FAST's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of FAST's sector?

What is the options market pricing for FAST?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on FAST?

FAST Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

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News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Market Status

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Portfolio

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Portfolio News

Economic Events

Earnings Events

Economic News

FAST·Fastenal Company

EPS

Revenue

FAST Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into FAST?

What FAST's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of FAST's sector?

What is the options market pricing for FAST?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on FAST?

FAST Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

Market Status

Recently Viewed

Portfolio

Email Alerts

Portfolio News

Economic Events

Earnings Events

Economic News