ELAN·Elanco Animal Health Incorporated

Realized volatility (21d)

19.5% 3rd pct

Below its peak

-37.6%

vs 200-day average

-3.8%

Up days (1y)

52%

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated is currently running 19.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ELAN's own 8 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 3rd percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 39.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ELAN is trading -37.6% below its running peak. Across 7 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -36.9%, and the deepest was -60.6% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -3.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 46th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year ELAN closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 8 years of records, ELAN finished the month higher 5 of 8 times, with a median return of +2.9% and an average of -1.6%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +8.8% on average, its weakest March at -8.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ELAN has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 246 of 2,023 sessions (12.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.9% and -12.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,024 daily closes between 2018-09-20 and 2026-10-09, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ELAN's own 8-year history, not a peer group or index.