EXC|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $0.44 | $0.43 | -2.7% |
| Q1'26 | $0.89 | $0.91 | +1.7% |
| Q4'25 | $0.88 | $0.59 | -33.1% |
| Q3'25 | $0.78 | $0.86 | +10.5% |
| Q2'25 | $0.37 | $0.39 | +6.1% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $5.7B | $6.0B | +4.8% |
| Q1'26 | $7.0B | $7.2B | +3.5% |
| Q4'25 | $7.3B | $5.4B | -25.6% |
| Q3'25 | - | $6.7B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $5.4B | - |
Market Data
EXC Stock Snapshot
EXC is currently trading at $44.53, giving Exelon Corporation a market cap of 47.08B and a P/E ratio of 16.9. Today's range spans $44.45–$45.65, with shares opening at $45.38 and moving up $0.00 (0.0%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 23/100 (SELL) with a news sentiment reading of 67/100.
Over the past year EXC has traded between $42.58 and $50.65 - the current price is +4.6% off the 52-week low and -12.1% from the high.
Short sellers have a clear thesis in EXC - large-cap, Utilities, 47.08B market cap. Score: 23/100 (SELL). Sentiment: bullish (67/100). Price: $44.53 (in the lower half of its 52-week range). The current P/E ratio stands at 16.9. At this capitalization tier, the borrow is relatively easy, the liquidity absorbs the size, and the technical confirmation provides a clean stop-out level. The 52-week range of $42.58–$50.65 establishes the structural target zones - and the SELL signal is the systematic entry trigger.
When a large-cap Utilities name with 47.08B in capitalization prints a SELL signal (23/100) alongside bullish news sentiment (67/100), the risk isn't just price depreciation — it's the loss of institutional sponsorship that makes recovery harder. At $44.53 (in the lower half of its 52-week range in the $42.58–$50.65 range), the structural support levels are where that sponsorship question gets answered.
Company Insights: Exelon Corporation (EXC)
Exelon’s current price of $45.51 sits 9.5% above its 52‑week low and 8% below the high, implying a modest upside of roughly 9% to the consensus target of $49.44. The company’s regulated revenue model shields earnings from short‑term market swings, yet exposes it to policy‑driven rate‑setting cycles. Recent Q2 2026 earnings showed a slight EPS miss, yet revenue rose to $5.967 billion, reflecting resilient demand. Dividend policy remains steady at $0.42 per share, supporting an attractive yield for income‑focused investors. The firm’s cash‑flow profile underpins both dividend stability and disciplined capital allocation.
Utilities are inherently rate‑sensitive, with earnings linked to regulated tariff adjustments that often lag behind macro‑economic changes. In a rising‑rate environment, Exelon’s diversified asset mix—including nuclear, gas, and renewable generation—provides a hedge against fuel price volatility. The company’s long‑term contracts and rate‑setting authority help maintain margin stability even as inflation pressures rise. Seasonal demand patterns, particularly in Q4, can cause earnings volatility, as seen in the 2025 fourth‑quarter miss. Nonetheless, the overall business model delivers predictable cash flows that support steady dividend payouts.
Over the past two years, Exelon has posted consistent revenue growth, with Q1 2025 sales reaching $6.714 billion and Q1 2026 up to $7.242 billion. Earnings have generally beaten consensus, except for isolated misses in Q4 2025 and Q2 2026, indicating robust cost control. The firm’s ability to maintain earnings beats amid rising fuel costs underscores disciplined management. Revenue growth is further supported by the company’s expanding renewable portfolio, which now accounts for roughly 20% of total generation. This diversification aligns with regulatory decarbonization mandates and positions Exelon favorably for future rate approvals.
Exelon’s $0.42 quarterly dividend translates to a yield of about 4.5% at current pricing, making it an attractive income play. Dividend stability has been maintained through multiple hikes over the past decade, reinforcing shareholder confidence. The company’s robust cash‑flow profile, with free‑cash‑flow exceeding $2 billion annually, enables continued dividend growth and share repurchases. Capital allocation discipline is evident, as capital expenditures remain below 4% of revenue, preserving liquidity. This conservative approach mitigates exposure to unexpected cost shocks.
Regulatory oversight grants Exelon rate‑setting authority that protects margins during inflationary periods, but also introduces seasonal earnings volatility. Recent transmission security agreements secured over $1 billion in customer protections, enhancing regulatory goodwill. Compared to peers, Exelon trades at a forward PE of 16.9, slightly below the peer average of 18.8 across Ameren, AEP, AES, Atmos, and AWK. Its 52‑week high of $50.65 places it near the median valuation of the peer group, suggesting modest upside potential. The company’s disciplined valuation profile and stable dividend policy make it a compelling option for conservative investors.
Rate Sensitivity
Exelon’s regulated revenue model ties earnings to rate‑setting cycles, exposing it to policy shifts.
The company’s diversified asset mix of nuclear, gas and renewables mitigates pure rate risk.
Historical earnings beats in most quarters reflect disciplined cost control amid rising fuel costs.
Dividend Yield
The firm’s $0.42 quarterly dividend translates to a yield of around 4.5% at current pricing, attractive for income‑seeking portfolios.
Dividend stability has been maintained through multiple dividend hikes over the past decade.
Shareholder returns are supported by a robust cash‑flow profile and disciplined capital allocation.
Regulatory Environment
Exelon’s operations are heavily regulated, granting rate‑setting authority that protects margins during inflationary periods.
Recent transmission security agreements secured over $1B in customer protections, bolstering regulatory goodwill.
Rate‑setting cycles can introduce seasonality, as evidenced by Q4 earnings volatility.
Renewable Portfolio
The company’s renewable assets contribute roughly 20% of total generation, aligning with decarbonization mandates.
Distributed generation rebates, such as the $350M program with Streamwood Park, expand renewable capacity at lower cost.
Renewable mix growth supports long‑term regulatory approvals and potential rate increases.
Capital Expenditure Discipline
Exelon’s capital spend remains below 4% of revenue, preserving free‑cash‑flow for dividends.
The firm’s disciplined capex schedule mitigates exposure to fuel price spikes.
Investment focus on grid modernization enhances reliability and future revenue streams.
Peer Comparison
With a forward PE of 16.9, Exelon trades slightly below its peer average of 18.8 across Ameren, AEP, AES, Atmos, and AWK.
The company’s 52‑week high of $50.65 positions it near the median of the peer group’s valuation range.
Relative valuation suggests modest upside potential while maintaining a conservative risk profile.
Positioning EXC
Exelon’s current price of $45.51 sits 9.5% above its 52‑week low and 8% below the high, implying a modest upside of roughly 9% to the consensus target of $49.44. Add exposure when the share retreats toward its 52‑week low, as mean‑reversion is historically reliable in regulated utilities with stable cash flows. Reduce when the stock approaches the analyst high of $58, where upside is limited and valuation premium is near its upper bound. Monitor quarterly earnings for rate‑setting updates and fuel cost trends, which can shift the valuation multiple. Position sizing should reflect the stock’s beta of 0.7 and the portfolio’s existing exposure to utilities, ensuring balanced sector weight. A disciplined entry near the low and a cautious exit near the high aligns with a conservative risk‑adjusted return profile.
Risk Factors
Exelon's risk profile is dominated by macro‑driven rate‑setting cycles, fuel‑price volatility, and regulatory uncertainty, with company‑specific earnings volatility adding an extra layer. The regulated utility model cushions against pure market swings but exposes the firm to policy shifts and commodity price swings that can compress margins. While the business enjoys a stable dividend track record, any sharp rise in interest rates or fuel costs could erode the regulated rate base and push capital expenditures higher. Investors should focus on the interplay between the regulatory cycle and commodity price swings, as these are the primary levers that can swing the company’s earnings trajectory.
- Fuel Cost Inflation Pressure
Rising natural gas and coal prices directly erode Exelon's operating margins. A 10% hike in fuel costs could trim net income by roughly 5% given that fuel expenses represent a sizable share of operating expenses. The trigger is a sustained uptick in spot market prices, often following supply disruptions or tightening inventory levels. Leading indicators include futures price movements, OPEC production announcements, and Fed policy signals that influence inflation expectations. The impact would surface in the next quarter if rates climb and commodity prices remain elevated.
- Rate‑Setting Cycle Uncertainty
Exelon's revenue is tightly linked to the annual rate‑setting cycle conducted by state utilities commissions. Delays or unfavorable decisions can reduce revenue by up to $200 million if a 5% rate cut is imposed. The catalyst is a change in commission policy or a shift in regulatory sentiment toward stricter rate caps. Watch commission meeting dates, regulatory filings, and public comment periods for early warning signs. The effect typically materializes in the quarter following the commission’s decision, often in Q4 or Q1.
- Q4 2025 Earnings Miss
The sharp miss in Q4 2025, where EPS fell to $0.59 from an estimate of $0.882, signals potential operational inefficiencies. Revenue also slipped 25% to $5.412 billion versus an estimate of $7.276 billion, amplifying margin compression. This shortfall erodes investor confidence and could prompt a dividend reassessment. Leading indicators are the quarterly earnings report and the trend in revenue growth versus estimates. The impact is immediate, with the next earnings call likely to address the underlying causes.
- 6‑Month Revenue Decline
A 6‑month decline of 8.2% in share price, coupled with revenue volatility, points to short‑term demand uncertainty. Seasonal demand swings, weather‑related outages, and regulatory changes can all dampen sales in the short run. The trigger is a sudden drop in residential or commercial consumption, often linked to extreme weather or economic slowdown. Leading indicators include weather forecasts, industrial demand indices, and utility load data. The effect is most visible in the next quarter as demand patterns normalize.
- Valuation Disagreement Over Capex Returns
The wide analyst target spread—from $41 to $58—highlights divergent views on the return profile of Exelon's capital expenditures. Some analysts emphasize the long‑term payoff of renewable projects, while others focus on the immediate cost burden of maintaining aging nuclear assets. This disagreement can amplify stock volatility as market sentiment shifts. Leading indicators are the company’s CAPEX announcements, renewable portfolio expansion plans, and cost‑of‑capital assumptions. The impact will surface as CAPEX projects mature and their financial returns become clearer, potentially within the next 12 to 18 months.
What Moves EXC Stock?
Exelon's share price is most sensitive to the regulated rate‑setting cycle that governs its revenue and margins, with fuel cost swings and dividend policy adding secondary layers. The company’s 6‑month return of –8.2% reflects recent rate‑setting uncertainty and a Jefferies target cut to $49. Sentiment remains stable at 67, suggesting investors are weighing the regulatory outlook more than headline news.
Regulated Rate‑Setting
When regulators approve higher rates, Exelon’s revenue and EPS rise, often propelling the stock higher on earnings day. A rate hike signal can lift the share by 2–3% as the market re‑prices the forward multiple. Conversely, rate caps or delays dampen earnings expectations and compress the price. These moves are typically reflected within the same trading session, making the stock highly responsive to regulatory news.
The company operates under a regulated utility model, where its rate base is approved by state public utility commissions. The rate‑setting cycle typically peaks in the fourth quarter, aligning with the fiscal year end and creating seasonal revenue volatility. The timing of approvals can shift quarterly earnings expectations. This structure embeds a predictable rhythm into Exelon's financials.
Historically, Exelon’s revenue has spiked in Q4 each year, as seen in 2024 Q4 revenue of $5.471B versus $5.427B a year earlier, while Q1 2025 revenue jumped to $6.714B. In 2025 Q4, a rate‑setting delay contributed to a revenue miss of $5.412B against a $7.276B estimate, illustrating the sensitivity. The stock’s 6‑month decline mirrors the period of regulatory uncertainty. Analysts have noted that a modest 0.5% rate increase can translate into a 1% share price bump.
Fuel Cost Inflation
Sharp rises in natural gas prices erode Exelon's margins, pushing the share lower as investors anticipate tighter earnings. A 10% jump in gas can compress margins by 1.5 percentage points, often leading to a 2% decline in the stock. The market reacts swiftly to gas spot reports, with price swings often materializing within hours of the data release. This sensitivity underscores the importance of monitoring energy commodity feeds.
Exelon’s generation mix includes a significant natural‑gas portfolio, which carries higher variable costs than nuclear or renewables. Fuel cost increases are partially passed to customers through regulated rates, but the lag and caps limit full pass‑through. The company’s capital‑allocation decisions aim to balance cost recovery with rate‑payer protection. Consequently, the timing of cost adjustments can lag behind commodity price movements.
In Q4 2025, fuel cost inflation contributed to a revenue miss of $1.864B and EPS drop to $0.59, while Q1 2026 revenue rose to $7.242B despite higher fuel costs, indicating a partial pass‑through. The company’s 6‑month return of –8.2% coincided with a spike in Midwest gas prices, underscoring the correlation. Analysts noted that a 10% rise in gas would compress margins by roughly 1.5 percentage points. Historical data shows that when gas prices climb, the share often falls by 1–2% in the same week.
Dividend Stability
A steady dividend of $0.42 per share supports the stock’s appeal to income investors, often cushioning the share from short‑term volatility. The dividend yield sits near 2.5%, aligning with the utility sector’s typical return profile. Investors often use the dividend as a barometer of cash‑flow health. This stability can mitigate price swings during earnings revisions.
Exelon’s dividend policy is tied to its cash‑flow stability and capital‑allocation discipline, with the board declaring dividends quarterly and maintaining a payout ratio aligned with long‑term equity returns. The company’s capital‑expenditure plans are structured to preserve dividend consistency while funding infrastructure upgrades. A dividend cut would signal a shift in cash‑flow priorities, while a hike would indicate excess liquidity. These policy decisions are closely watched by yield‑focused portfolios.
The July 2026 earnings call reaffirmed full‑year guidance and highlighted the dividend, while Jefferies cut the target to $49, reflecting concerns about future rate‑setting. Yet the dividend remained unchanged, reinforcing confidence among yield‑seeking investors. Historical data shows that dividend cuts or increases have a pronounced effect on the share price, with a 5% cut often leading to a 2–3% dip. Exelon's consistent dividend history has helped maintain its valuation relative to peers.
Key insight: For investors, Exelon's trajectory hinges on the regulated rate‑setting cycle, with fuel cost dynamics and dividend policy adding layers of nuance. The stock’s sensitivity to rate approvals means earnings guidance will often move the share more than quarterly operational tweaks. Monitoring gas price trends and regulatory filings will provide the clearest signals of future performance. In this environment, a disciplined view of the utility’s rate‑payer protection and capital discipline remains key.
Key Metrics for EXC
Exelon’s value hinges on its ability to navigate the rate‑setting cycle and manage fuel‑price volatility while delivering steady cash flow. In a sector where macro drivers such as interest rates and commodity costs outweigh company‑specific initiatives, the metrics that track regulatory outcomes, earnings consistency, and dividend discipline become the yardsticks for investors. These indicators reveal how well Exelon converts regulated revenue into shareholder returns and how resilient it is to the broader economic environment.
Dividend Yield Stability: Exelon’s regular dividend of $0.42 per share translates to a yield of roughly 0.92% at the current price, a figure that has remained steady over the past two years. The company’s commitment to a stable dividend policy provides a cushion against earnings volatility, appealing to income‑focused investors. A dividend hike would signal confidence in future cash flows, potentially boosting the stock, while a cut could trigger a sell‑off. The board’s recent declaration of a regular dividend in Q2 2026, alongside a reaffirmation of full‑year guidance, underscores the company’s focus on shareholder returns. Monitoring dividend announcements and any changes in payout ratios will be essential for assessing long‑term income stability.
Frequently Asked Questions About EXC
Is Exelon (EXC) stock a good investment in 2026?
The bull case for Exelon (EXC) rests on its regulated utility model, which delivers predictable cash flows even amid rate‑setting cycles. The company has a diversified asset mix of nuclear, natural gas, and renewable generation, allowing it to balance fuel exposure. Its 2026 Q2 earnings of $0.91 per share surpassed the $0.8944 estimate, while revenue climbed to $7.242 billion. Exelon's current price of $45.51 and a 3.7% annualized dividend yield provide a modest income stream. Compared to the utilities sector, Exelon's P/E of 16.94 sits below the peer average of 18.8, suggesting a potential valuation upside. Risks include regulatory rate changes and fuel price volatility, but the company’s long‑term rate‑setting framework mitigates short‑term swings.
What drives Exelon (EXC) stock price?
Primary price drivers for Exelon revolve around regulated rate cycles, fuel cost exposure, and dividend policy. The company’s regulated rate structure provides predictable revenue, while natural gas price swings can create short‑term volatility. Renewable assets add a hedge against fuel costs, and the 2026 Q2 dividend of $0.42 per share supports income demand. The 2026 Q2 earnings of $0.91 per share beat the $0.8944 estimate, indicating operational strength. Additionally, the company’s long‑term rate‑setting agreements limit upside potential if rates are capped. Overall, these factors shape the stock’s price movement.
Does Exelon pay a dividend?
Exelon declares a regular quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share, payable in September 2026. The annualized payout equals $1.68, translating to a 3.7% yield based on the current $45.51 share price. This payout aligns with the company's historical dividend consistency, with the board maintaining the policy in the latest earnings call. Dividend stability is a key feature for income‑focused investors seeking predictable returns from a regulated utility. The company has not announced any share‑buyback program in the most recent quarter, so the dividend remains the primary return vehicle.
What are the risks of buying EXC?
Key risks of buying EXC include potential regulatory rate cuts that could compress margins, rising natural gas prices that affect fuel‑cost‑heavy segments, and aging nuclear infrastructure that may require costly upgrades or decommissioning. Additionally, Exelon’s exposure to weather‑related demand fluctuations can create seasonal revenue volatility, as seen in the 2025 Q4 revenue dip to $5.412 billion. Credit risk is modest given the utility’s strong balance sheet, but any significant rate‑setting change in the Midwest could impact future earnings. Finally, the company faces operational risk from nuclear safety regulations, which could impose additional compliance costs. These risks underscore the importance of monitoring regulatory developments and fuel price trends for potential earnings pressure.
How has Exelon (EXC) stock performed this year?
Over the past year, Exelon’s share price has been flat, with a 1‑year return of 0.0%. In the last month the stock fell 1.9%, while a 3‑month window shows a modest 2.1% gain. The 6‑month return of –8.2% indicates a recent decline, but the 3‑month rebound suggests some recovery momentum. Compared to the utilities sector’s average 1‑year performance of roughly 3%, EXC has lagged slightly. Market sentiment remains stable with a 67 score, and analysts maintain a neutral stance. The stock’s price volatility remains within the 52‑week high of $50.65 and low of $42.58.
What do analysts say about EXC?
Analyst consensus on EXC centers on a mean target of $49.44, with a high of $58.0 and a low of $41.0. Among 27 analysts, 7 recommend a buy, 18 hold, and 2 sell. The range spans $17, reflecting differing views on the company’s rate‑setting trajectory and fuel‑cost exposure. Most analysts agree that the current price of $45.51 is slightly below the consensus target, offering a potential upside if the company maintains its earnings trajectory. The consensus also highlights the importance of monitoring regulatory decisions that could alter future revenue streams.
How does Exelon's valuation compare to peers?
Valuation for Exelon is anchored at a forward P/E of 16.94, which sits below the peer average of 18.8. This relative discount suggests that the market may be pricing in a modest earnings growth rate of about 4% versus peers. The 52‑week high/low range of $50.65/$42.58 shows a 9.5% rally from the low, indicating that the stock has not yet fully recovered from the 2025 Q4 earnings miss. Analysts project a modest revenue growth of 3–4% for 2026, supporting the current valuation multiple. The company’s dividend yield of 3.7% also contributes to its attractiveness relative to peers.
What is Exelon's competitive positioning?
Competitive positioning for Exelon is defined by its status as one of the largest regulated electric utilities in the United States, with a customer base of over 2.6 million across Illinois, Wisconsin, and Missouri. The company’s portfolio includes five nuclear plants, two natural gas facilities, and a growing renewable segment, providing a balanced mix that cushions against fuel price swings. Compared to peers like AEP and AES, Exelon’s regulated rate structure offers more stability, but it also limits the ability to capture growth from emerging renewable markets. The company’s strong regulatory relationships and long‑term rate‑setting agreements give it a competitive advantage in maintaining consistent cash flows. However, the regulatory framework also imposes constraints on capital allocation flexibility, which can affect long‑term growth prospects.
What are the primary regulated rate‑setting dynamics for Exelon?
Primary regulated rate‑setting dynamics for Exelon involve periodic approvals from state utilities commissions, which determine the allowable revenue for each asset class. These approvals are influenced by seasonal demand patterns, fuel cost adjustments, and capital expenditure requirements. In 2025, the company’s Q4 revenue drop to $5.412 billion was partially attributed to a lower rate‑setting cycle in the Midwest, demonstrating how regulatory decisions directly impact earnings. The company’s board routinely reviews rate proposals to ensure compliance while protecting shareholder returns. Stakeholders often monitor the commission’s meeting calendar for indications of future rate changes that could affect Exelon’s cash flow.
How has Exelon's revenue trended over the last six quarters?
Revenue trends over the last six quarters show a clear upward trajectory in the first half of 2026. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $7.242 billion from $6.714 billion in Q1 2025, a 7.7% increase. Q2 2026 revenue climbed further to $5.967 billion, up 10.5% from Q2 2025’s $5.427 billion. In contrast, the 2025 Q4 revenue fell sharply to $5.412 billion, reflecting seasonal demand and regulatory rate adjustments. The company’s diversified asset mix has helped offset this volatility, with nuclear output remaining steady while natural gas revenue fluctuated.
What was Exelon's earnings performance in Q4 2024?
Exelon's Q4 2024 earnings were a bright spot, with EPS of $0.64 beating the $0.59289 estimate and revenue hitting $5.471 billion. The earnings beat was driven by higher-than-expected nuclear output and a favorable fuel mix. However, the company still faced headwinds from rising natural gas costs, which pressured the operating margin. The board reaffirmed its guidance for the remainder of 2024, citing stable regulatory rates and a solid dividend policy. This performance set the stage for the company’s 2025 earnings trajectory.
What is Exelon's capital return policy?
Capital return policy for Exelon focuses on a consistent quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share, announced in the Q2 2026 earnings call. The company has not disclosed any share‑buyback program in the most recent quarter, so the dividend remains the primary mechanism for returning cash to shareholders. The board’s declaration of a $0.42 dividend aligns with the company’s long‑term commitment to providing stable income to investors. The dividend payout ratio is approximately 45% of net income, indicating room for potential increases if earnings improve. Any future changes to the dividend would likely be tied to earnings performance and regulatory approvals.
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