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Last updated2 minutes ago

LEU·Centrus Energy Corp.

$145.23
-4.62 (-3.08%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$145.90+0.67 (+0.46%)
High
$152.21
Open
$150.70
Market Cap
2.97B
52W High
$464.90
Low
$143.98
P. Close
$145.23
P/E
61.25
52W Low
$135.85
Fwd P/E
38.63
DailyIQ Est.
$259.67
Inst. Ownership
-
Short Interest
26.76%
Days to Cover
9.4
Technical Score (1D)
14
SELL
News Sentiment
76
BULLISH
Centrus Energy’s latest announcement of a multi‑year supply agreement with Antares Nuclear for high‑assay low‑enriched uranium delivers a clear upside catalyst. The deal locks in long‑term demand and, importantly, includes customer prepayments that will fund the expansion of Centrus’s domestic enrichment facilities, strengthening its balance sheet and reducing future financing risk. For the next 1–10 trading days, the market will likely interpret the prepayments as a near‑term cash infusion, improving liquidity and enabling the company to accelerate its growth plans. Watch for the company’s subsequent capital allocation announcements, as the timing and scale of the facility expansion will influence earnings guidance. The agreement also signals a broader shift toward domestic enrichment capacity, which could reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and mitigate geopolitical supply risks. In the medium term, increased domestic output may pressure uranium prices, potentially benefiting Centrus’s margins. Monitor Antares Nuclear’s production ramp‑up schedule, as any delays could affect the timing of the prepayments and the projected cash flow. Finally, keep an eye on regulatory developments in the nuclear sector, as changes in licensing or safety standards could impact the pace of facility expansion and the overall demand for low‑assay uranium.
Earnings Summary
Centrus Energy Corp. supplies low‑enriched uranium and related technical solutions to nuclear power utilities worldwide, positioning it within the niche uranium sector of the broader energy industry. The company’s dual‑segment model—fuel products and engineering services—has enabled it to capture both commodity and service revenue streams. In Q4 2024, Centrus posted a strong EPS of $3.20 versus an estimate of $1.64, while revenue reached $151.6 million, a modest increase from the prior quarter; the following quarter, Q1 2025, saw EPS of $1.06 against a negative estimate of –$0.0775 and revenue of $73.1 million, indicating a sharp decline in top line but a continued earnings beat. Q2 2025 reversed the trend with EPS of $1.59 versus an estimate of $0.58 and revenue of $154.5 million, matching Q4 2024 levels, whereas Q3 2025 saw EPS drop to $0.19 against an estimate of $0.36 and revenue of $74.9 million, a significant revenue contraction. The most recent Q4 2025 results showed EPS of $0.79 against an estimate of $1.42 and revenue of $146.2 million versus an estimate of $147.8 million, reflecting a slight revenue shortfall and a lower-than‑expected earnings beat. Q1 2026 continued the pattern with EPS of $1.05 versus an estimate of $0.27 and revenue of $76.7 million versus an estimate of $78.3 million, while Q2 2026 delivered EPS of $0.77 against an estimate of $0.85 and revenue of $176.1 million versus an estimate of $150.0 million, indicating a revenue rebound but a modest earnings miss. Historically, Centrus has maintained a YoY revenue growth trajectory of roughly 10–15 % over the past four quarters, with EPS consistently beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, though the most recent quarter saw a miss. Recent news highlights a $500 million public offering of Class A shares and warrants priced at $199.64, which will dilute shareholders but provide working capital; additionally, a multi‑year HALEU supply contract with Radiant for Kaleidos microreactors expands the company’s domestic fuel footprint and could drive future revenue. Investors should watch for the closing of the offering, the allocation of proceeds, and the first tranche of HALEU deliveries, as these events will clarify the net impact on earnings and cash flow in the coming quarter.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.23$0.28$0.80$1.31$1.83Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.01 - -
Q2'26$0.85$0.77-9.1%
Q1'26$0.27$1.05+288.9%
Q4'25$1.42$0.79-44.4%
Q3'25$0.36$0.19-46.7%
Q2'25$0.58$1.59+176.3%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$50M$85M$121M$157M$193MQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$66M - -
Q2'26$150M$176M+17.4%
Q1'26$78M$77M-2.1%
Q4'25$148M$146M-1.1%
Q3'25 - $75M -
Q2'25 - $155M -

Market Data

LEU Stock Snapshot

SELL14/100
$145.90+$0.67 (0.5%)
Market cap
2.97B
P/E ratio
61.3
Day range
$143.98 – $152.21
News sentiment
76/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$247.40 (+69.6%)
Consensus
Buy · 23 analysts
52-week range+7.4% off low · -68.6% from high
$135.85$464.90
Price $145.90 DailyIQ Est. $259.67

LEU's technical picture is under pressure, with momentum working against price. Position sizing matters more than usual in a name this size, where volatility is structural.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into LEU?

RICH

At today's price, Centrus Energy Corp. needs to grow free cash flow about 32.4% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 10.80% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at -16.8% a year, so the market is asking for 49.2 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis LEU looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
32.4%
Historical FCF CAGR
-16.8%
Growth gap
+49.2 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
10.80%
Beta
1.93

Behaviour On Record

What LEU's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
80.4% 59th pct
Below its peak
-66.9%
vs 200-day average
-29.8%
Up days (1y)
50%

Centrus Energy Corp. is currently running 80.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against LEU's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 59th percentile close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 74.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

LEU is trading -66.9% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -55.6%, and the deepest was -94.3% in 2014. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -29.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 15th percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year LEU closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, LEU finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -5.8% and an average of +1.7%. Its strongest month historically has been October at +8.6% on average, its weakest December at -3.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: LEU has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 797 of 3,252 sessions (24.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +24.9% and -22.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, LEU moved an average of 9.5% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -4.4% and a largest of -13.4%.

All figures computed from 3,255 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against LEU's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of LEU's sector?

Centrus Energy Corp. sits in the Energy sector, currently ranked 2nd of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#2 of 11
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
80

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for LEU?

CallsPuts

For Centrus Energy Corp.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 26 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 9.03), with at-the-money implied volatility around 74.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±18.1% move by that expiry — a range of about $125.52–$180.90.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
9.03
ATM implied volatility
74.8%
Total open interest
11,801
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±18.1% ($125.52–$180.90)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on LEU?

Jefferies most recently initiated coverage on Centrus Energy Corp. to Hold on Sep 3, 2026 with a price target of $169. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
JefferiesHold
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 3, 2026JefferiesInitiatedHold$169
Aug 25, 2026StifelMaintainedBuy$246 → $216
Aug 19, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$170 → $185
Aug 18, 2026BarclaysInitiatedEqual-Weight$207
Aug 7, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$178 → $180
Aug 7, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$264 → $262
Aug 7, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedOutperform$390 → $337
Jul 29, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$236 → $178
Jul 14, 2026Truist SecuritiesInitiatedBuy$215
Jul 9, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedNeutral$240 → $205
Jul 9, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$314 → $264
Jun 22, 2026Roth CapitalMaintainedNeutral$230 → $195

LEU Competitive Positioning

Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) is tracked alongside these names in Uranium on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.