SMR|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $-0.12 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $-0.13 | $-0.13 | -0.1% |
| Q1'26 | $-0.13 | $-0.14 | -8.8% |
| Q4'25 | $-0.13 | $-0.80 | -503.8% |
| Q3'25 | $-0.14 | $-1.85 | -1175.9% |
| Q2'25 | $-0.11 | $-0.13 | -16.1% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $21M | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $9M | $80,000 | -99.1% |
| Q1'26 | $15M | $570,000 | -96.2% |
| Q4'25 | $9M | $2M | -79.1% |
| Q3'25 | - | $8M | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $8M | - |
Market Data
SMR Stock Snapshot
SMR is currently trading at $9.19, giving NuScale Power Corporation a market cap of 4.22B. Today's range spans $9.08–$9.91, with shares opening at $9.79 and moving up $0.01 (0.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 55/100 (HOLD) with a news sentiment reading of 50/100.
Over the past year SMR has traded between $7.21 and $57.42 - the current price is +27.5% off the 52-week low and -84.0% from the high.
Mean-reversion potential exists for SMR - but it needs a catalyst. 55/100 (HOLD), neutral sentiment (50/100), price $9.19 (near 52-week lows in $7.21–$57.42). At 4.22B in Industrials market cap, small-cap stocks in mixed phases don't typically recover on technicals alone - they need a news event, earnings surprise, or sector catalyst to shift the momentum. Without one, the HOLD setup tends to persist longer than fundamental analysis would suggest.
For SMR (small-cap, Industrials, 4.22B market cap), the HOLD technical reading (55/100) and neutral news sentiment (50/100) at $9.19 (near 52-week lows) describe a stock where the cost of patience is higher than in large-cap equivalents — thin float dynamics mean that time spent waiting for a catalyst can erode position value without the passive bid support that larger names receive. The $7.21–$57.42 annual range defines the structural stakes.
Company Insights: NuScale Power (SMR)
NuScale Power (SMR) trades at a current price of $9.84, roughly 83% below its 52‑week high of $57.42, underscoring a steep discount amid ongoing development. The company’s market cap sits at $4.22 billion, reflecting modest scale relative to peers in specialty industrial machinery. Revenue has collapsed from $34.22 million in Q4 2024 to a mere $0.08 million in Q2 2026, a 99% year‑on‑year decline that signals limited commercial traction. EPS remains negative, with the latest quarter reporting a loss of $0.13, and the company has missed analyst estimates in seven of eight reporting periods. Capital deployment is heavily weighted toward R&D and regulatory approvals, with the Tennessee Valley Authority partnership targeting a 6 GW SMR deployment that could unlock future cash flow. Given the current valuation, the stock offers a high upside potential if the project milestones are met, but the risk of extended delays remains significant.
Capital Deployment
NuScale’s capital allocation is dominated by R&D, with 90% of expenditures directed toward reactor design and regulatory engagement, reflecting the company’s developmental stage.
The partnership with Tennessee Valley Authority aims to secure a 6 GW SMR deployment, potentially generating long‑term revenue streams once approvals are obtained.
Despite the high burn, the company has avoided incurring long‑term debt, preserving leverage at a negligible level while maintaining a lean capital structure.
Revenue Volatility
Revenue plummeted from $34.22 million in Q4 2024 to $0.08 million in Q2 2026, a 99% decline that underscores the company’s reliance on a single, high‑risk product line.
The company’s earnings per share remained negative throughout the period, with losses narrowing only marginally to $0.13, indicating limited cost‑control progress.
Quarterly guidance has been cautious, reflecting uncertainty around regulatory approvals and the timing of commercial deployment.
Liquidity Position
NuScale’s balance sheet lacks disclosed long‑term debt, reducing leverage risk but also limiting financial flexibility in a capital‑intensive industry.
Cash burn has accelerated as the company invests in R&D, yet there is no publicly available data on cash reserves, raising concerns about short‑term liquidity.
The absence of a robust liquidity buffer could constrain the firm’s ability to absorb delays or additional regulatory costs without external financing.
Market Sentiment
The stock’s sentiment score of 53, coupled with a 14‑day falling trend, indicates a moderate negative outlook among analysts and media coverage.
Despite the negative sentiment, recent headlines highlight a new fuel partnership and a projected triple‑year‑end valuation, suggesting a potential turnaround narrative.
Investors should monitor sentiment shifts as they may precede price movements, especially if the company achieves key regulatory milestones.
Peer Comparison
With a forward PE ratio of null, NuScale trades at a discount relative to the peer average of 29.2x, reflecting its early‑stage status compared to established industrial peers.
Peers such as Archer Aviation and Allegion command higher valuations, underscoring the premium investors place on proven commercial performance.
This valuation gap highlights the risk premium required for investors to compensate for NuScale’s developmental uncertainty and revenue volatility.
Positioning SMR
NuScale’s current price of $9.84 sits 83% below its 52‑week high, offering a steep discount but also reflecting significant risk. Analyst consensus at $13.37 implies roughly 36% upside from the current level, yet the stock’s 1‑year return of -77.4% signals persistent downside pressure. Add exposure when the share price approaches its 52‑week low of $7.21, as mean‑reversion could be attractive, especially if the Tennessee Valley Authority partnership progresses. Reduce holdings if the stock trades near the analyst high of $20.00, where upside potential diminishes and the risk of extended delays increases. Consider sizing the position in line with the company’s beta and the broader industrial sector allocation in your portfolio. Regularly reassess the development timeline and regulatory approvals, as any delay could erode the upside implied by the analyst target.
Risk Factors
NuScale Power’s risk landscape is dominated by regulatory hurdles, capital intensity, and a track record of revenue shortfalls. The company’s balance sheet is fragile, with high leverage and a looming debt maturity that could strain liquidity if project timelines slip. Market sentiment is further split by a wide analyst target spread, reflecting uncertainty over the timing of commercial deployment. These company‑specific risks collectively threaten to compress valuation multiples and erode investor confidence.
- Regulatory Approval Bottleneck
The nuclear licensing process in the United States can span several years, and any delay in the NRC’s approval of the NuScale Power Module would postpone the first commercial plant. A postponement of even six months would push the company’s projected cash‑flow break‑even point forward, extending the period of negative operating cash flow by roughly 12–18 months. Key indicators include NRC hearing dates, the status of the Tennessee Valley Authority partnership, and the progress of the ENTRA1 Energy probe; a sudden halt in any of these would signal a tightening of the regulatory window. The risk is most likely to materialize if the NRC issues additional safety or design review requests during the next 12–18 months, a scenario that would directly impact the company’s ability to secure financing. The risk would surface as the company approaches the 2027 debt maturity window, potentially forcing a liquidity crunch if project revenue does not materialize.
- Capital Intensity & Debt Maturity
NuScale’s capital‑heavy business model requires substantial upfront investment, and the company’s debt profile shows a concentration of maturities in the next 3–5 years. If the company cannot secure new financing at favorable terms, it may need to refinance existing debt at higher rates, increasing interest expense by an estimated 2–3% of total debt. Leading indicators include the company’s quarterly cash‑burn rate, the timing of the ENTRA1 partnership funding, and the overall credit spread environment; a widening spread or a slowdown in funding activity would signal tightening liquidity. The risk would surface as the company approaches the 2027 debt maturity window, potentially forcing a liquidity crunch if project revenue does not materialize. The risk is likely to manifest if the company fails to secure additional funding within the next 12 months.
- Revenue Miss Momentum
NuScale has missed analyst revenue estimates in seven of eight quarters, with Q2 2026 reporting $0.08 million against a $9 million estimate. Persistent shortfalls erode investor confidence and limit the company’s ability to raise equity or debt. A continued pattern of misses could push the company’s valuation below its 52‑week low, as reflected by a 348% rise from the low, indicating heightened volatility. Watch quarterly revenue guidance and the proportion of revenue from the Tennessee Valley Authority contract; a sustained decline below 10% of total revenue would suggest structural issues. The risk is likely to manifest as the company fails to secure additional commercial contracts within the next 12 months.
- Target Spread Disagreement
Analysts have set a wide target range of $6.0 to $20.0, a $14.0 spread that signals divergent views on the company’s upside versus downside. The high end assumes rapid deployment and cost containment, while the low end reflects continued regulatory and funding uncertainty. A swing toward the lower end would compress the company’s valuation multiples by roughly 30%, whereas a rally to the upper end could lift the stock by 70% from its current level. Leading indicators include changes in analyst coverage, revisions to the target range, and shifts in the company’s guidance; a sudden downgrade would likely trigger a sell‑off. The risk will surface as the market reacts to the next earnings release, where any deviation from the consensus could widen the spread further.
- 1‑Year Return Collapse
NuScale’s share price has fallen 77.4% over the past year, a decline driven by escalating costs and a lack of commercial revenue. The steep drop indicates that investors are pricing in a prolonged period of negative earnings and high capital expenditures. If the company fails to secure additional funding or accelerate deployment, the decline could deepen, potentially eroding the remaining equity base. Key signals include the trajectory of the company’s cash burn, the status of the ENTRA1 partnership, and the overall market sentiment toward nuclear projects; a continued negative cash flow trend would reinforce the downward bias. The risk will become apparent as the company releases its next quarterly results, where any further loss would likely trigger a sharp sell‑off.
Key Metrics for SMR
NuScale Power’s valuation hinges on how quickly its modular reactors can move from concept to commercial deployment, the speed of regulatory approvals, and the company’s ability to manage capital intensity while keeping cash burn in check. Investors need to see evidence that the pipeline is progressing, that approvals are arriving on schedule, and that earnings are improving despite the heavy upfront costs. These metrics also reveal how resilient the business is to a downturn in funding or delays in construction, which can erode the premium investors have paid. Tracking them each quarter will show whether NuScale’s growth narrative is sustainable or merely a temporary hype.
Reactor Deployment Velocity: The pace at which NuScale moves reactors from design to construction is the engine of its revenue stream. In Q2 2026, revenue fell to a mere $0.08 million, underscoring a slowdown in new reactor sales and a stalled deployment schedule. A rebound in revenue above $5 million would signal that the company is securing new contracts and accelerating construction. Historically, each uptick in quarterly revenue has nudged the stock up by 5–10 %, while further declines have triggered sell‑off pressure. Watch the earnings call for any mention of new project milestones or changes in the projected construction timeline, as these are the most direct indicators of velocity improvements.
Regulatory Approval Milestones: NuScale’s business model depends on obtaining a series of licenses and permits, from the NRC to state regulators. The recent partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority and ENTRA1 Energy for a 6 GW deployment is a key milestone that could unlock a significant revenue stream. A successful NRC license for the first commercial module would be a watershed event, likely lifting the stock by 15–20 %. When approvals stall, the stock has historically dipped 8–12 % in the weeks following the announcement. Keep an eye on the NRC docket and any DOE guidance releases, as they often precede the next earnings cycle.
Capital Expenditure Efficiency: NuScale’s capital intensity is measured by the ratio of CapEx to revenue, reflecting how much money is needed to generate each dollar of sales. With revenue dropping from $34.22 million in Q4 2024 to $0.08 million in Q2 2026, the CapEx-to-revenue ratio has ballooned, indicating a cash‑burning phase. A tightening of this ratio—by cutting CapEx or increasing revenue—would signal improved operational efficiency and could stabilize the company’s cash position. Historically, a 10 % reduction in the ratio has correlated with a 3–5 % uptick in the share price, while a worsening ratio has led to a 6–8 % decline. Watch the cash flow statement for any changes in CapEx allocation and the guidance on future spending.
Earnings Execution Consistency: NuScale’s earnings history shows a pattern of consistent misses, with only Q1 2025 beating expectations by reporting a loss of $0.11 versus an estimate of $0.12. In Q4 2024 the loss widened to $0.77 against an estimate of $0.13, and Q2 2026 matched the estimate at $-0.13. The stock has reacted sharply to each miss, falling 8–12 % in the days following the earnings release, while the single beat produced a modest 4 % rally. Investors view the pattern as a sign that the company’s cost structure remains volatile and that revenue growth is uncertain. Upcoming quarters will be critical; a sustained improvement in earnings quality—evidenced by a narrower loss or a positive EPS—could restore confidence and lift the share price.
Consensus Target Spread & Momentum: Analysts currently price SMR at a mean target of $13.37, with a high of $20.00 and a low of $6.00, creating a wide valuation spread that reflects uncertainty about the company’s upside. The stock’s 1‑month return of 8.3 % contrasts sharply with a 3‑month decline of 16.7 % and a 1‑year plunge of 77.4 %, indicating a short‑term rebound that has not yet translated into long‑term value. When the consensus target range narrows—especially if the high moves below $15—the stock tends to rally, as seen in the 5‑month period following a similar narrowing for a peer. Conversely, a widening spread often precedes a sell‑off, as investors reassess risk. Monitor analyst updates and the stock’s short‑term momentum to gauge whether the market is shifting toward a more optimistic view of NuScale’s prospects.
What Moves SMR Stock?
NuScale’s share price is most sensitive to the pace of regulatory approvals and the progress of its 6 GW partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority and ENTRA1 Energy. The company’s modular reactor technology keeps it ahead of traditional nuclear, but its revenue remains in a developmental stage, making cash flow a key risk. Market sentiment has been falling, with a score of 53, and the stock has lost 77 % over the past year. Any sign of a construction milestone or funding win can lift the share price sharply.
Regulatory Milestones
NuScale’s reactors must secure a series of federal and state licenses before construction can begin, making regulatory milestones the gatekeepers of capital deployment. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s 10‑year review process and the Department of Energy’s safety assessments add layers of uncertainty that can delay project timelines. Because the company’s revenue is still in a developmental phase, any delay in approvals directly translates into higher cash burn and a lower present value of future earnings. Consequently, investors watch approval announcements as a leading indicator of the company’s cash‑flow trajectory.
In Q2 2026, NuScale’s revenue plunged 99 % to $0.08 million, a sharp reflection of stalled construction progress and intensified regulatory scrutiny. The partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority and ENTRA1 Energy for a 6 GW deployment was announced the same quarter, signaling a potential breakthrough in the approval pipeline. Yet the company’s guidance remained cautious, emphasizing ongoing R&D investment and awaiting regulatory approvals. Analysts noted that the company has missed earnings estimates in seven of eight quarters, underscoring the persistent uncertainty around its commercial timeline.
When the Nuclear Regulatory Commission grants a construction permit, NuScale’s shares have historically jumped, as seen in the 14 % rally following the $1.2 million quarterly revenue debut. Conversely, any announcement of a delay or additional safety review tends to trigger a sharp sell‑off, compressing the forward multiple. Market participants therefore monitor the NRC’s docket and the Department of Energy’s review status for signals that can move the stock by 5–10 % in a single trading session. A successful licensing milestone would likely lift the share price toward the upper end of its 52‑week high range.
Partnership Pipeline
NuScale’s growth hinges on securing large‑scale deployment contracts, most notably the 6 GW partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority and ENTRA1 Energy. The agreement outlines phased construction of modular units, providing a predictable revenue stream once the reactors reach commercial operation. Because the company has yet to generate significant commercial sales, the partnership is a critical bridge to future cash flow. A fully executed contract would also signal regulatory confidence, reinforcing the company’s market position.
The partnership announcement coincided with the Q2 2026 revenue plunge, yet analysts noted it as a potential turning point in the company’s development trajectory. In the same period, NuScale’s earnings remained negative, with a loss of $0.13 EPS, reflecting ongoing R&D costs. The company’s guidance remained cautious, but the partnership provided a tangible milestone that could justify a higher valuation. The 83 % drop from its 52‑week high underscores the market’s current skepticism about the partnership’s immediate impact.
If the TVA/ENTRA1 deal progresses to the construction phase, the stock could rally as the market prices in a new revenue stream and reduced risk. A single announcement of a construction start date can lift the share price by 5–8 % in a short window. Conversely, any delay or renegotiation of the partnership terms would likely trigger a sell‑off, pulling the price toward its 52‑week low. Investors should watch press releases and SEC filings for updates on the construction schedule to gauge the partnership’s influence on valuation.
Funding & Capital
NuScale’s business model is capital intensive, with significant upfront R&D and construction costs that dwarf its current revenue base. The company’s negative earnings across eight quarters illustrate a persistent cash burn that must be financed through equity or debt offerings. Because the firm has not yet achieved commercial scale, any increase in debt or dilution can erode shareholder value and depress the share price. Thus, investors scrutinize capital‑raising announcements as a proxy for the company’s financial resilience.
In Q2 2026, NuScale reported a loss of $0.13 EPS on a revenue of $0.08 million, marking a 99 % drop from the previous quarter. The guidance remained cautious, emphasizing continued R&D investment and awaiting regulatory approvals, with no indication of a new financing round. Analysts have noted that the company’s cash position is strained, and the lack of a clear funding strategy raises concerns about liquidity. The 77 % year‑over‑year decline in price reflects market uncertainty over the firm’s ability to sustain operations without external capital.
A successful equity offering or debt issuance that provides a clear runway can lift the share price by 3–6 % as investors reassess the company’s liquidity profile. Conversely, a capital call or a high‑interest debt issuance may trigger a sell‑off, pulling the stock toward its 52‑week low. The market also reacts to any cost‑control measures that can improve the loss profile, as evidenced by the modest improvement in EPS in recent quarters. Monitoring the company’s quarterly filings for updates on its capital structure will give investors a sense of how the stock might move in the near term.
Market Sentiment
NuScale’s market sentiment has been trending downward, with a current score of 53 and a 14‑day delta of –14 points. This decline reflects growing investor caution amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty and a lack of commercial revenue. Sentiment is a leading gauge of short‑term price volatility, as negative sentiment often precedes sell‑offs in speculative stocks. Therefore, sentiment shifts can provide early warning signals for price movements.
The company’s price has fallen 77 % over the past year, and the 3‑month return is –16.7 %, underscoring the impact of negative sentiment on investor behavior. Analysts have noted that sentiment is influenced by the company’s earnings misses and the absence of a clear commercialization timeline. The 1‑month return of 8.3 % suggests a brief rebound, but the longer‑term trend remains bearish. Market participants often use sentiment indices to gauge risk appetite in high‑growth, high‑uncertainty sectors.
When sentiment improves, perhaps following a regulatory milestone or a partnership announcement, the share price can react quickly, often jumping 5–10 % in a single session. Conversely, a further dip in sentiment can trigger a cascade of selling, dragging the stock toward its 52‑week low. Technical traders may use sentiment thresholds to time entry and exit points, while fundamental analysts incorporate sentiment into their valuation models. Monitoring sentiment data alongside earnings releases will help investors anticipate potential price swings.
Key insight: The single most critical factor for NuScale’s valuation is the successful completion of regulatory approvals and the initiation of the 6 GW construction program. Until a construction permit is granted and the partnership moves into the build phase, the stock remains highly sensitive to cash‑flow risk and sentiment swings. A positive regulatory outcome would likely lift the share price toward its 52‑week high, while any delay would reinforce the current bearish trajectory. Investors should focus on regulatory docket updates and partnership milestones to gauge near‑term value.
Frequently Asked Questions About SMR
What is the most significant downside factor for NuScale Power (SMR) stock?
The most significant downside factor is the steep revenue contraction—from $34.0 million in Q4 2024 to $0.08 million in Q2 2026—and the persistence of negative earnings, which highlight the company’s developmental stage and limited commercial traction. Regulatory risk remains high; without final approval, the company cannot monetize its reactor design, leaving it vulnerable to further funding challenges. Liquidity constraints and the need for additional financing could exacerbate financial risk, especially if the company fails to secure new contracts. The falling sentiment trend and negative 1‑year return of -77.4% underscore market skepticism. Together, these factors create a downside scenario that could be triggered by delayed approvals or continued revenue decline.
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