MARA·MARA Holdings Inc

Realized volatility (21d)

62.5% 15th pct

Below its peak

-94.0%

vs 200-day average

-17.1%

Up days (1y)

42%

MARA Holdings Inc is currently running 62.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MARA's own 12 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 15th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 97.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MARA is trading -94.0% below its running peak. Across 11 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -70.0%, and the deepest was -93.4% in 2017. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -17.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 48th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year MARA closed higher on 42% of sessions, and it is currently 8 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, MARA finished the month higher 5 of 13 times, with a median return of -5.0% and an average of -0.9%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +24.4% on average, its weakest March at -13.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MARA has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 935 of 3,020 sessions (31.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +34.0% and -41.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MARA moved an average of 4.8% in the session after earnings, closing higher 0 of those 3 times, with a median move of -4.8% and a largest of -6.7%.

All figures computed from 3,023 daily closes between 2014-07-28 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MARA's own 12-year history, not a peer group or index.