MDT·Medtronic plc

Realized volatility (21d)

24.2% 76th pct

Below its peak

-31.0%

vs 200-day average

+5.4%

Up days (1y)

47%

Medtronic plc is currently running 24.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MDT's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 76th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 19.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MDT is trading -31.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -16.6%, and the deepest was -38.5% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +5.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 63rd percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year MDT closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 5 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, MDT finished the month higher 7 of 14 times, with a median return of -0.0% and an average of +0.3%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +3.1% on average, its weakest September at -2.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MDT has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 58 of 3,268 sessions (1.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.3% and -6.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MDT moved an average of 2.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 3 of those 3 times, with a median move of +1.6% and a largest of +5.1%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MDT's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.