MPC·Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

36.8% 72nd pct

Below its peak

0.0%

vs 200-day average

+65.5%

Up days (1y)

58%

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is currently running 36.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MPC's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 72nd percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 31.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MPC is at its running peak. Across 12 full years on file its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.3%, with the deepest at -73.0% in 2020 — so highs have historically been given back before they were extended.

Price sits +65.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 100th percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year MPC closed higher on 58% of sessions, and it is currently 5 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, MPC finished the month higher 11 of 13 times, with a median return of +6.3% and an average of +3.6%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +5.7% on average, its weakest December at -2.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MPC has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 171 of 3,267 sessions (5.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.8% and -11.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MPC moved an average of 4.3% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.8% and a largest of -5.6%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MPC's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.