Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Price, News, Analysis

Technical Score (1D)

100

BUY

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Marathon Petroleum’s latest earnings guidance shows a projected EPS surge of 669 % to $23.15 for the quarter, while revenue is expected to dip 8.4 % to $32.84 billion, a sharp contrast that signals the company’s ability to generate profit even as top‑line sales shrink. The 452‑plus‑percent jump in annual earnings guidance, coupled with a 14.5 % rise in revenue, underlines the firm’s robust refining margins and suggests that the current valuation may already be reflecting a significant upside. This earnings outlook is likely to keep the stock buoyant over the next 1–10 trading days, as investors weigh the high EPS growth against the modest revenue decline. The upcoming third‑quarter earnings conference call on November 3 at 11 a.m. EST will be the next key event; the company will release its financial results and investor materials ahead of the call, so traders should monitor the pre‑call releases for any guidance revisions or operational commentary that could confirm or temper the projected EPS surge. Analysts caution that Marathon’s 150 % YTD gain and proximity to 52‑week highs may have priced in much of the upside, raising the risk of a pullback if margins compress or refinery utilization falls. The firm’s strong crack spread and refining margins remain the primary growth drivers, but any shift in crude supply dynamics or fuel demand could erode those margins. In a rising‑rate environment, Marathon is still highlighted as a relative price strength pick, indicating resilience amid broader market volatility; however, the weak setup rating in the Minervini Trend Template suggests that the current entry point may not be optimal, so traders should watch for a clearer catalyst before committing significant capital. Overall, the combination of explosive EPS growth, modest revenue decline, and the upcoming earnings call creates a short‑term bullish case, but the potential for margin compression and valuation concerns warrants close attention to the Q3 results and any updates on refinery utilization and crude supply.

MPC|Analyst Targets

LOW TARGET

$236 -44.5%

2 analysts

MEAN TARGET

$370 -13.0%

17 analysts

HIGH TARGET

$462 +8.6%

8 analysts

PRICE RANGE

$236.00 - $462.00

SB / B / H / S / SS

2/13/10/1/1

DAILYIQ EST.

$382.81 (-10.0%)

MPC|Company Info

Sector

Energy

Industry

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Exchange

NYQ

Country

United States

Website

marathonpetroleum.com

Symbol

MPC

Description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a fully integrated downstream energy company operating primarily within the United States. The company's core business involves refining crude oil and other feedstocks into various refined products, including transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt, which are then distributed through its extensive network. Marathon's operations are divided into three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel. The Midstream segment provides crucial logistical support by gathering, transporting, and storing crude oil, refined products, and natural gas, while the Renewable Diesel segment focuses on processing renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel. This structure allows Marathon to control a significant portion of the value chain, from production to distribution, positioning it as a key player in the energy sector.

MPC|Insider Trading

Bought (1Y)

0 shares

Sold (1Y)

30,946 shares

$10.3M

Lyon Shawn MSVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC

Sell1,000 shares2026-08-31

Lyon Shawn MSVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC

Sell425 shares2026-08-28

Brzezinski Erin MVP and Controller

Sell570 shares2026-08-27

Benson Molly RChief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec

Option Exercise5,000 shares2026-08-17

Benson Molly RChief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec

Option Exercise7,196 shares2026-08-17

MPC|Fundamentals

Neutral / mixed

Verdict: Neutral

✕Revenue declining year over year

✓Positive net margin

✓Positive operating cash flow

Net Margin

3.0%

Revenue CAGR

6.9%

Current Ratio

1.26x

Debt / Equity

1.90x

Return on Equity

23.4%

MPC|Earnings Snapshot

Earnings Summary

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a fully integrated downstream energy company operating primarily in the United States, with core activities in refining, midstream logistics, and renewable diesel production. The company’s refining segment is a key driver of earnings, benefiting from high crack spreads and robust fuel demand. In Q4 2024, MPC posted revenue of $33.466 billion and EPS of $0.77, a significant beat over the $0.0201 estimate, while Q1 2025 revenue fell to $31.85 billion and EPS dipped to $-0.24, missing the $-0.54274 forecast. The company rebounded in Q2 2025 with revenue of $34.101 billion and EPS of $3.96, surpassing the $3.22001 estimate, and maintained strong performance in Q3 2025 with $35.849 billion revenue and $3.01 EPS versus a $3.16366 estimate. Q4 2025 revenue rose to $33.422 billion and EPS reached $4.07, beating the $1.28186 estimate, but Q1 2026 revenue declined to $34.568 billion and EPS fell to $1.65, well below the $9.51002 forecast. Historically, MPC has exhibited a pattern of high earnings volatility tied to margin expansion, with revenue growth generally positive but EPS swings reflecting margin sensitivity. Recent news highlights a sharp rise in U.S. refiner margins due to geopolitical supply disruptions, record crack spreads, and diesel price surges, all of which have bolstered MPC’s profitability and attracted analyst upgrades. Investors should watch for changes in crack spreads, refinery utilization rates, and geopolitical developments that could compress margins, as these factors will be critical in the next earnings cycle. Key watch points include monitoring U.S. refinery throughput data, crude pricing shifts, and any corporate actions such as buybacks or dividend adjustments that may signal management’s confidence in sustaining the current refining upside.

Read full report

EPS

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$21.80	-	-
Q2'26	$13.86	$17.73	+27.9%
Q1'26	$9.51	$1.65	-82.6%
Q4'25	$1.28	$4.07	+217.5%
Q3'25	$3.16	$3.01	-4.9%
Q2'25	$3.22	$3.96	+23.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$42.9B	-	-
Q2'26	$42.5B	$52.3B	+23.1%
Q1'26	$40.1B	$34.6B	-13.7%
Q4'25	$29.2B	$33.4B	+14.3%
Q3'25	-	$35.8B	-
Q2'25	-	$34.1B	-

Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context

→

MPC|Monthly Returns

Market Data

MPC Stock Snapshot

BUY100/100

$425.30+$0.64 (0.2%)

Market cap: 117.75B
P/E ratio: 13.8
Day range: $416.00 – $428.00
News sentiment: 64/100 · Bullish
Analyst target: $370.17 (-13.0%)
Consensus: Buy · 27 analysts

52-week range+162.6% off low · -0.6% from high

$161.93$428.00

Price $425.30 DailyIQ Est. $382.81

Marathon Petroleum Corporation screens well technically, with price sitting near its 52-week high. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into MPC?

FAIR

At today's price, Marathon Petroleum Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 12.9% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 7.42% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 12.5% a year, so the market is asking for 0.5 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis MPC looks priced roughly in line with its own growth record.

Implied FCF growth: 12.9%
Historical FCF CAGR: 12.5%
Growth gap: +0.5 pts
Verdict: FAIR
Discount rate (WACC): 7.42%
Beta: 0.70

Behaviour On Record

What MPC's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d): 22.8% 15th pct
Below its peak: 0.0%
vs 200-day average: +69.7%
Up days (1y): 59%

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is currently running 22.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MPC's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 15th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 30.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MPC is at its running peak. Across 12 full years on file its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.3%, with the deepest at -73.0% in 2020 — so highs have historically been given back before they were extended.

Price sits +69.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 100th percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year MPC closed higher on 59% of sessions, and it is currently 6 sessions into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, MPC finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +2.8% and an average of +1.6%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +5.7% on average, its weakest December at -2.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MPC has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 171 of 3,268 sessions (5.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.8% and -11.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MPC moved an average of 4.3% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.8% and a largest of -5.6%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MPC's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MPC's sector?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation sits in the Energy sector, currently ranked 2nd of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank: #2 of 11
Sector state: Weakening
Sector rotation score: 80

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MPC?

CallsPuts

For Marathon Petroleum Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 27 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 1.68), with at-the-money implied volatility around 50.9%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±13.8% move by that expiry — a range of about $345.76–$456.16.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16): 1.68
ATM implied volatility: 50.9%
Total open interest: 17,988
Expected move by 2026-10-16: ±13.8% ($345.76–$456.16)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MPC?

Raymond James most recently reiterated its rating on Marathon Petroleum Corporation to Outperform on Sep 14, 2026 with a price target of $445 (from $350). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action: Raymond James — Outperform
90-day upgrades: 0
90-day downgrades: 0
Net rating momentum: 0

Date	Firm	Action	Rating	Price target
Sep 14, 2026	Raymond James	Maintained	Outperform	$350 → $445
Sep 14, 2026	Morgan Stanley	Maintained	Overweight	$265 → $453
Sep 8, 2026	UBS	Maintained	Buy	$321 → $450
Sep 3, 2026	Piper Sandler	Maintained	Overweight	$344 → $462
Sep 1, 2026	Wells Fargo	Maintained	Overweight	$359 → $400
Aug 11, 2026	Mizuho	Maintained	Neutral	$284 → $304
Aug 6, 2026	Piper Sandler	Maintained	Overweight	$343 → $344
Aug 6, 2026	Barclays	Maintained	Overweight	$289 → $321
Aug 5, 2026	TD Cowen	Maintained	Buy	$357 → $375
Aug 5, 2026	Citigroup	Maintained	Neutral	$303 → $318
Aug 5, 2026	Wells Fargo	Maintained	Overweight	$344 → $359
Aug 5, 2026	Evercore ISI Group	Maintained	In-Line	$300 → $330

MPC Competitive Positioning

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is tracked alongside these names in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

MPCyou're hereMarathon Petroleum Corporation$117.8B+0.15%
VLOValero Energy Corporation$116.2B+0.30%
PSXPhillips 66$105.6B+0.18%

Held by These ETFs

MPC is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

64/100

Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive

MODERATELY BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles

What did this article say?

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) rallied 7.3% after analysts upgraded estimates and the company posted a strong earnings outlook. The upgrades and upbeat guidance are expected to lift investor confidence ahead of the Q3 earnings call on November 3. The rally reflects renewed optimism about MPC’s refining performance and its ability to navigate near‑term earnings pressure, though long‑term decarbonization risks remain. Traders should watch the upcoming earnings release for confirmation of the guidance and any forward‑looking commentary.

What did this article say?

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is expanding its role in the LNG supply chain, positioning itself to capture rising demand for cleaner fuels. The company is investing in infrastructure that supports LNG transport and storage, aligning with global decarbonization trends. MPC’s strategic moves are expected to enhance its long‑term revenue streams and diversify its product mix. Investors should monitor the progress of these infrastructure projects and any regulatory approvals that could accelerate deployment.

What did this article say?

The article reviews Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) stock performance over the past ten years, highlighting its growth from a spin‑off to the largest U.S. refiner after the 2018 Andeavor acquisition. It provides a retrospective look at how a $1,000 investment would have appreciated, offering context for long‑term investors. No new operational or financial data is presented, so the piece serves purely as a historical reference.

What did this article say?

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is projected to deliver a robust EPS of $23.15, a 669% increase YoY, while revenue is expected to decline 8% to $32.84 billion for the quarter. The company’s annual guidance forecasts earnings of $59.15 per share and revenue of $154.8 billion, up 453% and 14% respectively from last year. The market has already priced in the upside, with MPC shares outperforming the S&P 500 and the Oil‑Energy sector in recent trading. Investors should monitor the upcoming earnings release for confirmation of the EPS surge and any commentary on the revenue decline.

What did this article say?

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) will hold its third‑quarter 2026 earnings conference call on November 3, 2026, at 11 a.m. EST. The call and a one‑month replay will be available on the company’s website, with financial releases posted beforehand. No financial guidance or performance details are provided in this announcement.

What did this article say?

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has surged over 150% YTD, approaching 52‑week highs, yet analysts caution that the current valuation may already be priced in. The rally is driven by a strong crack spread and robust refining margins, but the steep gains raise concerns about a potential pullback. Investors should monitor MPC’s earnings guidance, refinery utilization rates, and any shifts in crude supply dynamics that could impact margins.

What did this article say?

MPC is highlighted as a relative price strength pick in a rising‑rate environment, suggesting the stock is outperforming peers despite broader market volatility. The analysis notes that MPC’s resilience aligns with continued economic growth and selective investor focus. Traders should watch for MPC’s earnings guidance and any shifts in fuel demand that could affect its operating margins.

What did this article say?

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has satisfied the Minervini Trend Template, indicating robust growth momentum and strong relative strength. The company’s earnings per share growth remains explosive, supporting a bullish outlook. However, a weak setup rating suggests that the current entry point may not be optimal, and traders should monitor for a clearer catalyst before committing significant capital.

What did this article say?

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is positioned for a near‑term earnings lift as oil prices climb above $100 and Middle East refinery outages constrain supply. The prolonged Iranian crisis is seen as a minor factor, while the company’s robust refining footprint should capture the upside. Analysts note that demand‑side risks—such as inflation or a recession—remain a concern if high prices persist, but the current environment is viewed as highly bullish. The rating upgrade reflects confidence in MPC’s ability to convert higher input costs into margin expansion.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

100

BUY

Technical indicators reflect the latest computed signal mix for this timeframe.

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Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership

4 tracked managers · $2.18B combined position · 2 adding, 2 trimming, 0 unchanged (latest 13F filings)

Manager	Trend	Shares Held	% of Co.	Position Value	Filed
Geode Capital Management, LLC	▲ Buy	8,351,157	3.02%	$2.13B	2026-08-12
Marshall Wace, LLP	▼ Sell	126,027	0.05%	$32.22M	2026-08-13
Neuberger Berman Group LLC	▲ Buy	89,835	0.03%	$22.97M	2026-08-13
Ancora Advisors LLC	▼ Sell	8,918	0.00%	$2.28M	2026-08-14

Q2 2026 flow:533.0K sh bought ($135.79M)257.6K sh sold ($65.87M)net +275.4K sh (+$69.91M)

Congressional Trading Activity

12 disclosed trades · ~$145.0K est. traded value · 3 buys, 9 sells

Member	Chamber	State	Type	Amount	Traded	Filed
David J. Taylor	House	OH02	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2026-07-24	2026-08-06
Dan Newhouse	House	WA04	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2026-07-10	2026-07-17
David J. Taylor	House	OH02	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2026-03-11	2026-03-20
David J. Taylor	House	OH02	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2026-02-26	2026-03-06
David J. Taylor	House	OH02	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-08-14	2025-09-02
David J. Taylor	House	OH02	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-07-18	2025-09-02
Rob Bresnahan	House	PA08	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-05-15	2025-05-31
Jefferson Shreve	House	IN06	▼ Sell	$15K - $50K	2025-05-12	2025-06-22
Dan Newhouse	House	WA04	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-04-11	2025-05-16
Rob Bresnahan	House	PA08	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-04-08	2025-05-08
Julie Johnson	House	TX32	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-04-01	2025-05-14
Jefferson Shreve	House	IN06	▲ Buy	$15K - $50K	2025-03-05	2025-04-11

MPC·Marathon Petroleum Corporation

EPS

Revenue

MPC Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into MPC?

What MPC's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of MPC's sector?

What is the options market pricing for MPC?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MPC?

MPC Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Market Status

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Portfolio News

Economic Events

Earnings Events

Economic News

MPC·Marathon Petroleum Corporation

EPS

Revenue

MPC Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into MPC?

What MPC's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of MPC's sector?

What is the options market pricing for MPC?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MPC?

MPC Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

Market Status

Recently Viewed

Portfolio

Email Alerts

Portfolio News

Economic Events

Earnings Events

Economic News