DailyIQ
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Sector:EnergyAll sectors
Last updated 3 minutes ago

MPC·Marathon Petroleum Corporation

$.
+. (+.%)
Pre-Market
High
$286.66
Open
$286.66
Market Cap
82.83B
52W High
$287.15
Low
$285.51
P. Close
$283.43
P/E
17.88
52W Low
$158.00
Fwd P/E
12.02
DailyIQ Est.
$282.82
Technical Score (1D)
86
BUY
News Sentiment
86
BULLISH
Jefferies raised its price target for Marathon Petroleum to $335 from $296, citing confidence in refining margins and the potential upside from higher crude prices. Evercore ISI followed suit, lifting its target to $300 from $245 and expressing optimism about profitability amid stable fuel demand. BMO Capital also increased its target to $320 from $290, indicating a belief that the company can capture margin expansion from higher gasoline demand. JPMorgan adjusted its target to $300 from $257, noting a modest improvement tied to stable refining volumes. The consensus of higher targets signals a bullish view on MPC’s near‑term earnings potential as margins tighten. This upward consensus suggests traders should anticipate a potential rally over the next 1–10 trading days if earnings confirm the outlook. Key watch items include MPC’s upcoming earnings report, which will reveal actual margin performance and guidance. Monitoring U.S. crude inventories and gasoline consumption trends will help gauge the supply‑demand balance that drives margins. Regulatory updates affecting refinery operations and any shifts in crude supply dynamics should also be tracked for potential impact.
Earnings Summary
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a fully integrated downstream energy company that refines crude oil into transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt, and distributes them through an extensive network, while also operating midstream and renewable diesel segments; it is a major player in the U.S. oil and gas refining and marketing industry. In recent quarters, Marathon posted a strong EPS beat in Q4 2024 (0.77 vs 0.02) and Q1 2025 (‑0.24 vs ‑0.54), a further beat in Q2 2025 (3.96 vs 3.22), a miss in Q3 2025 (3.01 vs 3.16), a significant beat in Q4 2025 (4.07 vs 1.28), and a miss in Q1 2026 (1.65 vs 9.51); revenue fluctuated from $33.47 billion in Q4 2024 to $31.85 billion in Q1 2025 (‑4.8%), then rose to $34.10 billion in Q2 2025 (+2.2%), peaked at $35.85 billion in Q3 2025 (+5.7%), fell to $33.42 billion in Q4 2025 (+4.0% from Q3), and declined slightly to $34.57 billion in Q1 2026 (‑1.6%). Historically, Marathon has delivered four EPS beats and two misses over six quarters, with revenue growth largely positive after Q1 2025 but modest overall, and margins benefiting from elevated crack spreads due to Russian refinery outages, though regulatory risk remains. Recent news underscores a protest at the Garyville refinery that could disrupt shipping logistics, the addition of Marathon to several Russell growth indices that may boost passive demand, and ongoing high margins from Russia outages that support dividend and buyback programs; these developments highlight both operational strengths and potential regulatory and logistical vulnerabilities. Investors should watch the Q2 2026 earnings release for updates on refining margins, shipping logistics, and any regulatory announcements that could tighten windfall taxes or margin caps, as well as index rebalancing activity that may influence short‑term liquidity and valuation.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-2.52$1.76$6.05$10.33$14.61Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$12.63 - -
Q1'26$9.51$1.65-82.6%
Q4'25$1.28$4.07+217.5%
Q3'25$3.16$3.01-4.9%
Q2'25$3.22$3.96+23.0%
Q1'25$-0.54$-0.24+55.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$27.4B$31.4B$35.4B$39.4B$43.4BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$41.6B - -
Q1'26$40.1B$34.6B-13.7%
Q4'25$29.2B$33.4B+14.3%
Q3'25 - $35.8B -
Q2'25 - $34.1B -
Q1'25 - $31.9B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

MPC Stock Snapshot

MPC is currently trading at $286.50, giving Marathon Petroleum Corporation a market cap of 82.83B and a P/E ratio of 17.9. Today's range spans $285.51–$286.66, with shares opening at $286.66 and moving up $3.07 (1.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 86/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 86/100.

Over the past year MPC has traded between $158.00 and $287.15 - the current price is +81.3% off the 52-week low and -0.2% from the high. 25 analysts cover the stock with a Buy consensus and a mean 12-month target of $275.65 (range $186.00–$344.00), implying downside of -3.8%.

The BUY technical setup for MPC (86/100) is worth attention in the context of the broader Energy sector. At $286.50 (near 52-week highs), with 82.83B in capitalization and bullish sentiment at 86/100 The current P/E ratio stands at 17.9., this large-cap name sits at the intersection where momentum strategies and fundamental growth investors both find something to like. Annual range: $158.00–$287.15.

The combination of a BUY signal (86/100) and bullish news sentiment (86/100) puts MPC on the screens of active managers who run quality-momentum overlays — a cohort that can build meaningful positions at 82.83B in Energy market cap without immediately moving the stock. At $286.50 (near 52-week highs in the $158.00–$287.15 range), the entry discipline is clean and the potential re-rating if sentiment continues to improve is meaningful.