MPC·Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

50.3% 92nd pct

Below its peak

-18.5%

vs 200-day average

+35.1%

Up days (1y)

58%

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is currently running 50.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MPC's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 92nd percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 31.1%.

MPC is trading -18.5% below its running peak. Across 13 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -26.3%, and the deepest was -73.0% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +35.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 94th percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year MPC closed higher on 58% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On November specifically: over 13 years of records, MPC finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +2.1% and an average of +3.5%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +5.7% on average, its weakest December at -2.5%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MPC has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 171 of 3,268 sessions (5.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.8% and -11.7%.

Across the last 4 dated reports on file, MPC moved an average of 5.3% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 4 times, with a median move of -4.2% and a largest of -8.1%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MPC's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.