DailyIQ
|
Sector:EnergyAll sectors
Last updated 1 minute ago

MPC·Marathon Petroleum Corporation

$.
+. (+.%)
After Hours
High
$321.00
Open
$319.26
Market Cap
92.05B
52W High
$319.36
Low
$314.00
P. Close
$319.73
P/E
19.87
52W Low
$158.00
Fwd P/E
12.61
DailyIQ Est.
$297.82
Technical Score (1D)
95
BUY
News Sentiment
50
MIXED
The most recent analysis indicates that Marathon Petroleum may be trading below intrinsic value according to a DCF model, while market multiples suggest it is pricey, and the upcoming earnings will clarify refining margin expectations and regulatory risks. This valuation gap matters because the next 1–10 trading days will see the market digest the earnings report, which analysts expect to show triple‑digit EPS growth driven by robust margins and higher crude prices. The strong refining margins are supported by domestic crude sourcing that limits exposure to volatile international markets, and strategic upgrades are expected to improve operational efficiency, sustaining margin gains. Analysts have been raising price targets—Argus to $334, Citigroup to $303, and Jefferies to $335—reflecting confidence in MPC’s cost control and margin outlook, which could influence short‑term trading activity. The upcoming earnings release on August 4 will also provide guidance on future capital expenditures and margin expectations, which traders should monitor closely. In addition, Elemental Royalty’s $25 million investment expands MPC’s royalty stake on the Chapi copper project, potentially boosting cash flow as production ramps up, but this is a longer‑term catalyst. Regulatory risk remains a concern, as protests over foreign vessels operating under the Jones Act waiver could prompt scrutiny and affect shipping logistics, though the immediate impact is uncertain. Traders should watch for the earnings announcement, any updates on refinery utilization or crude inventory levels, and any regulatory statements that could affect throughput or logistics planning. If the earnings confirm the projected margin expansion, the market may adjust the valuation gap, potentially narrowing the difference between DCF and multiples and influencing short‑term price action.
Earnings Summary
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a fully integrated U.S. downstream energy company that refines crude oil into fuels, heavy fuel oil and asphalt, and markets these products through a broad network. Its operations are divided into Refining & Marketing, Midstream and Renewable Diesel segments, giving it control over a large portion of the value chain. In Q4 2024 Marathon posted EPS of $0.77 versus an estimate of $0.02, a significant beat, with revenue of $33.47 B, a 4.9% year‑over‑year increase. Q1 2025 EPS of –$0.24 beat the –$0.54 estimate, while revenue fell to $31.85 B, a 4.9% decline. Q2 2025 EPS of $3.96 beat the $3.22 estimate, and revenue rose to $34.10 B, a 7.8% increase. Q3 2025 EPS of $3.01 missed the $3.16 estimate, yet revenue climbed to $35.85 B, a 5.1% jump. Q4 2025 EPS of $4.07 beat the $1.28 estimate, with revenue of $33.42 B, a 6.2% decline from Q3. Q1 2026 EPS of $1.65 missed the $9.51 estimate, and revenue was $34.57 B, a 3.5% rise from Q4 2025. Over the six‑quarter period Marathon has delivered revenue growth in most quarters, but EPS has been inconsistent, with four beats and two misses, reflecting margin volatility. The company has benefited from tightening domestic fuel demand and higher gasoline prices, but recent earnings show a mix of strong and weak performance. Analyst upgrades citing higher refining margins, planned refinery upgrades and a $25 M royalty investment in copper production signal bullish sentiment, while the company’s focus on domestic crude sourcing and copper royalties adds new revenue streams. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings for updated margin guidance, refinery utilization rates, domestic fuel demand, and copper price movements, as these factors will shape short‑term profitability and earnings trajectory.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-2.68$1.95$6.59$11.22$15.86Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$13.72 - -
Q1'26$9.51$1.65-82.6%
Q4'25$1.28$4.07+217.5%
Q3'25$3.16$3.01-4.9%
Q2'25$3.22$3.96+23.0%
Q1'25$-0.54$-0.24+55.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$27.3B$31.5B$35.6B$39.8B$43.9BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$42.0B - -
Q1'26$40.1B$34.6B-13.7%
Q4'25$29.2B$33.4B+14.3%
Q3'25 - $35.8B -
Q2'25 - $34.1B -
Q1'25 - $31.9B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

MPC Stock Snapshot

MPC is currently trading at $319.00, giving Marathon Petroleum Corporation a market cap of 92.05B and a P/E ratio of 19.9. Today's range spans $314.00–$321.00, with shares opening at $319.26 and moving down $0.73 (0.2%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 95/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 50/100.

Over the past year MPC has traded between $158.00 and $319.36 - the current price is +101.9% off the 52-week low and -0.1% from the high. 25 analysts cover the stock with a Buy consensus and a mean 12-month target of $290.65 (range $186.00–$344.00), implying downside of -8.9%.

What MPC has right now - BUY signal, 95/100 technical score, neutral sentiment at 50/100, price $319.00 (near 52-week highs) - is the profile that shows up in screens looking for Energy growth stories with technical confirmation. (P/E: 19.9) At 92.05B in capitalization, the risk/reward of a setup like this is often better than in mega-cap peers where the same signal translates to a smaller percentage move. Range: $158.00–$319.36.

The combination of a BUY signal (95/100) and neutral news sentiment (50/100) puts MPC on the screens of active managers who run quality-momentum overlays — a cohort that can build meaningful positions at 92.05B in Energy market cap without immediately moving the stock. At $319.00 (near 52-week highs in the $158.00–$319.36 range), the entry discipline is clean and the potential re-rating if sentiment continues to improve is meaningful.