TPL·Texas Pacific Land Corporation
TPL|Analyst Targets
TPL|Company Info
TPL|Insider Trading
TPL|Fundamentals
TPL|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $2.64 | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $2.35 | $2.42 | +3.1% |
| Q2'26 | $2.18 | $2.23 | +2.1% |
| Q1'26 | $2.04 | $2.07 | +1.5% |
| Q4'25 | $3.63 | $1.79 | -50.7% |
| Q3'25 | $1.92 | $1.76 | -8.7% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $278M | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $250M | $273M | +9.1% |
| Q2'26 | $257M | $246M | -4.1% |
| Q1'26 | $242M | $237M | -2.1% |
| Q4'25 | $216M | $212M | -2.1% |
| Q3'25 | - | - | - |
TPL|Monthly Returns
Market Data
TPL Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 20.79B
- P/E ratio
- 38.4
- Day range
- $274.00 – $278.20
- News sentiment
- 57/100 · Neutral
- Analyst target
- $443.00 (+59.2%)
- Consensus
- Buy · 9 analysts
Momentum has flattened on TPL, leaving the next move dependent on news rather than the chart. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.
Behaviour On Record
What TPL's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 59.1% 89th pct
- Below its peak
- -48.1%
- vs 200-day average
- -25.5%
- Up days (1y)
- 51%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is currently running 59.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TPL's own 6 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 89th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 41.7%.
TPL is trading -48.1% below its running peak. Across 6 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -37.9%, and the deepest was -46.9% in 2026. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.
Price sits -25.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 6th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TPL closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.
On November specifically: over 5 years of records, TPL finished the month higher 2 of 5 times, with a median return of -6.8% and an average of +4.6%. Its strongest month historically has been February at +16.9% on average, its weakest December at -7.2%.
Overnight risk is measurable too: TPL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 121 of 1,461 sessions (8.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.2% and -7.2%.
Across the last 4 dated reports on file, TPL moved an average of 6.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 4 times, with a median move of +1.3% and a largest of +13.6%.
All figures computed from 1,462 daily closes between 2021-01-12 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TPL's own 6-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of TPL's sector?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation sits in the Energy sector, currently ranked 8th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).
- Sector rank
- #8 of 12
- Sector state
- Weakening
- Sector rotation score
- 18
Analyst Consensus Estimates
What do analysts expect TPL to earn?
Analysts expect Texas Pacific Land Corporation to earn $9.24 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $10.20 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, from 2 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TPL?
Keybanc most recently reiterated its rating on Texas Pacific Land Corporation to Overweight on Feb 23, 2026 with a price target of $639 (from $350). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.
- Latest action
- Keybanc: Overweight
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 0
- Net rating momentum
- 0
Earnings Release, Scored
What did Texas Pacific Land Corporation's latest earnings release say?
Most important lines
- 1
Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 were $756.3 million compared to $586.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025.
- 2
The increase in operating expenses was principally related to a $12.9 million increase in depreciation, depletion and amortization, a $9.9 million increase in general and administrative expenses, a $4.7 million increase in salaries and related employee expenses, and a $3.7 million increase in water service-related expenses during the nine months ended September 30, 2026 compared to the same period of 2025.
- 3
Water sales decreased in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the second quarter of 2026 due to a decrease in average realized pricing, partially offset by an increase in water sales volumes.
Negative tone
Peers & ETF holders
TPL peers & ETF holders
Oil & Gas E&PMarket cap · today
News & sentiment
What is the news saying about TPL?
TPL fell 19.9% over the month to Nov 5. News tone held between 0 and 75 from Oct 5 to Oct 20, then dropped to 0 on Oct 21.
- Oct 8 +4.6%same day: Texas Pacific Land Corporation Sets Dates for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
- Nov 4 -13.4%same day: Texas Pacific: Q3 Earnings Snapshot
- Nov 5 -5.4%same day: Texas Pacific Land Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Technical analysis
How strong is TPL's momentum right now?
On the daily chart TPL ranks at the 56th percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a neutral reading.
Institutional ownership
Are big funds buying or selling TPL?
92 of the 165 tracked managers added to TPL in their latest 13F and 70 trimmed. Together they own 41.2% of the company, worth $13.4B. BlackRock and State Street alone hold 12.4%.
- 1BlackRock, Inc.7.09%$2.3B positionTrimmed 11.0% last quarter
- 2State Street Corp5.30%$1.7B positionAdded 4.8% last quarter
- $1.7B positionAdded 0.7% last quarter
- $1.4B positionAdded 1.3% last quarter
- $717.9M positionAdded 0.8% last quarter
- 6First Manhattan Co. LLC1.42%$466.0M positionAdded 0.2% last quarter
- 7Morgan Stanley1.30%$425.5M positionAdded 0.8% last quarter
- 8Invesco Ltd.0.96%$313.2M positionAdded 15.0% last quarter
- $283.5M positionAdded 5.6% last quarter
- 10Northern Trust Corp0.72%$236.6M positionTrimmed 0.8% last quarter
Congressional trading
Is Congress trading TPL?
2 members of Congress disclosed 3 TPL trades between Apr 8 and Aug 13, 2025: 2 buys and 1 sell, about $24.0K in estimated value.
What stands out
Click one to highlight its trades in the chartDiscover more
How has TPL done against its peers?
Over the six months to Nov 5, TPL returned −36.7%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, all did better, led by MPC at +44.8%.
- 1MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporationup 44.8%+81.6 pts
- 2VLOValero Energy Corporationup 39.9%+76.6 pts
- 3PSXPhillips 66up 37.3%+74.0 pts
- 4SHELShell PLCup 12.0%+48.7 pts
- 5CVXChevron Corporationup 11.2%+47.9 pts
- 6COPConocoPhillipsup 10.5%+47.2 pts
- 7XOMExxon Mobil Corporationup 7.2%+44.0 pts
- 8XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fundup 4.3%+41.0 pts
- 16TPLThis stockdown 36.7%