TPL·Texas Pacific Land Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

41.2% 48th pct

Below its peak

-39.6%

vs 200-day average

-11.6%

Up days (1y)

51%

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is currently running 41.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TPL's own 6 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 48th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 41.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TPL is trading -39.6% below its running peak. Across 5 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -36.6%, and the deepest was -42.6% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -11.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 23rd percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TPL closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 6 years of records, TPL finished the month higher 1 of 6 times, with a median return of -2.7% and an average of -2.4%. Its strongest month historically has been February at +16.9% on average, its weakest December at -7.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TPL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 119 of 1,425 sessions (8.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.2% and -7.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, TPL moved an average of 6.9% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -1.5% and a largest of +13.6%.

All figures computed from 1,426 daily closes between 2021-01-12 and 2026-09-16, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TPL's own 6-year history, not a peer group or index.