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DailyIQ
Last updated29 minutes ago

TPL·Texas Pacific Land Corporation

$272.18
+6.02 (+2.21%)
Overnight$278.20+6.02 (+2.21%)
High
$278.20
Open
$0.00
Market Cap
20.79B
52W High
$548.50
Low
$274.00
P. Close
$272.18
P/E
38.41
52W Low
$269.23
Fwd P/E
3.76
DailyIQ Est.
$458.32
Inst. Own.
41.2%
Short Interest
5.67%
Days to Cover
14.9
Div. Yield
0.86%
Next Ex-Div
~Dec 1
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Nov 4, 2026tone -5.8 vs prior release · 86 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
56
BULLISH
News Sentiment
57
BULLISH
On Nov 4, Texas Pacific Land reported record revenue and earnings per share for the third quarter of 2026, beating analyst expectations and lifting its shares after a steep slide earlier that week. The company cited growth opportunities in data center and water services as key drivers of the strong results. On the same day, the company also posted a 34.6% year‑on‑year revenue increase to $273.4 million and GAAP earnings per share of $2.42, 4% above consensus estimates, underscoring robust demand for its West Texas land assets. In after‑hours trading, TPL shares rose more than 4% as the market welcomed the earnings and revenue beats. However, on Nov 4, TPL shares fell 6% following the Democratic midterm victory and the governor‑elect’s proposal for a moratorium on new data centers, which raised concerns about future data center growth in Texas. The sell‑off was driven by political risk rather than operational changes, according to the reports. Additionally, TPL expanded its water solutions portfolio in the Permian Basin, adding source and recycled water services and developing new reuse capabilities, though the company faces a heavy spending cycle and regulatory risks that could temper upside potential.
LOW TARGET
$247 -9.3%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$443 +62.8%
3 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$639 +134.8%
4 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$247.00 - $639.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
2/4/1/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$458.32 (+68.4%)
Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas E&P
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Symbol
TPL
Description
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) operates primarily within the Permian Basin, leveraging its extensive land holdings and water resources to capitalize on the region's energy activity. The company's core business revolves around two key segments: Land and Resource Management, which generates revenue through easements for infrastructure like pipelines and utilities, as well as land sales and material sales. Simultaneously, TPL's Water Services and Operations segment provides comprehensive water solutions, including sourcing, treatment, and disposal services, catering to the needs of oil and gas operators. This strategic positioning allows TPL to benefit from both the physical land assets and the crucial water infrastructure required for energy production within the prolific Permian Basin, with additional revenue from its royalty interests. Founded in 1888 and based in Dallas, Texas, the company owns significant nonparticipating royalty interests across a substantial acreage in the Permian Basin.
Bought (1Y)
105 shares
$40K
Sold (1Y)
4,000 shares
$1.6M
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC-
J961 shares2026-11-02
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC-
Buy4 shares2026-09-29
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC-
Buy1 shares2026-09-28
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC-
Buy1 shares2026-09-25
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC-
Buy1 shares2026-09-24
91/ 100
Strong bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Net Margin
60.3%
Revenue CAGR
15.0%
Current Ratio
4.40x
Return on Equity
33.0%
Earnings Summary
In the most recent quarters, TPL’s earnings trajectory shows a mix of growth and volatility: Q3 2026 delivered EPS of $2.42 against a $2.3483 estimate, while revenue rose 34.6% YoY to $273.4 million, slightly below the $250.48 million estimate but still a strong increase from prior periods. Compared to Q2 2026, EPS grew modestly from $2.23 to $2.42, and revenue increased from $246.06 million to $273.39 million, indicating a continued upward trend in both metrics. Historically, the company has posted consistent revenue growth over the past four quarters, with EPS generally meeting or slightly exceeding consensus, though Q4 2025 saw a significant EPS miss relative to the $3.631 estimate. This pattern suggests that while revenue momentum remains robust, earnings can be sensitive to cost or operational factors. Recent news highlights TPL’s expansion of its water solutions portfolio, adding source and recycled water services and new reuse capabilities in the Permian Basin, which the company cites as a key driver of its strong Q3 2026 results. The announcement also underscores regulatory and spending cycle risks that could temper upside potential.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.48$2.08$2.69$3.30$3.91Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$2.64 - -
Q3'26$2.35$2.42+3.1%
Q2'26$2.18$2.23+2.1%
Q1'26$2.04$2.07+1.5%
Q4'25$3.63$1.79-50.7%
Q3'25$1.92$1.76-8.7%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$202M$223M$245M$267M$288MQ4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$278M - -
Q3'26$250M$273M+9.1%
Q2'26$257M$246M-4.1%
Q1'26$242M$237M-2.1%
Q4'25$216M$212M-2.1%
Q3'25 - - -

Market Data

TPL Stock Snapshot

NEUTRAL56/100
$278.20+$6.02 (2.2%)
Market cap
20.79B
P/E ratio
38.4
Day range
$274.00 – $278.20
News sentiment
57/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$443.00 (+59.2%)
Consensus
Buy · 9 analysts
52-week range+3.3% off low · -49.3% from high
$269.23$548.50
Price $278.20 DailyIQ Est. $458.32

Momentum has flattened on TPL, leaving the next move dependent on news rather than the chart. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Behaviour On Record

What TPL's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
59.1% 89th pct
Below its peak
-48.1%
vs 200-day average
-25.5%
Up days (1y)
51%

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is currently running 59.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TPL's own 6 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 89th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 41.7%.

TPL is trading -48.1% below its running peak. Across 6 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -37.9%, and the deepest was -46.9% in 2026. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -25.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 6th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TPL closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On November specifically: over 5 years of records, TPL finished the month higher 2 of 5 times, with a median return of -6.8% and an average of +4.6%. Its strongest month historically has been February at +16.9% on average, its weakest December at -7.2%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TPL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 121 of 1,461 sessions (8.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.2% and -7.2%.

Across the last 4 dated reports on file, TPL moved an average of 6.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 4 times, with a median move of +1.3% and a largest of +13.6%.

All figures computed from 1,462 daily closes between 2021-01-12 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TPL's own 6-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of TPL's sector?

Texas Pacific Land Corporation sits in the Energy sector, currently ranked 8th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#8 of 12
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
18

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for TPL?

CallsPuts

For Texas Pacific Land Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-11-20, 14 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 2.25), with at-the-money implied volatility around 59.5%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±11.3% move by that expiry — a range of about $278.70–$349.88.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-20)
2.25
ATM implied volatility
59.5%
Total open interest
1,877
Expected move by 2026-11-20
±11.3% ($278.70–$349.88)

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect TPL to earn?

Analysts expect Texas Pacific Land Corporation to earn $9.24 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $10.20 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, from 2 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Sep 2026$2.33$2.28 to $2.372$257M1
Dec 2026$2.61$2.53 to $2.692$281M1
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$9.24$9.12 to $9.372$1.02B1
Dec 2027$10.20$10.14 to $10.272$1.14B1

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TPL?

Keybanc most recently reiterated its rating on Texas Pacific Land Corporation to Overweight on Feb 23, 2026 with a price target of $639 (from $350). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Keybanc: Overweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Feb 23, 2026KeybancMaintainedOverweight$350 → $639
Dec 2, 2025KeybancInitiatedOverweight$1050
Aug 12, 2024BWS FinancialMaintainedBuy$917
May 10, 2024BWS FinancialMaintainedBuy$917
Apr 2, 2024BWS FinancialMaintainedBuy$917
Jan 23, 2024StifelMaintainedHold$1558 → $1414
Nov 30, 2023StifelMaintainedHold$1613 → $1558
May 22, 2023StifelMaintainedHold$1399 → $1378
Apr 27, 2023StifelMaintainedHold$1396 → $1399
Apr 12, 2023StifelMaintainedHold$1598 → $1396
Sep 29, 2021Credit SuisseInitiatedUnderperform$800
May 10, 2021BWS FinancialMaintainedBuy$1700 → $2000

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Texas Pacific Land Corporation's latest earnings release say?

Filed Nov 4, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Tone59.4/ 100-5.8 vs prior release
Hedging words0.27per 100 words+0.10 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 50–74

Most important lines

  1. 1

    Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 were $756.3 million compared to $586.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025.

  2. 2

    The increase in operating expenses was principally related to a $12.9 million increase in depreciation, depletion and amortization, a $9.9 million increase in general and administrative expenses, a $4.7 million increase in salaries and related employee expenses, and a $3.7 million increase in water service-related expenses during the nine months ended September 30, 2026 compared to the same period of 2025.

  3. 3

    Water sales decreased in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the second quarter of 2026 due to a decrease in average realized pricing, partially offset by an increase in water sales volumes.

    Negative tone

Peers & ETF holders

TPL peers & ETF holders

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about TPL?

TPL fell 19.9% over the month to Nov 5. News tone held between 0 and 75 from Oct 5 to Oct 20, then dropped to 0 on Oct 21.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 5 to Nov 5
$300$350Oct 5: tone 70Oct 6Oct 7Oct 8: tone 52Oct 9Oct 12: tone 0Oct 13: tone 50Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 19Oct 20: tone 75Oct 21: tone 0Oct 22Oct 23: tone 65Oct 26Oct 27Oct 28: tone 50Oct 29Oct 30: tone 48Nov 2: tone 42Nov 3Nov 4: tone 67Nov 5: tone 59Oct 5News toneNov 5123
  1. Oct 8 +4.6%same day: Texas Pacific Land Corporation Sets Dates for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
  2. Nov 4 -13.4%same day: Texas Pacific: Q3 Earnings Snapshot
  3. Nov 5 -5.4%same day: Texas Pacific Land Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary

Technical analysis

How strong is TPL's momentum right now?

On the daily chart TPL ranks at the 56th percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a neutral reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling TPL?

92 of the 165 tracked managers added to TPL in their latest 13F and 70 trimmed. Together they own 41.2% of the company, worth $13.4B. BlackRock and State Street alone hold 12.4%.

92adding70trimming3unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of TPL
  1. $2.3B positionTrimmed 11.0% last quarter
  2. $1.7B positionAdded 4.8% last quarter
  3. $1.7B positionAdded 0.7% last quarter
  4. $1.4B positionAdded 1.3% last quarter
  5. $717.9M positionAdded 0.8% last quarter
  6. $466.0M positionAdded 0.2% last quarter
  7. $425.5M positionAdded 0.8% last quarter
  8. $313.2M positionAdded 15.0% last quarter
  9. $283.5M positionAdded 5.6% last quarter
  10. $236.6M positionTrimmed 0.8% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading TPL?

2 members of Congress disclosed 3 TPL trades between Apr 8 and Aug 13, 2025: 2 buys and 1 sell, about $24.0K in estimated value.

BuysSellsAprMayJunJulAug
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

What stands out

Click one to highlight its trades in the chart

Discover more

How has TPL done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 5, TPL returned −36.7%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, all did better, led by MPC at +44.8%.

Change since May 5, through Nov 5
−50%0%+50%+100%May 5JunJulAugSepOctNov 5MPC +44.8%TPL −36.7%