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ON·ON Semiconductor Corporation

$73.20
+1.55 (+2.16%)
High
$74.75
Open
$73.36
Market Cap
28.31B
52W High
$136.63
Low
$71.10
P. Close
$73.20
P/E
44.93
52W Low
$44.10
Fwd P/E
15.82
DailyIQ Est.
$109.59
Inst. Ownership
-
Short Interest
7.82%
Days to Cover
4.5
Technical Score (1D)
27
SELL
News Sentiment
46
MIXED
ON Semiconductor’s shares fell 5.9% today, a sharper slide than the 0.48% decline in the S&P 500, reflecting short‑term market volatility rather than a fundamental shift. The drop comes ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings release, which analysts expect to confirm a 42.9% year‑over‑year EPS jump to $0.90 and a 9.6% revenue rise to $1.70 billion. The guidance remains above last year’s levels, suggesting upside potential that may temper the current sell‑off. Because the stock has lagged peers over the past month, the market is watching whether the earnings beat will translate into a rebound or simply reinforce a cautious stance. The earnings announcement will be a key catalyst for the next 1–10 trading days; a stronger than expected report could lift the stock, while a miss could deepen the decline. Investors should also monitor the company’s guidance for any adjustments to its 2025 outlook, as that will influence longer‑term sentiment. Additionally, watch for any commentary on supply‑chain constraints or new product launches that could impact the semiconductor cycle. Finally, keep an eye on broader technology sector sentiment, as a shift there could amplify ON’s price movement in the coming days.
Earnings Summary
ON Semiconductor is a global provider of intelligent sensing and power solutions, operating through Power Solutions, Analog and Mixed‑Signal, and Intelligent Sensing segments that serve automotive, industrial, and computing markets. The company is positioned within the broader semiconductor sector, which is experiencing a shift toward high‑margin silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) technologies. In the most recent quarters, ON reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.53 billion, slightly below the $1.58 billion estimate, and EPS of $0.64 versus an estimate of $0.6414, indicating a marginal miss on earnings but a strong performance relative to prior periods. Q1 2026 revenue was $1.513 billion against an estimate of $1.531 billion, with EPS of $0.64 beating the $0.6195 forecast; Q2 2026 revenue of $1.603 billion fell short of the $1.636 billion estimate, while EPS of $0.74 exceeded the $0.7363 expectation. Over the last four quarters, ON has consistently met or exceeded EPS estimates in three of four reports, while revenue has trended upward from $1.722 billion in Q4 2024 to $1.603 billion in Q2 2026, reflecting a modest acceleration in top‑line growth. Historically, the company has shown a YoY revenue growth trajectory that has outpaced EPS growth, with notable beats in earnings during periods of margin expansion, particularly in the transition to SiC/GaN products. Recent news highlights a strategic pivot to high‑margin SiC and GaN chips, with AI data‑center revenue projected to more than double by 2026 and operating margins climbing to 19.5% from 16.5% last year; this structural shift is expected to lift earnings in the coming quarters. Investors should watch for guidance on SiC/GaN ramp‑up, updates on key customer contracts in AI and automotive sectors, and any commentary on raw material costs or supply‑chain constraints, as these factors will determine whether the projected revenue and margin expansion materialize in the next reporting period.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.48$0.59$0.70$0.81$0.92Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.87 - -
Q2'26$0.74$0.74+0.5%
Q1'26$0.62$0.64+3.3%
Q4'25$0.64$0.64-0.2%
Q3'25$0.59$0.63+6.6%
Q2'25$0.53$0.53-0.4%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.4B$1.5B$1.6B$1.7B$1.8BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$1.8B - -
Q2'26$1.6B$1.6B-2.0%
Q1'26$1.5B$1.5B-1.2%
Q4'25$1.6B$1.5B-3.3%
Q3'25 - $1.6B -
Q2'25 - $1.5B -

Market Data

ON Stock Snapshot

SELL27/100
$73.20+$1.55 (2.2%)
Market cap
28.31B
P/E ratio
44.9
Day range
$71.10 – $74.75
News sentiment
46/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$106.88 (+46.0%)
Consensus
Hold · 40 analysts
52-week range+66.0% off low · -46.4% from high
$44.10$136.63
Price $73.20 DailyIQ Est. $109.59

Price action on ON is defensive - rallies are being sold rather than extended. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into ON?

RICH

At today's price, ON Semiconductor Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 20.6% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 12.31% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 13.4% a year, so the market is asking for 7.2 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis ON looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
20.6%
Historical FCF CAGR
13.4%
Growth gap
+7.2 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
12.31%
Beta
1.67

Behaviour On Record

What ON's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
51.4% 74th pct
Below its peak
-45.8%
vs 200-day average
-8.5%
Up days (1y)
53%

ON Semiconductor Corporation is currently running 51.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ON's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 74th percentile a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 40.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ON is trading -45.8% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -31.6%, and the deepest was -65.4% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -8.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 19th percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year ON closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 14 years of records, ON finished the month higher 7 of 14 times, with a median return of -0.1% and an average of -0.4%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +6.2% on average, its weakest March at -3.7%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ON has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 311 of 3,268 sessions (9.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +13.6% and -8.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, ON moved an average of 6.8% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +5.9% and a largest of +7.5%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ON's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of ON's sector?

ON Semiconductor Corporation sits in the Technology sector, currently ranked 6th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging). Within its narrower Semiconductors industry group, ON ranks 13th of 15 tracked industries, lagging.

Sector rank
#6 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
50
Industry rank
#13 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for ON?

CallsPuts

For ON Semiconductor Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.52), with at-the-money implied volatility around 86.7%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±7.2% move by that expiry — a range of about $67.86–$78.44.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.52
ATM implied volatility
86.7%
Total open interest
63,677
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±7.2% ($67.86–$78.44)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on ON?

Wells Fargo most recently reiterated its rating on ON Semiconductor Corporation to Overweight on Sep 3, 2026 with a price target of $95 (from $110). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Wells FargoOverweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 3, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$110 → $95
Aug 17, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldReiteratedNeutral$110
Aug 5, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$120 → $98
Aug 5, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedHold$101 → $91
Aug 4, 2026MizuhoMaintainedOutperform$125 → $110
Aug 4, 2026B. Riley SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$135 → $127
Aug 4, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$130 → $110
Aug 4, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldReiteratedNeutral$110
Aug 4, 2026RosenblattMaintainedNeutral$85
Aug 4, 2026BairdMaintainedNeutral$100 → $108
Aug 4, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$130 → $116
Jul 20, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$140 → $130

ON Competitive Positioning

ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) is tracked alongside these names in Semiconductors on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.