ON|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $0.87 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $0.74 | $0.74 | +0.5% |
| Q1'26 | $0.62 | $0.64 | +3.3% |
| Q4'25 | $0.64 | $0.64 | -0.2% |
| Q3'25 | $0.59 | $0.63 | +6.6% |
| Q2'25 | $0.53 | $0.53 | -0.4% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $1.8B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $1.6B | $1.6B | -2.0% |
| Q1'26 | $1.5B | $1.5B | -1.2% |
| Q4'25 | $1.6B | $1.5B | -3.3% |
| Q3'25 | - | $1.6B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $1.5B | - |
Market Data
ON Stock Snapshot
ON is currently trading at $72.00, giving ON Semiconductor Corporation a market cap of 32.64B and a P/E ratio of 51.8. Today's range spans $71.63–$73.75, with shares opening at $73.13 and moving up $0.07 (0.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 23/100 (SELL) with a news sentiment reading of 71/100.
Over the past year ON has traded between $44.56 and $134.92 - the current price is +61.6% off the 52-week low and -46.6% from the high. 40 analysts cover the stock with a Hold consensus and a mean 12-month target of $107.68 (range $85.00–$150.00), implying upside of +49.6%.
The technical and sentiment data for ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) both point lower - 23/100, SELL, sentiment bullish at 71/100, price $72.00 (in the lower half of its 52-week range). The current P/E ratio stands at 51.8. As a large-cap with 32.64B in Technology, this is a name that short sellers actively cover: liquid enough to short with minimal borrowing friction, large enough to matter to a portfolio. Annual range: $44.56–$134.92.
The current SELL phase for ON (23/100) at $72.00 (in the lower half of its 52-week range) suggests that the market is discounting either a fundamental deterioration or a sector headwind that hasn't fully appeared in the earnings line yet. Sentiment at 71/100 (bullish) confirms that news flow is not providing a counternarrative. At 32.64B in Technology capitalization, ON has the liquidity for institutional exits to be orderly, but orderly doesn't mean shallow within the $44.56–$134.92 range.
Company Insights: ON Semiconductor (ON)
Sentiment has been falling, with a score of 66 down 15 points over 14 days, indicating a cooling market mood. Despite this, 18 analysts maintain a BUY rating while 20 hold, reflecting cautious optimism. The consensus target of $108.88 offers roughly 26% upside from the 52‑week midpoint of $81.30. At a forward PE of 50.1x, ON trades above the peer average of 29.1x, underscoring a valuation premium. Investors must weigh this premium against potential margin pressure and supply‑chain risks. The company’s diversified manufacturing footprint helps mitigate some exposure, but ongoing monitoring remains essential.
AI & Data Center Demand
AI workloads are driving higher utilization of ON's high‑performance analog and mixed‑signal chips, creating a robust growth engine for the next several years.
The company’s recent Q2 guidance of $1.65–$1.75B revenue suggests sustained expansion that aligns with rising data‑center silicon demand.
Market expectations for data‑center silicon are rising, giving ON a strategic positioning advantage over peers that lack a comparable AI focus.
Power Solutions Resilience
ON's Power Solutions segment supplies critical components for electric vehicles and renewable infrastructure, a sector poised for 30% annual growth.
Global EV adoption is projected to grow 30% annually, supporting long‑term demand for ON's discrete and module products.
The segment's discrete and module products maintain high margin stability amid supply‑chain constraints, ensuring revenue continuity.
Margin Management
Q2 gross margin expanded 80 basis points to 39.3%, reflecting effective cost control and pricing power.
Free‑cash‑flow margin of 27% indicates operational efficiency that can fund R&D and capital returns.
Consistent margin expansion positions ON to sustain dividend growth and share repurchases in the long term.
Peer Valuation
At 50.1x forward PE, ON trades above the peer average of 29.1x, highlighting a valuation premium.
This premium reflects market confidence in its AI and power play, but also signals potential overvaluation risks.
Investors must weigh the valuation lift against possible margin pressure and supply‑chain disruptions.
Sentiment & Analyst Consensus
Sentiment score of 66 has fallen 15 points over 14 days, indicating a cooling market mood.
18 analysts rate BUY while 20 hold, reflecting cautious optimism amid mixed guidance.
The consensus target of $108.88 offers 26% upside from the 52‑week midpoint, providing a clear upside potential.
Supply Chain Risk
Supply‑chain constraints remain a risk as semiconductor fabs face capacity limits and component shortages.
ON’s diversified manufacturing footprint mitigates some exposure but does not eliminate the risk entirely.
Ongoing monitoring of fab utilization and component shortages is essential to manage operational risk.
Positioning ON
ON's share price of $81.30 sits comfortably above its 52‑week low and roughly 30% below the analyst consensus target of $108.88, leaving ample upside if the company confirms its AI‑driven revenue trajectory. A prudent approach is to increase exposure when the price approaches the 52‑week low, as mean‑reversion has historically proven reliable in the semiconductor cycle. Reducing weight is advisable if the stock trades near the high end of the target range, implying limited near‑term upside. Monitor quarterly guidance for confirmation of the $1.65–$1.75B revenue window and margin lift before sizing up. Align position sizing with the stock’s beta and your portfolio’s technology allocation to manage sector risk.
Key Metrics for ON
ON Semiconductor’s valuation hinges on how well it can ride the long‑term shift toward electrification, AI, and data‑center power. The company’s three pillars, Power Solutions, Analog & Mixed‑Signal, and Intelligent Sensing, must each sustain growth while keeping margins healthy. Investors track the rhythm of earnings beats, the spread between analyst consensus and current price, and the momentum of the stock itself, all of which signal whether ON can translate its diversified product mix into sustained shareholder value.
Earnings Beat Rhythm: Quarterly EPS performance has become a barometer for ON’s cost discipline and pricing power. In Q2 2026 the company posted $0.74 versus a $0.74 estimate, a clean beat that matched the prior quarter’s $0.64 beat. The previous quarter, Q1 2026, also beat expectations with $0.64 against $0.62. A miss came in Q4 2025, where EPS matched the estimate at $0.64, and in Q2 2025, where the $0.53 estimate was met exactly. The only other miss was Q4 2024, where $0.95 fell short of the $0.97 forecast. Historically, a streak of consecutive beats has nudged the stock higher, while a pattern of misses has pressured the share price, making the current two‑quarter beat streak a positive sign for the near‑term outlook.
Consensus Gap Signal: The spread between ON’s current price of $81.30 and the analyst mean of $108.88 signals a valuation premium that many investors view as justified by the company’s growth prospects. The high target of $150 sits 84% above the current level, while the low target of $85 is only 5% above the price, creating a wide consensus range. When the stock trades near the high end, analysts often cite the AI and data‑center demand as a catalyst; conversely, trades near the low end reflect concerns about margin pressure. The 33.5% distance from the 52‑week high suggests the market still has room to test the upper bound. Monitoring future analyst revisions will be key, as a tightening of the spread could signal a re‑pricing of the growth narrative.
Momentum Resurgence: The stock’s return profile shows a sharp 1‑month decline of 17.5% and a 3‑month drop of 19.1%, but a 6‑month rebound of 43% and a 1‑year gain of 73.7% illustrate a recovery trajectory. This pattern indicates that short‑term volatility has been absorbed, while longer‑term fundamentals are driving upside. A sustained 1‑month rally would reinforce the narrative that ON’s earnings beats are translating into price appreciation. Conversely, a renewed 1‑month slide could signal renewed skepticism about the company’s ability to maintain margin expansion. The 6‑month recovery suggests that the market is already pricing in the AI‑related growth, but the 1‑month lag highlights the need for consistent quarterly guidance.
Power Solutions Revenue Momentum: Power Solutions, the largest revenue driver, recorded $1.603 billion in Q2 2026, up 6% sequentially and 9% year‑over‑year, underscoring the resilience of automotive and industrial power management demand. The segment’s contribution to total revenue has grown from 53% in Q1 2025 to 57% in Q2 2026, reflecting a shift toward higher‑margin power modules. A healthy power‑solution pipeline is critical because it supports the company’s ability to offset cyclicality in other segments. The recent guidance of $1.65–$1.75 billion for Q3 2026 signals potential margin lift if utilization rates remain strong. Investors should watch for any supply‑chain constraints that could dampen the segment’s growth trajectory.
Analog & Mixed‑Signal Margin Stability: Gross margin in the Analog & Mixed‑Signal group expanded to 39.3% in Q2 2026, an 80‑basis‑point lift from the prior quarter, showcasing effective cost management amid rising input prices. Free‑cash‑flow margin climbed to 27% in the same period, a key indicator that the segment’s profitability is translating into cash generation. Maintaining margin stability is vital because this group serves high‑volume automotive and industrial customers that demand consistent pricing. A decline in margin would erode the company’s ability to invest in R&D for next‑generation sensors. The trend of margin expansion, coupled with a steady revenue base, positions ON to capitalize on the growing demand for power‑efficient mixed‑signal solutions.
What Moves ON Stock?
AI and data‑center demand is the primary engine behind ON Semiconductor’s recent rally, with the stock up 73.7% year‑to‑date. Automotive electrification and industrial automation provide a steady base, while supply‑chain dynamics add short‑term volatility. The 36‑point tech momentum score suggests near‑term upside if AI usage continues to climb. Market sentiment is falling at 66, yet the company’s long‑term growth prospects remain attractive.
AI & Data Center
When AI and data‑center demand spikes, ON’s share price tends to rally, as the company’s high‑margin silicon powers new workloads. The stock has already surged 73.7% year‑to‑date, reflecting the market’s appetite for AI‑enabled infrastructure. Analysts note that the 36‑point tech momentum score supports a near‑term upside if usage continues to climb. A sharp uptick in hyperscaler capex can trigger a quick re‑rating, while any slowdown in AI spending compresses the multiple. Thus, earnings guidance that signals stronger AI demand is a primary catalyst for price moves.
Q2 2026 earnings showed revenue at $1.6 billion, up 6% sequentially and 9% year‑over‑year, with gross margin expanding 80 basis points to 39.3%. Automotive revenue was 781 million, down 2% qoq but up 7% yoy, and industrial revenue rose 1% seq to 423 million. These figures demonstrate that AI and data‑center demand are already contributing to margin lift, while automotive and industrial segments provide a steady base. The company’s free‑cash‑flow margin reached 27% in Q2, underscoring operational efficiency. The upward revision of Q3 revenue guidance to $1.65–$1.75 billion signals continued momentum.
ON’s product portfolio includes high‑performance power‑management ICs and advanced analog solutions that are integral to AI accelerators and data‑center servers. The company’s high utilization rates and pricing power allow it to capture a larger share of the expanding AI market. As hyperscalers commit billions to AI infrastructure, ON stands to benefit from both top‑line growth and margin expansion. The alignment of its silicon roadmap with AI workloads positions it well for sustained demand. Therefore, AI‑related earnings beats are a reliable indicator of future share price appreciation.
Automotive Electrification
Electrified vehicles require more power‑management ICs, and ON’s Power Solutions segment is positioned to capture that shift. The segment’s discrete and module products are designed for high‑efficiency battery management, a core requirement for EVs. As global EV sales climb, demand for these chips is expected to rise steadily. ON’s existing relationships with major OEMs give it a competitive edge in the automotive space. The segment’s growth is a key driver of the company’s long‑term revenue trajectory.
Automotive revenue reached $781 million in Q2 2026, up 7% year‑over‑year but down 2% quarter‑on‑quarter. The automotive market remains cyclical, yet the shift toward electrification mitigates some of the traditional volatility. Over the past five years, automotive revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of roughly 8%, outpacing the overall semiconductor cycle. The recent 6% sequential rise in Q2 demonstrates that ON is keeping pace with the industry’s transition. Analysts have noted that a sustained EV adoption rate could lift automotive revenue to double‑digit growth in the next three years.
When automotive sales accelerate, ON’s share price has historically moved in tandem, reflecting the segment’s contribution to top‑line growth. A quarterly uptick in automotive revenue often triggers a positive earnings surprise, which can lift the stock by 5–10% in the short term. Conversely, a slowdown in EV production can dampen the stock, as seen during the 2025 Q4 dip. Investors monitor automotive earnings releases for early signals of demand shifts. The current falling sentiment score of 66 suggests market caution, but the long‑term upside remains.
Industrial Automation
Industrial automation upgrades tend to lift ON’s industrial revenue, which historically drives a modest but steady share price lift. The industrial segment supplies sensors and analog ICs for factory automation and process control. Demand in this space is driven by the broader push toward Industry 4.0 and digital twins. ON’s high‑quality, low‑power solutions give it a competitive advantage over generic competitors. The segment’s growth has a smoothing effect on overall earnings volatility.
Industrial automation requires precision analog and mixed‑signal components for data acquisition and control loops. ON’s portfolio includes high‑speed ADCs, op‑amps, and signal‑processing ICs that are integral to modern manufacturing equipment. The company’s focus on low‑power consumption aligns with the energy‑efficiency goals of industrial customers. By offering integrated solutions, ON reduces the bill‑of‑materials complexity for OEMs. This strategic positioning supports recurring revenue streams from long‑term contracts.
Industrial revenue was $423 million in Q2 2026, up 1% sequentially and 4% year‑over‑year. The segment has delivered EPS beats in three of the last four quarters, underscoring its contribution to profitability. In 2025, ON’s industrial revenue grew 5% YoY, surpassing the semiconductor average of 3%. The company’s free‑cash‑flow margin expansion to 27% reflects efficient capital allocation in this segment. Forward guidance for Q3 suggests continued incremental growth, reinforcing investor confidence.
Power Management
Power‑management ICs are the backbone of ON’s Power Solutions, and rising energy‑efficiency mandates keep demand steady. The segment supplies battery management, voltage regulation, and power‑distribution solutions across consumer, automotive, and industrial markets. Regulatory pressure for lower power consumption drives OEMs to adopt higher‑efficiency chips. ON’s design for low‑quiescent current and high‑supply‑range performance differentiates it from generic alternatives. This focus supports higher margins and a stable revenue base.
Q2 2026 gross margin expanded to 39.3%, an 80‑basis‑point lift, reflecting the premium pricing of power‑management solutions. The free‑cash‑flow margin reached 27% in the quarter, indicating efficient use of capital. Automotive and industrial power‑management revenue contributed 40% of total revenue, showing diversification. The company’s earnings beat in four of the last seven quarters highlights the resilience of this segment. Analysts anticipate continued margin expansion as the industry adopts stricter efficiency standards.
Strong performance in the Power Solutions segment has historically translated into a 3–6% share price lift following earnings releases. A positive outlook on power‑management demand can lead to a quick re‑rating of the company’s valuation multiples. Conversely, any regulatory setback or supply‑chain bottleneck that limits component availability can compress the stock. The current falling sentiment trend suggests cautious market behavior, but the segment’s stable growth potential remains a key support. Watching quarterly guidance for power‑solutions revenue is a reliable early indicator of price direction.
Key insight: The single most important takeaway for investors is that ON Semiconductor’s valuation is anchored by the long‑term shift toward AI, automotive electrification, and industrial automation, while supply‑chain dynamics add a layer of short‑term risk. A sustained rise in AI and data‑center demand, coupled with steady automotive and industrial growth, will likely lift the stock further, provided capacity constraints are managed. Keeping an eye on quarterly guidance for power‑solutions revenue and supply‑chain updates will give the clearest signals of future price moves.
Risk Factors
ON Semiconductor’s risk landscape is dominated by the long‑term shift toward AI and data‑center markets, the cyclical nature of automotive demand, and the fragility of its supply‑chain and cost structure. These company‑specific factors can compress margins and revenue growth, while the short‑term earnings volatility reflects the sensitivity of the semiconductor cycle. The most material risks arise from demand swings, capacity constraints, and input cost pressures that can materialize over the next 12‑24 months.
- AI Demand Uncertainty
The company’s recent pivot to AI and data‑center products has split analyst sentiment, reflected in a wide target range of $85 to $150. A slowdown in AI hardware spending or a shift toward competitors could erode the projected revenue lift, trimming the 10‑15% margin expansion forecasted for 2026. Leading indicators include quarterly AI‑segment sales, factory utilization rates, and the pace of new AI‑chip orders. If AI demand stalls, the company could see a 5‑10% decline in revenue growth and a 2‑3% drop in gross margin within the next fiscal year. Monitoring AI‑specific revenue as a share of total sales will signal whether the market is still expanding or plateauing.
- Automotive Demand Volatility
Automotive revenue, which accounts for roughly 30% of ON’s top line, is highly sensitive to the global vehicle cycle and the transition to electric vehicles. A prolonged slowdown in new‑vehicle sales or a shift in OEMs toward alternative power‑train suppliers could reduce automotive revenue by 3‑5% in a stress scenario. The company’s Q4 2025 earnings miss underscores the vulnerability of this segment. Key warning signs are quarterly automotive inventory levels, OEM order books, and EV adoption rates. A sustained decline in automotive orders would likely compress revenue growth and pressure operating margins over the next 18 months.
- Supply‑Chain Capacity Risk
ON’s manufacturing footprint relies on a limited number of fabs and suppliers, making it susceptible to supply‑chain bottlenecks. Any disruption, whether from geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or component shortages, could curtail production and delay product deliveries, pushing revenue shortfalls of 2‑4% and margin erosion of 1‑2 percentage points. Factory utilization data and lead‑time metrics are early warning signals. If a major supply‑chain event occurs, the company could face a 6‑12 month lag before capacity is restored, impacting quarterly earnings.
- Cost‑Inflation Margin Risk
Rising raw‑material costs, particularly for silicon and specialty gases, threaten to squeeze ON’s gross margin, which expanded 80 basis points sequentially to 39.3% in Q2 2026. A 5‑10% increase in input prices could erode margins by 1‑2 percentage points, offsetting revenue gains from AI demand. The company’s cost‑control initiatives and pricing power are the primary buffers. Monitoring commodity price indices and the company’s cost‑allocation reports will reveal early signs of margin pressure. If input costs rise sharply, the company may need to delay or reduce capital expenditures, affecting future growth.
- Short‑Term Earnings Momentum Risk
The stock’s 1‑month return of -17.5% reflects heightened volatility following Q2 earnings, where revenue rose 6% sequentially but the market reacted to guidance ambiguity. A sudden downgrade in earnings expectations or a missed guidance could trigger a further 5‑10% decline in the next quarter. Earnings guidance, analyst revisions, and the company’s quarterly cash‑flow generation are key indicators. Immediate market sentiment will likely shift if the company fails to meet the projected Q3 revenue range of $1.65‑$1.75 billion. A sustained earnings miss could erode investor confidence and compress the valuation multiple.
Frequently Asked Questions About ON
How does ON's Intelligent Sensing segment contribute to revenue?
The Intelligent Sensing group supplies image sensors and processors that support autofocus and image stabilization, primarily for mobile devices. While the company’s recent earnings highlights focused on automotive and industrial revenue, the Intelligent Sensing segment remains a critical growth area as camera technology evolves. In Q2 2026, the segment’s contribution was part of the $1.604 billion total revenue, with automotive revenue at $781 million and industrial at $423 million. As demand for higher‑resolution sensors rises, ON’s product portfolio positions it to capture a share of this expanding market. Continued investment in R&D will be key to maintaining competitive differentiation.
Learn More
Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) Explained Learn how Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) reveal trend continuation and reversals - and how smart money traders use them with liquidity and imbalances.
Bar Chart Patterns: Complete Guide to Structure, Breakouts, Retests, and Reliability Master bar chart patterns from boundary definition to breakout confirmation. Learn frequency vs reliability across timeframes, pullbacks/throwbacks, measured moves, and the behavioral traps that create false pattern signals.
Moving Averages: Complete Guide to Trend Identification, Bands, Envelopes, and Breakout Channels Master moving averages from core smoothing mechanics to advanced volatility tools. Learn SMA vs EMA, crossover signals, whipsaws, envelopes, Bollinger/Keltner/STARC bands, Donchian breakouts, and how institutions confirm trends and filter false signals.
What Is ATR and How to Use It Learn how the Average True Range (ATR) measures volatility and helps you set smarter stop losses and position sizes.
What Are Bollinger Bands and How to Read Them Learn how Bollinger Bands measure volatility, identify breakouts, and highlight overextended price conditions.
What Are Order Blocks? Smart Money Order Block Guide Learn what bullish and bearish order blocks are, why smart money traders watch them, how to validate them, and how to use them with structure, liquidity, and fair value gaps.
