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MCHP·Microchip Technology Incorporated

$73.28
+2.49 (+3.52%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$73.16-0.12 (-0.16%)
High
$73.58
Open
$71.40
Market Cap
39.79B
52W High
$110.00
Low
$70.64
P. Close
$73.28
P/E
83.17
52W Low
$48.47
Fwd P/E
16.05
DailyIQ Est.
$113.96
Inst. Ownership
-
Short Interest
6.03%
Days to Cover
4.0
Technical Score (1D)
14
SELL
News Sentiment
65
BULLISH
The most recent development is the AnalogAI partnership, in which Microchip’s memBrain SAGE IP is being used for low‑power, real‑time AI inference on edge devices. This deal places MCHP directly in the high‑growth neuromorphic and edge‑AI segment, a space where competitors such as Texas Instruments and NXP already have a foothold. By adding this licensing revenue stream, MCHP can now tap into a market that has shown strong demand, as evidenced by its $42.6 million licensing income in Q1 FY27. The partnership is expected to diversify MCHP’s revenue mix beyond traditional analog products, potentially increasing its share of the emerging low‑power inference market. Investors will likely view MCHP as a more diversified player, reducing reliance on legacy analog solutions. Over the next 1–10 trading days, analysts will focus on how quickly AnalogAI can commercialize the memBrain SAGE IP and whether the partnership translates into tangible sales. Watch for any announcements of additional licensing agreements or early revenue figures from AnalogAI that could confirm the partnership’s financial impact. Also monitor any shifts in MCHP’s quarterly guidance that reflect the new AI‑edge revenue potential. Finally, keep an eye on broader AI‑edge market trends, as increased demand could amplify the benefits of this deal for MCHP’s future earnings.
Earnings Summary
Microchip Technology Incorporated is a global provider of embedded control solutions, specializing in smart, connected, and secure technologies that span automotive, industrial, and communications sectors, positioning it firmly within the semiconductor industry. In the most recent quarters, Microchip’s earnings showed a mixed trajectory: Q4 2024 EPS of $0.20 fell short of the $0.28 estimate while revenue reached $1.026 billion, and Q1 2025 EPS of $0.11 slightly exceeded the $0.104 estimate with revenue of $970.5 million; however, Q2 2025 EPS of $0.27 beat the $0.239 estimate and revenue climbed to $1.0755 billion, followed by Q3 2025 EPS of $0.35 beating the $0.334 estimate with revenue of $1.1404 billion. The pattern indicates a gradual acceleration in revenue growth and consistent EPS beats in the last three quarters, though the Q4 2024 miss highlights volatility. Historically, Microchip has maintained a YoY revenue growth trajectory, with Q4 2026 revenue of $1.3112 billion surpassing the $1.2887 billion estimate and EPS of $0.57 beating the $0.515 estimate, underscoring a trend of earnings outperformance relative to analyst expectations. The company’s recent news highlights a 13.2 % sequential rise in net sales and a 38 % YoY jump in Q1 2027, driven by data‑center revenue surges, and the launch of the Space CSAC‑SA65 atomic clock, signaling expansion into space and edge‑AI markets. These developments suggest that Microchip’s diversified product mix is reinforcing its growth momentum. Investors should watch for the next quarterly guidance to assess whether the upward revenue trend continues, monitor any supply‑chain constraints that could affect production, and track early adoption metrics for the new space‑grade timing and PolarFire FPGA products, as these will be key indicators of sustained earnings momentum.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.02$0.25$0.52$0.79$1.06Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'26Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$0.93 - -
Q4'26$0.52$0.57+10.6%
Q3'25$0.33$0.35+4.9%
Q2'25$0.24$0.27+13.2%
Q1'25$0.10$0.11+5.3%
Q4'24$0.28$0.20-28.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$870M$1.1B$1.3B$1.5B$1.7BQ4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'26Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$1.6B - -
Q4'26$1.3B$1.3B+1.7%
Q3'25 - $1.1B -
Q2'25 - $1.1B -
Q1'25 - $971M -
Q4'24 - $1.0B -

Market Data

MCHP Stock Snapshot

SELL14/100
$73.16$0.12 (0.2%)
Market cap
39.79B
P/E ratio
83.2
Day range
$70.64 – $73.58
News sentiment
65/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$108.64 (+48.5%)
Consensus
Buy · 35 analysts
52-week range+50.9% off low · -33.5% from high
$48.47$110.00
Price $73.16 DailyIQ Est. $113.96

Microchip Technology Incorporated is trading in the lower half of its 52-week range with momentum still pointing lower. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into MCHP?

RICH

At today's price, Microchip Technology Incorporated needs to grow free cash flow about 46.5% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 12.34% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 10.4% a year, so the market is asking for 36.1 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis MCHP looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
46.5%
Historical FCF CAGR
10.4%
Growth gap
+36.1 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
12.34%
Beta
1.74

Behaviour On Record

What MCHP's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
32.9% 54th pct
Below its peak
-30.1%
vs 200-day average
-6.7%
Up days (1y)
46%

Microchip Technology Incorporated is currently running 32.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MCHP's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 54th percentile close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 31.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MCHP is trading -30.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.7%, and the deepest was -47.9% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -6.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 20th percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year MCHP closed higher on 46% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, MCHP finished the month higher 5 of 13 times, with a median return of -1.1% and an average of -0.5%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +6.0% on average, its weakest March at -3.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MCHP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 194 of 3,268 sessions (5.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.4% and -7.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MCHP's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MCHP's sector?

Microchip Technology Incorporated sits in the Technology sector, currently ranked 1st of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading). Within its narrower Semiconductors industry group, MCHP ranks 2nd of 15 tracked industries, leading.

Sector rank
#1 of 11
Sector state
Leading
Sector rotation score
90
Industry rank
#2 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MCHP?

CallsPuts

For Microchip Technology Incorporated's nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 6 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.34), with at-the-money implied volatility around 46.1%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $68.77–$77.45.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.34
ATM implied volatility
46.1%
Total open interest
14,142
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±5.9% ($68.77–$77.45)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MCHP?

BMO Capital most recently initiated coverage on Microchip Technology Incorporated to Outperform on Aug 21, 2026 with a price target of $95. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
BMO CapitalOutperform
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Aug 21, 2026BMO CapitalInitiatedOutperform$95
Aug 17, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldReiteratedOverweight$125
Aug 7, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$130 → $120
Aug 7, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$113 → $95
Aug 7, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedHold$105 → $90
Aug 7, 2026RosenblattMaintainedBuy$120
Aug 3, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldReiteratedOverweight$125
Jul 20, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$95 → $88
Jul 13, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$105 → $90
May 13, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldReiteratedOverweight$125
May 11, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$80 → $105
May 8, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$115 → $130

MCHP Competitive Positioning

Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) is tracked alongside these names in Semiconductors on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.