DailyIQ
Last updated2 minutes ago

AMCR·Amcor plc

$41.91
-0.47 (-1.11%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$42.73+0.82 (+1.96%)
High
$42.73
Open
$42.12
Market Cap
19.40B
52W High
$50.94
Low
$41.81
P. Close
$41.91
P/E
17.54
52W Low
$36.25
Fwd P/E
9.67
DailyIQ Est.
$51.51
Inst. Ownership
56.7%
Short Interest
4.25%
Days to Cover
5.3
Technical Score (1D)
36
SELL
News Sentiment
67
BULLISH
Amcor’s latest announcement of a low‑carbon packaging partnership with Dow marks a significant shift toward sustainability, as the two firms will combine Amcor’s design and manufacturing expertise with Dow’s polyethylene portfolio and carbon‑footprint analytics to create packaging that meets performance standards while cutting Scope 3 emissions. This collaboration is expected to accelerate market uptake by providing clearer demand signals and reducing adoption risk, positioning Amcor as a leader in the growing ESG‑driven packaging segment. The partnership could broaden Amcor’s customer base and reinforce its ESG credentials, potentially influencing investor sentiment over the next 1–10 trading days. In parallel, Amcor’s 2026 outlook outlines a $650 million total cost‑saving target from synergy realization following its $10 billion acquisition. The company plans to consolidate operations, streamline supply chains, and leverage scale across its flexible film, rigid container, and specialty closure businesses to improve operating margins. While the savings are substantial, analysts view them as incremental upside rather than a transformative pivot, and the pace at which these efficiencies materialize will be a key factor for investors. The dual focus on sustainability and cost efficiency suggests Amcor is positioning itself for both short‑term margin improvement and long‑term competitive advantage. Watch for early reports of synergy milestones and any updates on the rollout of the low‑carbon packaging line, as these will provide clearer signals of how the partnership and integration plans translate into operational performance.
Earnings Summary
Amcor plc is a global packaging leader offering flexible and rigid packaging solutions across food, beverage, healthcare, and other sectors, positioning it within the consumer cyclical packaging & containers industry. In the most recent quarters, Amcor reported revenue of $3.241B in Q4 2024 and $3.333B in Q1 2025, followed by a sharp jump to $5.082B in Q2 2025 and $5.745B in Q3 2025, reflecting a strong revenue acceleration that outpaced prior periods. EPS, however, showed a mixed pattern: a modest beat in Q4 2024 (0.161 vs 0.1576 estimate) and a slight miss in Q1 2025 (0.18 vs 0.18237 estimate), followed by a decline to 0.20 in Q2 2025 against an estimate of 0.21555, and a rebound to 0.193 in Q3 2025 versus 0.18398 estimate. The company has thus delivered earnings beats in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with revenue growth consistently outpacing EPS growth. Historically, Amcor has maintained a YoY revenue growth trajectory that has been robust, with notable revenue increases each quarter, while EPS has fluctuated around analyst expectations, indicating a pattern of revenue expansion coupled with margin pressure. Recent news highlights the 64% surge in adjusted net income for the year to June, largely driven by the integration of Berry, which has bolstered profitability metrics and supports the company’s earnings outlook. The company’s new supply agreement with Tiptree to deliver 30% certified post‑consumer recycled plastic films aligns with regulatory shifts and could translate into measurable volume increases. Investors should watch for the next earnings release to assess whether the Berry integration gains translate into sustained cash‑flow growth, how the new PCR film supply impacts volume and margin, and any further adjustments to JPMorgan’s rating that could signal a shift in the perceived risk‑reward profile.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.02$0.36$0.70$1.05$1.39Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q3'26Q4'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$0.17 - -
Q4'26$1.04$1.23+18.7%
Q3'26$1.17$0.96-17.6%
Q3'25$0.18$0.19+4.9%
Q2'25$0.22$0.20-7.2%
Q1'25$0.18$0.18-1.3%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.9B$3.9B$4.9B$5.9B$6.9BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q3'26Q4'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$5.7B - -
Q4'26$6.2B$6.4B+3.7%
Q3'26$6.0B$5.9B-1.2%
Q3'25 - $5.7B -
Q2'25 - $5.1B -
Q1'25 - $3.3B -

Market Data

AMCR Stock Snapshot

HOLD36/100
$42.73+$0.82 (2.0%)
Market cap
19.40B
P/E ratio
17.5
Day range
$41.81 – $42.73
News sentiment
67/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$50.18 (+17.4%)
Consensus
Buy · 22 analysts
52-week range+17.9% off low · -16.1% from high
$36.25$50.94
Price $42.73 DailyIQ Est. $51.51

The setup on Amcor plc is patient: consolidation, not accumulation or distribution. In Consumer Cyclical, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into AMCR?

CHEAP

At today's price, Amcor plc needs to grow free cash flow about 4.9% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.79% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 8.3% a year, so the market is asking for 3.3 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis AMCR looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
4.9%
Historical FCF CAGR
8.3%
Growth gap
-3.3 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.79%
Beta
0.75

Behaviour On Record

What AMCR's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
23.5% 43rd pct
Below its peak
-37.9%
vs 200-day average
-2.2%
Up days (1y)
46%

Amcor plc is currently running 23.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AMCR's own 7 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 43rd percentile close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 24.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AMCR is trading -37.9% below its running peak. Across 6 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.9%, and the deepest was -46.3% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -2.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 44th percentile close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year AMCR closed higher on 46% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 8 years of records, AMCR finished the month higher 2 of 8 times, with a median return of -4.3% and an average of -4.4%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.5% on average, its weakest September at -4.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AMCR has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 106 of 1,828 sessions (5.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.1% and -8.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, AMCR moved an average of 1.5% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -0.2% and a largest of +3.4%.

All figures computed from 1,829 daily closes between 2019-06-11 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AMCR's own 7-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of AMCR's sector?

Amcor plc sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 10th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#10 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
10

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for AMCR?

CallsPuts

For Amcor plc's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 27 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 0.88), with at-the-money implied volatility around 31.3%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±8.1% move by that expiry — a range of about $39.06–$45.91.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
0.88
ATM implied volatility
31.3%
Total open interest
7,006
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±8.1% ($39.06–$45.91)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on AMCR?

JP Morgan most recently downgraded Amcor plc to Neutral on Aug 17, 2026 with a price target of $47 (from $44). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 2 downgrades, a net bearish lean.

Latest action
JP MorganNeutral
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
2
Net rating momentum
-2
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Aug 17, 2026JP MorganDowngradeOverweight → Neutral$44 → $47
Aug 14, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$47 → $52
Aug 14, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$43 → $44
Aug 11, 2026UBSInitiatedBuy$56
Jul 22, 2026JefferiesDowngradeBuy → Hold-
Jul 17, 2026BMO CapitalInitiatedOutperform → Market Perform$47
Jul 15, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$41 → $43
Jul 14, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$48 → $51
May 20, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$43 → $41
May 8, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$54 → $47
May 7, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$50 → $44
May 7, 2026Truist SecuritiesReiteratedBuy$50 → $51

AMCR Competitive Positioning

Amcor plc (AMCR) is tracked alongside these names in Packaging & Containers on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.