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Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
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SW·Smurfit Westrock Plc

$44.34
-1.14 (-2.51%)
After Hours
High
$45.39
Open
$45.20
Market Cap
23.86B
52W High
$52.65
Low
$44.18
P. Close
$44.34
P/E
48.01
52W Low
$32.72
Fwd P/E
13.33
DailyIQ Est.
$59.32
Inst. Ownership
47.4%
Short Interest
4.18%
Days to Cover
5.1
Technical Score (1D)
14
SELL
News Sentiment
28
BEARISH
Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) is trading in an oversold condition on the 1D timeframe, carrying 14 with bearish structure and RSI in neutral range territory. Sentiment at 28 is aligned with the chart, which means any bounce may need to come from exhaustion rather than improving headlines. A recovery through $46.22 would hint that a relief rally is forming; failure there keeps $41.77 in play. Capitulation-style selloffs like this often need a second test of $42.66 before a durable base forms - the first bounce tends to fail as trapped longs use the relief to exit. Patience through that second test, rather than chasing the initial bounce, has historically produced the better entries in setups with this kind of neutral range reading.
Earnings Summary
Smurfit WestRock plc is a global leader in paper‑based packaging solutions, manufacturing and distributing containerboard, corrugated containers and other packaging materials for food, beverage, e‑commerce and consumer goods markets across 40 countries. The company operates within the consumer cyclical sector, providing essential packaging to a broad customer base. In the most recent quarters, revenue grew from $7.539 billion in Q4 2024 to $7.656 billion in Q1 2025, a modest 1.6% increase, while EPS rose from $0.42 to $0.829, a 97% jump that beat estimates in both periods. However, Q2 2025 revenue accelerated to $7.940 billion and EPS fell to $0.509, missing estimates, and Q3 2025 revenue reached $8.003 billion with EPS at $0.58, again below expectations. The pattern shows revenue growth but EPS volatility, with a beat in Q1 2025 followed by misses in the next two quarters. Historically, the company has delivered YoY revenue growth of roughly 3–4% over the past four quarters, with EPS fluctuating around analyst forecasts; the recent trend of revenue gains despite EPS misses suggests pricing pressure and cost inflation. Recent news highlights a petition to the U.S. Department of Commerce for antidumping duties on pizza‑box imports, a regulatory development that could eventually strengthen pricing power but is unlikely to impact near‑term earnings. The earnings call also noted freight cost increases of $300 million worldwide, underscoring margin pressure, and a shift toward a deal‑centric growth strategy with potential acquisitions. Investors should watch for confirmation of margin recovery, updates on the acquisition pipeline, and any progress on freight cost absorption, as these factors will determine whether the modest target lifts translate into upside. Additionally, monitoring regulatory outcomes from the Commerce Department or USITC will help gauge potential risks to SW’s cost structure and pricing initiatives.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.27$0.40$0.53$0.65$0.78Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.61 - -
Q2'26$0.44$0.35-19.8%
Q1'26$0.55$0.33-39.8%
Q4'25$0.59$0.34-42.6%
Q3'25$0.72$0.58-19.8%
Q2'25$0.59$0.51-13.9%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$7.4B$7.7B$8.0B$8.3B$8.6BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$8.5B - -
Q2'26$8.2B$8.0B-1.5%
Q1'26$7.9B$7.7B-2.1%
Q4'25$7.7B$7.6B-1.1%
Q3'25 - $8.0B -
Q2'25 - $7.9B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

SW Stock Snapshot

SELL14/100
$44.33−$0.01 (0.0%)
Market cap
23.86B
P/E ratio
48.0
Day range
$44.18 – $45.39
News sentiment
28/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$56.84 (+28.2%)
Consensus
Buy · 29 analysts
52-week range+35.5% off low · -15.8% from high
$32.72$52.65
Price $44.33 DailyIQ Est. $59.32

SW's technical picture is under pressure, with momentum working against price. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Behaviour On Record

What SW's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
35.0% 37th pct
vs 200-day average
+4.4%
Up days (1y)
50%

Smurfit Westrock Plc is currently running 35.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against SW's own 2 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 37th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 38.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

Price sits +4.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 77th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year SW closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

Overnight risk is measurable too: SW has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 47 of 550 sessions (8.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.2% and -6.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, SW moved an average of 1.4% in the session after earnings, closing higher 3 of those 3 times, with a median move of +1.0% and a largest of +2.7%.

All figures computed from 551 daily closes between 2024-07-08 and 2026-09-16, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against SW's own 2-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of SW's sector?

Smurfit Westrock Plc sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 10th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#10 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
20

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for SW?

CallsPuts

For Smurfit Westrock Plc's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 0 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.13), with at-the-money implied volatility around 61.5%.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.13
ATM implied volatility
61.5%
Total open interest
7,432

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on SW?

Morgan Stanley most recently reiterated its rating on Smurfit Westrock Plc to Overweight on Aug 27, 2026 with a price target of $58 (from $57). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Morgan Stanley — Overweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Aug 27, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$57 → $58
Aug 4, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$56 → $57
Aug 4, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$52 → $56
Jul 31, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$71 → $68
Jul 30, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$56 → $60
Jul 30, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$55 → $57
Jul 30, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$52 → $55
Jul 28, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$65 → $71
Jul 17, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$53 → $56
Jul 15, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$50 → $55
Jul 9, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$51 → $56
Jul 9, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$62 → $65

SW Competitive Positioning

Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) is tracked alongside these names in Packaging & Containers on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

SW is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.