DailyIQ
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DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updatedUpdating…

SW·Smurfit Westrock Plc

$44.16
-0.35 (-0.79%)
High
$44.68
Open
$43.85
Market Cap
23.63B
52W High
$52.65
Low
$43.66
P. Close
$44.16
P/E
47.54
52W Low
$32.72
Fwd P/E
13.56
DailyIQ Est.
$55.80
Inst. Own.
45.5%
Short Interest
4.35%
Days to Cover
6.3
Div. Yield
3.05%
Last Ex-Div
Aug 14, 2026
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Oct 28, 2026tone -10.3 vs prior release · 46 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
60
BULLISH
News Sentiment
38
BEARISH
On Nov 4, Smurfit Westrock plc filed its Form 10‑Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the SEC. The filing, available on the SEC website and the company’s investor portal, included the standard financial statements, management discussion, and risk disclosures typical of a quarterly filing. No material changes or guidance updates were disclosed that would alter the company’s outlook. The release serves as a routine compliance update for shareholders and analysts.
LOW TARGET
$46 +4.2%
1 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$54 +22.8%
14 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$60 +35.9%
13 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$46.00 - $60.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
7/16/3/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$55.80 (+26.4%)
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Packaging & Containers
Exchange
NYQ
Country
Ireland
Website
smurfitwestrock.com
Symbol
SW
Description
Smurfit WestRock plc is a global leader in paper-based packaging solutions, providing a diverse range of products to a broad customer base. Its core business centers on the manufacturing and distribution of containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging materials. The company's offerings include various packaging types, such as consumer packaging, solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, serving key markets like food and beverage, e-commerce, and consumer goods. Operating in 40 countries, Smurfit WestRock provides essential packaging solutions, including products like folding cartons and corrugated boxes, to a wide variety of industries. Established in 1934 and headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, the company has a long history of providing crucial packaging to its customers.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Rasmussen Jorgen Buhl-
Award/Grant48 shares2026-09-10
Brown Carole Lynnette-
Award/Grant48 shares2026-09-10
BERNLOHR TIMOTHY J-
Award/Grant48 shares2026-09-10
Arnold Colleen F.-
Award/Grant343.768 shares2026-09-10
Harrison Suzan F.-
Award/Grant48 shares2026-09-10
View full insider trading history →
76/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
19.4%
Net Margin
2.2%
Revenue CAGR
32.2%
Current Ratio
1.48x
Debt / Equity
0.74x
Return on Equity
3.8%
View full financials →
Earnings Summary
In the most recent quarters, Q3 2026 EPS of $0.45 fell short of the $0.60 consensus and revenue of $8.16 billion missed the $8.27 billion forecast, while Q4 2025 EPS of $0.34 was well below the $0.59 estimate and revenue of $7.58 billion trailed the $7.66 billion target; however, Q1 2026 EPS of $0.33 beat the $0.55 estimate and revenue of $7.71 billion was slightly below the $7.88 billion estimate, indicating a mixed pattern of earnings beats and misses over the last four quarters. Historically, the company has shown a YoY revenue growth trend of roughly 2–3 % in recent years, with EPS growth lagging due to cost pressures; notable is the consistent revenue growth despite EPS misses, reflecting a resilient top line amid margin compression. Recent news highlights a $700 million freight and energy cost headwind that forced a cut in the 2026 EBITDA outlook to $4.7 billion and a downgrade of the price target by JP Morgan, underscoring investor concerns about the earnings outlook and competitive pressures.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.27$0.40$0.53$0.65$0.78Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$0.67 - -
Q3'26$0.61$0.45-25.9%
Q2'26$0.42$0.35-16.9%
Q1'26$0.55$0.33-39.8%
Q4'25$0.59$0.34-42.6%
Q3'25$0.72$0.58-19.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$7.4B$7.7B$8.0B$8.3B$8.7BQ3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$8.3B - -
Q3'26$8.5B$8.2B-4.1%
Q2'26$8.2B$8.0B-1.5%
Q1'26$7.9B$7.7B-2.1%
Q4'25$7.7B$7.6B-1.1%
Q3'25 - $8.0B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

SW Stock Snapshot

NEUTRAL60/100
$44.16−$0.35 (0.8%)
Market cap
23.63B
P/E ratio
47.5
Day range
$43.66 – $44.68
News sentiment
38/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$54.23 (+22.8%)
Consensus
Buy · 28 analysts
52-week range+35.0% off low · -16.1% from high
$32.72$52.65
Price $44.16 DailyIQ Est. $55.80

Neither side has the upper hand on SW right now, and its momentum ranks near the middle of DailyIQ's universe. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Behaviour On Record

What SW's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
35.6% 41st pct
vs 200-day average
+3.5%
Up days (1y)
52%

Smurfit Westrock Plc is currently running 35.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against SW's own 2 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 41st percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 37.9%.

Price sits +3.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 76th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year SW closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

Overnight risk is measurable too: SW has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 53 of 586 sessions (9.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.2% and -6.1%.

Across the last 4 dated reports on file, SW moved an average of 2.4% in the session after earnings, closing higher 4 of those 4 times, with a median move of +1.9% and a largest of +5.5%.

All figures computed from 587 daily closes between 2024-07-08 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against SW's own 2-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of SW's sector?

Smurfit Westrock Plc sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 5th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading).

Sector rank
#5 of 12
Sector state
Leading
Sector rotation score
82

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for SW?

CallsPuts

For Smurfit Westrock Plc's nearest expiry (2026-11-20, 14 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 1.05), with at-the-money implied volatility around 49.5%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±10.1% move by that expiry — a range of about $39.67–$48.59.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-20)
1.05
ATM implied volatility
49.5%
Total open interest
2,690
Expected move by 2026-11-20
±10.1% ($39.67–$48.59)

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect SW to earn?

Analysts expect Smurfit Westrock Plc to earn $1.47 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $3.97 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2028, from 3 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$0.51$0.22 to $0.615$8.00B5
Mar 2027$0.58$0.49 to $0.723$8.45B3
Jun 2027$0.93$0.83 to $1.032~$9.97B-
Sep 2027$0.87$0.83 to $0.902~$9.33B-
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$1.47$1.23 to $1.937$32.16B10
Dec 2027$3.30$2.70 to $3.8314$34.42B12
Dec 2028$3.97$3.89 to $4.013~$42.57B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on SW?

Barclays most recently reiterated its rating on Smurfit Westrock Plc to Overweight on Nov 3, 2026 with a price target of $55 (from $56). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Barclays: Overweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Nov 3, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$56 → $55
Nov 2, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$54 → $50
Oct 29, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$69 → $57
Oct 29, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$54 → $51
Oct 16, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$60 → $55
Oct 12, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$57 → $54
Oct 2, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$57 → $54
Sep 23, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$68 → $69
Aug 27, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$57 → $58
Aug 4, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$56 → $57
Aug 4, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$52 → $56
Jul 31, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$71 → $68

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Smurfit Westrock Plc's latest earnings release say?

Filed Oct 28, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Tone58.8/ 100-10.3 vs prior release
Hedging words1.34per 100 words+1.18 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 50–75

Most important lines

  1. 1

    We have, and are, implementing price increases to more than offset these costs, the full benefits of which we expect to realize into 2027.

    New this quarter
  2. 2

    Against what has been a challenging operating environment I am very proud of the efforts of all our people who have set the foundation for continued progress into 2027 and beyond.”

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    For example, for the full year 2026 we expect to absorb approximately $700 million of additional freight and energy costs alone, significantly more than anticipated.

    New this quarter

Scores describe the release's wording. They are not a forecast.

Read all 46 scored lines →

Peers & ETF holders

SW peers & ETF holders

Packaging & ContainersMarket cap · today

Top ETF holdersWeight

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about SW?

SW rose 4.2% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 26 and 64 from Oct 6 to Oct 26, then dropped to 29 on Oct 28.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 6 to Nov 6
$40$43$45Oct 6: tone 57Oct 7Oct 8Oct 9: tone 57Oct 12: tone 45Oct 13: tone 42Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16: tone 26Oct 19Oct 20Oct 21: tone 44Oct 22Oct 23Oct 26: tone 64Oct 27Oct 28: tone 29Oct 29: tone 33Oct 30: tone 50Nov 2: tone 25Nov 3: tone 44Nov 4: tone 42Nov 5Nov 6Oct 6News toneNov 6123
  1. Oct 28 -5.1%same day: Smurfit Westrock Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
  2. Oct 29 +5.5%same day: Smurfit Westrock (SW) Stock Slides After Q3 Results Expose Margin Strain
  3. Nov 4 +4.1%same day: DOJ subpoenas Smurfit Westrock over containerboard pricing
Latest stories naming Smurfit Westrock

Technical analysis

How strong is SW's momentum right now?

On the daily chart SW ranks at the 60th percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a neutral reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling SW?

85 of the 142 tracked managers added to SW in their latest 13F and 52 trimmed. Together they own 45.5% of the company, worth $11.2B. Vanguard Capital Management and State Street alone hold 11.7%.

85adding52trimming5unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of SW
  1. 1Vanguard Capital Management LLC6.41%
    $1.6B positionAdded 0.8% last quarter
  2. 2State Street Corp5.25%
    $1.3B positionAdded 11.1% last quarter
  3. 3Nuveen, LLC4.64%
    $1.1B positionAdded 0.9% last quarter
  4. 4Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC4.56%
    $1.1B positionAdded 0.2% last quarter
  5. 5Franklin Resources Inc (Franklin Templeton)2.52%
    $622.4M positionAdded 4.0% last quarter
  6. 6Ameriprise Financial Inc1.86%
    $460.2M positionAdded 15.8% last quarter
  7. 7Bank of New York Mellon Corp1.67%
    $393.8M positionTrimmed 9.8% last quarter
  8. 8Deutsche Bank AG1.28%
    $315.4M positionAdded 4.4% last quarter
  9. 9Orbis Allan Gray Ltd1.10%
    $272.1M positionTrimmed 57.3% last quarter
  10. 10Dimensional Fund Advisors LP1.05%
    $246.5M positionAdded 7.1% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading SW?

2 members of Congress disclosed 2 SW trades between Apr 1 and Nov 18, 2025: 1 buy and 1 sell, about $16.0K in estimated value.

BuysSellsMayJulSepNov
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K
Full trading history

Discover more

How has SW done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 6, SW returned +5.6%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 6 did better, led by ECL at +14.8%.

Change since May 6, through Nov 6
−40%−20%0%+20%+40%May 6JunJulAugSepOctNov 6ECL +14.8%SW +5.6%CRH −17.4%