Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Price, News, Analysis

Technical Score (1D)

SELL

News Sentiment

MIXED

The most immediate development is the 91 % five‑year gain that has prompted analysts to question whether Packaging Corp’s current price already reflects its earnings trajectory. The company’s focus on converting packaging operations into consistent profit and cash flow is under scrutiny, raising doubts that the premium is justified by future earnings growth. This valuation concern is likely to weigh on the stock in the next 1–10 trading days as investors reassess the earnings‑to‑price ratio against fair‑ratio benchmarks. The company’s scheduled third‑quarter 2026 earnings call on October 22, with results due after market close on October 21, provides the next data point that could confirm or refute the valuation narrative. Management’s commentary during the call will be critical for understanding whether the earnings conversion strategy is delivering the projected cash generation. Watch for any guidance on operating margins and capital allocation that could shift the earnings outlook. If the earnings release shows stronger-than‑expected cash flow, the premium may be justified; if not, a correction could follow. The market will also monitor any changes in the company’s cost structure or supply‑chain dynamics that could impact future profitability. Finally, keep an eye on broader packaging industry trends, such as raw material price swings and sustainability mandates, as they could influence PKG’s operating environment over the coming weeks.

PKG|Analyst Targets

LOW TARGET

$167 -28.3%

2 analysts

MEAN TARGET

$259 +11.1%

10 analysts

HIGH TARGET

$312 +34.0%

6 analysts

PRICE RANGE

$167.00 - $312.00

SB / B / H / S / SS

3/7/6/1/1

DAILYIQ EST.

$268.19 (+15.2%)

PKG|Company Info

Sector

Consumer Cyclical

Industry

Packaging & Containers

Exchange

NYQ

Country

United States

Website

packagingcorp.com

Symbol

PKG

Description

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a leading North American producer of containerboard and uncoated freesheet paper products. The company's core business is divided into two segments: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging segment specializes in manufacturing a diverse range of corrugated packaging solutions, including standard shipping containers, retail displays, and protective packaging, serving industries from food and beverage to industrial goods. PCA's Paper segment focuses on the production and sale of various paper grades, encompassing commodity and specialty papers used for communication and printing purposes. With a direct sales and marketing approach for both segments, PCA, established in 1867, provides essential packaging and paper solutions from its headquarters in Lake Forest, Illinois.

PKG|Insider Trading

Bought (1Y)

0 shares

Sold (1Y)

49,657 shares

$12.2M

Shirley Donald R.Exec. VP

Sell12,000 shares2026-08-20

Hassfurther Thomas APresident

Sell7,063 shares2026-08-07

Hassfurther Thomas APresident

Sell8,797 shares2026-08-05

Hassfurther Thomas APresident

Sell12,531 shares2026-08-03

KOWLZAN MARK WChairman & CEO

Sell9,266 shares2026-05-27

PKG|Fundamentals

Bullish

Verdict: Bullish

✓Revenue growing year over year

✓Positive net margin

✓Positive operating cash flow

Gross Margin

21.0%

Net Margin

8.6%

Revenue CAGR

8.2%

Current Ratio

3.17x

Debt / Equity

0.86x

Return on Equity

16.8%

PKG|Earnings Snapshot

Earnings Summary

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is a leading North American producer of containerboard and uncoated freesheet paper products, operating through Packaging and Paper segments that serve food, beverage, industrial and printing markets. In the consumer cyclical sector, PKG’s performance is closely tied to demand for corrugated packaging and paper grades. In the most recent two quarters, Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, PKG reported EPS of $2.32 and $2.40, respectively, both beating analyst expectations of $2.43 and $2.16, while revenue dipped slightly from $2.363 billion in Q3 2025 to $2.367 billion in Q2 2026, reflecting a modest acceleration in sales growth after a decline in Q4 2025. Over the prior two quarters, EPS rose from $2.73 in Q3 2025 to $2.48 in Q2 2025, and revenue climbed from $2.313 billion to $2.171 billion, indicating a deceleration in growth momentum. Historically, PKG has delivered YoY revenue growth in the mid‑20% range, with EPS generally staying above estimates in the last four quarters, though the most recent quarter saw a slight miss in EPS relative to the prior year. The company’s earnings pattern shows consistent revenue expansion even when EPS misses occur, suggesting a resilient top‑line. Recent news highlights a BofA price‑target cut to $260 from $280 amid concerns over margin compression and cost‑inflation, coupled with a federal judge allowing discovery in a containerboard price‑fixing lawsuit, which could introduce regulatory risk. These developments underscore the importance of monitoring PKG’s upcoming earnings guidance for updates on volume growth, margin performance, and the impact of the Wallula mill restructuring, as well as any progress on the litigation. Investors should watch for any cost‑control initiatives or changes in raw material pricing that could influence profitability, and keep an eye on the company’s dividend policy, which may constrain future payouts if earnings falter.

Read full report

EPS

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$2.91	-	-
Q2'26	$2.34	$2.35	+0.5%
Q1'26	$2.16	$2.40	+11.1%
Q4'25	$2.43	$2.32	-4.5%
Q3'25	$2.82	$2.73	-3.1%
Q2'25	$2.44	$2.48	+1.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$2.6B	-	-
Q2'26	$2.5B	$2.5B	-1.5%
Q1'26	$2.4B	$2.4B	-3.0%
Q4'25	$2.5B	$2.4B	-4.0%
Q3'25	-	$2.3B	-
Q2'25	-	$2.2B	-

Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context

→

PKG|Monthly Returns

Market Data

PKG Stock Snapshot

HOLD41/100

$234.50+$1.73 (0.7%)

Market cap: 20.99B
P/E ratio: 30.3
Day range: $231.33 – $236.80
News sentiment: 49/100 · Neutral
Analyst target: $258.50 (+10.2%)
Consensus: Buy · 18 analysts

52-week range+22.5% off low · -9.8% from high

$191.50$259.98

Price $234.50 DailyIQ Est. $268.19

PKG sits in the middle of its 52-week range with the technical picture unresolved. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into PKG?

RICH

At today's price, Packaging Corporation of America needs to grow free cash flow about 274.8% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 8.11% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 14.0% a year, so the market is asking for 260.8 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis PKG looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth: 274.8%
Historical FCF CAGR: 14.0%
Growth gap: +260.8 pts
Verdict: RICH
Discount rate (WACC): 8.11%
Beta: 0.76

Behaviour On Record

What PKG's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d): 22.5% 46th pct
Below its peak: -9.6%
vs 200-day average: +3.7%
Up days (1y): 49%

Packaging Corporation of America is currently running 22.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PKG's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 46th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 23.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

PKG is trading -9.6% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.4%, and the deepest was -39.8% in 2018. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +3.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 48th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year PKG closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, PKG finished the month higher 9 of 13 times, with a median return of +1.1% and an average of -1.4%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +3.9% on average, its weakest June at -1.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PKG has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 95 of 3,267 sessions (2.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.9% and -20.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, PKG moved an average of 3.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +3.6% and a largest of +5.4%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PKG's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of PKG's sector?

Packaging Corporation of America sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 10th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank: #10 of 11
Sector state: Improving
Sector rotation score: 10

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for PKG?

CallsPuts

For Packaging Corporation of America's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 27 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.21), with at-the-money implied volatility around 33.4%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±8.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $210.94–$251.96.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16): 0.21
ATM implied volatility: 33.4%
Total open interest: 617
Expected move by 2026-10-16: ±8.9% ($210.94–$251.96)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PKG?

B of A Securities most recently reiterated its rating on Packaging Corporation of America to Buy on Sep 11, 2026 with a price target of $260 (from $280). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 1 downgrade, a net bearish lean.

Latest action: B of A Securities — Buy
90-day upgrades: 0
90-day downgrades: 1
Net rating momentum: -1

Date	Firm	Action	Rating	Price target
Sep 11, 2026	B of A Securities	Maintained	Buy	$280 → $260
Aug 13, 2026	UBS	Maintained	Buy	$271 → $292
Jul 28, 2026	Citigroup	Maintained	Neutral	$241 → $254
Jul 28, 2026	JP Morgan	Maintained	Overweight	$271 → $312
Jul 25, 2026	UBS	Maintained	Buy	$272 → $271
Jul 24, 2026	JP Morgan	Maintained	Overweight	$269 → $271
Jul 15, 2026	Truist Securities	Maintained	Buy	$258 → $270
Jul 14, 2026	B of A Securities	Maintained	Buy	$242 → $263
Jul 9, 2026	Citigroup	Maintained	Neutral	$229 → $241
Jul 9, 2026	JP Morgan	Maintained	Overweight	$246 → $269
Jul 9, 2026	Wells Fargo	Downgrade	Overweight → Equal-Weight	$245 → $246
May 20, 2026	UBS	Upgrade	Neutral → Buy	$232 → $248

PKG Competitive Positioning

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is tracked alongside these names in Packaging & Containers on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

PKGyou're herePackaging Corporation of America$21.0B+0.74%
SWSmurfit Westrock Plc$23.2B-0.02%
AMCRAmcor plc$19.4B+1.96%
IPInternational Paper Company$18.8B+0.64%
BALLBall Corporation$16.1B+0.02%
AVYAvery Dennison Corporation$12.8B+0.33%

Held by These ETFs

PKG is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

49/100

Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive

MIXED

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles

What did this article say?

Packaging Corp of America (PKG) has delivered a 12.23% average annual return over the past two decades, outpacing the broader market by 3.14% on an annualized basis. The long‑term performance underscores the company’s resilient business model and consistent demand for its packaging solutions. Investors who held PKG shares for 20 years would have seen a substantial compounding gain, highlighting the stock’s attractiveness for long‑term holders. The data suggests continued strength in the packaging sector and PKG’s ability to generate steady returns.

What did this article say?

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) will appear at the Jefferies Global Industrials Conference on September 10, 2026, followed by its third‑quarter earnings release and a late‑October conference call. The company’s share price has cooled slightly in the past month, but its year‑to‑date performance remains solid. Investors are watching the conference to gauge whether PKG can lift its growth expectations and address risk concerns. The upcoming earnings call will provide further clarity on operating margins and capital allocation plans.

What did this article say?

Packaging Corporation of America’s stock has surged 91% over five years, but analysts question whether the current price reflects the company’s earnings trajectory. The firm’s focus on converting packaging operations into consistent profit and cash generation is under scrutiny to determine if earnings growth can sustain the premium. Investors are weighing whether the share price already incorporates future earnings potential or if a correction is likely. The market remains cautious, with the stock trading near a historical high relative to earnings multiples.

What did this article say?

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) will hold a conference call on October 22, 2026, to discuss third‑quarter 2026 operating results, which will be released after market close on October 21. The call, led by CEO Mark Kowlzan, provides investors with an opportunity to review earnings details and management commentary. The announcement signals PKG’s intent to maintain transparency and engage analysts ahead of the earnings release.

What did this article say?

UBS has added Packaging Corp. of America (PKG) to a list of ten industrial stocks it expects to benefit from a resurgent capital‑spending cycle. The bank cites improving inventory trends, stronger operating cash flow outside tech, and a broader manufacturing rebound as key drivers. PKG’s inclusion signals confidence in its positioning within the packaging and manufacturing sector, though the upside is not deemed transformative. Traders should monitor the bank’s price target revisions and any subsequent earnings guidance for confirmation of the bullish outlook.

What did this article say?

Packaging Corp of America (PKG) has declared a $1.5 per share dividend, payable on October 15, 2026, with an ex‑dividend date of September 15, 2026. The payout reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders and aligns with its historical dividend growth trajectory. While the dividend enhances PKG’s income profile, it does not signal a shift in earnings or operational outlook. Investors should monitor the company’s cash flow generation and any guidance updates that could affect future dividend sustainability.

What did this article say?

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) released a slide deck for its appearance at the Jefferies Global Industrials Conference on September 12, 2026. The presentation contains no new financial guidance, operational updates, or strategic initiatives beyond routine corporate information. As a result, the release offers no material impact on PKG’s outlook or valuation.

What did this article say?

BofA Securities has reduced its price target for Packaging Corp. of America (PKG) from $280 to $260 while keeping a buy rating. The downgrade reflects concerns over PKG’s earnings outlook and competitive pressures in the packaging industry. The firm cites weaker margin expectations and potential cost inflation as key factors behind the cut. This move is a confirmed material downside for PKG, likely to influence investor sentiment and trading activity. Market participants should watch for subsequent earnings guidance and any cost‑control initiatives PKG may announce.

What did this article say?

B of A Securities analyst George Staphos has downgraded Packaging Corp of America (PKG) to a Buy rating while trimming the price target from $280 to $260. The move reflects concerns over PKG’s recent earnings miss and a softer demand outlook for packaging solutions. The downgrade signals that the market may reassess PKG’s valuation in light of weaker growth prospects and competitive pressures.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

NEUTRAL

Technical indicators reflect the latest computed signal mix for this timeframe.

Unlock full technicals

Create a free account to access more indicators and deeper timeframe data.

Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership

2 tracked managers · $3.88M combined position · 0 adding, 2 trimming, 0 unchanged (latest 13F filings)

Manager	Trend	Shares Held	% of Co.	Position Value	Filed
Marshall Wace, LLP	▼ Sell	12,565	0.01%	$2.99M	2026-08-13
UBS O'Connor (UBS Asset Management)	▼ Sell	4,290	0.00%	$884.7K	2026-02-13

Q2 2026 flow:0 sh bought ($0)23.4K sh sold ($5.59M)net -23.4K sh (−$5.59M)

Congressional Trading Activity

12 disclosed trades · ~$163.0K est. traded value · 8 buys, 4 sells

Member	Chamber	State	Type	Amount	Traded	Filed
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▼ Sell	$50K - $100K	2026-08-25	2026-09-09
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2026-05-06	2026-06-05
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2026-04-29	2026-05-06
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2026-04-24	2026-05-06
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2026-03-20	2026-04-06
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2026-03-17	2026-04-06
Julie Johnson	House	TX32	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-12-18	2026-01-15
Julie Johnson	House	TX32	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-11-13	2025-12-11
Julie Johnson	House	TX32	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-08-14	2025-09-11
Julie Johnson	House	TX32	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-08-04	2025-09-11
Julie Johnson	House	TX32	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-07-25	2025-08-14
Julie Johnson	House	TX32	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-07-22	2025-08-14

PKG·Packaging Corporation of America

EPS

Revenue

PKG Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into PKG?

What PKG's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of PKG's sector?

What is the options market pricing for PKG?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PKG?

PKG Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Market Status

Recently Viewed

Portfolio

Email Alerts

Portfolio News

Economic Events

Earnings Events

Economic News

PKG·Packaging Corporation of America

EPS

Revenue

PKG Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into PKG?

What PKG's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of PKG's sector?

What is the options market pricing for PKG?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PKG?

PKG Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

Market Status

Recently Viewed

Portfolio

Email Alerts

Portfolio News

Economic Events

Earnings Events

Economic News