PKG·Packaging Corporation of America
PKG|Analyst Targets
PKG|Company Info
PKG|Insider Trading
PKG|Fundamentals
PKG|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $2.84 | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $2.95 | $3.04 | +3.2% |
| Q2'26 | $2.31 | $2.35 | +1.6% |
| Q1'26 | $2.16 | $2.40 | +11.1% |
| Q4'25 | $2.43 | $2.32 | -4.5% |
| Q3'25 | $2.82 | $2.73 | -3.1% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $2.6B | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $2.6B | $2.6B | -1.4% |
| Q2'26 | $2.5B | $2.5B | -1.5% |
| Q1'26 | $2.4B | $2.4B | -3.0% |
| Q4'25 | $2.5B | $2.4B | -4.0% |
| Q3'25 | - | $2.3B | - |
PKG|Monthly Returns
Market Data
PKG Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 22.17B
- P/E ratio
- 30.5
- Day range
- $242.30 – $250.96
- News sentiment
- 57/100 · Neutral
- Analyst target
- $269.22 (+7.8%)
- Consensus
- Buy · 17 analysts
PKG sits in the upper part of its 52-week range with the technical picture unresolved. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into PKG?
At today's price, Packaging Corporation of America needs to grow free cash flow about 223.9% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 7.61% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 3.0% a year, so the market is asking for 221.0 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis PKG looks priced above what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- 223.9%
- Growth trend
- 3.0%
- Growth gap
- +221.0 pts
- Verdict
- RICH
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 7.61%
- Beta
- 0.76
Behaviour On Record
What PKG's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 23.0% 50th pct
- Below its peak
- 0.0%
- vs 200-day average
- +12.9%
- Up days (1y)
- 50%
Packaging Corporation of America is currently running 23.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PKG's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 50th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 23.0%.
PKG is at its running peak. Across 13 full years on file its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -21.4%, with the deepest at -39.8% in 2018.
Price sits +12.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 75th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year PKG closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.
On November specifically: over 13 years of records, PKG finished the month higher 11 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.5% and an average of +4.1%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.1% on average, its weakest September at -1.5%.
Overnight risk is measurable too: PKG has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 95 of 3,267 sessions (2.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.9% and -20.6%.
Across the last 4 dated reports on file, PKG moved an average of 3.4% in the session after earnings, closing higher 3 of those 4 times, with a median move of +3.9% and a largest of +5.4%.
All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-04, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PKG's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of PKG's sector?
Packaging Corporation of America sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 5th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading).
- Sector rank
- #5 of 12
- Sector state
- Leading
- Sector rotation score
- 91
Analyst Consensus Estimates
What do analysts expect PKG to earn?
Analysts expect Packaging Corporation of America to earn $10.61 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $15.69 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2028, from 4 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.
Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PKG?
Citigroup most recently reiterated its rating on Packaging Corporation of America to Neutral on Oct 26, 2026 with a price target of $262 (from $253). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.
- Latest action
- Citigroup: Neutral
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 0
- Net rating momentum
- 0
Earnings Release, Scored
What did Packaging Corporation of America's latest earnings release say?
Most important lines
- 1
The acquired Greif operations generated earnings of $.13 in the third quarter of 2026 compared to a loss of ($.11) in the third quarter of 2025.
New this quarter - 2
Shipments per day are expected to be at or around last year’s fourth quarter level with two fewer shipping days than the third quarter and total shipments are expected to be higher than the third quarter.
New this quarter - 3
The higher earnings in the legacy business were driven by favorable price and mix in the Packaging segment $.79, favorable production and sales volume in the Packaging segment, including the benefit of a higher volume of containerboard supplied by the legacy mills to the acquired Greif operations $.12, favorable price and mix in the Paper segment $.05 and a lower share count $.02.
New this quarter
Peers & ETF holders
PKG peers & ETF holders
Packaging & ContainersMarket cap · today
News & sentiment
What is the news saying about PKG?
PKG rose 8.7% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 15 and 98 from Oct 7 to Oct 19, then dropped to 42 on Oct 20.
- Oct 22 +4.2%same day: Packaging Corporation of America Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
- Oct 26 +2.6%same day: Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Packaging Corp of America, Raises Price Target to $262
- Nov 5 -4.0%
Technical analysis
How strong is PKG's momentum right now?
On the daily chart PKG ranks at the 62nd percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a neutral reading.
Institutional ownership
Are big funds buying or selling PKG?
85 of the 187 tracked managers added to PKG in their latest 13F and 97 trimmed. Together they own 79.6% of the company, worth $16.8B. BlackRock and Vanguard Capital Management alone hold 15.2%.
- 1BlackRock, Inc.8.69%$1.8B positionAdded 0.1% last quarter
- $1.4B positionAdded 0.0% last quarter
- 3State Street Corp5.20%$1.1B positionAdded 8.7% last quarter
- $1.0B positionAdded 0.4% last quarter
- 5JPMorgan Chase & Co4.18%$882.4M positionAdded 8.3% last quarter
- $711.1M positionTrimmed 1.2% last quarter
- $660.7M positionTrimmed 3.0% last quarter
- $593.4M positionAdded 0.6% last quarter
- 9Royal Bank of Canada2.52%$532.8M positionTrimmed 3.7% last quarter
- $479.3M positionTrimmed 2.7% last quarter
Congressional trading
Is Congress trading PKG?
3 members of Congress disclosed 13 PKG trades between Jul 23, 2014 and Aug 25, 2026: 8 buys and 5 sells, about $171.0K in estimated value.
What stands out
Click one to highlight its trades in the chartDiscover more
How has PKG done against its peers?
Over the six months to Nov 6, PKG returned +10.1%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 3 did better, led by ECL at +14.1%.
- 1ECLEcolab Inc.up 14.1%+4.1 pts
- 2BALLBall Corporationup 11.7%+1.6 pts
- 3AMCRAmcor plcup 11.6%+1.5 pts
- 4PKGThis stockup 10.1%
- 5SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Companyup 6.3%−3.8 pts
- 6SWSmurfit Westrock Plcup 5.5%−4.6 pts
- 7NEMNewmont Corporationup 4.9%−5.2 pts
- 8LINLinde plcup 2.3%−7.8 pts
- 16CRHCRH PLCdown 17.5%−27.6 pts