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PKG·Packaging Corporation of America

$249.66
+0.86 (+0.35%)
After Hours
High
$250.96
Open
$245.71
Market Cap
22.17B
52W High
$262.59
Low
$242.30
P. Close
$249.66
P/E
30.49
52W Low
$191.50
Fwd P/E
17.49
DailyIQ Est.
$280.54
Inst. Own.
79.7%
Short Interest
3.57%
Days to Cover
6.4
Div. Yield
2.21%
Next Ex-Div
~Dec 16
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Oct 21, 2026New outlook issued · tone +0.2 vs prior release · 46 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
62
BULLISH
News Sentiment
57
BULLISH
On Nov 3, Zacks released an analysis of Packaging Corp. (PKG) noting a Momentum Style Score of B and a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). The report highlighted that PKG’s recent price movement and earnings estimate revisions contributed to the momentum rating. It suggested that the stock’s upward trend could continue, providing a mild tailwind for investors. No material adverse events or guidance changes were mentioned, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook. The analysis implied potential continuation of the upward trend without any material downside risk. The commentary emphasized that PKG’s recent performance and earnings revisions were key factors in the favorable investment view.
LOW TARGET
$170 -31.9%
1 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$269 +7.8%
10 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$322 +28.9%
6 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$170.00 - $322.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
3/7/5/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$280.54 (+12.4%)
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Packaging & Containers
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Symbol
PKG
Description
Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a leading North American producer of containerboard and uncoated freesheet paper products. The company's core business is divided into two segments: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging segment specializes in manufacturing a diverse range of corrugated packaging solutions, including standard shipping containers, retail displays, and protective packaging, serving industries from food and beverage to industrial goods. PCA's Paper segment focuses on the production and sale of various paper grades, encompassing commodity and specialty papers used for communication and printing purposes. With a direct sales and marketing approach for both segments, PCA, established in 1867, provides essential packaging and paper solutions from its headquarters in Lake Forest, Illinois.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
49,657 shares
$12.2M
Shirley Donald R.Exec. VP
Sell12,000 shares2026-08-20
Hassfurther Thomas APresident
Sell7,063 shares2026-08-07
Hassfurther Thomas APresident
Sell8,797 shares2026-08-05
Hassfurther Thomas APresident
Sell12,531 shares2026-08-03
KOWLZAN MARK WChairman & CEO
Sell9,266 shares2026-05-27
69/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
21.0%
Net Margin
8.6%
Revenue CAGR
8.2%
Current Ratio
3.17x
Debt / Equity
0.86x
Return on Equity
16.8%
Earnings Summary
In the most recent two quarters, PKG reported Q3 2026 earnings of $3.04 per share, beating the $2.9468 estimate, and revenue of $2.6017 billion versus an estimate of $2.6390 billion, indicating a slight revenue shortfall but strong profitability. The preceding quarter, Q2 2026, saw EPS of $2.35 beating the $2.3125 estimate, with revenue of $2.4899 billion against a $2.5267 billion estimate, again reflecting a modest revenue miss but solid earnings. Over the past four quarters, PKG has shown a consistent pattern of EPS beats, with revenue growth fluctuating between 5‑8 % YoY, and the company has maintained a pricing‑first strategy to protect margins amid market softness. Historically, PKG has delivered steady EPS growth YoY, with notable synergy gains from the Greif integration adding $0.24 per share in incremental earnings, as highlighted in the Q3 2026 earnings release. Recent news indicates that the company’s third‑quarter earnings surpassed expectations, driven by margin expansion and successful integration of Greif’s packaging business, while analysts have cautioned about weaker sector‑average revenue growth and declining operating margins.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$2.03$2.31$2.60$2.89$3.17Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$2.84 - -
Q3'26$2.95$3.04+3.2%
Q2'26$2.31$2.35+1.6%
Q1'26$2.16$2.40+11.1%
Q4'25$2.43$2.32-4.5%
Q3'25$2.82$2.73-3.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.3B$2.4B$2.5B$2.6B$2.7BQ3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$2.6B - -
Q3'26$2.6B$2.6B-1.4%
Q2'26$2.5B$2.5B-1.5%
Q1'26$2.4B$2.4B-3.0%
Q4'25$2.5B$2.4B-4.0%
Q3'25 - $2.3B -

Market Data

PKG Stock Snapshot

NEUTRAL62/100
$249.70+$0.04 (0.0%)
Market cap
22.17B
P/E ratio
30.5
Day range
$242.30 – $250.96
News sentiment
57/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$269.22 (+7.8%)
Consensus
Buy · 17 analysts
52-week range+30.4% off low · -4.9% from high
$191.50$262.59
Price $249.70 DailyIQ Est. $280.54

PKG sits in the upper part of its 52-week range with the technical picture unresolved. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into PKG?

RICH

At today's price, Packaging Corporation of America needs to grow free cash flow about 223.9% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 7.61% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 3.0% a year, so the market is asking for 221.0 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis PKG looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
223.9%
Growth trend
3.0%
Growth gap
+221.0 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
7.61%
Beta
0.76

Behaviour On Record

What PKG's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
23.0% 50th pct
Below its peak
0.0%
vs 200-day average
+12.9%
Up days (1y)
50%

Packaging Corporation of America is currently running 23.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PKG's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 50th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 23.0%.

PKG is at its running peak. Across 13 full years on file its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -21.4%, with the deepest at -39.8% in 2018.

Price sits +12.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 75th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year PKG closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On November specifically: over 13 years of records, PKG finished the month higher 11 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.5% and an average of +4.1%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.1% on average, its weakest September at -1.5%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PKG has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 95 of 3,267 sessions (2.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.9% and -20.6%.

Across the last 4 dated reports on file, PKG moved an average of 3.4% in the session after earnings, closing higher 3 of those 4 times, with a median move of +3.9% and a largest of +5.4%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-04, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PKG's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of PKG's sector?

Packaging Corporation of America sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 5th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading).

Sector rank
#5 of 12
Sector state
Leading
Sector rotation score
91

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for PKG?

CallsPuts

For Packaging Corporation of America's nearest expiry (2026-11-20, 14 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.21), with at-the-money implied volatility around 38.1%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±6.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $229.53–$263.65.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-20)
0.21
ATM implied volatility
38.1%
Total open interest
416
Expected move by 2026-11-20
±6.9% ($229.53–$263.65)

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect PKG to earn?

Analysts expect Packaging Corporation of America to earn $10.61 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $15.69 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2028, from 4 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$2.82$2.80 to $2.848$2.61B7
Mar 2027$3.13$3.00 to $3.434$2.62B4
Jun 2027$3.35$2.82 to $4.214~$2.67B-
Sep 2027$3.74$3.12 to $4.594~$2.99B-
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$10.61$10.59 to $10.678$10.09B9
Dec 2027$14.23$12.45 to $16.799$10.98B9
Dec 2028$15.69$13.94 to $18.964~$12.52B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PKG?

Citigroup most recently reiterated its rating on Packaging Corporation of America to Neutral on Oct 26, 2026 with a price target of $262 (from $253). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Citigroup: Neutral
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 26, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$253 → $262
Oct 23, 2026Truist SecuritiesReiteratedBuy$280 → $294
Oct 23, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$320 → $322
Oct 12, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$270 → $280
Oct 7, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$246 → $245
Oct 5, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$292 → $289
Oct 2, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$254 → $253
Sep 23, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$312 → $320
Sep 11, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$280 → $260
Aug 13, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$271 → $292
Jul 28, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$241 → $254
Jul 28, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$271 → $312

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Packaging Corporation of America's latest earnings release say?

Filed Oct 21, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

New outlook issued
Tone58.4/ 100+0.2 vs prior release
Hedging words0.27per 100 words-0.10 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 50–71

Most important lines

  1. 1

    The acquired Greif operations generated earnings of $.13 in the third quarter of 2026 compared to a loss of ($.11) in the third quarter of 2025.

    New this quarter
  2. 2

    Shipments per day are expected to be at or around last year’s fourth quarter level with two fewer shipping days than the third quarter and total shipments are expected to be higher than the third quarter.

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    The higher earnings in the legacy business were driven by favorable price and mix in the Packaging segment $.79, favorable production and sales volume in the Packaging segment, including the benefit of a higher volume of containerboard supplied by the legacy mills to the acquired Greif operations $.12, favorable price and mix in the Paper segment $.05 and a lower share count $.02.

    New this quarter

Peers & ETF holders

PKG peers & ETF holders

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about PKG?

PKG rose 8.7% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 15 and 98 from Oct 7 to Oct 19, then dropped to 42 on Oct 20.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 6 to Nov 6
$240$260Oct 6Oct 7: tone 78Oct 8Oct 9Oct 12: tone 86Oct 13: tone 15Oct 14: tone 49Oct 15Oct 16: tone 81Oct 19: tone 98Oct 20: tone 42Oct 21: tone 73Oct 22: tone 65Oct 23: tone 72Oct 26: tone 49Oct 27Oct 28: tone 50Oct 29: tone 50Oct 30: tone 50Nov 2: tone 50Nov 3: tone 52Nov 4: tone 25Nov 5: tone 50Nov 6Oct 6News toneNov 6123
  1. Oct 22 +4.2%same day: Packaging Corporation of America Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
  2. Oct 26 +2.6%same day: Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Packaging Corp of America, Raises Price Target to $262
  3. Nov 5 -4.0%

Technical analysis

How strong is PKG's momentum right now?

On the daily chart PKG ranks at the 62nd percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a neutral reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling PKG?

85 of the 187 tracked managers added to PKG in their latest 13F and 97 trimmed. Together they own 79.6% of the company, worth $16.8B. BlackRock and Vanguard Capital Management alone hold 15.2%.

85adding97trimming5unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of PKG
  1. $1.8B positionAdded 0.1% last quarter
  2. $1.4B positionAdded 0.0% last quarter
  3. $1.1B positionAdded 8.7% last quarter
  4. $1.0B positionAdded 0.4% last quarter
  5. $882.4M positionAdded 8.3% last quarter
  6. $711.1M positionTrimmed 1.2% last quarter
  7. $660.7M positionTrimmed 3.0% last quarter
  8. $593.4M positionAdded 0.6% last quarter
  9. $532.8M positionTrimmed 3.7% last quarter
  10. $479.3M positionTrimmed 2.7% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading PKG?

3 members of Congress disclosed 13 PKG trades between Jul 23, 2014 and Aug 25, 2026: 8 buys and 5 sells, about $171.0K in estimated value.

BuysSells201620182020202220242026
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

What stands out

Click one to highlight its trades in the chart

Discover more

How has PKG done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 6, PKG returned +10.1%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 3 did better, led by ECL at +14.1%.

Change since May 6, through Nov 6
−40%−20%0%+20%+40%May 6JunJulAugSepOctNov 6ECL +14.1%PKG +10.1%CRH −17.5%