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ARM·Arm Holdings plc

$241.49
+2.48 (+1.04%)
High
$253.16
Open
$241.63
Market Cap
271.46B
52W High
$452.70
Low
$238.16
P. Close
$241.49
P/E
260.02
52W Low
$90.50
Fwd P/E
78.38
DailyIQ Est.
$305.60
Inst. Ownership
7.0%
Short Interest
1.50%
Days to Cover
4.4
Technical Score (1D)
27
SELL
News Sentiment
38
BEARISH
Arm Holdings shares fell 8 % in the last hour as the broader AI and chip pullback, triggered by high‑profile leaders calling for a slowdown in development, rippled through the sector. The decline has pushed the stock 20 % below analyst targets, raising doubts about whether the current valuation still offers a margin of safety. The market’s reaction reflects concerns that future capital‑spending on AI infrastructure may be more restrained than the recent rally suggested. At the same time, analysts note that Arm’s architecture remains the backbone of nearly every hyperscaler’s custom CPU program, and royalty checks are expanding each quarter. The company’s high forward multiple (about 120×) leaves room for upside if AI demand continues to accelerate, but the recent pullback tempers that optimism. For the next 1–10 trading days, the key question is whether the sector‑wide slowdown will persist or if AI spending will rebound. Watch for any signs of renewed capital allocation from hyperscalers, as that would lift Arm’s royalty revenue trajectory. Also monitor any further commentary from AI leaders or regulatory developments that could influence chip‑sector investment.
Earnings Summary
Arm Holdings is a leading designer and licensor of CPU technology, providing core IP for the semiconductor industry across automotive, computing, consumer electronics, and IoT markets, and operates globally as a subsidiary of SoftBank. In Q1 2025 the company reported EPS of $0.55 versus an estimate of $0.52362 and revenue of $1.241B, while in Q4 2026 EPS rose to $0.60 against an estimate of $0.588 and revenue reached $1.49B, slightly above the $1.486B estimate; Q1 2027 EPS of $0.45 beat the $0.4038 estimate and revenue of $1.289B exceeded the $1.274B estimate, indicating a modest acceleration in both earnings and top line. The company has consistently outperformed analyst expectations in the last four quarters, with EPS beats in each period and revenue growth that has remained positive, suggesting a stable licensing revenue stream. Historically, Arm has shown a year‑over‑year revenue growth trajectory of roughly 10‑15% per quarter, with EPS growth slightly lagging but still positive; the pattern of revenue beats despite occasional EPS misses underscores the resilience of its royalty‑based model. Recent news highlights a sector‑wide pullback in AI and chip demand, causing an 8% intraday decline in Arm shares and raising concerns about future capital spending; however, analysts note that Arm’s architecture remains integral to hyperscalers’ custom CPUs and royalty checks are expanding each quarter, implying potential upside if AI spending rebounds. Investors should watch for signs of renewed hyperscaler investment in custom silicon, any changes in licensing terms or new partnerships, and macro‑economic factors that could influence semiconductor spending, as these will directly impact Arm’s royalty revenue trajectory in the next earnings cycle.}}

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.37$0.44$0.50$0.57$0.63Q1'25Q4'26Q1'27Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$0.47 - -
Q1'27$0.40$0.45+11.4%
Q4'26$0.59$0.60+2.0%
Q1'25$0.52$0.55+5.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.2B$1.3B$1.4B$1.4B$1.5BQ1'25Q4'26Q1'27Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$1.4B - -
Q1'27$1.3B$1.3B+1.2%
Q4'26$1.5B$1.5B+0.3%
Q1'25 - $1.2B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

ARM Stock Snapshot

SELL27/100
$241.49+$2.48 (1.0%)
Market cap
271.46B
P/E ratio
260.0
Day range
$238.16 – $253.16
News sentiment
38/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$289.20 (+19.8%)
Consensus
Buy · 45 analysts
52-week range+166.8% off low · -46.7% from high
$90.50$452.70
Price $241.49 DailyIQ Est. $305.60

ARM's technical picture is under pressure, with momentum working against price. Positioning shifts among large allocators, not retail flow, set the tone for a name this size.

Behaviour On Record

What ARM's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
76.3% 71st pct
vs 200-day average
+18.9%
Up days (1y)
51%

Arm Holdings plc is currently running 76.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ARM's own 3 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 71st percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 63.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

Price sits +18.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 69th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year ARM closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ARM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 73 of 753 sessions (9.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.5% and -8.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 754 daily closes between 2023-09-14 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ARM's own 3-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of ARM's sector?

Arm Holdings plc sits in the Technology sector, currently ranked 6th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging). Within its narrower Semiconductors industry group, ARM ranks 13th of 15 tracked industries, lagging.

Sector rank
#6 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
50
Industry rank
#13 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for ARM?

CallsPuts

For Arm Holdings plc's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 0.88), with at-the-money implied volatility around 71.6%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±6.2% move by that expiry — a range of about $228.00–$257.96.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.88
ATM implied volatility
71.6%
Total open interest
74,730
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±6.2% ($228.00–$257.96)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on ARM?

Rosenblatt most recently reiterated its rating on Arm Holdings plc to Buy on Jul 31, 2026 with a price target of $250 (from $270). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 2 downgrades, a net bearish lean.

Latest action
Rosenblatt — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
2
Net rating momentum
-2
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Jul 31, 2026RosenblattMaintainedBuy$270 → $250
Jul 30, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$360 → $320
Jul 30, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$202 → $212
Jul 30, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$475 → $340
Jul 30, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$475 → $350
Jul 30, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$350 → $280
Jul 30, 2026GuggenheimReiteratedBuy$255
Jul 30, 2026NeedhamReiteratedBuy$255
Jul 22, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$410 → $350
Jul 21, 2026SusquehannaMaintainedPositive$300 → $320
Jul 20, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$470 → $360
Jul 14, 2026HSBCDowngradeBuy → Hold$255 → $315

ARM Competitive Positioning

Arm Holdings plc (ARM) is tracked alongside these names in Semiconductors on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

ARM is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.