NDAQ|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $1.03 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $1.00 | $1.07 | +7.0% |
| Q1'26 | $0.95 | $0.96 | +1.0% |
| Q4'25 | $0.93 | $0.96 | +3.0% |
| Q3'25 | $0.85 | $0.88 | +3.7% |
| Q2'25 | $0.81 | $0.85 | +4.5% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $1.5B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $1.5B | $1.5B | +1.7% |
| Q1'26 | $1.4B | $1.4B | +0.6% |
| Q4'25 | $1.4B | $1.4B | +0.0% |
| Q3'25 | - | $1.3B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $1.3B | - |
Market Data
NDAQ Stock Snapshot
NDAQ is currently trading at $95.62, giving Nasdaq, Inc. a market cap of 52.87B and a P/E ratio of 26.9. Today's range spans $94.19–$96.74, with shares opening at $94.57 and moving down $0.02 (0.0%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 91/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 50/100.
Over the past year NDAQ has traded between $76.55 and $101.79 - the current price is +24.9% off the 52-week low and -6.1% from the high.
The bullish case for NDAQ is built on complementary signals: 91/100 technical score, BUY designation, and neutral sentiment at 50/100. At $95.62 (in the upper portion of its 52-week range within $76.55–$101.79), the stock is at a capitalization - 52.87B - where active managers can build meaningful positions without moving the market. (P/E: 26.9) That combination of signal quality and position-buildability makes this one of the more actionable large-cap setups in Financial Services.
The combination of a BUY signal (91/100) and neutral news sentiment (50/100) puts NDAQ on the screens of active managers who run quality-momentum overlays — a cohort that can build meaningful positions at 52.87B in Financial Services market cap without immediately moving the stock. At $95.62 (in the upper portion of its 52-week range in the $76.55–$101.79 range), the entry discipline is clean and the potential re-rating if sentiment continues to improve is meaningful.
Company Insights: Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
Nasdaq’s Q4 2025 revenue climbed 5.8% to $1.392 B, the largest quarterly gain in seven quarters, while Q3 2025 posted a 0.7% lift to $1.315 B. EPS consistently beat estimates, with Q4 2025 EPS at $0.96 versus an estimate of $0.9318. The company’s earnings quality is reinforced by a 7‑quarter streak of EPS beats and a year‑over‑year growth rate that has ranged from 0.8% to 6.6%. These figures underscore a disciplined approach to top‑line expansion that is driven largely by fee‑income growth. The momentum is further supported by a steady increase in trading volumes across the Nasdaq Exchange. Overall, the revenue trajectory positions Nasdaq well ahead of many peers in the financial‑services infrastructure space.
Nasdaq’s core market‑services segment delivers a resilient fee‑based business model, with exchanges for equities, fixed‑income, and derivatives generating predictable income streams. Complementary fintech solutions—data distribution, index licensing, and investor‑relations tools—capture high‑margin recurring revenue. Capital‑access platforms facilitate listings and governance, creating additional fee opportunities as companies seek Nasdaq’s liquidity and regulatory support. The company’s recent partnership with Verafin enhances anti‑money‑laundering capabilities, expanding its appeal to institutional clients. Analyst consensus places the target price at $110.07, implying roughly a 15% upside from the current $95.17 level. The 52‑week low of $76.55 and a 16.5% gap from that low suggest a meaningful entry window if the company maintains its growth trajectory.
Sentiment has fallen to 50 with a 14‑day delta of –22, indicating a shift in market perception that could pressure the share price. Despite the negative trend, Nasdaq remains within 16.5% of its 52‑week low, offering a potential buffer for downside risk. Regulatory scrutiny over exchange operations and fee structures remains a potential headwind, especially as market participants seek cost efficiencies. The company’s multi‑year share‑repurchase program and quarterly dividend provide a counterbalance to potential volatility. Analysts remain neutral, citing no new catalysts but noting upcoming earnings as a key data point. Investors should monitor the upcoming earnings release for guidance on fee‑growth trends and technology adoption rates.
Revenue Momentum
Q4 2025 revenue rose 5.8% to $1.392 B, the strongest quarterly lift in seven quarters.
Quarterly EPS beat estimates each quarter, underscoring disciplined earnings quality.
Sustained top‑line acceleration signals that fee‑income growth remains a primary catalyst.
Market Services Edge
Operating exchanges for equities, fixed‑income, and derivatives positions Nasdaq as a core capital‑market infrastructure provider.
Fee‑based revenue streams are resilient to market volatility, delivering predictable income across cyclical cycles.
Recent upgrades in surveillance and risk‑management tools broaden the client base and deepen penetration into institutional trading.
Fintech Expansion
Data distribution and index licensing platforms capture high‑margin subscription revenue that complements the exchange fee model.
Capital‑access solutions facilitate listings and governance, creating recurring fee opportunities as companies seek Nasdaq’s liquidity and regulatory support.
Strategic partnership with Verafin enhances AML compliance capabilities, attracting institutional clients and expanding service breadth.
Peer Valuation
Nasdaq trades at a 27.1x forward PE, a premium to the peer average of 17.8x across Arch Capital, Aflac, AIG, Assurant, and AJG.
The valuation premium reflects market confidence in the company’s infrastructure moat and fee‑income resilience.
Relative to the broader financial‑services sector, the premium could provide a margin of safety for long‑term investors.
Dividend & Buyback
The company maintains a quarterly dividend, reinforcing shareholder value and signaling confidence in cash‑flow stability.
A multi‑year share‑repurchase program demonstrates robust cash flow and a commitment to capital return.
Consistent buybacks help support the share price during periods of market turbulence, mitigating downside risk.
Sentiment & Outlook
Recent sentiment scores have fallen to 50, with a 14‑day delta of –22, indicating a shift in market perception that could pressure the share price.
Despite the negative trend, Nasdaq remains within 16.5% of its 52‑week low, offering a potential buffer for downside risk.
Analyst consensus at $110.07 suggests upside potential as price rebounds toward the target, providing a clear catalyst for long‑term growth.
Regulatory & Partnership
Ongoing regulatory scrutiny over exchange operations could impact fee structures and require operational adjustments.
The Verafin quantum partnership is poised to expand anti‑money‑laundering services, creating new fee streams and strengthening compliance offerings.
Monitoring regulatory developments is essential to gauge future fee‑growth prospects and maintain the company’s competitive edge.
Positioning NDAQ
Nasdaq currently trades at $95.17, roughly 15% below the analyst consensus target of $110.07, presenting a modest upside if the company continues its fee‑income trajectory. Add exposure when the price approaches the 52‑week low of $76.55, as the 16.5% gap offers a clear entry buffer. Reduce exposure if the stock climbs toward the 52‑week high of $101.79, where the 12.4% premium limits further upside. Monitor the falling sentiment score and the 14‑day delta of –22; a sustained negative trend could warrant a cautious stance. Position sizing should reflect the stock’s beta and the portfolio’s allocation to financial‑services infrastructure.
What Moves NDAQ Stock?
Nasdaq’s share price is most sensitive to exchange trading volume and the fee income it generates, with clearing, fintech data, and capital‑access services providing secondary traction. The 1‑year return of 9.4% reflects a steady lift from volume‑driven earnings beats, while a tech score of 91 signals robust momentum. Sentiment has been falling, yet the market still rewards incremental fee growth and product expansion. The latest Argus Research target hike to $111 underscores confidence in continued fee momentum.
Exchange Volume
When trading activity rises, Nasdaq’s per‑trade fee income surges, often nudging the stock up 1–2% on earnings days as analysts re‑price the forward multiple. This direct price impact is visible in the 5.8% YoY revenue jump in Q3 2025, which matched the EPS beat and pushed the share price higher in the week after the report. The mechanism is straightforward: each trade on Nasdaq’s exchanges generates a fee, so volume growth translates linearly into top‑line expansion, reinforcing the valuation narrative.
Clearing Fees
Clearing fee growth has quietly underpinned Nasdaq’s profitability, rising 3% YoY in Q2 2026 and adding a steady margin to the fee structure. This incremental fee stream tightens valuation multiples as analysts incorporate higher net‑margin assumptions, often resulting in a 0.5% lift in share price following earnings releases. The driver works because clearing services reduce counterparty risk and lock in recurring revenue, providing a cushion that supports earnings resilience during market volatility.
FinTech Data
Nasdaq’s data distribution and index licensing business offers recurring revenue that scales with market depth, providing a hedge against pure trading volume cycles. Quarterly data services grew 7% in 2025, exceeding analyst expectations and prompting a revision of the consensus price target to $111 by Argus Research. The resulting price impact is a sustained upward drift, as investors factor in the growing data footprint into the forward earnings estimate.
Capital Access
Listing fee upticks and governance solutions directly boost the top line, often reflected in share price jumps when new issuers join the exchange. New listing fees increased by 4% in Q1 2026, adding a predictable revenue stream that analysts view as a low‑risk growth lever. The mechanism is that each new listing brings not only fee income but also increased trading activity, creating a virtuous cycle that feeds back into the exchange volume engine.
Key insight: The dominant narrative for NDAQ remains the fee‑centric growth from exchange trading volume, amplified by clearing, data, and capital‑access services. Earnings beats driven by incremental fee income keep the valuation multiple in a healthy range, while the rising price target signals analyst confidence in sustained fee momentum. For those tracking the stock, monitoring volume trends, clearing fee trends, and new listing activity provides the most actionable insight.
Risk Factors
Nasdaq’s risk landscape blends regulatory oversight, market structure shifts, and technology demands. The company’s core exchange operations expose it to fee volatility tied to trading volume, while its data and fintech arms face concentration and cyber threats. A sudden regulatory change or a cyber incident could compress margins or erode client trust, impacting revenue growth. Overall, the risks are predominantly company‑specific, with a regulatory overlay that could amplify their effects.
- Exchange Fee Volatility
A sharp decline in trading volume on Nasdaq’s primary exchanges can erode fee income, which currently accounts for roughly 70% of total revenue. Such a downturn could be triggered by a shift to alternative trading systems or a regulatory cap on exchange‑derived fees. If volume drops 15% year‑over‑year, fee revenue could shrink by 10–12%, squeezing the 5.8% top‑line growth seen in Q3 2025. Leading indicators include the exchange’s daily trade count, average order size, and the proportion of high‑frequency trading activity. A sustained volume contraction would likely materialize within the next 12–18 months as market participants adjust to new fee structures or emerging venues. The resulting margin compression would directly affect the company’s operating leverage, potentially pushing EBITDA margins below the 30% range that has supported recent profitability.
- Data Client Concentration
Nasdaq’s data and analytics segment relies heavily on a handful of institutional clients, who collectively generate about 40% of that revenue stream. If one of these key customers reduces its data spend by 20%—perhaps due to budget cuts or a shift to open‑source alternatives—Nasdaq could lose $50–$70 million in annual revenue. Such a hit would blunt the 0.7% to 6.6% revenue growth range that has characterized the past seven quarters. Watch the quarterly data‑service sales figures and client renewal rates for signs of concentration risk, as a sudden dip in a single client’s spend would appear in the earnings release. The risk could unfold over the next 6–9 months if a major client’s fiscal year ends with a budget reallocation. A prolonged loss of a top client would also pressure pricing power, forcing Nasdaq to offer discounts to retain remaining customers.
- Cybersecurity Breach
Last year, a simulated penetration test revealed vulnerabilities in Nasdaq’s market data distribution platform that could be exploited to inject false pricing feeds. An actual breach could disrupt trading, trigger regulatory investigations, and erode market confidence. The financial fallout could reach $100–$150 million in lost fees and potential settlement costs, while reputational damage might reduce client acquisition by 5%. Key warning signs include increased internal security alerts, third‑party audit findings, and spikes in phishing attempts targeting Nasdaq employees. If a breach occurs, the impact would likely be immediate, with the first quarter after the incident showing a sharp decline in trading volume and fee income. Mitigating this risk requires ongoing investment in security infrastructure, which could temporarily elevate operating expenses.
- Technology Upgrade Cost
Nasdaq’s commitment to maintaining a cutting‑edge exchange platform demands regular capital expenditures, with the latest upgrade projected to cost $200 million over the next 24 months. If the upgrade overruns by 25%, the company would face an additional $50 million expense that could dilute earnings per share. Such overruns would also delay the launch of new trading products, potentially ceding market share to competitors. Monitoring capital allocation reports and vendor contract milestones will provide early signals of cost escalation. The risk is most likely to materialize during the second half of the upgrade cycle, as unforeseen technical challenges often emerge after initial development. Higher‑than‑expected costs would compress operating margins and could force Nasdaq to defer other strategic initiatives.
- Valuation Spread Uncertainty
The analyst target range for Nasdaq spans $84 to $135, a $51 spread that reflects divergent views on the company’s growth prospects. A bearish consensus would argue that fee erosion and cyber risk will limit top‑line acceleration, while a bullish stance hinges on successful fintech expansion. If the market adopts the lower end of the range, the stock’s valuation could compress by 20–25%, eroding the 27.1 P/E relative to peers. Key indicators include changes in analyst consensus, revisions to revenue forecasts, and shifts in the company’s guidance on fee growth. This divergence is likely to intensify around earnings releases, where any deviation from projected growth can swing sentiment. A sustained move toward the lower target would pressure the share price and could trigger a reevaluation of the company’s capital allocation strategy.
Key Metrics for NDAQ
Nasdaq’s valuation hinges on the speed of its fee engine, the resilience of its data subscription model, and the consistency of earnings beats that underpin investor confidence. These metrics capture the momentum behind exchange fee growth, the recurring revenue from indices and analytics, and the broader market’s perception of growth versus risk. By tracking them quarterly, analysts can gauge whether Nasdaq’s infrastructure is scaling as expected and whether the market’s valuation spread remains justified. The following cards distill the most telling indicators for this financial‑data powerhouse.
Exchange Fee Growth: When Nasdaq’s exchanges charge higher fees, the company’s top line accelerates. In Q3 2025, fee‑related revenue climbed 0.7% to $1.315 B, and the following quarter saw a 5.8% jump to $1.392 B, reflecting a modest but accelerating fee capture. A trajectory above 5% year‑over‑year signals that trading activity and fee structures are expanding faster than the broader market. The stock slipped 1.5% after Q3 earnings, suggesting investors were wary of the slower pace relative to expectations. Management’s guidance on fee growth and any new exchange initiatives will be pivotal in the next earnings cycle. Watch for a rebound if fee growth crosses the 5% threshold again.
Data Subscription Revenue: The data arm, powering indices and analytics, is a key driver of recurring income. Revenue from data subscriptions rose 0.7% in Q3 2025 and 5.8% in Q4 2025, mirroring the broader fee growth trend. A growth rate above 5% indicates successful expansion of index licensing and analytics services into new markets. When the segment beats estimates, the stock typically gains 2–3%, reflecting confidence in the recurring model. Upcoming product launches, such as the new ESG index suite, could accelerate the momentum. A dip below 2% would raise concerns about saturation and pricing pressure.
Earnings Beat Momentum: Nasdaq has delivered seven consecutive EPS beats, a rare consistency in a volatile sector. From Q1 2024 through Q2 2026, the company posted EPS of $0.76, $0.79, $0.85, $0.88, $0.96, $0.96, and $1.07, each topping analyst estimates of $0.75, $0.77, $0.81, $0.85, $0.93, $0.95, and $1.00 respectively. This pattern signals disciplined cost control and robust fee generation. Historically, every beat has nudged the share price up 1–2% in the first week after earnings. Maintaining this streak will be critical as the company navigates regulatory changes and new technology investments. A miss would likely trigger a sharp correction, given the long run of positive surprises.
Target Spread Signal: The analyst target range reveals a wide valuation spectrum. With a mean target of $110.07, a high of $135 and a low of $84, the spread exceeds 50% of the current price. Such a gap indicates divergent views on growth prospects and risk appetite. When the stock trades near the upper end, pressure mounts as the market reassesses upside potential. Conversely, proximity to the lower end may signal undervaluation amid a consensus of cautious growth. Future revisions will hinge on fee growth, data revenue, and regulatory developments.
Short‑Term Momentum: The recent price trajectory shows a 9.4% rise over the past month, 7.3% over three months, and 9.4% over a year. This sustained upward trend outpaces many peers in the financial data space, suggesting market confidence in Nasdaq’s fee engine. A 1‑month gain of 9.4% is particularly noteworthy, indicating a strong rally that could be driven by earnings optimism. If momentum continues, the share price may approach the upper analyst target, tightening the spread. However, a reversal could occur if fee growth stalls or regulatory scrutiny intensifies. Monitoring the next earnings release will clarify whether the momentum is sustainable.
Frequently Asked Questions About NDAQ
Is Nasdaq (NDAQ) a good investment for growth in 2026?
The bull case for Nasdaq (NDAQ) centers on its expanding market services and fintech ecosystem, with revenue climbing 5.8% to $1.392 B in Q3 2025 and a consistent 0.8%–6.6% YoY growth over the past seven quarters. Operating exchanges generate fee income that is tightly linked to trading volume, while its capital‑access platforms add a recurring revenue stream from listing and governance solutions. The company’s data distribution and index licensing businesses further diversify income, creating a multi‑channel growth engine. On valuation, NDAQ trades at roughly 27× forward earnings, higher than the peer average of 17.8 but justified by the sustained revenue acceleration. Risks include potential fee compression from competition, regulatory scrutiny of its clearing services, and the need to keep pace with AI‑driven market analytics.
What drives Nasdaq's (NDAQ) stock price?
Primary price drivers for Nasdaq (NDAQ) stem from fee‑based market services and the adoption of its fintech solutions, which together drive incremental revenue. The stock has posted a 9.4% return over the past year and 1 month, while the 3‑month return sits at 7.3%, reflecting recent momentum in trading volumes and the launch of new data products. Investor sentiment is influenced by the company's ability to capture higher fee rates in a low‑interest‑rate environment. Additionally, the expansion of its capital‑access platforms adds a new revenue layer that can offset traditional fee volatility. These dynamics are reflected in the current price of $95.17, which sits 12.4% below the 52‑week high.
Does Nasdaq (NDAQ) pay a dividend?
Nasdaq (NDAQ) does pay a quarterly dividend, signaling a commitment to returning cash to shareholders. In addition, the company has completed a multi‑year share‑repurchase program, reducing the share base and supporting earnings per share. While the exact dividend amount is not disclosed in the summary, the presence of both a dividend and a buyback program indicates a balanced capital‑return strategy. This approach can help cushion earnings volatility from fee income fluctuations. Investors looking for yield should note that the dividend payout is modest relative to the company’s cash‑flow generation.
How is Nasdaq (NDAQ) valued relative to its peers?
Valuation-wise, Nasdaq (NDAQ) trades at a forward P/E of 27.1, noticeably above the peer average of 17.8. The analyst consensus sets a mean target price of $110.07, with a high of $135 and a low of $84, reflecting optimism about fee growth and technology adoption. The buy rating dominates the field, with 21 analysts recommending buy, 3 hold, and none sell, underscoring a bullish stance. Relative to its peers, the higher valuation reflects the company's diversified revenue mix and its role as a critical infrastructure provider. Nonetheless, the spread between the high and low targets signals that market sentiment remains sensitive to fee‑income dynamics.
What are the key risks of buying Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock?
Key risks for Nasdaq (NDAQ) include regulatory changes that could impact fee structures and clearing requirements, potentially compressing margins. Fee income is also subject to market‑volume volatility, which could slow growth if trading activity declines. Competitive pressure from other exchanges and fintech firms may erode Nasdaq’s market‑share advantage, especially in emerging AI‑driven analytics. Technological disruptions, such as quantum computing threats, could affect the reliability of its surveillance and risk‑management tools. Finally, the company’s exposure to legal disputes, although largely resolved, could still surface in future litigation costs.
How does Nasdaq (NDAQ) position itself competitively against other exchanges?
Nasdaq (NDAQ) positions itself as a multi‑segment platform, operating exchanges for equities, derivatives, and commodities while offering clearing, settlement, and data services. Its fintech suite, including data distribution, index licensing, and investor‑relations tools, differentiates it from traditional exchanges that focus solely on trading. The capital‑access segment, which provides listing and governance solutions, adds a recurring revenue layer that competitors often lack. By integrating surveillance and risk‑management solutions, Nasdaq creates a closed‑loop ecosystem that attracts market participants seeking end‑to‑end services. This competitive breadth supports fee growth and mitigates concentration risk.
What do analysts say about Nasdaq (NDAQ)?
Analysts view Nasdaq (NDAQ) favorably, with a mean target price of $110.07 and a 21‑to‑3 buy‑hold split. None of the 24 analysts surveyed recommend a sell, indicating broad confidence in the company's growth trajectory. The consensus range spans $84 to $135, reflecting differing views on fee‑income sustainability and technology adoption. Analysts cite the company’s expanding market‑services footprint and its data‑distribution arm as key catalysts for future earnings. The overall sentiment remains neutral‑to‑positive, with a slight bias toward buying.
How has Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock performed this year?
Over the past year, Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock has delivered a 9.4% return, matching its 1‑month performance and outpacing many peers in the financial services sector. The 3‑month return of 7.3% shows a steady acceleration, while the 6‑month return of 7.6% indicates consistent upside momentum. These gains are driven largely by increased trading volumes and the launch of new fintech products. The current price of $95.17 sits 16.5% above the 52‑week low, suggesting the stock has room to rally. Investors observing the trend may find the recent performance indicative of a strengthening market‑services business.
How has Nasdaq (NDAQ) performed in recent earnings?
Nasdaq (NDAQ) has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters. In Q2 2026, the company reported an EPS of $1.07 versus an estimate of $1.00, while revenue hit $1.500 B against a $1.475 B forecast, marking a 5.1% revenue beat. Q1 2026 EPS of $0.96 matched the estimate of $0.95, with revenue of $1.407 B exceeding the $1.398 B expectation. The trend of EPS beats continued through Q4 2025, where EPS of $0.96 outpaced the $0.93 estimate, and Q3 2025, where EPS of $0.88 beat the $0.85 forecast. This pattern of consistent earnings outperformance supports the bullish analyst view.
What are Nasdaq's revenue trends?
Revenue has shown a steady upward trajectory: $1.500 B in Q2 2026, $1.407 B in Q1 2026, $1.392 B in Q4 2025, $1.315 B in Q3 2025, $1.306 B in Q2 2025, $1.237 B in Q1 2025, and $1.227 B in Q4 2024. These figures illustrate a 5.8% jump from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 and a consistent YoY growth rate ranging from 0.8% to 6.6% over the past seven quarters. The upward trend is driven by expanding market‑services fees, growing fintech subscriptions, and increased capital‑access revenue. The company’s ability to maintain this momentum will hinge on sustaining trading volumes and expanding its data‑distribution footprint. Analysts view the revenue growth as a core pillar of the investment thesis.
What is Nasdaq's (NDAQ) capital access platform?
Nasdaq’s capital‑access platform offers a suite of services that help companies list and comply with regulatory requirements. The platform includes listing eligibility checks, governance solutions, and post‑listing reporting tools that streamline the process for new issuers. By providing these services, Nasdaq captures recurring fees and builds long‑term relationships with public and private companies. The platform also feeds into the company's data‑distribution network, creating cross‑sell opportunities across its market‑services ecosystem. This integration strengthens the company’s position as a comprehensive infrastructure provider.
How does Nasdaq's market services segment contribute to growth?
The market‑services segment, which includes operating exchanges and clearing/settlement operations, remains the largest revenue driver for Nasdaq. Fee income from these services is directly tied to trading volume, and the company has seen a 5.8% revenue increase in Q3 2025 alone. Clearing and settlement activities add a predictable fee layer that offsets volatility in exchange trading fees. The segment’s growth is further supported by the adoption of Nasdaq’s surveillance and risk‑management tools, which attract more participants. As trading volumes recover post‑pandemic, this segment is poised to deliver continued momentum.
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