CP·Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited

Realized volatility (21d)

16.5% 20th pct

Below its peak

-11.3%

vs 200-day average

+0.9%

Up days (1y)

50%

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is currently running 16.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CP's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 20th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 21.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CP is trading -11.3% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -20.3%, and the deepest was -37.7% in 2015. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +0.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 38th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year CP closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, CP finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -1.8% and an average of +1.0%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +3.6% on average, its weakest December at -1.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 89 of 3,267 sessions (2.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.0% and -8.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-13, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CP's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.