EL|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25 | $0.83 | - | - |
| Q4'26 | $0.47 | $0.39 | -17.4% |
| Q3'26 | $0.35 | $0.91 | +158.7% |
| Q2'26 | $0.86 | $0.89 | +3.9% |
| Q3'25 | $0.18 | $0.32 | +81.9% |
| Q2'25 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +1.1% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25 | $4.2B | - | - |
| Q4'26 | $3.6B | $3.6B | -0.6% |
| Q3'26 | $3.5B | $3.7B | +4.6% |
| Q2'26 | $4.3B | $4.2B | -2.6% |
| Q3'25 | - | $3.5B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $3.4B | - |
EL|Monthly Returns
Market Data
EL Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 34.94B
- P/E ratio
- 192.0
- Day range
- $96.15 – $98.03
- News sentiment
- 63/100 · Bullish
- Analyst target
- $107.04 (+11.3%)
- Consensus
- Hold · 39 analysts
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is consolidating: price is in the middle of its 52-week range without a decisive push either way. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into EL?
At today's price, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 22.0% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.98% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 5.0% a year, so the market is asking for 17.0 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis EL looks priced above what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- 22.0%
- Historical FCF CAGR
- 5.0%
- Growth gap
- +17.0 pts
- Verdict
- RICH
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 9.98%
- Beta
- 1.29
Behaviour On Record
What EL's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 59.0% 94th pct
- Below its peak
- -74.1%
- vs 200-day average
- +4.2%
- Up days (1y)
- 49%
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is currently running 59.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against EL's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 94th percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 26.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.
EL is trading -74.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.4%, and the deepest was -63.3% in 2023. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.
Price sits +4.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 53rd percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year EL closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.
On September specifically: over 14 years of records, EL finished the month higher 3 of 14 times, with a median return of -1.6% and an average of -2.3%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.5% on average, its weakest March at -3.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.
Overnight risk is measurable too: EL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 117 of 3,268 sessions (3.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.3% and -11.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.
Across the last 4 dated reports on file, EL moved an average of 2.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 4 times, with a median move of +1.0% and a largest of +4.3%.
All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against EL's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of EL's sector?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 5th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).
- Sector rank
- #5 of 11
- Sector state
- Improving
- Sector rotation score
- 60
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on EL?
Barclays most recently reiterated its rating on The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. to Equal-Weight on Aug 21, 2026 with a price target of $97 (from $80). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.
- Latest action
- Barclays — Equal-Weight
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 0
- Net rating momentum
- 0
EL Competitive Positioning
- ELyou're hereThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc.$34.9B-2.05%
- PGThe Procter & Gamble Company$339.7B+0.23%
- CLColgate-Palmolive Company$70.5B-0.81%
- KVUEKenvue Inc.$34.2B-0.06%
- KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation$33.3B-0.26%
- CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc.$22.3B+0.27%
