DailyIQ
Last updated2 minutes ago

EL·The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.

$93.43
-0.43 (-0.46%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$93.43+0.00 (+0.00%)
High
$94.65
Open
$93.85
Market Cap
34.04B
52W High
$123.50
Low
$92.55
P. Close
$93.43
P/E
187.02
52W Low
$66.22
Fwd P/E
23.87
DailyIQ Est.
$109.89
Inst. Ownership
-
Short Interest
1.91%
Days to Cover
1.4
Technical Score (1D)
41
SELL
News Sentiment
67
BULLISH
Estée Lauder’s latest 24‑hour partnership with the University of Leeds to develop objective shade‑matching benchmarks signals a focused push to reduce product return rates and boost repeat purchases; the research will likely tighten the company’s product‑quality narrative and support near‑term sales momentum. A 29‑hour announcement of a global alliance with AI marketing platform Profound adds a data‑driven layer to the brand’s digital strategy, positioning EL to capture emerging consumer touchpoints on generative AI assistants and potentially improve marketing‑efficiency ratios. The 43‑hour report that EL is the first prestige beauty firm to deploy Profound’s Generative Engine Optimization at scale underscores the company’s intent to lead AI‑native discovery, which could translate into higher conversion rates once the technology is fully rolled out. An insider sale by board member Paul J. Fribourg worth $10 million, disclosed 48 hours ago, introduces short‑term uncertainty; while the transaction does not materially weaken the firm, it may signal liquidity concerns or a reassessment of the near‑term outlook among senior stakeholders. The 91‑hour AI partnership details the same GEO deployment, reinforcing the narrative that EL is aggressively pursuing digital transformation, though the financial impact remains to be quantified. Earlier developments—such as the 158‑hour court ruling allowing EL to broaden its counterfeiting claims against Walmart—strengthen the company’s intellectual‑property posture and could deter future counterfeit sales, potentially protecting margin integrity. The 230‑hour expansion of senior executives’ roles in technology and digital channels further illustrates EL’s commitment to operational efficiency and e‑commerce growth, which may be reflected in upcoming earnings guidance. Watch for the company’s next earnings release to see how the shade‑matching research and AI initiatives translate into sales lift and marketing‑efficiency gains, and monitor any subsequent insider activity that could signal evolving confidence among the board.
Earnings Summary
Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is a global leader in the prestige beauty market, developing, manufacturing, and distributing high‑quality skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products under brands such as Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, and La Mer, and selling through department stores, specialty retailers, online platforms, and direct‑to‑consumer channels. The company operates in the consumer defensive sector within household & personal products, benefiting from a diversified brand portfolio and multi‑channel distribution. In Q1 2025, Estée Lauder reported EPS of $0.65 versus an estimate of $0.31, and revenue of $3.55 billion, a strong beat that reflected robust demand across its core brands; Q2 2025 saw EPS of $0.09 against an estimate of $0.09 and revenue of $3.41 billion, a slight decline from Q1 but still above the prior year’s $3.30 billion. Q3 2025 delivered EPS of $0.32 versus an estimate of $0.18 and revenue of $3.48 billion, maintaining a positive trend, while Q4 2025 guidance shows revenue of $4.22 billion, up from $3.48 billion in Q3, indicating a seasonal lift. In 2026, Q2 EPS of $0.89 beat the $0.86 estimate and revenue of $4.23 billion fell slightly below the $4.34 billion estimate, whereas Q3 2026 EPS of $0.91 exceeded the $0.35 estimate and revenue of $3.71 billion surpassed the $3.55 billion estimate; Q4 2026 EPS of $0.39 fell short of the $0.47 estimate and revenue of $3.63 billion was slightly below the $3.65 billion estimate. Historically, Estée Lauder has shown consistent year‑over‑year revenue growth, with EPS generally beating estimates in the majority of quarters, though recent guidance indicates a potential slowdown in earnings momentum. Recent news highlights a modest insider sale by director Charlene Barshefsky, which is unlikely to alter strategic direction but may influence short‑term market sentiment; additionally, the board’s expansion of digital and technology roles signals a renewed focus on e‑commerce and operational efficiency, which could impact future earnings through accelerated digital sales growth. Investors should watch for the company’s upcoming earnings guidance for any revisions to revenue or margin expectations, monitor the pace of digital sales expansion under the new technology leadership, and track any early indications of cost savings or efficiency gains from the transformation agenda, as these factors will be key to understanding the trajectory of future profitability.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.03$0.23$0.50$0.77$1.03Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26Q4'25
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'25$0.83 - -
Q4'26$0.47$0.39-17.4%
Q3'26$0.35$0.91+158.7%
Q2'26$0.86$0.89+3.9%
Q3'25$0.18$0.32+81.9%
Q2'25$0.09$0.09+1.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$3.3B$3.6B$3.9B$4.2B$4.5BQ2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26Q4'25
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'25$4.2B - -
Q4'26$3.6B$3.6B-0.6%
Q3'26$3.5B$3.7B+4.6%
Q2'26$4.3B$4.2B-2.6%
Q3'25 - $3.5B -
Q2'25 - $3.4B -

Market Data

EL Stock Snapshot

HOLD41/100
$93.43+$0.00 (0.0%)
Market cap
34.04B
P/E ratio
187.0
Day range
$92.55 – $94.65
News sentiment
67/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$107.04 (+14.6%)
Consensus
Hold · 39 analysts
52-week range+41.1% off low · -24.3% from high
$66.22$123.50
Price $93.43 DailyIQ Est. $109.89

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is consolidating: price is in the middle of its 52-week range without a decisive push either way. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into EL?

RICH

At today's price, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 20.9% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.90% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 5.0% a year, so the market is asking for 15.9 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis EL looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
20.9%
Historical FCF CAGR
5.0%
Growth gap
+15.9 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
9.90%
Beta
1.28

Behaviour On Record

What EL's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
34.6% 69th pct
Below its peak
-74.9%
vs 200-day average
+1.0%
Up days (1y)
48%

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is currently running 34.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against EL's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 69th percentile a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 26.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

EL is trading -74.9% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.4%, and the deepest was -63.3% in 2023. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +1.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 45th percentile close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year EL closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, EL finished the month higher 3 of 13 times, with a median return of -1.6% and an average of -2.6%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.5% on average, its weakest March at -3.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: EL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 117 of 3,267 sessions (3.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.3% and -11.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 4 dated reports on file, EL moved an average of 2.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 4 times, with a median move of +1.0% and a largest of +4.3%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against EL's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of EL's sector?

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 6th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#6 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
60

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for EL?

CallsPuts

For The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 6 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.47), with at-the-money implied volatility around 79.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±9.2% move by that expiry — a range of about $93.92–$112.92.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.47
ATM implied volatility
79.8%
Total open interest
1,087
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±9.2% ($93.92–$112.92)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on EL?

Barclays most recently reiterated its rating on The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. to Equal-Weight on Aug 21, 2026 with a price target of $97 (from $80). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
BarclaysEqual-Weight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Aug 21, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$80 → $97
Aug 20, 2026JefferiesMaintainedHold$88 → $100
Aug 20, 2026Canaccord GenuityMaintainedHold$85 → $90
Aug 20, 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainedMarket Perform$90 → $108
Aug 20, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$110 → $115
Aug 20, 2026Goldman SachsMaintainedBuy$100 → $112
Aug 20, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$94 → $112
Aug 20, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$90 → $102
Aug 20, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$86 → $106
Aug 20, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedOverweight$95 → $115
Aug 20, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$85 → $104
Aug 20, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$90 → $100

EL Competitive Positioning

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is tracked alongside these names in Household & Personal Products on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.