DailyIQ
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DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer DefensiveAll sectors
Last updated1 minute ago

PM·Philip Morris International Inc.

$201.50
-9.78 (-4.63%)
Pre-Market
High
$202.00
Open
$199.02
Market Cap
316.63B
52W High
$214.35
Low
$196.82
P. Close
$201.50
P/E
29.57
52W Low
$146.35
Fwd P/E
22.28
DailyIQ Est.
$219.12
Inst. Own.
71.8%
Short Interest
1.08%
Days to Cover
3.9
Div. Yield
3.02%
Next Ex-Div
~Jan 4
Div. Growth
17+ yrs
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Oct 21, 2026New outlook issued · tone +8.7 vs prior release · 117 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
78
BULLISH
News Sentiment
52
MIXED
On Nov 5, analysts noted that Philip Morris International’s five‑year share‑price gain of 181.7 % had highlighted the company’s strong earnings momentum, prompting a debate over whether the current valuation fully captures its earnings potential. The same day, the company’s recent dividend hike was reported to be supported by robust operating cash flow and an expanding share of revenue from smoke‑free products, suggesting a durable profit base. Investors were weighing how much of this earnings power was already priced in and whether the stock remained fairly valued, according to the sources. The discussion centered on the company’s earnings strength and the sustainability of its dividend growth. No additional developments were reported for the day.
LOW TARGET
$175 -11.5%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$213 +7.8%
14 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$240 +21.4%
12 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$175.00 - $240.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
9/10/7/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$219.12 (+10.8%)
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Industry
Tobacco
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Website
pmi.com
Symbol
PM
Description
Philip Morris International (PM) is a global leader in the tobacco industry, primarily focused on providing consumers with a range of nicotine-containing products. The company’s core business revolves around the manufacture and distribution of traditional cigarettes, alongside a growing portfolio of smoke-free alternatives. These innovative offerings include heated tobacco systems, such as IQOS, and modern oral nicotine products like ZYN, catering to evolving consumer preferences. Complementing its core product lines, PM also provides related accessories such as lighters and matches. Incorporated in 1987 and headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, the company strategically positions itself to navigate the changing landscape of the global tobacco market.
68/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
67.1%
Net Margin
27.9%
Revenue CAGR
-1.7%
Current Ratio
0.96x
Debt / Equity
-4.53x
Return on Equity
-113.5%
View full financials →

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.60$1.82$2.03$2.24$2.46Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$1.87 - -
Q3'26$2.36$2.36+0.0%
Q2'26$2.05$2.20+7.3%
Q1'26$1.83$1.96+7.1%
Q4'25$1.75$1.70-2.9%
Q3'25$2.10$2.24+6.9%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$9.7B$10.2B$10.8B$11.3B$11.9BQ3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$11.1B - -
Q3'26$11.6B$11.4B-1.5%
Q2'26$11.0B$11.2B+2.1%
Q1'26$9.9B$10.1B+2.4%
Q4'25$10.8B$10.4B-3.6%
Q3'25 - $10.8B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

PM Stock Snapshot

BULLISH78/100
$197.40−$2.25 (1.1%)
Market cap
316.63B
P/E ratio
29.6
Day range
$196.82 – $202.00
News sentiment
52/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$213.27 (+8.0%)
Consensus
Buy · 28 analysts
52-week range+34.9% off low · -7.9% from high
$146.35$214.35
Price $197.40 DailyIQ Est. $219.12

PM's technical picture is constructive, with trend and momentum pointing the same direction. A stock this widely held moves on consensus revisions more than on individual catalysts.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into PM?

FAIR

At today's price, Philip Morris International Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 4.3% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 6.07% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 7.2% a year, so the market is asking for 2.8 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis PM looks priced roughly in line with its own growth record.

Implied FCF growth
4.3%
Growth trend
7.2%
Growth gap
-2.8 pts
Verdict
FAIR
Discount rate (WACC)
6.07%
Beta
0.39

Behaviour On Record

What PM's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
28.7% 85th pct
Below its peak
0.0%
vs 200-day average
+16.6%
Up days (1y)
53%

Philip Morris International Inc. is currently running 28.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 85th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 19.1%.

PM is at its running peak. Across 13 full years on file its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -18.8%, with the deepest at -40.4% in 2018.

Price sits +16.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 92nd percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year PM closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On November specifically: over 13 years of records, PM finished the month higher 5 of 13 times, with a median return of -1.0% and an average of +0.2%. Its strongest month historically has been February at +4.0% on average, its weakest September at -2.6%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 35 of 3,268 sessions (1.1% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.6% and -8.4%.

Across the last 4 dated reports on file, PM moved an average of 1.9% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 4 times, with a median move of +0.8% and a largest of +3.0%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of PM's sector?

Philip Morris International Inc. sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 2nd of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#2 of 12
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
73

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for PM?

CallsPuts

For Philip Morris International Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-11-06, 0 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.49), with at-the-money implied volatility around 3.1%.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-06)
0.49
ATM implied volatility
3.1%
Total open interest
3,759

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect PM to earn?

Analysts expect Philip Morris International Inc. to earn $8.35 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $10.87 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2029, from 2 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$1.82$1.77 to $1.9911$10.84B9
Mar 2027$2.05$1.99 to $2.147$10.57B6
Jun 2027$2.32$2.19 to $2.414~$11.69B-
Sep 2027$2.50$2.37 to $2.594~$12.60B-
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$8.35$8.29 to $8.5115$43.58B12
Dec 2027$9.06$8.89 to $9.2015$45.65B13
Dec 2028$9.86$9.68 to $10.023~$49.68B-
Dec 2029$10.87$10.72 to $11.022~$54.77B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PM?

Stifel most recently reiterated its rating on Philip Morris International Inc. to Buy on Nov 3, 2026 with a price target of $232 (from $205). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Stifel: Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Nov 3, 2026StifelMaintainedBuy$205 → $232
Oct 26, 2026Argus ResearchMaintainedBuy$210 → $220
Oct 22, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$193 → $201
Oct 22, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$215 → $220
Sep 23, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$182 → $193
Jul 30, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$210 → $225
Jul 29, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$205 → $225
Jul 23, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$200 → $215
Jul 23, 2026StifelMaintainedBuy$195 → $205
Jul 23, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$200 → $215
Jul 2, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$168 → $182
Jun 3, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$190 → $200

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Philip Morris International Inc.'s latest earnings release say?

Filed Oct 21, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

New outlook issued
Tone81.8/ 100+8.7 vs prior release
Hedging words0.27per 100 words-0.12 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 50–87

Most important lines

  1. 1

    Growing (previously broadly stable to slightly growing) total PMI cigarette and SFP shipment volume, with high single-digit SFP shipment growth, led by high single-digit SFP adjusted IMS growth, and a cigarette shipment volume decline at a similar level to the year-to-date trend (previously around 2% to 3%);

    Guidance raisedNew this quarter
  2. 2

    Dividend: Increased regular quarterly dividend by 8.8% to $1.60 per share, or an annualized $6.40 per share.

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    Reported diluted EPS of $2.12 declined by 4.9%, mainly due to the non-cash fair value adjustment for equity security investments.

    New this quarterNegative tone

Scores describe the release's wording. They are not a forecast.

Read all 117 scored lines →

Peers & ETF holders

PM peers & ETF holders

TobaccoMarket cap · today

Top ETF holdersWeight

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about PM?

PM rose 4.0% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 37 and 82 from Oct 6 to Oct 19, then jumped to 64 on Oct 20.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 6 to Nov 6
$190$200$210Oct 6: tone 76Oct 7: tone 82Oct 8Oct 9Oct 12: tone 51Oct 13: tone 57Oct 14: tone 63Oct 15: tone 66Oct 16: tone 53Oct 19: tone 37Oct 20: tone 64Oct 21: tone 56Oct 22: tone 55Oct 23: tone 68Oct 26: tone 59Oct 27: tone 70Oct 28: tone 50Oct 29: tone 50Oct 30: tone 63Nov 2: tone 52Nov 3: tone 59Nov 4Nov 5: tone 53Nov 6Oct 6News toneNov 6123
  1. Oct 8 +4.0%
  2. Oct 14 +3.7%same day: Philip Morris International to Host Webcast of 2026 Third-Quarter and First Nine-Months Results
  3. Nov 5 -4.6%same day: Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on Philip Morris International Stock?
Latest stories naming Philip Morris International

Technical analysis

How strong is PM's momentum right now?

On the daily chart PM ranks at the 78th percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bullish reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling PM?

96 of the 201 tracked managers added to PM in their latest 13F and 98 trimmed. Together they own 71.8% of the company, worth $208.8B. Capital World Investors and BlackRock alone hold 15.0%.

96adding98trimming7unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of PM
  1. 1Capital World Investors8.31%
    $24.1B positionTrimmed 0.2% last quarter
  2. 2BlackRock, Inc.6.74%
    $19.5B positionAdded 0.5% last quarter
  3. 3Vanguard Capital Management LLC6.35%
    $18.4B positionAdded 0.6% last quarter
  4. 4Capital Research Global Investors5.26%
    $15.2B positionAdded 5.6% last quarter
  5. 5Capital International Investors4.51%
    $13.1B positionTrimmed 0.7% last quarter
  6. 6State Street Corp3.47%
    $10.1B positionAdded 1.0% last quarter
  7. 7JPMorgan Chase & Co3.01%
    $8.8B positionTrimmed 6.6% last quarter
  8. 8FMR LLC (Fidelity)2.90%
    $8.4B positionAdded 3.9% last quarter
  9. 9GQG Partners LLC2.83%
    $8.2B positionTrimmed 9.3% last quarter
  10. 10Geode Capital Management, LLC2.44%
    $7.1B positionAdded 1.5% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading PM?

10 members of Congress disclosed 15 PM trades between Sep 5, 2017 and Mar 27, 2026: 4 buys and 11 sells, about $527.5K in estimated value.

BuysSells20182020202220242026
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

What stands out

Click one to highlight its trades in the chart
Full trading history

Discover more

How has PM done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 6, PM returned +16.1%. Of the 14 related stocks and ETFs, 5 did better, led by EL at +23.3%.

Change since May 6, through Nov 6
−40%−20%0%+20%+40%May 6JunJulAugSepOctNov 6EL +23.3%PM +16.1%PEP −10.5%