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GOOGL·Alphabet Inc.

$338.42
-4.06 (-1.19%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$338.72+0.30 (+0.09%)
High
$343.95
Open
$342.47
Market Cap
4.19T
52W High
$408.61
Low
$337.09
P. Close
$338.42
P/E
17.16
52W Low
$233.22
Fwd P/E
22.79
DailyIQ Est.
$448.09
Inst. Ownership
39.3%
Short Interest
0.59%
Days to Cover
2.7
Technical Score (1D)
41
SELL
News Sentiment
56
BULLISH
Alphabet’s latest AI strategy is now the headline driver for GOOGL, with the company announcing a $200 billion capital‑expenditure push aimed at scaling its AI‑centric services across Search, Gemini, and GCP. The plan is expected to generate a 20%+ return on invested capital, and analysts are projecting a 26% upside to the current price on the back of this expansion. The valuation, sitting at 16.6× forward earnings, is viewed as modest, implying that the market has not yet priced in the full monetization potential of the AI push. This shift in focus to AI‑driven revenue streams should lift demand for Alphabet’s cloud and advertising businesses over the next 1–10 trading days, as the company’s AI offerings become more integrated into its core products. Investors should watch for early signs of revenue acceleration from Gemini and GCP, as well as any updates on the rollout of new AI features in Search. Regulatory scrutiny remains a risk, so any new antitrust or data‑privacy rulings could temper the upside. The capital‑expenditure plan also signals that Alphabet is prioritizing long‑term growth over short‑term profitability, which may influence the company’s earnings guidance. Finally, keep an eye on the broader AI market sentiment, as shifts in sentiment could affect the valuation multiples that analysts are using to forecast the 26% upside.
Earnings Summary
Alphabet Inc., a global technology leader, operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets, delivering advertising, search, YouTube, Android, and AI solutions across multiple regions. The company’s core value lies in its diversified digital ecosystem, positioning it as a dominant player in the Internet Content & Information sector. In the most recent quarters, Alphabet posted EPS of $2.15 in Q4 2024, $2.81 in Q1 2025, $2.31 in Q2 2025, and $2.87 in Q3 2025, all beating analyst estimates and reflecting a consistent upward trajectory; revenue grew from $96.47 bn in Q4 2024 to $102.35 bn in Q3 2025, a 6.4% YoY increase, while Q1 2025 revenue dipped slightly to $90.23 bn before rebounding. The company has maintained a pattern of EPS beats in every quarter since Q4 2024, with revenue growth accelerating in Q3 2025 after a modest decline in Q1 2025. Historically, Alphabet has shown steady YoY revenue growth of 5–7% over the past four quarters, with EPS consistently surpassing estimates, underscoring disciplined cost management and robust ad and cloud performance. Recent news highlights include the launch of an agentic AI service for financial professionals, early access to Deutsche Bank and CME, and a partnership with Marvell to supply chips for its data‑center and cloud operations; these developments suggest a strategic push into fintech AI and enhanced in‑house silicon capabilities. Investors should watch for early adoption metrics of the new AI service, any updates on the Marvell partnership, and potential regulatory scrutiny of AI in finance, as these factors could influence Alphabet’s cloud revenue trajectory and overall earnings guidance. Key will be monitoring how the fintech AI rollout translates into incremental revenue and whether the company’s AI infrastructure investments begin to materialize in the next earnings cycle.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.15$3.40$5.65$7.90$10.15Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$3.00 - -
Q2'26$2.98$9.11+206.2%
Q1'26$2.70$5.11+89.4%
Q4'25$2.71$2.82+4.2%
Q3'25$2.26$2.87+26.9%
Q2'25$2.19$2.31+5.7%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$89.2B$101.0B$112.8B$124.6B$136.4BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$131.0B - -
Q2'26$120.4B$103.6B-13.9%
Q1'26$109.8B$94.7B-13.8%
Q4'25$114.8B$97.2B-15.3%
Q3'25 - $102.3B -
Q2'25 - $96.4B -

Market Data

GOOGL Stock Snapshot

HOLD41/100
$338.72+$0.30 (0.1%)
Market cap
4.19T
P/E ratio
17.2
Day range
$337.09 – $343.95
News sentiment
56/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$428.07 (+26.4%)
Consensus
Buy · 72 analysts
52-week range+45.2% off low · -17.1% from high
$233.22$408.61
Price $338.72 DailyIQ Est. $448.09

Neither side has the upper hand on GOOGL right now, and the indicator set reflects that. Coverage is deep enough that new information gets priced quickly, so surprises tend to be macro rather than fundamental.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into GOOGL?

RICH

At today's price, Alphabet Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 41.5% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 10.38% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 18.9% a year, so the market is asking for 22.6 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis GOOGL looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
41.5%
Historical FCF CAGR
18.9%
Growth gap
+22.6 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
10.38%
Beta
1.14

Behaviour On Record

What GOOGL's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
19.2% 31st pct
Below its peak
-14.9%
vs 200-day average
+2.3%
Up days (1y)
49%

Alphabet Inc. is currently running 19.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against GOOGL's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 31st percentile on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 24.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

GOOGL is trading -14.9% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -18.5%, and the deepest was -44.3% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +2.3% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 29th percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year GOOGL closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, GOOGL finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +0.1% and an average of -1.1%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +6.5% on average, its weakest February at -3.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: GOOGL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 54 of 3,269 sessions (1.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +4.9% and -6.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, GOOGL moved an average of 3.0% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.9% and a largest of -3.5%.

All figures computed from 3,270 daily closes between 2013-09-05 and 2026-09-04, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against GOOGL's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of GOOGL's sector?

Alphabet Inc. sits in the Communication Services sector, currently ranked 4th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#4 of 11
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
60

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for GOOGL?

CallsPuts

For Alphabet Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-09, 4 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.31), with at-the-money implied volatility around 21.9%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±2.3% move by that expiry — a range of about $330.38–$345.66.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-09)
0.31
ATM implied volatility
21.9%
Total open interest
14,992
Expected move by 2026-09-09
±2.3% ($330.38–$345.66)

GOOGL Competitive Positioning

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is tracked alongside these names in Internet Content & Information on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.