AAPL·Apple Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

15.6% 13th pct

Below its peak

0.0%

vs 200-day average

+17.1%

Up days (1y)

53%

Apple Inc. is currently running 15.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AAPL's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 13th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 23.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AAPL is at its running peak. Across 13 full years on file its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -19.4%, with the deepest at -36.7% in 2018 — so highs have historically been given back before they were extended.

Price sits +17.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 74th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year AAPL closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, AAPL finished the month higher 10 of 14 times, with a median return of +4.9% and an average of +3.6%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +5.6% on average, its weakest September at -1.7%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AAPL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 52 of 3,272 sessions (1.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.8% and -7.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,273 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AAPL's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.