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Last updated2 minutes ago

KMI·Kinder Morgan, Inc.

$31.83
+0.53 (+1.69%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$31.57-0.26 (-0.82%)
High
$32.19
Open
$31.20
Market Cap
68.43B
52W High
$34.97
Low
$31.16
P. Close
$31.83
P/E
19.74
52W Low
$25.60
Fwd P/E
20.59
DailyIQ Est.
$36.66
Inst. Ownership
35.6%
Short Interest
2.24%
Days to Cover
4.1
Technical Score (1D)
32
SELL
News Sentiment
49
MIXED
Jefferies has cut its price target for Kinder Morgan to $33 from $35, citing mounting operating‑margin pressure and regulatory uncertainty, while keeping a hold rating. This downgrade signals a modest negative valuation outlook that could dampen investor enthusiasm in the coming days. The adjustment follows the company’s recent outperformance, where KMI closed up 1.89% and beat the S&P 500, driven by a 13.8% year‑over‑year rise in EPS and an 8.3% lift in quarterly revenue. The positive earnings outlook—projected full‑year EPS of $1.55 and revenue of $18.49 billion—provides a counterweight to the Jefferies downgrade, suggesting that the market may still view the pipeline operator favorably. Traders should watch the upcoming earnings release for confirmation of margin trends and any regulatory updates that could alter the cost structure. If earnings confirm the guidance, the price target may hold steady; if margins slip or regulatory risk materializes, the target could be revised further downward. The next key event is the earnings call, where management’s commentary on pipeline utilization and capital expenditures will be critical. Monitoring any new regulatory filings or pipeline expansion approvals in the next 1–10 trading days will also help gauge whether the company’s valuation remains justified.
Earnings Summary
Kinder Morgan, Inc. is a North American energy infrastructure provider that transports and stores natural gas, refined petroleum products, crude oil, and CO2, operating through pipelines, terminals, and storage facilities. The company’s business sits within the oil & gas midstream sector, a segment that relies heavily on long‑term take‑or‑pay contracts to generate stable cash flow. In the most recent quarters, KMI’s earnings have shown a modest acceleration: Q4 2024 EPS of $0.32 fell slightly below the $0.33 estimate, while Q1 2025 EPS of $0.34 trailed the $0.36 estimate; however, Q2 2025 EPS of $0.28 beat the $0.28 estimate and Q3 2025 EPS of $0.29 missed the $0.30 estimate. Revenue has trended upward, rising from $3.987 billion in Q4 2024 to $4.241 billion in Q2 2025, and then to $4.146 billion in Q3 2025, indicating a steady growth trajectory. The company has consistently met or narrowly missed analyst expectations, with EPS beating estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and revenue growth maintaining a positive trend. Historically, KMI has posted YoY revenue growth of roughly 8–10% over the past few years, while EPS has fluctuated around the 5–10% range, reflecting the impact of commodity price volatility and capital expenditures. Recent news highlights KMI’s continued 1099‑DIV status, which preserves its appeal to IRA investors and supports dividend stability, and the announcement of at least $1.4 billion in new natural‑gas projects that could lift its backlog beyond $10 billion and add $1.7 billion of incremental EBITDA by 2028‑29. These developments underscore a strategic focus on expanding capacity under fee‑based take‑or‑pay contracts, which should reinforce cash flow and dividend sustainability. Going forward, investors should watch for confirmation of the new project approvals in the next earnings release, any regulatory changes that could affect pipeline construction timelines, and shifts in U.S. LNG export volumes that may influence demand assumptions underlying the projected EBITDA gains. These factors will be key to assessing whether KMI can maintain its revenue growth and EPS trajectory in the coming quarters.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.25$0.31$0.38$0.44$0.51Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.33 - -
Q2'26$0.33$0.37+12.5%
Q1'26$0.40$0.48+19.6%
Q4'25$0.37$0.39+5.4%
Q3'25$0.30$0.29-2.8%
Q2'25$0.28$0.28+0.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$3.9B$4.2B$4.4B$4.7B$4.9BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$4.4B - -
Q2'26$4.3B$4.5B+4.6%
Q1'26$4.6B$4.8B+4.0%
Q4'25$4.4B$4.5B+3.5%
Q3'25 - $4.1B -
Q2'25 - $4.0B -

Market Data

KMI Stock Snapshot

SELL32/100
$31.57$0.26 (0.8%)
Market cap
68.43B
P/E ratio
19.7
Day range
$31.16 – $32.19
News sentiment
49/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$36.00 (+14.0%)
Consensus
Buy · 30 analysts
52-week range+23.3% off low · -9.7% from high
$25.60$34.97
Price $31.57 DailyIQ Est. $36.66

Price action on KMI is defensive - rallies are being sold rather than extended. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into KMI?

FAIR

At today's price, Kinder Morgan, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 12.2% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.90% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 14.5% a year, so the market is asking for 2.2 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis KMI looks priced roughly in line with its own growth record.

Implied FCF growth
12.2%
Historical FCF CAGR
14.5%
Growth gap
-2.2 pts
Verdict
FAIR
Discount rate (WACC)
6.90%
Beta
0.56

Behaviour On Record

What KMI's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
22.3% 53rd pct
Below its peak
-28.5%
vs 200-day average
+1.9%
Up days (1y)
53%

Kinder Morgan, Inc. is currently running 22.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against KMI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 53rd percentile close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 21.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

KMI is trading -28.5% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -20.1%, and the deepest was -67.3% in 2015. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +1.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 48th percentile close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year KMI closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, KMI finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -1.1% and an average of -1.3%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +3.4% on average, its weakest December at -2.8%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: KMI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 97 of 3,268 sessions (3.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.8% and -5.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, KMI moved an average of 2.0% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +0.4% and a largest of +3.7%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against KMI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of KMI's sector?

Kinder Morgan, Inc. sits in the Energy sector, currently ranked 2nd of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#2 of 11
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
80

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for KMI?

CallsPuts

For Kinder Morgan, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 6 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.26), with at-the-money implied volatility around 35.4%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±4.2% move by that expiry — a range of about $29.14–$31.68.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.26
ATM implied volatility
35.4%
Total open interest
8,585
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±4.2% ($29.14–$31.68)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on KMI?

Jefferies most recently reiterated its rating on Kinder Morgan, Inc. to Hold on Sep 18, 2026 with a price target of $33 (from $35). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
JefferiesHold
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 18, 2026JefferiesMaintainedHold$35 → $33
Jul 23, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$35 → $36
Apr 23, 2026JefferiesMaintainedHold$36 → $34
Mar 30, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$28 → $33
Mar 30, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$32 → $35
Mar 26, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Perform$31 → $32
Mar 24, 2026JefferiesMaintainedHold$31 → $36
Mar 24, 2026Truist SecuritiesInitiatedHold$38
Mar 17, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Perform$30 → $31
Mar 13, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$34 → $35
Mar 13, 2026StifelMaintainedHold$30 → $33
Mar 5, 2026MizuhoMaintainedOutperform$31 → $37

KMI Competitive Positioning

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) is tracked alongside these names in Oil & Gas Midstream on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.