DailyIQ
|
Sector:TechnologyAll sectors
Last updated1 minute ago

LRCX·Lam Research Corporation

$287.51
+18.92 (+7.03%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$288.18+0.67 (+0.23%)
High
$288.47
Open
$274.41
Market Cap
360.52B
52W High
$438.50
Low
$268.76
P. Close
$287.51
P/E
49.62
52W Low
$125.02
Fwd P/E
24.73
DailyIQ Est.
$395.49
Inst. Ownership
47.2%
Short Interest
2.22%
Days to Cover
3.8
Technical Score (1D)
9
SELL
News Sentiment
63
BULLISH
Lam Research’s shares edged higher in pre‑market trading after the company announced a $1.2 billion wafer‑cleaning plant in India, underscoring a strategic push into the fast‑growing Asian semiconductor market and signaling continued demand for its equipment. The new facility expands Lam’s footprint in a region that is expected to drive a significant portion of global chip production growth over the next decade, which could lift the company’s revenue mix and improve margin stability. In the same week, analysts noted that Lam’s recent dividend hike and its 5‑year shareholder return of roughly 372% have fueled a debate over whether the current valuation premium reflects the firm’s earnings power and future growth prospects. The dividend increase is a clear sign that management believes cash flow will remain robust, which may support a higher price‑to‑earnings multiple in the near term. The market is weighing whether the premium paid is justified by the company’s ability to capture new business in Asia and sustain its high operating margins. Over the next 1–10 trading days, investors should watch for any confirmation of the India plant’s operational timeline and any updates on customer pipeline expansion in that region. Additionally, keep an eye on Lam’s quarterly earnings guidance, as it will reveal whether the company can translate the new capacity into revenue growth. Finally, monitor broader semiconductor demand indicators, such as global fab construction spending, which could influence the pace at which Lam’s new plant contributes to top‑line growth.
Earnings Summary
Lam Research Corporation is a global provider of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, designing, manufacturing, and servicing advanced processing systems that enable integrated circuit fabrication across Asia, Europe, and the United States, positioning it within the highly cyclical semiconductor equipment sector. In the most recent four quarters, Lam’s revenue has risen from $4.376B in Q4 2024 to $5.841B in Q3 2026, a 33% increase, while EPS has climbed from $0.91 to $1.47, a 62% rise; the company consistently beat analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters, with EPS exceeding forecasts by $0.03–$0.13 and revenue surpassing expectations in Q2 2026 and Q3 2026. Historically, Lam has maintained a steady YoY revenue growth trajectory, averaging 9.7% annualized over five years, and has repeatedly outperformed earnings expectations, underscoring a pattern of robust top‑line expansion even when margins face pressure from supply‑chain constraints. Recent news highlights the firm’s strategic capacity expansion, adding eight to ten new clean rooms at key customers and leveraging AI‑driven field engineering to improve installation efficiency, which should support higher customer‑support revenue and margin gains toward the mid‑50% range; meanwhile, a CEO share sale has introduced short‑term market sentiment volatility but is unlikely to affect long‑term operations. Investors should watch for the operationalization pace of the new clean rooms, the actual margin improvement from AI tools, and any guidance updates that clarify capacity expansion timing, as these factors will shape Lam’s near‑term performance and market perception.}}

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.05$1.37$1.69$2.01$2.33Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$2.18 - -
Q4'26$1.68$1.82+8.1%
Q3'26$1.36$1.47+7.8%
Q2'26$1.19$1.27+6.3%
Q3'25$1.22$1.26+3.3%
Q2'25$1.21$1.33+10.4%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$4.7B$5.7B$6.7B$7.8B$8.8BQ2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$8.3B - -
Q4'26$6.8B$6.7B-1.1%
Q3'26$5.8B$5.8B+1.5%
Q2'26$5.3B$5.3B+0.0%
Q3'25 - $5.3B -
Q2'25 - $5.2B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

LRCX Stock Snapshot

SELL9/100
$288.18+$0.67 (0.2%)
Market cap
360.52B
P/E ratio
49.6
Day range
$268.76 – $288.47
News sentiment
63/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$373.13 (+29.5%)
Consensus
Buy · 43 analysts
52-week range+130.5% off low · -34.3% from high
$125.02$438.50
Price $288.18 DailyIQ Est. $395.49

The chart on LRCX has not stabilised: price is in the middle of its 52-week range and the trend is still down. Coverage is deep enough that new information gets priced quickly, so surprises tend to be macro rather than fundamental.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into LRCX?

RICH

At today's price, Lam Research Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 61.8% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 13.55% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 19.6% a year, so the market is asking for 42.1 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis LRCX looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
61.8%
Historical FCF CAGR
19.6%
Growth gap
+42.1 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
13.55%
Beta
1.74

Behaviour On Record

What LRCX's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
53.8% 87th pct
Below its peak
-33.6%
vs 200-day average
+7.8%
Up days (1y)
53%

Lam Research Corporation is currently running 53.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against LRCX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 87th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 34.3%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

LRCX is trading -33.6% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -23.0%, and the deepest was -56.8% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +7.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 38th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year LRCX closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, LRCX finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -0.8% and an average of +1.3%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +8.3% on average, its weakest August at -2.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: LRCX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 188 of 3,267 sessions (5.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.5% and -6.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, LRCX moved an average of 6.9% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.8% and a largest of +13.6%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against LRCX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of LRCX's sector?

Lam Research Corporation sits in the Technology sector, currently ranked 1st of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading).

Sector rank
#1 of 11
Sector state
Leading
Sector rotation score
90

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for LRCX?

CallsPuts

For Lam Research Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 5 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 0.89), with at-the-money implied volatility around 52.4%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±6.5% move by that expiry — a range of about $261.12–$297.38.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.89
ATM implied volatility
52.4%
Total open interest
19,053
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±6.5% ($261.12–$297.38)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on LRCX?

UBS most recently reiterated its rating on Lam Research Corporation to Buy on Sep 1, 2026 with a price target of $425 (from $435). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
UBS — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 1, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$435 → $425
Aug 25, 2026MizuhoMaintainedOutperform$370 → $365
Jul 30, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$404 → $367
Jul 30, 2026B. Riley SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$385 → $350
Jul 30, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$450 → $350
Jul 30, 2026NeedhamReiteratedBuy$390
Jul 30, 2026JefferiesMaintainedBuy$315 → $335
Jul 20, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedOutperform$300 → $355
Jul 10, 2026StifelMaintainedBuy$325 → $425
Jul 10, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$300 → $390
Jul 9, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$340 → $400
Jul 9, 2026MizuhoMaintainedOutperform$380 → $400

LRCX Competitive Positioning

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) is tracked alongside these names in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

LRCX is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.