DailyIQ
|
Sector:Basic MaterialsAll sectors
Last updated 3 minutes ago

MOS·The Mosaic Company

$.
+. (+.%)
After Hours
High
$23.16
Open
$22.49
Market Cap
7.15B
52W High
$38.23
Low
$22.29
P. Close
$22.61
P/E
158.99
52W Low
$20.89
Fwd P/E
123.45
Mean Target
$26.98
Technical Score (1D)
23
SELL
News Sentiment
47
MIXED
Mosaic reported a Q1 net loss of $257.6 million, a stark contrast to last year's profit. The company also withdrew its full-year 2026 phosphate production guidance, citing a reassessment of operating rates due to shifting raw material markets. This withdrawal introduces significant uncertainty regarding a core profit driver for MOS, impacting its investment narrative. Investors will be watching for updated guidance and clarity on the impact of raw material market shifts on future production and profitability.
Earnings Summary
The Mosaic Company is a global producer and distributor of phosphate and potash, essential crop nutrients for fertilizers, operating with a vertically integrated business model from mine to market. Within the Basic Materials sector, specifically the Agricultural Inputs industry, Mosaic's performance is tied to agricultural cycles, commodity prices, and global demand for fertilizers. Recent quarterly results present a challenging trend in earnings per share (EPS) against analyst expectations. For Q1 2026, Mosaic reported an actual EPS of $0.05, significantly missing the estimate of $0.31, with revenue at $2.998 billion, slightly above the estimate of $2.926 billion. This follows a pattern of mixed performance; the company beat estimates in Q1 2025 ($0.49 vs $0.45) and Q3 2025 ($1.04 vs $0.95), but missed in Q4 2025 ($0.22 vs $0.47) and Q4 2024 ($0.45 vs $0.57). Revenue trends have also been inconsistent, with misses in Q4 2025 and Q4 2024, but beats in Q1 2025, Q2 2025, Q3 2025, and Q1 2026. Historically, Mosaic's year-over-year revenue growth has fluctuated, and EPS has shown a pattern of inconsistency against analyst targets, with notable misses in recent quarters like Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Recent news indicates analyst recalibrations, with Barclays lowering its price target to $26 and Scotiabank to $30, while maintaining ratings. This suggests a more cautious near-term outlook from some analysts, despite an overall 'overweight' average rating and mean price target. Investors should watch for Mosaic's upcoming forward guidance and commentary on market conditions, particularly in light of sustained high long-term Treasury yields which may favor tangible asset producers, and monitor the company's ability to meet revised analyst expectations and recover from recent EPS misses.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.10$0.22$0.55$0.87$1.19Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$0.18 - -
Q1'26$0.31$0.05-83.9%
Q4'25$0.47$0.22-53.3%
Q3'25$0.95$1.04+9.4%
Q2'25$0.72$0.51-28.9%
Q1'25$0.45$0.49+10.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.5B$2.8B$3.0B$3.3B$3.6BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$3.1B - -
Q1'26$2.9B$3.0B+2.5%
Q4'25$3.1B$3.0B-4.3%
Q3'25 - $3.5B -
Q2'25 - $3.0B -
Q1'25 - $2.6B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

MOS Stock Snapshot

MOS is currently trading at $22.64, giving The Mosaic Company a market cap of 7.15B and a P/E ratio of 159.0. Today's range spans $22.29–$23.16, with shares opening at $22.49 and moving up $0.03 (0.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 23/100 (SELL) with a news sentiment reading of 47/100.

Over the past year MOS has traded between $20.89 and $38.23 - the current price is +8.4% off the 52-week low and -40.8% from the high. 26 analysts cover the stock with a Hold consensus and a mean 12-month target of $26.98 (range $19.00–$35.00), implying upside of +19.2%.

MOS is at $22.64 (near 52-week lows within $20.89–$38.23), carrying a SELL technical signal (23/100) and neutral sentiment (47/100). (P/E: 159.0) At 7.15B in Basic Materials market cap, a non-bullish setup doesn't necessarily mean fundamental deterioration - sometimes it means the stock is in a dead money phase where patience is the only viable strategy. Tracking volume alongside price action is especially important at this tier.

Small-cap Basic Materials names with SELL technicals (23/100) and neutral sentiment (47/100) like MOS tend to experience sentiment-driven re-ratings more sharply in both directions. At $22.64 (near 52-week lows in $20.89–$38.23), the current setup suggests a stock that needs a material positive catalyst — not incremental improvement — to reverse the technical and sentiment readings that now define the 7.15B market cap trajectory.