DailyIQ
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Sector:Basic MaterialsAll sectors
Last updated 3 minutes ago

MOS·The Mosaic Company

$.
+. (+.%)
After Hours
High
$21.67
Open
$20.86
Market Cap
6.75B
52W High
$37.57
Low
$20.77
P. Close
$21.51
P/E
150.02
52W Low
$19.80
Fwd P/E
11.30
DailyIQ Est.
$27.56
Technical Score (1D)
32
SELL
News Sentiment
-
NO DATA
BNP Paribas trimmed Mosaic’s price target to $27 from $29 while keeping an outperform rating, reflecting a modest re‑valuation in light of recent market dynamics and signaling that the bank expects the stock to trade slightly lower in the near term. Morgan Stanley followed suit, cutting its target to $26 from $28 and maintaining an equal‑weight rating, citing rising input costs and a softer fertilizer‑demand outlook that could temper short‑term growth and prompt a more cautious stance. BMO Capital also lowered its target to $30 from $31, keeping an outperform rating, which underscores a broader consensus that Mosaic’s valuation is tightening amid market volatility and that the company’s fundamentals remain solid. Argus Research’s latest assessment highlights commodity‑price trends, regulatory developments, and competitive dynamics as key drivers for Mosaic, indicating that any shifts in these areas will directly influence the company’s performance over the next ten trading days. The Freedom Broker upgrade to Buy, with a $32 target, was driven by a rebound in sulfur supply that could lower input costs and lift phosphate gross margins, offering a potential upside if the supply recovery materializes. These mixed signals—price‑target cuts from major banks and a bullish upgrade tied to sulfur—create uncertainty about Mosaic’s near‑term valuation trajectory and suggest that the stock may experience heightened volatility. The consensus among the newer reports is that Mosaic’s cash generation and margin improvement remain solid, but the company faces headwinds from input‑cost inflation and demand softness in the fertilizer market. Over the next 1–10 trading days, traders should focus on Mosaic’s upcoming earnings release for confirmation of revenue, margin outlook, and any updates on commodity‑price exposure. Additionally, monitoring global sulfur pricing and any regulatory announcements that could affect fertilizer demand will be critical to gauge whether the bullish sulfur narrative holds.
Earnings Summary
Company Context: The Mosaic Company is a global producer and distributor of essential crop nutrients, primarily focused on phosphate and potash. Its operations span three segments, encompassing the mining and processing of these key ingredients used in fertilizers. Mosaic’s value proposition lies in its vertically integrated business model, controlling the production process from mine to market, offering a range of phosphate-based animal feed ingredients and industrial products. Sector: Basic Materials, Agricultural Inputs. Recent Quarterly Performance: In the most recent two quarters, Q3 2025 and Q4 2025, Mosaic reported EPS of $1.04 and $0.22, respectively, compared to $0.51 and $0.45 in Q1 and Q2 2025, indicating a sharp decline in earnings after a high in Q3. Revenue grew from $3.4521 B in Q3 2025 to $2.9737 B in Q4 2025, a 13.5% drop, while it rose from $2.6209 B in Q1 2025 to $3.0057 B in Q2 2025, a 14.5% increase. Mosaic beat analyst estimates in Q1 2025 and Q3 2025 but missed in Q4 2024, Q2 2025, Q4 2025, and Q1 2026, showing an alternating pattern of beats and misses. Historical Streak Analysis: Year‑over‑year revenue has been relatively flat, rising modestly from $2.8159 B in Q4 2024 to $2.9737 B in Q4 2025 and then to $2.998 B in Q1 2026, while EPS has been volatile, falling from $0.45 in Q4 2024 to $0.22 in Q4 2025 and then to $0.05 in Q1 2026. The company has consistently beat or missed estimates, with no clear trend toward sustained earnings growth. Recent News Context: Analysts have trimmed Mosaic’s price targets amid concerns about input cost inflation and a slower demand outlook for fertilizers, while some upgrades hinge on a potential sulfur supply normalization that could lift margins. The market is watching how commodity price swings and regulatory changes will affect Mosaic’s profitability. Forward‑Looking Watch Points: Investors should monitor the company’s upcoming earnings for guidance on margin outlook, input cost management, and any updates on sulfur supply dynamics, as well as global fertilizer demand indicators that could validate or invalidate the recent valuation adjustments.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.10$0.22$0.55$0.87$1.19Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$0.18 - -
Q1'26$0.31$0.05-83.9%
Q4'25$0.47$0.22-53.3%
Q3'25$0.95$1.04+9.4%
Q2'25$0.72$0.51-28.9%
Q1'25$0.45$0.49+10.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.5B$2.8B$3.0B$3.3B$3.6BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$3.1B - -
Q1'26$2.9B$3.0B+2.5%
Q4'25$3.1B$3.0B-4.3%
Q3'25 - $3.5B -
Q2'25 - $3.0B -
Q1'25 - $2.6B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

MOS Stock Snapshot

MOS is currently trading at $21.51, giving The Mosaic Company a market cap of 6.75B and a P/E ratio of 150.0. Today's range spans $20.77–$21.67, with shares opening at $20.86 and moving up $0.00 (0.0%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 32/100 (SELL).

Over the past year MOS has traded between $19.80 and $37.57 - the current price is +8.6% off the 52-week low and -42.7% from the high. 27 analysts cover the stock with a Hold consensus and a mean 12-month target of $27.19 (range $19.00–$35.00), implying upside of +26.4%.

The bid/ask spread on MOS widens when the technical picture is non-constructive - at 6.75B in Basic Materials market cap, SELL signals (32/100) with neutral sentiment (-/100) reduce market maker willingness to provide tight liquidity. Price: $21.51 (near 52-week lows in $19.80–$37.57). (P/E: 150.0) This isn't just a trading cost - wider spreads signal reduced conviction from participants closest to the order flow, which is often an early warning that the bearish setup has more room to run than the score alone suggests.

Small-cap Basic Materials names with SELL technicals (32/100) and neutral sentiment (-/100) like MOS tend to experience sentiment-driven re-ratings more sharply in both directions. At $21.51 (near 52-week lows in $19.80–$37.57), the current setup suggests a stock that needs a material positive catalyst — not incremental improvement — to reverse the technical and sentiment readings that now define the 6.75B market cap trajectory.