MOS·The Mosaic Company

Realized volatility (21d)

37.0% 52nd pct

Below its peak

-76.3%

vs 200-day average

-23.4%

Up days (1y)

43%

The Mosaic Company is currently running 37.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MOS's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 52nd percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 36.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MOS is trading -76.3% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -40.5%, and the deepest was -66.9% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -23.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 10th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year MOS closed higher on 43% of sessions, and it is currently 5 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, MOS finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +1.0% and an average of +0.1%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +2.9% on average, its weakest March at -4.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MOS has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 137 of 3,266 sessions (4.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +8.0% and -9.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MOS moved an average of 3.6% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +2.8% and a largest of +5.0%.

All figures computed from 3,267 daily closes between 2013-10-14 and 2026-10-09, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MOS's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.