MA·Mastercard Incorporated

Realized volatility (21d)

19.2% 45th pct

Below its peak

-1.7%

vs 200-day average

+10.7%

Up days (1y)

50%

Mastercard Incorporated is currently running 19.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MA's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 45th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 20.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MA is trading -1.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -16.4%, and the deepest was -39.8% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +10.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 69th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year MA closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 5 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, MA finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +2.0% and an average of +0.7%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +3.9% on average, its weakest March at -1.7%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MA has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 56 of 3,266 sessions (1.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.7% and -11.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MA moved an average of 0.9% in the session after earnings, closing higher 0 of those 3 times, with a median move of -0.5% and a largest of -1.8%.

All figures computed from 3,267 daily closes between 2013-10-14 and 2026-10-09, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MA's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.