XPO·XPO, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

26.3% 9th pct

Below its peak

-20.7%

vs 200-day average

-6.5%

Up days (1y)

50%

XPO, Inc. is currently running 26.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against XPO's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 9th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 40.3%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

XPO is trading -20.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -36.6%, and the deepest was -60.5% in 2018. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -6.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 26th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year XPO closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, XPO finished the month higher 9 of 13 times, with a median return of +5.3% and an average of +3.0%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +8.7% on average, its weakest March at -2.8%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: XPO has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 312 of 3,267 sessions (9.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.4% and -41.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-13, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against XPO's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.