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WSO·Watsco, Inc.

$306.98
-4.16 (-1.34%)
High
$314.65
Open
$307.34
Market Cap
12.59B
52W High
$459.66
Low
$301.25
P. Close
$306.98
P/E
26.81
52W Low
$273.00
Fwd P/E
24.14
DailyIQ Est.
$334.03
Inst. Own.
72.2%
Short Interest
11.44%
Days to Cover
8.7
Div. Yield
4.15%
Next Ex-Div
~Jan 16
Div. Growth
12+ yrs
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Oct 27, 2026tone +3.3 vs prior release · 123 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
18
BEARISH
News Sentiment
80
BULLISH
On Nov 3, Comfort Systems USA reported a 90 percent year‑over‑year increase in backlog to $17.8 billion, driven largely by organic growth and an 85 percent rise in same‑store backlog from data‑center and industrial customers. The company said the backlog jump was supported by expanding modular operations and a projected 6 million square‑foot capacity for 2027. Management projected mid‑20 percent revenue growth for 2027, citing the backlog expansion as clear upside to the company’s growth trajectory. Labor constraints and execution risk were identified as potential headwinds that could affect the company’s ability to meet demand. The report highlighted that the backlog increase provides a strong foundation for the company’s future performance.
LOW TARGET
$315 +2.6%
5 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$348 +13.3%
15 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$441 +43.7%
3 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$315.00 - $441.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
2/1/13/5/2
DAILYIQ EST.
$334.03 (+8.8%)
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Industrial Distribution
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Website
Symbol
WSO
Description
Watsco, Inc. is a leading distributor of HVAC/R (heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration) equipment, parts, and supplies, strategically serving the North American, Latin American, and Caribbean markets. The company's core business focuses on providing essential components and systems for both residential and commercial applications, including air conditioners, furnaces, and specialized refrigeration units. Watsco's comprehensive product offerings extend beyond equipment to encompass a wide array of replacement parts, from compressors and coils to essential supplies like thermostats and refrigerants. By catering to contractors and dealers involved in the replacement and new construction segments, Watsco establishes itself as a critical link in the HVAC/R supply chain. Established in 1956, the company's long-standing presence and Miami, Florida headquarters underscore its enduring commitment to the industry.
65/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✕Revenue declining year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
28.0%
Net Margin
6.9%
Revenue CAGR
8.9%
Current Ratio
4.12x
Debt / Equity
0.13x
Return on Equity
17.9%
Earnings Summary
In Q3 2026 the company posted revenue of $2.22 billion, matching expectations and marking a 7.4% YoY increase, while EPS of $3.77 fell 9.7% below consensus, reflecting margin compression from 11.4% to 10.1%; the prior quarter, Q2 2026, saw revenue of $2.10 billion and EPS of $4.00 versus an estimate of $4.39, indicating a slight earnings miss despite revenue growth. Over the past few quarters, Watsco has consistently delivered revenue growth but has struggled to meet EPS estimates, with margin pressure attributed to cost shifts and technology investments. Recent developments include a record third‑quarter sales announcement, a new $750 million credit facility, and strategic acquisitions of Jackson Supply and The Granite Group, all aimed at expanding revenue streams while acknowledging short‑term profitability impacts.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.27$2.15$3.03$3.91$4.79Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$1.90 - -
Q3'26$4.14$3.77-9.0%
Q2'26$4.39$4.00-8.8%
Q4'25$1.90$1.68-11.6%
Q4'24$2.19$2.37+8.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.5B$1.7B$1.9B$2.1B$2.3BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$1.8B - -
Q3'26$2.2B$2.2B-0.6%
Q2'26$2.2B$2.1B-3.0%
Q4'25$1.6B$1.6B-3.6%
Q4'24 - $1.8B -

Market Data

WSO Stock Snapshot

BEARISH18/100
$306.98−$4.16 (1.3%)
Market cap
12.59B
P/E ratio
26.8
Day range
$301.25 – $314.65
News sentiment
80/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$347.70 (+13.3%)
Consensus
Hold · 23 analysts
52-week range+12.4% off low · -33.2% from high
$273.00$459.66
Price $306.98 DailyIQ Est. $334.03

The chart on WSO has not stabilised: price is in the lower half of its 52-week range and the trend is still down. In Industrials, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into WSO?

RICH

At today's price, Watsco, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 7.6% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 8.14% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 3.4% a year, so the market is asking for 4.2 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis WSO looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
7.6%
Growth trend
3.4%
Growth gap
+4.2 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
8.14%
Beta
0.80

Behaviour On Record

What WSO's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
41.2% 93rd pct
Below its peak
-44.7%
vs 200-day average
-13.9%
Up days (1y)
48%

Watsco, Inc. is currently running 41.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against WSO's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 93rd percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 22.7%.

WSO is trading -44.7% below its running peak. Across 13 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -16.7%, and the deepest was -39.0% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -13.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 7th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year WSO closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On November specifically: over 13 years of records, WSO finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +0.7% and an average of +2.6%. Its strongest month historically has been June at +2.7% on average, its weakest December at -0.9%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: WSO has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 82 of 3,268 sessions (2.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.7% and -12.7%.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, WSO moved an average of 2.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 0 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.6% and a largest of -3.3%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against WSO's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of WSO's sector?

Watsco, Inc. sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 8th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#8 of 12
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
27

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for WSO?

CallsPuts

For Watsco, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-11-20, 14 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.13), with at-the-money implied volatility around 1.6%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±0.3% move by that expiry — a range of about $303.04–$304.90.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-20)
0.13
ATM implied volatility
1.6%
Total open interest
3,257
Expected move by 2026-11-20
±0.3% ($303.04–$304.90)

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect WSO to earn?

Analysts expect Watsco, Inc. to earn $11.50 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $19.80 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2029, from 2 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$1.87$1.38 to $2.229$1.81B10
Mar 2027$1.92$1.86 to $2.005$1.75B7
Jun 2027$4.38$4.23 to $4.584--
Sep 2027$4.43$4.09 to $4.594--
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$11.50$11.00 to $11.977$7.67B11
Dec 2027$12.84$12.47 to $13.178$8.45B10
Dec 2028$15.50$13.75 to $19.215~$10.08B-
Dec 2029$19.80$16.44 to $23.152~$12.87B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on WSO?

Mizuho most recently reiterated its rating on Watsco, Inc. to Neutral on Oct 15, 2026 with a price target of $325 (from $350). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Mizuho: Neutral
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 15, 2026MizuhoMaintainedNeutral$350 → $325
Oct 12, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$370 → $330
Aug 17, 2026Stephens & Co.ReiteratedOverweight$485
Jul 30, 2026DA DavidsonMaintainedNeutral$385 → $330
Jul 28, 2026BairdMaintainedOutperform$460 → $420
Jul 10, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$370 → $405
Jun 16, 2026DA DavidsonInitiatedNeutral$385
Apr 29, 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainedOverweight$475 → $485
Feb 19, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$370 → $400
Jan 16, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$360 → $370
Jan 14, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$460 → $370
Jan 5, 2026MizuhoMaintainedNeutral$400 → $370

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Watsco, Inc.'s latest earnings release say?

Filed Oct 27, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Tone71.4/ 100+3.3 vs prior release
Hedging words0.82per 100 words+0.14 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 50–77

Most important lines

  1. 1

    These legendary companies are expected to bolster annual revenue by approximately 10% and broaden Watsco’s geographic reach, product mix, as well as end-market and customer mix.

    New this quarter
  2. 2

    Gross profit increased 3% to a record $586 million

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    Looking ahead, Watsco today is a meaningfully larger company, having added 107 locations and $730 million in annualized revenue to our network through the acquisitions of Jackson and Granite.

    New this quarter

Peers & ETF holders

WSO peers & ETF holders

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about WSO?

WSO rose 6.8% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 0 and 96 from Oct 7 to Oct 16, then jumped to 75 on Oct 20.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 6 to Nov 6
$280$300$320Oct 6Oct 7: tone 50Oct 8Oct 9: tone 49Oct 12: tone 79Oct 13: tone 31Oct 14: tone 96Oct 15: tone 27Oct 16: tone 0Oct 19Oct 20: tone 75Oct 21: tone 96Oct 22: tone 85Oct 23: tone 79Oct 26: tone 32Oct 27: tone 44Oct 28: tone 53Oct 29Oct 30: tone 19Nov 2: tone 50Nov 3: tone 80Nov 4Nov 5: tone 50Nov 6Oct 6News toneNov 6123
  1. Oct 22 +7.2%same day: Watsco Completes $750 Million Unsecured Senior Credit Facility
  2. Oct 26 -4.6%same day: Watsco (WSO) to report earnings tomorrow: here is what to expect
  3. Nov 2 +4.3%same day: Watsco: A Great Opportunity For Long-Term Dividend Growth Investors

Technical analysis

How strong is WSO's momentum right now?

On the daily chart WSO ranks at the 18th percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bearish reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling WSO?

84 of the 175 tracked managers added to WSO in their latest 13F and 84 trimmed. Together they own 72.2% of the company, worth $12.1B. BlackRock and Capital International Investors alone hold 18.7%.

84adding84trimming7unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of WSO
  1. $1.7B positionAdded 2.5% last quarter
  2. $1.5B positionAdded 0.2% last quarter
  3. $792.7M positionAdded 0.2% last quarter
  4. $737.8M positionAdded 1.1% last quarter
  5. $710.6M positionTrimmed 9.8% last quarter
  6. $658.1M positionAdded 0.7% last quarter
  7. $607.9M positionAdded 8.9% last quarter
  8. $551.3M positionAdded 3.9% last quarter
  9. $472.7M positionTrimmed 14.7% last quarter
  10. $470.7M positionTrimmed 0.7% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading WSO?

2 members of Congress disclosed 4 WSO trades between Oct 29, 2024 and Sep 23, 2025: 2 buys and 2 sells, about $32.0K in estimated value.

BuysSellsNovJan ’25MarMayJulSep
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

What stands out

Click one to highlight its trades in the chart

Discover more

How has WSO done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 6, WSO returned −29.1%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 12 did better, led by MMM at +26.6%.

Change since May 6, through Nov 6
−60%−40%−20%0%+20%+40%May 6JunJulAugSepOctNov 6MMM +26.6%WSO −29.1%CAT −40.0%