AA·Alcoa Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

35.2% 16th pct

Below its peak

-54.1%

vs 200-day average

-25.0%

Up days (1y)

51%

Alcoa Corporation is currently running 35.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AA's own 10 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 16th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 49.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AA is trading -54.1% below its running peak. Across 9 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -46.0%, and the deepest was -74.6% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -25.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 17th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year AA closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 9 years of records, AA finished the month higher 6 of 9 times, with a median return of +2.0% and an average of -0.0%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +9.9% on average, its weakest June at -4.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AA has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 183 of 2,502 sessions (7.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +61.9% and -13.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,503 daily closes between 2016-10-18 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AA's own 10-year history, not a peer group or index.