DailyIQ
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Last updated9 minutes ago

AA·Alcoa Corporation

$41.48
-0.19 (-0.46%)
Overnight$41.46-0.02 (-0.05%)
High
$41.78
Open
$41.43
Market Cap
11.03B
52W High
$84.38
Low
$40.73
P. Close
$41.48
P/E
8.64
52W Low
$33.44
Fwd P/E
7.31
DailyIQ Est.
$62.87
Inst. Ownership
41.6%
Short Interest
4.41%
Days to Cover
2.9
Div. Yield
0.96%
Next Ex-Div
~Nov 3
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Jul 16, 2026Guidance lowered · tone +1.5 vs prior release · 63 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
9
BEARISH
News Sentiment
50
MIXED
AA is a momentum laggard on the 1D chart: a Technical Score of 9 with declining momentum and weak trend strength. The score ranks stocks against each other, so a reading this low says Alcoa Corporation has been one of the weaker performers in the universe, not that it is oversold. Sentiment at 50 is diverging from that weakness. $43.37 is the level a recovery would need to reclaim, and $39.20 is the next downside reference below $40.03. DailyIQ's indicator breakdown shows how individual readings such as RSI (neutral range) and MACD (bearish) look right now. Those readings are context only and do not feed the Technical Score, which ranks AA's momentum against the rest of the universe.
LOW TARGET
$48 +15.7%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$60 +45.4%
9 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$80 +92.8%
12 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$48.00 - $80.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
6/10/5/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$62.87 (+51.5%)
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
30,653 shares
$1.5M
Hastings AndrewEVP & Gen. Counsel
Tax Withholding1,200 shares2026-09-15
Hastings AndrewEVP & Gen. Counsel
Award/Grant2,638 shares2026-09-15
Hastings AndrewEVP & Gen. Counsel
Tax Withholding2,525 shares2026-09-15
Bacchi RenatoEVP & Chief Commercial Officer
Sell700 shares2026-08-31
Jones Tammi AEVP & CHRO
Sell15,628 shares2026-08-27
View full insider trading history →
75/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Net Margin
9.0%
Revenue CAGR
-0.2%
Current Ratio
1.44x
Debt / Equity
0.40x
Return on Equity
18.9%
View full financials →

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.29$0.22$0.72$1.22$1.72Q3'25Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$1.49 - -
Q3'25$-0.05$-0.02+63.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.9B$3.2B$3.5B$3.8B$4.1BQ3'25Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$3.9B - -
Q3'25 - $3.0B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

AA Stock Snapshot

BEARISH9/100
$41.46−$0.02 (0.0%)
Market cap
11.03B
P/E ratio
8.6
Day range
$40.73 – $41.78
News sentiment
50/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$60.31 (+45.5%)
Consensus
Buy · 23 analysts
52-week range+24.0% off low · -50.9% from high
$33.44$84.38
Price $41.46 DailyIQ Est. $62.87

The signals on AA lean bearish, and the range position backs that up. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into AA?

RICH

At today's price, Alcoa Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 16.9% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 11.19% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at -7.1% a year, so the market is asking for 24.0 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis AA looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
16.9%
Historical FCF CAGR
-7.1%
Growth gap
+24.0 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
11.19%
Beta
1.43

Behaviour On Record

What AA's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
30.0% 4th pct
Below its peak
-55.5%
vs 200-day average
-27.1%
Up days (1y)
51%

Alcoa Corporation is currently running 30.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AA's own 10 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 4th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 49.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AA is trading -55.5% below its running peak. Across 9 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -46.0%, and the deepest was -74.6% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -27.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 14th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year AA closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 9 years of records, AA finished the month higher 6 of 9 times, with a median return of +2.0% and an average of -0.0%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +9.9% on average, its weakest June at -4.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AA has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 184 of 2,506 sessions (7.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +61.9% and -13.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,507 daily closes between 2016-10-18 and 2026-10-09, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AA's own 10-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of AA's sector?

Alcoa Corporation sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 8th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#8 of 12
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
0

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for AA?

CallsPuts

For Alcoa Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 2 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 0.94), with at-the-money implied volatility around 84.1%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±6.2% move by that expiry — a range of about $39.65–$44.93.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
0.94
ATM implied volatility
84.1%
Total open interest
44,279
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±6.2% ($39.65–$44.93)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on AA?

JP Morgan most recently reiterated its rating on Alcoa Corporation to Neutral on Oct 7, 2026 with a price target of $50 (from $52). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
JP Morgan — Neutral
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 7, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$52 → $50
Oct 7, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$53 → $50
Sep 22, 2026Freedom BrokerMaintainedBuy$64 → $76
Sep 18, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$71 → $60
Jul 22, 2026Argus ResearchMaintainedBuy$73 → $55
Jul 17, 2026BMO CapitalMaintainedMarket Perform$60 → $55
Jul 17, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$55 → $52
Jul 17, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$72 → $71
Jul 9, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$70 → $55
Jul 9, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedUnderperform$57 → $51
Jul 9, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$71 → $72
Jul 8, 2026Morgan StanleyDowngradeOverweight → Equal-Weight$79 → $53

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Alcoa Corporation's latest earnings release say?

Filed Jul 16, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Guidance lowered
Tone55.5/ 100+1.5 vs prior release
Hedging words0.82per 100 words+0.07 vs prior release
Tone, last 2 releasesScale 49–69

Most important lines

  1. 1

    The Company has decreased its 2026 projection for alumina production to range between 9.5 and 9.6 million metric tons, a reduction of between 0.2 and 0.3 million metric tons from the prior projection.

    Guidance loweredNew this quarterNegative tone
  2. 2

    The Company has also decreased its 2026 projection for alumina shipments to range between 11.5 and 11.6 million metric tons, a reduction of between 0.3 and 0.4 million metric tons from the prior projection.

    Guidance loweredNew this quarterNegative tone
  3. 3

    Revenue increased to a quarterly record of $4 billion, a 24 percent increase sequentially

    New this quarter

Scores describe the release's wording. They are not a forecast.

Read all 63 scored lines →

ETF holders

ETFs holding AA

Top ETF holdersWeight

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

50/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
MIXED

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
The article provides a brief overview of analyst estimates for Alcoa’s Q3 earnings.
What did this article say?
Morgan Stanley analyst Carlos De Alba reduced Alcoa’s (NYSE:AA) price target from $53 to $50 while keeping the stock on an equal‑weight recommendation. The downgrade reflects concerns over the company’s earnings outlook and the broader market environment. The adjustment signals a modest negative view for AA’s near‑term valuation, though the firm remains neutral on the stock’s long‑term prospects.
What did this article say?
Alcoa is projected to report Q3 earnings per share of $1.47 and revenue of $3.75 billion, both up from the prior year. Analysts have issued mixed ratings, with several downgrades and price‑target reductions reflecting concerns about margin pressure and commodity price volatility. The company’s guidance remains unchanged, but the market reaction has been subdued, indicating that the earnings beat may not translate into a significant upside for investors.
What did this article say?
Alcoa (AA) completed a debt financing package to fund its planned acquisition of South32’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. The capital raise provides the necessary liquidity for the purchase, though the deal remains contingent on shareholder and regulatory approvals. The move strengthens Alcoa’s position across the aluminum value chain and signals confidence in long‑term demand for key materials.
What did this article say?
Alcoa Corporation has closed a $2.6 billion senior note offering, split between 6.625% notes due 2034 and 6.875% notes due 2036, to finance the cash consideration for acquiring South32’s bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets. The debt is issued by Alcoa’s wholly‑owned subsidiaries and is guaranteed by Alcoa itself, providing a stable, long‑term funding source. The transaction expands Alcoa’s upstream footprint and positions the company for higher production volumes and potential cost synergies. The financing structure is expected to improve liquidity and support future capital expenditures.
What did this article say?
Wells Fargo’s analyst Timna Tanners has lowered Alcoa’s (AA) price target from $71 to $60 while keeping an Overweight rating. The downgrade reflects a reassessment of the company’s valuation, suggesting a more cautious outlook for the next 12 months. The move may pressure AA’s stock price and signals that analysts expect slower growth or higher risk than previously assumed.
What did this article say?
Alcoa Corporation has priced $2.6 billion of acquisition financing through two subsidiaries, issuing $1.5 billion of 6.625% notes due 2034 and $1.1 billion of 6.875% notes due 2036. The combined coupon payments total $175 million annually, providing a steady cash flow to support the $3.1 billion cash portion of its South32 asset acquisition. The notes are guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis, giving Alcoa a secure funding structure for the transaction. This financing move strengthens Alcoa’s balance sheet and enables the company to complete the South32 deal without diluting equity.
What did this article say?
Alcoa Corporation has announced that it will release its third‑quarter 2026 financial results on October 15, 2026, following the market close, and will host a conference call the same day at 5:00 p.m. EDT. The earnings press release, presentation, and call details will be posted on Alcoa’s investor website and X account. No guidance or performance data are disclosed at this time, making the announcement a routine schedule update with no immediate impact on valuation expectations.
What did this article say?
Alcoa’s CFO Molly Beerman highlighted that the company is extending its second‑quarter momentum into Q3, driven by record production at five plants and strong pricing realization. Demand from North American and European customers remains robust, especially amid uncertainty over Middle Eastern supply. The firm also noted a potential tariff upside that could further support aluminum prices. These factors suggest a material upside for Alcoa’s earnings outlook.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

9
BEARISH
Momentum rank against about 1,000 stocks and ETFs for this timeframe.
Unlock full technicals
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Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership
25 tracked managers · $5.75B combined position · 13 adding, 11 trimming, 1 unchanged (latest 13F filings)
ManagerTrendShares Held% of Co.Position ValueFiled
BlackRock, Inc.▲ Buy29,315,74211.02%$1.53B2026-08-07
Vanguard Group Inc▼ Sell25,126,1939.45%$1.34B2026-01-29
FMR LLC (Fidelity)▲ Buy16,996,1066.39%$886.18M2026-08-13
Geode Capital Management, LLC▼ Sell5,829,9452.19%$304.06M2026-08-12
AQR Capital Management LLC▼ Sell4,086,6911.54%$213.08M2026-08-14
Morgan Stanley▼ Sell3,588,6511.35%$187.11M2026-08-13
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.▼ Sell3,585,8571.35%$186.97M2026-08-14
Northern Trust Corp▲ Buy2,525,5330.95%$131.68M2026-08-13
Millennium Management LLC▲ Buy2,333,8110.88%$121.72M2026-08-14
Invesco Ltd.▼ Sell2,147,8690.81%$111.99M2026-08-14
JPMorgan Chase & Co▼ Sell2,018,3710.76%$108.55M2026-08-12
Norges Bank▲ Buy1,983,0720.75%$103.40M2026-08-12
Marshall Wace, LLP▲ Buy1,390,1190.52%$72.48M2026-08-13
Temasek Holdings (Private) Ltd• Hold1,300,6470.49%$67.82M2026-08-07
Citadel Advisors LLC▲ Buy1,216,1870.46%$63.41M2026-09-02
AllianceBernstein L.P.▼ Sell948,2760.36%$62.90M2026-08-14
Goldman Sachs Group Inc▲ Buy789,9350.30%$41.19M2026-08-14
Balyasny Asset Management L.P.▲ Buy757,3890.28%$39.49M2026-08-14
Man Group plc▲ Buy743,0610.28%$38.74M2026-08-14
Bank of America Corp▼ Sell674,4860.25%$35.17M2026-08-14
Gotham Asset Management, LLC▼ Sell607,6280.23%$31.68M2026-08-14
Renaissance Technologies LLC▼ Sell565,6960.21%$29.50M2026-08-13
Wellington Management Group LLP▲ Buy488,9510.18%$25.49M2026-08-14
Susquehanna International Group, LLP▲ Buy280,0060.11%$14.60M2026-08-14
Citigroup Inc▲ Buy241,8220.09%$12.61M2026-08-03
Q2 2026 flow:11.17M sh bought ($582.63M)4.51M sh sold ($237.30M)net +6.66M sh (+$345.34M)
View full institutional holdings history →
Congressional Trading Activity
10 disclosed trades · ~$430.0K est. traded value · 4 buys, 6 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Julia LetlowHouseLA05▲ Buy$1K - $15K2024-10-232026-01-13
Tommy TubervilleSenateAL▼ Sell$100K - $250K2021-10-182021-11-10
Tommy TubervilleSenateAL▼ Sell$1K - $15K2021-10-152021-11-10
Tommy TubervilleSenateAL▲ Buy$1K - $15K2021-07-292021-08-13
Tommy TubervilleSenateAL▼ Sell$50K - $100K2021-07-192021-08-13
Tommy TubervilleSenateAL▼ Sell$50K - $100K2021-04-192021-07-23
Tommy TubervilleSenateAL▼ Sell$15K - $50K2021-03-162021-07-23
Tommy TubervilleSenateAL▲ Buy$1K - $15K2021-03-162021-07-23
Tommy TubervilleSenateAL▼ Sell$1K - $15K2021-01-062021-07-23
Tommy TubervilleSenateAL▲ Buy$15K - $50K2021-01-062021-07-23
View full congressional trading history →

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