APP|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $4.35 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $3.76 | $3.76 | +0.1% |
| Q1'26 | $3.43 | $3.56 | +3.6% |
| Q4'25 | $3.21 | $3.24 | +0.8% |
| Q4'24 | $1.26 | $1.73 | +37.5% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $2.1B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $2.0B | $1.9B | -1.6% |
| Q1'26 | $1.8B | $1.8B | +3.3% |
| Q4'25 | $1.7B | $1.7B | -3.7% |
| Q4'24 | - | $1.4B | - |
APP|Monthly Returns
Market Data
APP Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 108.41B
- P/E ratio
- 24.6
- Day range
- $323.80 – $334.46
- News sentiment
- 56/100 · Neutral
- Analyst target
- $508.39 (+53.3%)
- Consensus
- Buy · 39 analysts
APP is in a holding pattern - neither trend nor momentum has taken control. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into APP?
At today's price, Applovin Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 77.7% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 14.45% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 61.2% a year, so the market is asking for 16.4 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis APP looks priced above what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- 77.7%
- Historical FCF CAGR
- 61.2%
- Growth gap
- +16.4 pts
- Verdict
- RICH
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 14.45%
- Beta
- 1.96
Behaviour On Record
What APP's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 34.2% 3rd pct
- Below its peak
- -55.4%
- vs 200-day average
- -31.8%
- Up days (1y)
- 47%
Applovin Corporation is currently running 34.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against APP's own 5 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 3rd percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 67.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.
APP is trading -55.4% below its running peak. Across 4 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -42.6%, and the deepest was -90.2% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.
Price sits -31.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 24th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year APP closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.
On September specifically: over 6 years of records, APP finished the month higher 3 of 6 times, with a median return of +1.5% and an average of +11.8%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +26.5% on average, its weakest January at -5.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.
Overnight risk is measurable too: APP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 188 of 1,360 sessions (13.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +8.9% and -8.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.
Across the last 3 dated reports on file, APP moved an average of 7.8% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -3.9% and a largest of -14.7%.
All figures computed from 1,361 daily closes between 2021-04-15 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against APP's own 5-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of APP's sector?
Applovin Corporation sits in the Technology sector, currently ranked 6th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging). Within its narrower Software industry group, APP ranks 2nd of 15 tracked industries, leading.
- Sector rank
- #6 of 11
- Sector state
- Lagging
- Sector rotation score
- 50
- Industry rank
- #2 of 15
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on APP?
Morgan Stanley most recently reiterated its rating on Applovin Corporation to Overweight on Sep 14, 2026 with a price target of $450 (from $650). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 3 downgrades, a net bearish lean.
- Latest action
- Morgan Stanley — Overweight
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 3
- Net rating momentum
- -3
APP Competitive Positioning
- APPyou're hereApplovin Corporation$108.4B+0.03%
- OMCOmnicom Group Inc.$22.1B-0.01%
