APP·Applovin Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

43.9% 13th pct

Below its peak

-62.9%

vs 200-day average

-38.3%

Up days (1y)

44%

Applovin Corporation is currently running 43.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against APP's own 5 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 13th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 66.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

APP is trading -62.9% below its running peak. Across 4 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -42.6%, and the deepest was -90.2% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -38.3% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 19th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year APP closed higher on 44% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 6 years of records, APP finished the month higher 2 of 6 times, with a median return of -5.4% and an average of +3.8%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +26.5% on average, its weakest January at -5.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: APP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 188 of 1,381 sessions (13.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +8.9% and -8.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, APP moved an average of 7.8% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -3.9% and a largest of -14.7%.

All figures computed from 1,382 daily closes between 2021-04-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against APP's own 6-year history, not a peer group or index.