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OKTA·Okta, Inc.

$182.17
-7.67 (-4.04%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$182.95+0.78 (+0.43%)
High
$192.00
Open
$189.79
Market Cap
31.88B
52W High
$192.59
Low
$181.36
P. Close
$182.17
P/E
107.71
52W Low
$62.35
Fwd P/E
41.65
DailyIQ Est.
$195.70
Inst. Ownership
82.4%
Short Interest
4.41%
Days to Cover
1.7
Technical Score (1D)
86
BUY
News Sentiment
62
BULLISH
Okta’s latest data shows that its annual recurring revenue grew only 11.8% last year, a figure below market expectations, and analysts now project next‑year sales growth at 9.9%, a decline from the two‑year trend. This slowdown in top‑line momentum suggests that the company’s growth engine may be weakening, which could temper investor enthusiasm over the next 1–10 trading days. The company’s valuation remains modest at a 10‑times forward price‑to‑sales ratio, indicating limited upside if the growth trajectory stalls. Bernstein’s recent downgrade to Market Perform and the lift of its price target to $174 from $143 further signal a more cautious view of Okta’s prospects, implying that the market may reassess the stock’s valuation in the near term. The combined effect of weaker revenue growth and a more conservative analyst outlook could weigh on the stock’s short‑term performance. Investors should watch for any change in renewal rates or new customer acquisition that could alter the growth outlook, as this would directly address the underlying weakness. Additionally, monitoring how the market reacts to Bernstein’s rating change will be key, as it may trigger a broader reassessment of Okta’s valuation relative to peers. Finally, keep an eye on any updates from Okta’s management regarding cost controls or product expansion, which could mitigate the current headwinds and influence short‑term sentiment.
Earnings Summary
Okta, Inc. is a leading identity management provider offering cloud-based solutions such as Single Sign-On, Adaptive Multi-Factor Authentication, API access management, device access, and identity governance, serving customers worldwide. Operating in the technology sector’s software‑infrastructure niche, Okta focuses on simplifying digital identity and securing access across cloud and on‑premise environments. In Q4 2024, the company reported EPS of $0.78 versus an estimate of $0.736, and revenue of $682 million, a modest increase from the prior quarter. Q4 2026 EPS rose to $0.90 against an estimate of $0.864, while revenue of $761 million fell slightly below the $763.8 million estimate, indicating a deceleration in top‑line growth. The most recent Q2 2027 EPS of $1.05 beat the $0.964 estimate, and revenue of $805 million was marginally below the $808.9 million forecast, suggesting a mixed earnings trajectory. Historically, Okta has delivered year‑over‑year revenue growth in the high‑teens, with EPS consistently beating estimates in the last four quarters, though revenue has occasionally lagged guidance. Recent news highlights the launch of the Agent SSO product, an AI‑agent governance offering that now accounts for roughly 30 % of bookings and has secured multi‑million‑dollar AI deals, positioning Okta to accelerate adoption among its large customer base. Investors should watch for the company’s upcoming earnings guidance and any updates on the uptake of the Agent SSO product, as the pace of new bookings will determine whether the AI‑driven growth narrative holds. Key will be monitoring renewal rates of existing identity‑management subscriptions and any signs of increased competition that could temper momentum generated by the Agent SSO launch.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.69$0.79$0.89$1.00$1.10Q4'24Q4'26Q2'27Q3'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'27$0.93 - -
Q2'27$0.96$1.05+8.9%
Q4'26$0.86$0.90+4.2%
Q4'24$0.74$0.78+6.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$660M$708M$757M$806M$854MQ4'24Q4'26Q2'27Q3'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'27$832M - -
Q2'27$809M$805M-0.5%
Q4'26$764M$761M-0.4%
Q4'24 - $682M -

Market Data

OKTA Stock Snapshot

BUY86/100
$182.95+$0.78 (0.4%)
Market cap
31.88B
P/E ratio
107.7
Day range
$181.36 – $192.00
News sentiment
62/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$185.88 (+1.6%)
Consensus
Buy · 54 analysts
52-week range+193.4% off low · -5.0% from high
$62.35$192.59
Price $182.95 DailyIQ Est. $195.70

Trend, momentum and range position line up bullish on OKTA at the moment. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Behaviour On Record

What OKTA's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
96.7% 98th pct
Below its peak
-37.5%
vs 200-day average
+72.2%
Up days (1y)
52%

Okta, Inc. is currently running 96.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against OKTA's own 9 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 98th percentile an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 45.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

OKTA is trading -37.5% below its running peak. Across 8 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -33.3%, and the deepest was -79.9% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +72.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 100th percentile a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year OKTA closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 10 years of records, OKTA finished the month higher 4 of 10 times, with a median return of -3.6% and an average of -1.9%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +9.1% on average, its weakest October at -3.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: OKTA has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 162 of 2,374 sessions (6.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.2% and -10.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,375 daily closes between 2017-04-07 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against OKTA's own 9-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of OKTA's sector?

Okta, Inc. sits in the Technology sector, currently ranked 1st of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading). Within its narrower Software industry group, OKTA ranks 3rd of 15 tracked industries, leading.

Sector rank
#1 of 11
Sector state
Leading
Sector rotation score
90
Industry rank
#3 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for OKTA?

CallsPuts

For Okta, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 5 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 0.99), with at-the-money implied volatility around 57.7%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±6.6% move by that expiry — a range of about $177.71–$202.85.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.99
ATM implied volatility
57.7%
Total open interest
6,592
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±6.6% ($177.71–$202.85)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on OKTA?

B of A Securities most recently reiterated its rating on Okta, Inc. to Neutral on Sep 18, 2026 with a price target of $200 (from $170). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 4 upgrades against 1 downgrade, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
B of A SecuritiesNeutral
90-day upgrades
4
90-day downgrades
1
Net rating momentum
+3
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 18, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedNeutral$170 → $200
Sep 17, 2026BernsteinDowngradeOutperform → Market Perform$143 → $174
Sep 17, 2026BTIGMaintainedBuy$187 → $219
Sep 14, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$180 → $200
Aug 28, 2026SusquehannaMaintainedNeutral$110 → $185
Aug 28, 2026Goldman SachsMaintainedBuy$126 → $203
Aug 27, 2026MacquarieMaintainedOutperform$120 → $185
Aug 27, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$105 → $165
Aug 27, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$165 → $190
Aug 27, 2026MizuhoMaintainedNeutral$145 → $165
Aug 27, 2026Raymond JamesMaintainedOutperform$115 → $185
Aug 27, 2026B of A SecuritiesUpgradeUnderperform → Neutral$75 → $170

OKTA Competitive Positioning

Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is tracked alongside these names in Software - Infrastructure on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.