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FDX·FedEx Corporation

$303.55
-2.33 (-0.76%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$303.37-0.18 (-0.06%)
High
$310.35
Open
$305.41
Market Cap
71.83B
52W High
$345.61
Low
$301.99
P. Close
$303.55
P/E
16.20
52W Low
$177.17
Fwd P/E
14.56
DailyIQ Est.
$377.72
Inst. Ownership
37.4%
Short Interest
1.98%
Days to Cover
3.5
Technical Score (1D)
32
SELL
News Sentiment
47
MIXED
FedEx’s dividend remains lower than UPS’s, but the carrier’s payout is underpinned by a stronger free‑cash‑flow base, suggesting a more sustainable dividend profile over the next ten trading days. The lower yield may dampen short‑term income demand, yet the robust cash flow signals that FedEx can weather earnings volatility without cutting dividends. For traders, the key implication is that FedEx’s dividend stability could attract value‑oriented investors seeking lower risk, potentially supporting the stock’s price in a market that favors defensive plays. Meanwhile, UPS’s higher current yield continues to appeal to income‑focused portfolios, but its weaker cash‑flow foundation may raise concerns about future payout sustainability. The relative attractiveness of the two carriers will likely influence sector rotation between income and growth strategies. Watch for any FedEx earnings releases that confirm the cash‑flow trend, as a surprise dip could trigger a reevaluation of the dividend’s resilience. Also monitor UPS’s cash‑flow metrics; an improvement could shift the income‑yield trade‑off in its favor. Finally, keep an eye on broader freight market conditions, as rising fuel costs or supply‑chain disruptions could pressure both carriers’ cash flows and, by extension, their dividend prospects.
Earnings Summary
FedEx Corporation operates as a global leader in transportation and business services, delivering express delivery, freight transportation, and small‑package ground services while also offering e‑commerce and digital solutions such as printing and shipping management. The company’s integrated freight and logistics platform positions it within the broader industrials sector, where it competes on scale, network reach, and technology adoption. In the most recent two quarters, FedEx reported Q3 2026 EPS of $5.25 versus an estimate of $4.16, and Q4 2026 EPS of $6.31 versus $5.95, both beating consensus and reflecting a 15% and 6% EPS acceleration respectively; revenue also rose to $24.0 billion from $23.56 billion, a 1.6% increase, and outpaced the prior Q3 revenue of $22.244 billion. Compared to the preceding two quarters (Q1–Q2 2026), the company maintained a steady revenue growth trajectory while consistently exceeding EPS estimates in the last four quarters, indicating robust profitability despite modest revenue deceleration. Historically, FedEx has shown a YoY revenue growth rate hovering around 5–6% over the past three years, with EPS growth outpacing revenue growth in most periods; the company has frequently beat analyst estimates, particularly in the freight‑heavy quarters, while occasionally missing revenue targets during peak holiday seasons. Recent news highlights the launch of the Global Trade Navigator digital suite and the DRIVE and Network 2.0 cost‑saving initiatives, both of which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and potentially lift margins; analysts have responded with price target upgrades, underscoring confidence in the company’s earnings trajectory. Investors should watch the upcoming Q1 2027 earnings release for guidance on the pace of cost‑control progress, the adoption rate of the new digital platform, and any updates on fuel hedging strategies, as these factors will be key to assessing whether FedEx can sustain its recent earnings momentum amid sector headwinds.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$3.21$4.08$4.96$5.84$6.71Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$4.41 - -
Q4'26$5.95$6.31+6.0%
Q3'26$4.16$5.25+26.1%
Q2'26$4.02$4.82+19.9%
Q4'25$4.11$4.82+17.2%
Q3'25$3.61$3.83+6.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$21.8B$22.7B$23.6B$24.5B$25.4BQ3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$22.3B - -
Q4'26$24.3B$25.0B+3.0%
Q3'26$23.7B$24.0B+1.5%
Q2'26$23.4B$23.5B+0.3%
Q4'25 - $23.5B -
Q3'25 - $22.2B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

FDX Stock Snapshot

SELL32/100
$303.37−$0.18 (0.1%)
Market cap
71.83B
P/E ratio
16.2
Day range
$301.99 – $310.35
News sentiment
47/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$355.10 (+17.1%)
Consensus
Buy · 36 analysts
52-week range+71.2% off low · -12.2% from high
$177.17$345.61
Price $303.37 DailyIQ Est. $377.72

Momentum has rolled over on FedEx Corporation, which is what drives the bearish read. In Industrials, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into FDX?

CHEAP

At today's price, FedEx Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about -1.0% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 7.96% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 13.8% a year, so the market is asking for 14.9 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis FDX looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-1.0%
Historical FCF CAGR
13.8%
Growth gap
-14.9 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
7.96%
Beta
0.93

Behaviour On Record

What FDX's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
22.0% 42nd pct
Below its peak
-10.4%
vs 200-day average
+2.8%
Up days (1y)
53%

FedEx Corporation is currently running 22.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against FDX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 42nd percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 24.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

FDX is trading -10.4% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -27.0%, and the deepest was -46.0% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +2.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 48th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year FDX closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, FDX finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -0.4% and an average of -2.6%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +6.0% on average, its weakest December at -3.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: FDX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 50 of 3,267 sessions (1.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.7% and -9.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, FDX moved an average of 5.0% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +0.7% and a largest of -7.6%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against FDX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of FDX's sector?

FedEx Corporation sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#11 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
30

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for FDX?

CallsPuts

For FedEx Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 6 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.26), with at-the-money implied volatility around 42.1%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.1% move by that expiry — a range of about $285.11–$315.79.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.26
ATM implied volatility
42.1%
Total open interest
2,992
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±5.1% ($285.11–$315.79)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on FDX?

Evercore ISI Group most recently reiterated its rating on FedEx Corporation to In-Line on Sep 9, 2026 with a price target of $350 (from $323). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Evercore ISI Group — In-Line
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 9, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedIn-Line$323 → $350
Sep 8, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$460 → $400
Jul 15, 2026CitizensInitiatedMarket Outperform$375
Jun 25, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$425 → $365
Jun 24, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$357 → $359
Jun 24, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$376 → $378
Jun 24, 2026StifelMaintainedBuy$442 → $326
Jun 24, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$445 → $350
Jun 17, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$450 → $425
Jun 12, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$450 → $425
Jun 3, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedUnderweight$230 → $160
Jun 2, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$440 → $376

FDX Competitive Positioning

FedEx Corporation (FDX) is tracked alongside these names in Integrated Freight & Logistics on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

FDX is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.