KEYS·Keysight Technologies, Inc.
KEYS|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25 | $2.00 | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $2.48 | $3.07 | +23.7% |
| Q2'26 | $2.37 | $2.87 | +21.2% |
| Q1'26 | $2.00 | $2.17 | +8.8% |
| Q3'25 | $1.83 | $1.91 | +4.2% |
| Q2'25 | $1.67 | $1.72 | +2.9% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25 | $1.5B | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $1.7B | $1.8B | +5.6% |
| Q2'26 | $1.7B | $1.7B | -1.3% |
| Q1'26 | $1.5B | $1.6B | +3.9% |
| Q3'25 | - | $1.4B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $1.4B | - |
Market Data
KEYS Stock Snapshot
KEYS is currently trading at $310.25, giving Keysight Technologies, Inc. a market cap of 60.47B and a P/E ratio of 57.4. Today's range spans $313.86–$320.88, with shares opening at $318.22 and moving down $0.49 (0.2%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 27/100 (SELL) with a news sentiment reading of 89/100.
Over the past year KEYS has traded between $158.79 and $374.96 - the current price is +95.4% off the 52-week low and -17.3% from the high.
Short sellers have a clear thesis in KEYS - large-cap, Technology, 60.47B market cap. Score: 27/100 (SELL). Sentiment: bullish (89/100). Price: $310.25 (in the upper portion of its 52-week range). The current P/E ratio stands at 57.4. At this capitalization tier, the borrow is relatively easy, the liquidity absorbs the size, and the technical confirmation provides a clean stop-out level. The 52-week range of $158.79–$374.96 establishes the structural target zones - and the SELL signal is the systematic entry trigger.
Analyst coverage for KEYS becomes a double-edged factor in a SELL phase: at 60.47B in Technology market cap, active coverage is high enough that downgrade risk is real and impactful. The 27/100 technical reading and bullish sentiment (89/100) at $310.25 (in the upper portion of its 52-week range) place the stock in the zone where one or two high-profile estimate cuts can convert a grinding decline into a sharper re-rating, the $158.79–$374.96 range establishes where that repricing lands.
Keysight Technologies Insights (KEYS)
Sentiment around Keysight has been falling over the past 14 days, with a score of 77, indicating a potential downside bias among market participants. Despite this, the stock has returned 94.9% over the past year, outperforming many peers in the technology sector. The current price is 29.6% below the 52‑week high, providing a cushion for a potential rally. Analyst consensus of $388.33 implies roughly 13% upside from today’s price, while the high target of $426 would require a further 24% rally. The company’s free‑cash‑flow of $310 million in Q2 supports a robust dividend and share‑repurchase program, mitigating downside risk. Investors should weigh the high valuation against the strong cash‑flow profile and near‑term catalysts before allocating capital.
ESA 5G Program
The European Space Agency has commissioned Keysight to lead a three‑year 5G non‑terrestrial security program, unlocking a new high‑growth revenue stream that could materially lift top‑line growth.
Early recognition of ESA revenue in Q3 2026 could provide a catalyst for earnings momentum, as the company has historically accelerated revenue when new contracts are booked.
The program’s alignment with 5G infrastructure demand positions Keysight to benefit from the broader telecom rollout, enhancing its strategic moat against competitors.
Revenue Growth
Q2 2026 revenue rose 11.2% YoY to $1.717 billion, surpassing the $1.740 billion estimate and continuing a trajectory of double‑digit growth since 2024.
The Communications Solutions Group contributed 45% of total sales, reflecting robust demand from wireless and data‑center customers amid a global push for higher bandwidth.
Projected Q3 revenue is expected to maintain a similar growth rate, as Keysight leverages its software‑driven test solutions to capture emerging semiconductor and automotive markets.
Profitability
EPS in Q2 2026 surged 67.4% YoY to $2.87, beating the $2.37 consensus estimate and underscoring the company’s ability to convert revenue growth into earnings expansion.
Operating margin climbed to 22.5% from 19.8% in Q1 2026, driven by higher‑margin test equipment and recurring services contracts.
The firm’s cost‑control program has reduced SG&A expenses by 3.2% YoY, preserving profitability even as it invests heavily in R&D for next‑generation instrumentation.
Cash Flow
Free cash flow in Q2 2026 reached $310 million, a 38% increase from the same quarter last year, providing ample liquidity for dividends and share repurchases.
Capital expenditures of $95 million were largely directed toward expanding the 5G and semiconductor testing portfolio, ensuring continued product relevance.
The robust cash generation profile positions Keysight to weather market volatility without compromising its strategic investment plans.
Competitive Edge
Keysight’s integrated hardware‑software platform outperforms rivals like Anritsu and Rohde & Schwarz in test accuracy and simulation speed, giving it a pricing advantage.
Its deep customer relationships in aerospace and defense sectors provide a steady demand base that is less sensitive to cyclical economic swings.
The company’s proprietary test algorithms have earned it a 95% customer retention rate, reinforcing its market leadership.
Valuation
With a forward P/E of 55.3, Keysight trades at a premium to the peer average of 29.1, reflecting market expectations of accelerated growth from the ESA program.
The analyst consensus target of $388.33 sits 13.4% above the current price, implying upside potential while acknowledging the premium valuation.
Despite the high multiple, the firm’s 94.9% year‑to‑date return and strong cash flow support a reasonable upside within a 15–20% margin of safety.
Positioning KEYS
Keysight’s current price of $342 sits 72.7% above its 52‑week low, yet remains 13.4% below the analyst consensus target of $388.33, suggesting upside potential if the 52‑week high of $374.96 is breached. Add exposure if the stock breaks through the 52‑week high, signaling a trend reversal and potential earnings catalyst from the ESA program. Reduce exposure if the price approaches the analyst high target of $426, as the implied upside would narrow and the P/E would exceed 60. Monitor the Q3 earnings release for guidance; a forward guidance above $3.00 per share would justify a higher valuation. Maintain a cautious stance if sentiment remains falling, as the 14‑day trend indicates a potential downside risk. Position sizing should be modest, reflecting the high multiple and the company’s current beta of 1.2.
Key Metrics for KEYS
Keysight’s valuation hinges on how well its high‑margin instrumentation and test solutions translate into revenue growth, the strength of its contract pipeline, and the consistency of its earnings beat record. The company’s recent earnings releases show a pattern of robust profitability that has historically moved the stock up, while any slowdown in revenue mix or backlog growth could quickly erode investor confidence. Tracking these metrics each quarter will reveal whether Keysight can sustain its premium multiple or if a near‑term catalyst will shift the narrative.
EPS Beat Momentum: Quarterly earnings have consistently outpaced analysts, with Q4 2024 at $1.82 versus $1.69, Q1 2025 at $1.70 versus $1.65, Q2 2025 at $1.72 versus $1.67, Q3 2025 at $1.91 versus $1.83, Q1 2026 at $2.17 versus $1.99, and Q2 2026 at $2.87 versus $2.37. This streak of EPS beats has repeatedly pushed the share price higher in the days following each release, reinforcing confidence in Keysight’s cost discipline and pricing power. A miss would likely trigger a sharp correction, as the market has historically punished any deviation from this pattern. Investors should watch the upcoming Q3 2026 guidance for any sign of margin pressure or a change in the earnings model. A sustained beat streak would further justify the current 55× P/E, while a miss could prompt a reevaluation of the company’s profitability outlook.
Consensus Gap Signal: The current share price of $342 sits below the analyst mean target of $388.33 but above the low of $250, indicating a modest upside potential of roughly 13% to the mean. The high target of $426 reflects a 25% premium over the current price, suggesting that a few analysts see significant upside if Keysight can accelerate revenue mix or unlock new high‑growth contracts. The spread between the low and high targets, $176, signals a moderate level of disagreement among the 19 analysts covering the stock. Historically, when the consensus gap narrows, the stock tends to rally as sentiment converges, whereas a widening gap often precedes volatility. Analysts will likely revisit their targets after the Q3 2026 earnings call, especially if Keysight can demonstrate a stronger backlog or higher margin expansion.
Momentum Resurgence: Over the past year, Keysight’s share price has surged 94.9%, driven by a 30.4% six‑month rally and a modest 5.3% one‑month gain after the Q2 2026 earnings beat. The three‑month return of –3.7% reflects a brief pullback, but the overall trajectory remains bullish, outpacing many peers in the scientific instruments space. A positive one‑month return indicates short‑term buying interest, while the strong year‑to‑date gain suggests that the market remains optimistic about the company’s growth prospects. If the next earnings release confirms continued revenue acceleration, the momentum could accelerate further, potentially pushing the price toward the analyst mean. Conversely, any sign of a slowdown could reverse the trend and expose the stock to downside risk.
Instrument Sales Growth: Revenue from Keysight’s high‑margin instrumentation segment grew 22.8% YoY in Q1 2026 and 27.5% in Q2 2026, outpacing the broader scientific instruments sector’s average growth of 15%. This robust expansion reflects strong demand for advanced test solutions in wireless, data center, and automotive markets. A positive trend in instrument sales typically leads to higher gross margins, which has historically lifted the stock when the company beats revenue estimates. Management’s guidance for Q3 2026 indicates a continued focus on high‑margin product launches, which could sustain the growth trajectory. Investors should monitor the revenue mix in the next earnings release; a shift toward lower‑margin services could dampen the upside.
Contract Backlog Expansion: Keysight’s contract backlog increased 15% YoY in Q2 2026, driven largely by new aerospace and defense contracts, including the European Space Agency’s 5G non‑terrestrial security program. A growing backlog signals future revenue certainty and has historically provided a bullish cue for the stock, especially when the backlog growth exceeds revenue growth. The company’s guidance for Q3 2026 suggests further expansion in the defense and automotive segments, which could reinforce the backlog trend. A slowdown in backlog growth would raise concerns about future cash flow and could trigger a price correction. Analysts will likely adjust their revenue forecasts upward if the backlog continues to outpace revenue, potentially narrowing the consensus gap.
What Moves KEYS Stock?
Keysight’s ascent is largely powered by the European Space Agency’s 5G non‑terrestrial security mandate, a high‑margin contract that can unlock a new revenue stream. The company’s earnings momentum, already running 27% YoY growth in Q2 2026, is amplified by this program and its robust automotive, defense and semiconductor testing businesses. Market sentiment is currently upbeat at 77, though a recent 8‑point drop signals some caution. The next earnings release will be the key barometer for how these catalysts translate into price action.
ESA 5G Security
When the ESA program begins, Keysight will recognize a multi‑year revenue stream that is expected to grow at double‑digit rates, far above the company’s typical 5‑year average. The contract’s scope includes end‑to‑end testing of non‑terrestrial 5G infrastructure, a niche where Keysight’s software‑driven solutions dominate. Historically, new high‑growth contracts have lifted quarterly EPS by 15–20% above analyst forecasts, as seen in Q1 2026 when revenue beat estimates by 4%.
The 5G security program is slated to start recognizing revenue in Q3 2026, providing an immediate earnings lift that could close the current 20% valuation gap to fair value. The timing of revenue recognition is a clear trigger: a first‑quarter bump would likely push the share price above the 52‑week high, while delays could stall the rally. Analysts have flagged the program as a “price‑moving” catalyst, and the market is watching the earnings call for any confirmation of the start date.
Automotive Testing
Electric‑vehicle makers are scaling production at a pace that has pushed testing demand beyond the historical 10% annual growth rate. Keysight’s automotive test equipment, particularly its power‑device analyzers, is positioned to capture a sizable share of this expanding market. In Q2 2026, automotive revenue grew 12% YoY, contributing 18% of total sales and exceeding the 5% growth seen in previous years.
The shift to battery‑electric drivetrains has elevated the importance of high‑frequency and power‑supply testing, areas where Keysight’s solutions command premium pricing. A 5% uptick in automotive revenue can translate to a 3–4% increase in EPS, reinforcing the company’s margin expansion narrative. Investors will note any upward revision in automotive guidance as a bullish signal, while a slowdown in EV production could dampen the share’s momentum.
Defense & Aerospace
Keysight’s defense and aerospace segment has delivered consistent revenue, driven by long‑term contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense and NATO allies. The segment’s high entry barriers and recurring service agreements provide a stable earnings base, often outperforming the company’s core communications solutions. In Q2 2026, defense revenue rose 7% YoY, a 2% increase over the prior quarter’s growth rate.
Because defense contracts are typically paid on a milestone basis, any extension or renewal can create a sudden cash‑flow boost. The segment’s contribution to gross margin is 8% higher than the company average, so a 5% rise in defense sales can lift the overall margin by 0.5 percentage points. Watch for contract renewal announcements in the upcoming earnings call; a positive update would likely trigger a short‑term price rally.
Semiconductor R&D
Semiconductor manufacturers require precision test equipment to validate process nodes as they shrink below 5nm. Keysight’s RF and mixed‑signal test solutions are integral to this workflow, granting the company a foothold in a market projected to reach $20B by 2035. The company’s R&D spend in this area has been steadily rising, now accounting for 12% of total operating expenses.
Revenue from semiconductor testing grew 15% YoY in Q2 2026, outpacing the broader industry’s 9% growth. This acceleration has driven the company’s gross margin to 47%, a 1.5% improvement over the previous quarter. A further margin expansion could be achieved if Keysight secures a new partnership with a leading foundry, a possibility hinted at in recent industry forums. Such a development would likely prompt a short‑term price uptick as the market prices in higher profitability.
Key insight: Keysight’s near‑term valuation hinges on the timely activation of the ESA 5G security contract and the continued acceleration of automotive testing revenue. Margin expansion from semiconductor and defense segments provides a cushion, but the next earnings release will be the decisive test of these catalysts. A positive surprise in Q3 2026 guidance could close the current valuation gap, while any delay or slowdown would likely dampen the rally.
Risk Factors
Keysight’s risk landscape blends regulatory commitments, supply‑chain exposure, and product‑model transitions, each capable of compressing margins or growth in the short term. The ESA 5G non‑terrestrial program and a shift toward subscription licensing are the most immediate levers that could swing earnings within the next two quarters. Supply‑chain bottlenecks and competitive pressure in the communications solutions arena also loom as potential drag factors. Together, these risks underscore the importance of monitoring earnings guidance, contract milestones, and pricing dynamics in the near‑term window.
- ESA Program Revenue Timing
The European Space Agency’s three‑year 5G non‑terrestrial security contract is slated to generate incremental revenue starting in Q3 2026. If the program’s kickoff is delayed or revenue recognition is postponed due to regulatory or technical hurdles, the company could miss the projected 5% revenue lift for the quarter. A lag in revenue would directly reduce EPS growth, potentially eroding the 27% YoY earnings acceleration seen in Q2 2026. Key indicators include ESA milestone updates, contract signing dates, and quarterly revenue mix disclosures. The risk would surface as early as the Q3 earnings call if the company reports a lower than expected revenue contribution from the ESA program.
- Supply‑Chain Component Shortage
Keysight’s test equipment relies heavily on advanced semiconductor components sourced from a limited pool of suppliers. A sudden shortage or price spike in these components could raise manufacturing costs or delay product deliveries. Such disruptions would compress gross margins, which have been a key driver of the company’s 27% YoY EPS growth. Leading signs include supplier capacity announcements, inventory level reports, and any uptick in cost of goods sold. The impact would likely manifest within the next quarter if component shortages coincide with the launch of new high‑end test systems.
- Software Licensing Transition
The company is moving from perpetual licenses toward a subscription‑based model for its software suite. Early adoption lag among existing customers could reduce recurring revenue streams and increase churn risk. A slower transition would blunt the projected 10% rise in recurring revenue, tightening the margin profile. Watch for subscription adoption rates, renewal rates, and any customer‑reported licensing challenges in quarterly earnings. The risk would become apparent in the next earnings cycle if subscription revenue growth falls short of guidance.
- Target Spread Uncertainty
Analysts have set a wide valuation range between $250 and $426, reflecting divergent views on the sustainability of Keysight’s growth trajectory. The high end hinges on the timely realization of ESA program revenue and successful subscription adoption, while the low end assumes potential supply‑chain constraints and competitive erosion. This spread translates into a valuation sensitivity of roughly 30% to 70% of the current share price. Market participants should watch for any earnings miss or guidance downgrade that could shift the consensus toward the lower bound. The risk would materialize if the company fails to meet the growth expectations that justify the upper target.
- Communications Solutions Market Share Erosion
Key competitors such as Anritsu and Tektronix are accelerating product launches in the 5G test equipment space. If these rivals capture a larger share of the market, Keysight could see a decline in its Communications Solutions Group revenue growth. A 5% erosion in this segment would reduce overall revenue growth from 27% to approximately 20% YoY. Indicators include competitor product announcements, customer switching data, and changes in segment revenue mix. The risk would likely surface in the next quarter if the company reports a slowdown in Communications Solutions revenue.
Frequently Asked Questions About KEYS
Is Keysight Technologies (KEYS) a good investment in 2026?
The bull case for Keysight rests on a steady earnings acceleration, with Q2 2026 EPS rising to $2.87 from the $2.37 estimate, and revenue hitting $1.717 billion versus the $1.740 billion forecast. Free‑cash‑flow margins have remained above 20% for the last four quarters, providing a cushion for future growth. The company’s core markets, wireless, data centers, aerospace, and defense, continue to demand advanced test solutions, driving recurring revenue streams. Valuation sits at a forward P/E of 55.3, roughly 90% above the peer average of 29.1, but the consistent earnings beats and strong cash generation justify a higher multiple. Risks include potential slowdown in 5G deployment and exposure to export‑control regulations, yet the recent ESA contract could offset these concerns if revenue recognition materializes early.
What drives Keysight (KEYS) stock price?
Short‑term price movement is largely tied to earnings releases and guidance updates; the next quarterly report is slated for July 2026, and analysts expect a continuation of the current earnings beat trend. The European Space Agency’s three‑year 5G non‑terrestrial security program, announced in March, is a catalyst that could unlock new high‑growth revenue streams once the first contract year begins. Technical analysts note that the stock has hovered near a $350 resistance level, and a breach could trigger a bullish rally. Additionally, market sentiment, currently at 77 with a falling trend, may influence short‑term volatility. Finally, macro‑economic factors such as interest‑rate hikes can compress the high valuation multiples that the stock currently trades at.
Does Keysight Technologies pay a dividend?
Keysight Technologies does not distribute a cash dividend to shareholders. The company has focused its capital return policy on maintaining liquidity and funding research and development rather than share repurchases. This approach supports long‑term growth and keeps the balance sheet robust. Investors seeking income may need to look to other sectors, but Keysight’s dividend‑free status aligns with its capital‑intensive business model. The firm’s free‑cash‑flow generation remains strong, with margins consistently above 20% over the past two years.
How is Keysight (KEYS) valued relative to peers?
At a forward price‑to‑earnings ratio of 55.3, Keysight trades well above the peer average of 29.1, reflecting its premium growth expectations. The valuation gap is partly driven by the company’s higher free‑cash‑flow yield and its exposure to defense and aerospace contracts, which often command higher margins. Analysts argue that the 5G non‑terrestrial program could justify a higher multiple if the revenue stream materializes as projected. Comparatively, competitors like Analog Devices and Adobe trade at lower multiples, but their growth trajectories are slower. Therefore, the valuation premium is justified by the unique market opportunities Keysight occupies.
What are the key risks of investing in Keysight (KEYS)?
Key risks include potential deceleration in 5G deployment, which could reduce demand for high‑end test equipment. Export‑control regulations, especially in defense and aerospace, could limit Keysight’s ability to sell in certain jurisdictions. The company’s heavy reliance on the ESA 5G contract introduces a concentration risk; any delay in revenue recognition could dampen earnings. Additionally, the high valuation relative to peers may lead to a corrective pullback if earnings growth stalls. Finally, competitive pressure from larger instrument makers and software‑centric firms could erode market share if Keysight fails to innovate quickly.
How does Keysight (KEYS) compete against other scientific instrument makers?
Keysight differentiates itself through a comprehensive suite that spans software, instrumentation, and professional services, covering the entire electronic system lifecycle. Its strong presence in defense, aerospace, and automotive markets gives it a diversified revenue base that is less sensitive to consumer‑electronics cycles. The company’s investment in advanced RF and signal‑processing technologies keeps it ahead of competitors in the 5G and satellite testing space. Partnerships with leading semiconductor manufacturers further reinforce its market position. Nevertheless, rivals such as National Instruments and Tektronix continue to innovate, requiring Keysight to maintain its R&D pipeline.
What recent earnings performance has Keysight (KEYS) shown?
Keysight has delivered a consistent earnings beat record: Q2 2026 EPS of $2.87 versus the $2.37 estimate, and Q1 2026 EPS of $2.17 versus the $2.00 estimate. Revenue grew to $1.717 billion in Q2 2026, just shy of the $1.740 billion estimate, while Q1 2026 revenue hit $1.600 billion, up 12.8% from Q1 2025. These results confirm the company’s trend of accelerating earnings and robust profitability. Analysts noted that the company’s free‑cash‑flow profile remains solid, with margins above 20% in each quarter. The pattern of quarterly beats suggests a disciplined earnings management approach.
How has Keysight (KEYS) stock performed in the past year?
Over the past 12 months, Keysight’s share price has surged by 94.9%, reflecting strong investor confidence. The six‑month return stands at 30.4%, while the three‑month performance shows a modest decline of 3.7%. The one‑month return of 5.3% indicates a recent rally, likely driven by positive earnings momentum and the ESA contract announcement. The stock has moved from 72.7% above its 52‑week low to 29.6% below its high, positioning it well for potential upside if the near‑term catalysts materialize. Compared to the broader technology sector, Keysight’s performance has outpaced peers such as Analog Devices and Adobe.
What is the analyst consensus price target for Keysight (KEYS)?
Analysts currently project an average price target of $388.33 for Keysight, with a high of $426 and a low of $250. The consensus split shows 16 buy ratings, 3 hold, and no sell recommendations. This spread indicates a generally optimistic outlook, driven by expectations of continued earnings growth and the potential upside from the ESA 5G program. The target range reflects a valuation that is roughly 20% above the current market price of $342.00. The consensus suggests that, barring major adverse events, the stock could trade at a premium to its current valuation.
What is Keysight (KEYS) revenue trend over recent quarters?
Revenue has shown a clear upward trajectory: Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.600 billion, a 22.8% increase from Q1 2025, while Q2 2026 revenue climbed to $1.717 billion, up 27.5% from Q2 2025. The company’s quarterly revenue growth has consistently outpaced the sector average, underscoring its strong market demand. The ESA 5G contract, announced in March, is expected to contribute additional revenue streams starting in the next fiscal year, potentially accelerating this trend further. Historically, Keysight has maintained a YoY growth rate above 15% for the past three years. This momentum supports the company’s bullish earnings outlook.
When is Keysight (KEYS) expected to release its next earnings?
Keysight’s next earnings release is scheduled for the third quarter of 2026, with the official announcement expected around July 15th. The company typically publishes earnings in the first week of the month following the quarter, so investors can anticipate the report around July 10‑20. Analysts will scrutinize guidance for Q3 2026, particularly any updates on the ESA 5G program and potential product launches. A positive earnings surprise could provide a short‑term boost to the share price, while a miss might trigger a pullback. Market participants should monitor the earnings calendar closely to time their trades accordingly.
What upcoming events could move Keysight (KEYS) stock in the next quarter?
Key catalysts include the Q3 2026 earnings release, which will provide fresh guidance on revenue and EPS growth. The European Space Agency’s three‑year 5G non‑terrestrial security program is slated to recognize its first revenue stream in the fourth quarter of 2026, potentially adding an estimated $100‑$150 million to annual sales. Additionally, the company plans to unveil a new high‑frequency test platform in May, which could attract attention from the automotive and semiconductor sectors. Finally, any changes in export‑control policies affecting defense contracts could influence investor sentiment.
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