GWRE·Guidewire Software Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

62.9% 96th pct

Below its peak

-37.7%

vs 200-day average

+8.1%

Up days (1y)

49%

Guidewire Software Inc. is currently running 62.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against GWRE's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 96th percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 30.3%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

GWRE is trading -37.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -26.0%, and the deepest was -53.5% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +8.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 54th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year GWRE closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, GWRE finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +0.8% and an average of +1.5%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +5.3% on average, its weakest December at -2.7%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: GWRE has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 162 of 3,267 sessions (5.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.1% and -9.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against GWRE's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.