IBM·International Business Machines Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

25.7% 73rd pct

Below its peak

-28.3%

vs 200-day average

-8.3%

Up days (1y)

51%

International Business Machines Corporation is currently running 25.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against IBM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 73rd percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 19.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

IBM is trading -28.3% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -21.8%, and the deepest was -39.6% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -8.3% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 19th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year IBM closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, IBM finished the month higher 5 of 14 times, with a median return of -2.5% and an average of -3.2%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +3.3% on average, its weakest October at -3.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: IBM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 29 of 3,268 sessions (0.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.1% and -6.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, IBM moved an average of 1.4% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -1.2% and a largest of -2.4%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against IBM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.