HBM·Hudbay Minerals Inc. Ordinary Shares (Canada)

Realized volatility (21d)

50.1% 39th pct

Below its peak

-14.9%

vs 200-day average

+11.1%

Up days (1y)

54%

Hudbay Minerals Inc. Ordinary Shares (Canada) is currently running 50.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against HBM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 39th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 55.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

HBM is trading -14.9% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -53.3%, and the deepest was -68.1% in 2015. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +11.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 62nd percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year HBM closed higher on 54% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, HBM finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.3% and an average of +2.4%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +7.2% on average, its weakest March at -2.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: HBM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 685 of 3,267 sessions (21.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.1% and -11.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against HBM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.