HBM·Hudbay Minerals Inc. Ordinary Shares (Canada)

Realized volatility (21d)

39.8% 15th pct

Below its peak

-24.3%

vs 200-day average

-2.1%

Up days (1y)

53%

Hudbay Minerals Inc. Ordinary Shares (Canada) is currently running 39.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against HBM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 15th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 55.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

HBM is trading -24.3% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -53.3%, and the deepest was -68.1% in 2015. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -2.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 41st percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year HBM closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, HBM finished the month higher 7 of 14 times, with a median return of +0.7% and an average of +1.5%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +7.2% on average, its weakest March at -2.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: HBM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 689 of 3,268 sessions (21.1% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.1% and -11.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against HBM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.