HRL·Hormel Foods Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

16.2% 24th pct

Below its peak

-63.3%

vs 200-day average

-13.4%

Up days (1y)

45%

Hormel Foods Corporation is currently running 16.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against HRL's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 24th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 19.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

HRL is trading -63.3% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -18.9%, and the deepest was -34.8% in 2023. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -13.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 7th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year HRL closed higher on 45% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, HRL finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +1.0% and an average of -0.5%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +2.5% on average, its weakest April at -1.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: HRL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 74 of 3,267 sessions (2.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +8.5% and -9.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against HRL's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.