DailyIQ
Last updated2 minutes ago

CAG·Conagra Brands, Inc.

$15.12
-0.06 (-0.40%)
Overnight$15.13+0.01 (+0.07%)
High
$15.26
Open
$15.07
Market Cap
7.19B
52W High
$20.32
Low
$14.96
P. Close
$15.12
P/E
-
52W Low
$12.53
Fwd P/E
9.78
DailyIQ Est.
$12.68
Inst. Ownership
53.6%
Short Interest
9.86%
Days to Cover
4.7
Technical Score (1D)
36
SELL
News Sentiment
53
MIXED
Deutsche Bank has just lifted its price target for Conagra Brands from $12 to $13, a modest 8 % bump that signals a slight uptick in confidence about the company’s near‑term earnings. The upgrade comes while the bank keeps a hold rating, indicating it does not see a dramatic shift in risk profile. The price‑target lift suggests that analysts expect incremental revenue or margin improvement in the next quarter, likely driven by the firm’s ongoing menu innovation and cost‑control initiatives. For traders, this could translate into a short‑term upward bias as the market digests the new target, especially if Conagra’s earnings guidance remains unchanged. The change is unlikely to trigger a large swing on its own, but it does reinforce a narrative that the company’s fundamentals are steady and that there is room for modest upside. Watch for the upcoming earnings release in the next few trading days to see whether the company can deliver the earnings growth that prompted the target increase. Also keep an eye on any updates to the company’s cost‑management plans or supply‑chain adjustments, as these could materially affect the near‑term outlook. Finally, monitor broader market sentiment around the food‑processing sector, as a shift in risk appetite could amplify or dampen the impact of this modest target lift.
Earnings Summary
Conagra Brands, a leading consumer packaged goods company headquartered in Chicago, specializes in shelf‑stable, refrigerated, and frozen food products distributed across U.S. retail and foodservice channels, leveraging well‑known brands such as Birds Eye and Slim Jim. Operating within the consumer defensive sector, Conagra benefits from steady demand for packaged foods while navigating cost pressures and shifting consumer preferences. In the most recent two quarters, Q3 2026 revenue fell to $2.7878 billion from $2.8677 billion in Q3 2025, a 3.2% decline, while EPS dipped to $0.39 from $0.4717, a 17% drop; conversely, Q4 2025 revenue rose to $2.9791 billion from $2.8416 billion in Q4 2024, and EPS increased to $0.45 from $0.4361, indicating a modest acceleration. Across the last four quarters, Conagra has consistently beat revenue estimates in three quarters (Q3 2025, Q4 2025, Q2 2026) but missed EPS in two (Q3 2026, Q1 2027 forecasted). Historically, the company has shown a YoY revenue growth trajectory that has slowed in recent years, with a 2.9% decline in 2025 and a 10.2% drop in gross profit due to impairment charges, yet it has maintained operating margin resilience. The pattern of revenue beats coupled with EPS misses suggests that while sales remain relatively stable, profitability is under pressure from cost and impairment factors. Recent news highlights Deutsche Bank’s modest price‑target lift to $13, reflecting confidence in incremental revenue or margin improvement driven by menu innovation and cost‑control initiatives, and Conagra’s launch of GLP‑1 friendly labels that have produced a modest sales lift amid broader demand challenges; these developments underscore the company’s focus on product differentiation and cost management. Investors should watch for the Q1 2027 earnings release to assess whether the GLP‑1 labeling, cost‑control measures, and dividend adjustment translate into sustained revenue and margin improvement, and monitor any updates to supply‑chain investments that could influence cost structures in the near term.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.24$0.33$0.43$0.53$0.63Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$0.28 - -
Q3'26$0.47$0.39-17.3%
Q2'26$0.40$0.45+12.7%
Q4'25$0.44$0.45+3.2%
Q3'25$0.33$0.39+17.4%
Q2'25$0.58$0.56-3.6%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.6B$2.7B$2.8B$2.9B$3.0BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$2.6B - -
Q3'26$2.9B$2.8B-2.8%
Q2'26$2.8B$3.0B+7.9%
Q4'25 - $3.0B -
Q3'25 - $2.6B -
Q2'25 - $2.8B -

Market Data

CAG Stock Snapshot

HOLD36/100
$15.13+$0.01 (0.1%)
Market cap
7.19B
Day range
$14.96 – $15.26
News sentiment
53/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$14.35 (-5.2%)
Consensus
Hold · 26 analysts
52-week range+20.8% off low · -25.5% from high
$12.53$20.32
Price $15.13 DailyIQ Est. $12.68

CAG is in a holding pattern - neither trend nor momentum has taken control. At this size, a single catalyst moves the stock further than it would a larger peer.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into CAG?

CHEAP

At today's price, Conagra Brands, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about -11.2% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.25% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 1.3% a year, so the market is asking for 12.5 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis CAG looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-11.2%
Historical FCF CAGR
1.3%
Growth gap
-12.5 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.25%
Beta
0.37

Behaviour On Record

What CAG's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
22.8% 58th pct
Below its peak
-63.5%
vs 200-day average
-4.2%
Up days (1y)
45%

Conagra Brands, Inc. is currently running 22.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CAG's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 58th percentile close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 21.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CAG is trading -63.5% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -20.8%, and the deepest was -46.2% in 2018. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -4.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 33rd percentile close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year CAG closed higher on 45% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, CAG finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -0.9% and an average of -1.0%. Its strongest month historically has been March at +3.2% on average, its weakest June at -1.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CAG has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 63 of 3,268 sessions (1.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +21.0% and -7.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CAG's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of CAG's sector?

Conagra Brands, Inc. sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 6th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#6 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
60

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for CAG?

CallsPuts

For Conagra Brands, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 6 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 2.20), with at-the-money implied volatility around 39.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.7% move by that expiry — a range of about $14.26–$16.00.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
2.20
ATM implied volatility
39.8%
Total open interest
8,930
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±5.7% ($14.26–$16.00)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on CAG?

Deutsche Bank most recently reiterated its rating on Conagra Brands, Inc. to Hold on Sep 18, 2026 with a price target of $13 (from $12). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Deutsche BankHold
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 18, 2026Deutsche BankMaintainedHold$12 → $13
Sep 14, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedIn-Line$13 → $13
Jul 17, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$16 → $17
Jul 16, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$14 → $15
Jul 16, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$13 → $14
Jul 16, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$16 → $14
Jul 8, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$18 → $16
Jun 25, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$17 → $16
Jun 18, 2026Deutsche BankMaintainedHold$14 → $12
Jun 10, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedIn-Line$18 → $13
Jun 5, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$15 → $13
Jun 5, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$17 → $14

CAG Competitive Positioning

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is tracked alongside these names in Packaged Foods on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.