DailyIQ
Last updated14 minutes ago

CPB·The Campbell's Company

$20.68
-0.49 (-2.31%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$20.76+0.08 (+0.39%)
High
$21.32
Open
$21.30
Market Cap
6.20B
52W High
$34.18
Low
$20.65
P. Close
$20.68
P/E
15.58
52W Low
$19.55
Fwd P/E
11.27
DailyIQ Est.
$16.80
Inst. Ownership
35.5%
Short Interest
13.23%
Days to Cover
6.8
Technical Score (1D)
23
SELL
News Sentiment
40
BEARISH
Campbell’s announced a four‑flavor ready‑to‑use sauce line in early September, aimed at families looking for 20‑minute dinner solutions. The launch comes on the heels of a fiscal Q4 report that showed an 8 % decline in revenue, a US$117 million impairment charge on snack brands, and a 36 % cut in the quarterly dividend to US$0.25 per share. The new sauces are positioned as a convenience play, but the timing against weaker earnings and a tighter cash return dampens immediate upside expectations. Investors will gauge whether the product mix can generate incremental sales enough to offset the recent financial setbacks and support the company’s broader cost‑saving program. The company’s management has outlined a $500 million savings plan that includes plant closures and layoffs, underscoring the need for margin recovery in the next 1–10 trading days. Analysts have downgraded the outlook, citing rising ingredient costs and a flat earnings guidance that remains below market consensus. The Bear of the Day rating from Zacks highlights the risk of further margin compression in the packaged‑foods sector. Watch for the next quarterly guidance on revenue impact from the sauce line and any adjustments to the dividend policy, as these will signal whether the turnaround strategy is gaining traction.
Earnings Summary
Campbell’s Company, a long‑standing player in the packaged foods sector, operates through Meals & Beverages and Snacks segments, delivering well‑known brands such as Campbell’s soups, Goldfish crackers, and Prego sauces across North America and Latin America. The company’s recent earnings show a mixed trajectory: Q4 2024 EPS of $0.74 beat the $0.72 estimate while revenue of $2.685B exceeded the $2.685B estimate, yet Q1 2025 EPS of $0.73 surpassed the $0.66 estimate and revenue of $2.475B fell short of the $2.475B estimate, indicating a slight revenue decline. Q2 2025 EPS of $0.62 beat the $0.57 estimate, but revenue of $2.321B was below the $2.321B estimate, and Q3 2025 EPS of $0.77 beat the $0.73 estimate with revenue of $2.677B matching the $2.677B estimate. The trend shows consistent EPS beats over the last four quarters, while revenue has fluctuated around estimates, with a modest decline in Q1 2025 and a rebound in Q3 2025. Historically, Campbell’s has maintained year‑over‑year revenue growth of roughly 2‑3% in recent years, with EPS growth lagging due to cost pressures; the company has repeatedly beat analyst EPS estimates despite modest revenue dips, reflecting disciplined pricing and cost management. Recent news highlights a continued slide in packaged‑food demand, with RBC noting Meals & Beverages sales below plan and most snack lines under pressure, prompting a 3‑5% price lift that may blunt volume recovery. Analysts have cut price targets and downgraded the stock, citing persistent cost‑control challenges and a lack of measurable lift from recent initiatives. Investors should watch the upcoming Q4 2026 earnings for confirmation of the revenue and margin trajectory, monitor any updates on the equity offering and the performance of new product lines such as Chunky frozen bowls, and assess how the company’s price‑increase strategy translates into sustained profitability amid a weak demand environment.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.33$0.45$0.58$0.70$0.83Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$0.39$0.39+0.7%
Q3'26$0.48$0.50+4.5%
Q2'26$0.57$0.51-10.6%
Q3'25$0.73$0.77+5.0%
Q2'25$0.57$0.62+9.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.1B$2.2B$2.4B$2.6B$2.8BQ2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$2.2B$2.1B-1.4%
Q3'26$2.4B$2.4B-1.6%
Q2'26$2.6B$2.6B-1.8%
Q3'25 - $2.7B -
Q2'25 - $2.3B -

Market Data

CPB Stock Snapshot

SELL23/100
$20.76+$0.08 (0.4%)
Market cap
6.20B
P/E ratio
15.6
Day range
$20.65 – $21.32
News sentiment
40/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$20.79 (+0.1%)
Consensus
Hold · 29 analysts
52-week range+6.2% off low · -39.3% from high
$19.55$34.18
Price $20.76 DailyIQ Est. $16.80

The trend on CPB is bearish, and the indicator set is confirming it rather than diverging. Position sizing matters more than usual in a name this size, where volatility is structural.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into CPB?

CHEAP

At today's price, The Campbell's Company needs to grow free cash flow about -8.3% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.00% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 1.2% a year, so the market is asking for 9.5 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis CPB looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-8.3%
Historical FCF CAGR
1.2%
Growth gap
-9.5 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.00%
Beta
0.40

Behaviour On Record

What CPB's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
35.4% 89th pct
Below its peak
-69.4%
vs 200-day average
-12.9%
Up days (1y)
49%

The Campbell's Company is currently running 35.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CPB's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 89th percentile elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 20.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CPB is trading -69.4% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.6%, and the deepest was -35.2% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -12.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 16th percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year CPB closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, CPB finished the month higher 5 of 13 times, with a median return of -4.1% and an average of -2.3%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +1.5% on average, its weakest September at -2.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CPB has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 49 of 3,267 sessions (1.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +8.6% and -6.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, CPB moved an average of 4.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -3.4% and a largest of -6.3%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CPB's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of CPB's sector?

The Campbell's Company sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 6th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#6 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
60

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for CPB?

CallsPuts

For The Campbell's Company's nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 5 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.79), with at-the-money implied volatility around 46.9%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.7% move by that expiry — a range of about $20.20–$22.66.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.79
ATM implied volatility
46.9%
Total open interest
3,626
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±5.7% ($20.20–$22.66)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on CPB?

Evercore ISI Group most recently reiterated its rating on The Campbell's Company to In-Line on Sep 14, 2026 with a price target of $21 (from $22). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Evercore ISI GroupIn-Line
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 14, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedIn-Line$22 → $21
Sep 8, 2026DA DavidsonMaintainedNeutral$20
Sep 4, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$21 → $19
Sep 4, 2026UBSMaintainedSell$18 → $19
Sep 4, 2026BarclaysMaintainedUnderweight$19 → $18
Sep 4, 2026JefferiesMaintainedHold$22 → $20
Aug 31, 2026RBC CapitalReiteratedSector Perform$21
Aug 31, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedIn-Line$23 → $22
Aug 20, 2026UBSMaintainedSell$17 → $18
Aug 19, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$20 → $22
Aug 18, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$20 → $22
Jul 22, 2026StifelMaintainedHold$20 → $22

CPB Competitive Positioning

The Campbell's Company (CPB) is tracked alongside these names in Packaged Foods on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.